i originally suggested the overbet lead, and i think i like that best. i see good arguments for c/c and c/r also.

but its kind of weird that you ask us to make exploitative plays and avoid thinking about unexploitable strategies when your description of villain basically boils down to 'likely kind of good but basically capable of anything'. that seems like a perfect spot to just be thinking about how we should approach this spot to be unexploitable with our entire range.

but its a tricky spot with this specific hand with only very vague reads. if a student asked me about this one, i'd change the subject and go back over the previous hands to find where he could have done a better job gathering information to make some reads that make this an easier spot. that's probably the most helpful thing to be thinking about here anyway.

I don't understand the second paragraph.

I think the third one is a good sentiment...but there are times when we just don't have good information besides some stars by the avatar and a vague familiarity of seeing the screenname around before. There are definitely times when we have to make a decision about what to do here with limited reads.

And I'm aware if it's close/tricky/unusual it's not a big deal. I hate people who make that argument. All of them.

Why would you be unsure about this reasoning? EV is just the average result we get from all possible scenarios. The rivers we hit help or expectation. The ones we miss hinder it. If the overall expectation is still better than c/c'ing, then the reasoning is perfectly logical.

I hope I didn't totally miss your point though, as I'm sure I didn't teach you anything new right there >_>. Just wondering what you're unsure about.

I don't have much to contribute here other than that I'm always leading turn and river here against an unknown about like 60% psb on the turn...rivers i'm not leading again are ones that pair the board/K's/A

His check back is just giving up a lot on the flop if he is a complete unknown and missing that bet is going to be a bigger mistake than leading and getting called imo and having initiative on river

I'm dealing tonight for a charity poker tournament at a nursery school gym. First place is $1000 in cash and gold. IL state law restricts cash payouts to $250.

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That sounds fun. enjoy yourself

c/c isn't optimal IMO because then we only have one way to win the pot, hitting our flush, when I think betting gets us more value when we hit, and gives us FE when we miss.

Spade rivers help the expectation for both c/c and bet bet. The difference is what matters if we're comparing the lines. You know this obv just thinking out loud about the magnitude of that difference.

If out opponent is folding infrequently, c/c would be better even though bet bet gives us two ways to win.

yea, it was poorly written, but maybe the following provides at least an example of what i meant:

see, unfortunately you could say this about almost any 2 unpaired cards in your range (most rivered pairs will be value-bet-able). but if we really just start betting ATC here, then we're in danger of just getting called down by Qhigh a lot. in which case our plan to lead a lot is no longer any good. so our overall strategy should involve bluffing only some, and we may as well do it w/ particularly bad hands which gain more by getting villain to fold as opposed to 85ss which has a lot of equity.

I think talking about overall strategy helps in developing broader understanding of situations, how equilibriums exist and what they look like, how certain hands in your range interact with what your opponent sees your range as not knowing your hand, etc. For this question though it feels like we should just make an estimatition of actual strategies rather than leaning on being balanced.

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Acting as if they're having fun when someone asks to "Deal us a badbeat!"

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That is all.

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cool thread maxwell! happy to see you still posting tho im pretty sure this spot is fairly meaningless in the broader scheme of things but still makes you think which is cool haha

You get spots like this tons imo, very important.

cant see betting turn and river being the best here, i mean we have to assume we are almost never getting any folds on the turn and the fact the board has paired is going to increase hero calls with his sd value alot, cant see that we get much 6x folds at all and still think we get called by A hi and 3x a decent bit too.

so its got to be close between chk calling or doing something like betting the turn really small to set ourselves a cheap price to hit with the intentions of giving up unimproved, an 8 is going to give us the best hand close to always and even a 5 will be good a decent bit.

even though betting really small is exploitable its also hard for villain to really do too much about it given villains perceived hand range, only hands that can really feel comfortable raising a small bet is 6x and even then i doubt many regs will.

also if you are going to bluff the river you probably get more fold equity betting smaller rather than bigger+ it needs to work less, lets face it 6x is calling pretty much any betsize so we are only trying to fold out 3x and A hi, you have more chance of doing that by betting smaller and trying to rep a thin value trying to get a call from his face up range. a good $100, $200 reg is going to know that his range is face up so this combined with a small bet looks alot stronger than betting turn and overbetting river.

also, for questioning my initial hesitance toward going for this new job. that's life changing skypechat ownage right there.

still sounds like a dream job to me. glad to hear its working out well.