Hi
This is my EV graph on 15s hypers.
Can i assume that the change in angle of my EV graph is most likely improve in skill or did you experiece that you have so huge variance in your EV (take into consideration that i play like 90% fish)



So basicly i want to know if i can expect the graph to go on in this direction.

seems like variance, first 5k games you ran bad and now you started to run good

Well i have to add that i played much worse in the first few thousand games. Really worse. I just wonder how much influence variance has to it.

So 3k games (5k to 8k) is no samplesize for the EV? Since then its about 5% ev roi if i remember correctly.

or he got better in the middle, but yeah, you can have huge variance even in the ev line

take it as a positive sign man! At least you will know to some extent if you have improved and if you feel you have then that will be reflected in your results to some extent.

both

move up.

I can't play vs regs and on 30s there are better players who sit players like me. I had coaching and the coach basicly told me that i should definitly not play 30s. I think i just beat fish because they play so obvious.

Your coach seems really nitty/conservative to a point that i would question his motives

If you can afford to shot higher i dont think 30$ should be a scary level for anyone that can beat the 15$ over close to 10K sample

if you don't want to directly move up (reasonable if your game vs regs is really bad) then just mix in games vs regs at 15s.

It was zzztilt, so a very experienced player. And indeed i had no clue to so many questions he asked me about what range i give the opponent and why i am making certain moves. When i watch the records of these session i feel like i dont know ****.
Fishs are just easy to beat because to play so transparent.

Being aware of his weaknesses is the first step for improvement. And your honest view on your skill level is refreshing amongst the countless HU players with way too big egos.

And I really don't get you peeps. why try to push a player to move up with already huge queues at 30s+ (and especially 30s)?

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They don't really care about the queues, they're probably going to sit him 24/24 because he's weak.

looking at your EV line is not going to help you figure out if you are playing well or not. it's irrelevant.

Irrelevant is certainly exaggerating it, especially over a significant sample.

not really

you R 9bb deep with KK villain calls and donk on 742 you shove he calls he has 74o. Your EV line goes down. Does that make you a bad player? his EV line goes up. Does that make him a good player?

You OS 99 villain calls with TT your EV line goes down. Does that make you a bad player? if you did that 100bb deep yes. 5BB deep, no.

EV line measure how well you run in all in pots. What has that got to do with playing well or bad?

also, you drive drunk at 200k/h on a mountain road, you are going to have an accident. But you can't conclude that if someone has an accident on a mountain road he was drunk and doing 200k/h

I belive that right play can make 0.70-0.80 $ per game at 15s pre RB
and as u see even if your ev looks nice u still not there even last 3k games

actually u get there sorry , so yeah it can go that way as last 3k games

This is terrible info on the subject. The idea of the EV line is not to portray exactly your true ROI. It is to provide a more accurate interpretation of your results over a shorter sample. The EV line is more accurate than your actual winnings and that alone is reason to trust it more than winnings alone. If the EV line only accounts for 1/3 of the luck involved in poker, that is still better than the results line, which accounts for nothing.

Come on. I didn't say the EV line is the be all end all in judging sb's play and I didn't say you can draw conclusions from the EV line after e.g. 100 hands. To be able to draw clusions from your EV line/showdown/non-showdown line you need a SIGNIFICANT sample (as it is with every statistical measure).

And when I feel I am on my A-game my EV-line goes most of the time coincidentally steadily up and when I am on my D game due to tilt or being way too tired my EV line is most of the time coincidentally declining. Sure there are sessions where I am on top of my game and get coolered all the time But that doesn't mean the EV line is a completely useless measure.
Card distro has an effect on the EV line that is not to underestimate no question but if card distro were ~ EV line (which is what you're basically saying - maybe adding in villain distro too, but we have at least to some extent control over that part) I would certainly not put in as much time into poker as I do right now or prolly none at all.

And the spots where we're getting coolered or cooler someone else even out over a large enough sample, assuming an uniform distribution, that is rngs aren't rigged.

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I understand what you guys are saying. What I am saying is that:
"my EV line goes up therefore I play well" is flawed logic

In the long run this evens out since both sides have this "advantage".



Another question: Is it normal that almost every (weak) reg wants to rematch me? I dont want to have regbattles at 15s but it makes me angry that every weak reg wants to battle and doesnt stop clicking "rematch accept".

the fact that it evens out doesn't really matter because the logical conclusion you draw from looking at your EV line is flawed.
Take for instance that KK 9bb, 742 board vs 74o example when you have KK and get it in vs his 74o your line goes down but that doesn't make it a bad play. Now, just for argument sake, let say that next hand "evens out" and the exact same situations occurs but you have 74o this time. Your EV line goes up but it's a bad play. now if you are looking at your EV line over both situations it still doesn't tell you if you played well or not.
EV line eliminate a small part of the variance associated with playing poker. it does what it's design to do but drawing conclusion about how well you play from it is reading too much into it. EV lines are not very useful too make that type of conclusions.

I wouldn't read too much into this. Poker regs often have bigger egos than brains.

the constant exhibition of your inability to grasp the concept of EV is harming the discussion, i'd ask you to stop the reiteration of flawed arguments. EV line doesn't magically take into account coolers, we get it ok? yet it is a better approximation of your performance than actual winnings, which is why every decent heads up player uses it to evaluate his play, AMONG OTHER THINGS.


you can go the same route and say that profit has nothing to do with how well or bad you are playing. don't you get how stupid that is? instead of thinking black and white you should try to grasp the concept of correlation.

it obv depends on sample, if someone has 5% ev roi over 15k games, I wouldn't need to look in to his game to say that he plays good, and if someone has 5% over 500 games, than it really doesnt tell much how good he plays, but still you can tell player is no brain dead tard who just clicks buttons(just guessing, mby such player could get such roi over this sample ).