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Raise this river for value??

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09-26-2014 , 09:37 PM

Ellzebub

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 207

Typical loose passive opponent. Whats the best play on the river. Raise and fold to a shove or flat call?

Poker Stars, $28.78 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #31053441

Hero (SB): 1,570 (78.5 bb)
BB: 1,430 (71.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K

Hero raises to 40, BB calls 20

Flop: (80) 2

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 40, BB calls 40

Turn: (160) Q

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 100, BB calls 100

River: (360) 9

(2 players)
BB bets 180

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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09-27-2014 , 07:13 AM

spartan1

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 761

Trying to get my head around what hand does this.

Any other reads, looks like it's early in the match.

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09-27-2014 , 10:34 AM

casinomonkey

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 68

J9 or a missed fd. Leaning toward J9 coz you posted it. I flat, but I'm a coward. LP, so could easily have the deuce of hearts. You don't often have a 2 here, so it shouldn't be a big concern for him. Does he value bet river thin? If he's that LP, careful of the boats while wading. If he's L1 LP, K2 is a thin call, but he has to be thinking you rarely have a 2.

Last edited by casinomonkey; 09-27-2014 at 10:41 AM.

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09-27-2014 , 10:53 AM

kobmish

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,752

I have to say, I am not sure how much population value bets 3 pair. They may slowplay sometimes....

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09-27-2014 , 10:58 AM

2Plus2=5

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 63

Why does the BB have to act first?

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09-27-2014 , 11:46 AM

Ellzebub

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 207

Quote:

Originally Posted by spartan1

Trying to get my head around what hand does this.

Any other reads, looks like it's early in the match.

Just pulled up villains stats and it was literally 10 hands in to the match. Villain had limped every hand and flatted 100% oop. From the small sample I got the general sense that he was loose passive.

Thats all I got

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09-27-2014 , 11:49 AM

restorativejustice

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 2,753

Unless he is terrible or has J9, I don't what calls your re-raise that you have beat.

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09-27-2014 , 11:57 AM

Ellzebub

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 207

I would of thought the typical fish is calling a re/rse with any paired Q or J, most players are pretty bad at this limit.

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09-27-2014 , 12:29 PM

casinomonkey

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 68

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Plus2=5

Why does the BB have to act first?

Coz HU poker is brutal. Lol.

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09-27-2014 , 12:33 PM

#10

casinomonkey

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 68

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ellzebub

I would of thought the typical fish is calling a re/rse with any paired Q or J, most players are pretty bad at this limit.

Possibly true, but how often is a LP value betting that river thin after two barrels?

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09-27-2014 , 09:39 PM

#11

I_LI_Jl

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 530

Easy re-raise/fold vs passive villain.

As for what he could have, Q/J/2 for some questionable value or largish blocker all seem possible. And I'm not convinced villain who seems passive/fishy (even if it's over a small sample) will fold any of those to a raise.

Last edited by I_LI_Jl; 09-27-2014 at 09:50 PM.

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09-28-2014 , 11:20 AM

#12

Ellzebub

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 207

Quote:

Originally Posted by I_LI_Jl

This is what seems to make the most sense to me also in this spot. I feel like If I flat I miss value far to often, and if villain comes over the top I can be fairly certain I'm beat and make an easy fold.

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09-28-2014 , 12:49 PM

#13

watergun7

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 2,796

Easiest raise otr imo. We even block KT. It depends a lot whether he has J2o Q2o in his range tho.

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09-28-2014 , 01:48 PM

#14

Ellzebub

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 207

Quote:

Originally Posted by watergun7

Easiest raise otr imo. We even block KT. It depends a lot whether he has J2o Q2o in his range tho.

Thanks.

Are you calling it off if villain jams?

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09-28-2014 , 03:41 PM

#15

watergun7

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 2,796

I don't think it matters much if we call or fold vs villain's shove and I have no idea if we have enough reads tilt that decision one way or another.

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09-28-2014 , 07:37 PM

#16

Ellzebub

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 207

Yeah I'm lost on how to even begin to analyze the situation. Although there are far fewer made str8's and boats in his range than pairs I cant see the average passive opponent re raising the river with anything but those specific hands. Which is what lead me to thinking a raise fold decision would be best.

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09-29-2014 , 12:02 AM

#17

spartan1

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 761

Villain plays this river perfectly against a raise.
Jams his nutted hands FH, str8s and some worse 2x, folds air or one pair hands.
If you're going to raise the river, i'd just jam it allowing his J9 to call it off.

I don't think he is on a level to think your riv bet is a bet fold spot and bluff raise you, according to the stats you gave us readers.

Last edited by spartan1; 09-29-2014 at 12:03 AM. Reason: cos

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09-30-2014 , 01:56 AM

#18

7betshove

banned

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 171

what spartan said, arent we making it way too easy for villain on the river if we bet fold?
if we call, the hands ends there and we may loose value, or muck our hand, against this kind of passive villain id rather call and end it there rather than raising and expecting to fold vs a reshove from him (due to his passiveness he would have got there due to his shove right?) unless we have some specific reads that he gii with middle weak pair hands/missed draws/etc id just call it off imo, since we arent getting called back by much (he is way to passive bluff here imo), and we are folding almost always due to our reads we have on him.

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09-30-2014 , 05:39 PM

#19

Quimp

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,130

Click it back vs that sizing.

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09-30-2014 , 08:17 PM

#20

Quimp

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,130

Quote:

against this kind of passive villain id rather call and end it there rather than raising and expecting to fold vs a reshove from him (due to his passiveness he would have got there due to his shove right?)

I would give him credit and fold to a shove, but that doesn't mean raise-folding is bad. If we get called often enough by worse hands to justify raising, we should raise.

Another reason to raise is that in a scenario where we're indifferent between raising and calling, I would go for the aggressive line to build my image. If we call with K2 here, it gives us less manoeuvrability when we have 63ss or T9.

This being said, min-raising would be fine versus a loose passive but I would go a bit bigger vs a better opponent.

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10-02-2014 , 07:40 AM

#21

xkcd

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 448

Easy small raise/fold. He'll call you with Qx/J9 ...

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