Yep.

Would this be the right thread to post LC/Standard hands i need advice on?
Id rather not open a new thread on what im assuming is a simple spot

You can post a hand in here or the stickied spin beginners thread. This thread has been more generally for discussion than hand advice though.

Another suggestion would be to group together several hands you feel are standard and post them in a group of 3-5 hands in one thread.

hey do any of the big winners have losing non showdown line, or is it the norm to have a winning red line, at 30s ?

it's the norm to have a losing red-line

thanks coffeeyah, this thread seems super dead.... so everyone's being telling me the variance is too brutal to convert to spins, but how bad is it, what % of winning days should a decent winner have including rb and excluding? cheers

raydens the only human ive seen with a winning red line


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Play around with SwongSim, you can expect 2000 games breakeven stretches to happen at least once every 20k games, and that is if you're one of the top regs.

Can see chance of EV being bad over X game?
I mean play 2000 games 5% EV good. Then next 600 games -4% EV. Can use tool like swongsim see if is bad play or just 'variance'

SwongSim has an EV chip mode where you can simulate variance in EV chips per game. Unfortunately, real EV chips per game results show some skew which is not accounted for in the simulator. I don't know precisely how that affects the simulated results, so I can't give a good estimation of how accurate they are.

it can be variance for longer than that 1k games at losing ev or worse 1000 has almost unmessurable variance in spins (ofc swongsim can give u it tho) i wouldnt read to much into it if u has 2k games at 5% ur clearly a winner cant box 2k games @ 5% imho


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Does anyone know many 3s, 7s, 15s, 30s, 60s, 100s run in one day?


For example i saw that a jackpot spin and go was hit at a certain buyin level recently when looking at the recent winners on the corner of it. Thus if thats the case, wouldn't it make sense to not play that buyin level since the biggest jackpot hit it already? I mean how often do you think the biggest jackpot for each buyin hits? I'm guessing once every few months? Has a jackpot at a certain buyin level has been hit in the same week or something similar etc?


How does one find if they run good or bad in these on HEM2? I recalled someone mentioned about a specific stat but not sure what that is called.

jackpots are random and RNG's don't have a memory

if theres anyone out there who lives in amsterdam and plays 30s+, feel free to pm and we can talk shop and hopefully be mutually beneficial to each other

Sorry I'm a bit late. Is this skew purely because of winrate difference in different multipliers? Have you ever tried to analyse something like this, for yourself or in general?

This difference has nothing to do with the multipliers. Basically, it only has to do with the fact that you win as many as 1000 chips if you win the tourney and lose only as few as 500 chips if you lose the tourney. If you win the tourney, then your chip EV in that single tourney will typically be many hundred chips. If you lose, your chip EV will typically be slightly negative.

The chip EV stat taken over short samples tends to be significantly over or under 'the true EV' a bit more often and close to 'the true EV' a bit less often than if the probability distribution of the chip EV stat was symmetrical (like it roughly is in HUSnGs).

However, the skew seems small enough and shouldn't alter simulations much.

Ah i see ty, I didn't read it properly. So there is a mode in swongsim that simulates chip EV swings that I didn't know about.

Welcome to early 2016. Newb.

https://www.pokerstars.com/poker/spin-and-go/

Stars went ahead and changed the structure of Spins (without warning anyone... again) as far as I can tell.

Did anyone receive any messages about these changes on .com and .FR


https://www.pokerstars.fr/poker/promotions/spin-and-go/

Looks as though they've made changes on .fr to 7% rake on 25EUR+.... Assume no notice there either.

On the positive side, the changes are good on .com

what did they change in .com exactly? you mean blind strucutre or payout ?

I'm interested in what the new changes are on .com

Tier 2 and 3 went from frequencies of 50 and 100 (per million) to 30 and 75, balanced by shifting some 2x to 4x. Same rake. (.com)

Oh that's very good news, ie they became more grindable. Cheers Max

They've become noticeably more grindable for those regs who were breakevenish pre-rakeback, others aren't going to notice much difference.

The change has more to do with recs' psychology - they get overly upset when they have large series of 2x's, and the change has made such series shorter on average.

The numbers are slightly better across the board save the very top of the distribution, though maybe not noticeably so. Still a good thing for regs.

This seems like it'd be good for regs, too