Quote:
Originally Posted by Torg0th
Why? You can overbet turn and overbet shove river.
In a multi-street game, it is mathematically proven that we can bluff the most often by using the same bet sizing (w.r.t. the pot size, for example 2/3 pot on all streets) that allows us to jam on the river. Roughly speaking, this corresponds to the idea of arithmetic and geometric average. And in that sense, the "optimal" bet sizing in this spot is something like t52.
That said, problem with betting small on flop and then overbet jamming the river is that you couldn't have many bluffs in your flop bluffing range, at least not against a competent opponent who can float and x/r a ton if you did that. People keep saying they can get away with t30 on these dry boards because they will get tons of folds, but that also makes it very cheap for me to x/r bluff. Actually, I think it's a mistake for BB not to have a x/r range if SB is gonna bet close to 100% of his range. Also, I doubt there are that many value hands that you will play this way (betting small on flop and overbetting on later streets).
And why is it a mistake not to bet most K high on this board? Are we going for 2+ streets of value with those hands?
As for the bet sizing, let me ask you this. Forget this hand for a sec, and suppose we are betting 2/3 on all streets, jamming the river. The board is static and our range is polar so that we will go for 3 streets of value. If we had 20% of value hands all along the way, how often can we bluff on flop in order to keep villain indifferent to calling and folding?
