Originally Posted by spamz
This isn't true at all for a couple of reasons. Main one being blocker effect. Let's say in a vaccuum (without looking at our own hand), there are 3 queens and 3 tens left in the deck. If we have a Q, it puts the Tx vs Qx in a 3-2 favorite. If we have Tx, it puts the Qx vs Tx in a 3-2 favorite. Some pokerstoving to show what I mean:
Board: Qd Ts 3c 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.118% 35.70% 01.42% 29826 1188.00 { ATo }
Hand 1: 62.882% 61.46% 01.42% 51354 1188.00 { AQs, ATs, KQs, KTs, Q2s+, JTs, T2s+, AQo, ATo, KQo, KTo, Q2o+, JTo, T2o+ }
Board: Qd Ts 3c 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.522% 48.75% 02.77% 40734 2316.00 { Q4o }
Hand 1: 48.478% 45.71% 02.77% 38190 2316.00 { AQs, ATs, KQs, KTs, Q2s+, JTs, T2s+, AQo, ATo, KQo, KTo, Q2o+, JTo, T2o+ }
Ignoring this difference is quite big if you ask me. I just did vs ANY Tx and Qx though making a bit more realistic range will have same effect:
Board: Qd Ts 3c 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.115% 35.36% 02.75% 15264 1188.00 { ATo }
Hand 1: 61.885% 59.13% 02.75% 25524 1188.00 { AQs, ATs, KQs, KTs, Q6s+, JTs, T7s+, AQo, ATo, KQo, KTo, Q8o+, JTo, T8o+ }
Board: Qd Ts 3c 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.189% 52.01% 01.18% 23273 528.00 { Q4o }
Hand 1: 46.811% 45.63% 01.18% 20419 528.00 { AQs, ATs, KQs, KTs, Q6s+, JTs, T7s+, AQo, ATo, KQo, KTo, Q8o+, JTo, T8o+ }
Although there's basically only 1 hand between AT and Q4 in terms of absolute handstrength here (being JJ obviously though that gets 4bet preflop most of the time anyway), you can see how the difference in blocker effect is quite present.
Now how about vs straightdraws? Let's assume AK also gets 4bet preflop for sake of easiness:
Board: Qd Ts 3c 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.287% 80.29% 00.00% 29250 0.00 { ATo }
Hand 1: 19.713% 19.71% 00.00% 7182 0.00 { AJs, KJs, K9s, J9s-J8s, 98s, AJo, KJo, K9o, J9o-J8o, 98o }
Board: Qd Ts 3c 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 83.460% 83.46% 00.00% 31728 0.00 { Q4o }
Hand 1: 16.540% 16.54% 00.00% 6288 0.00 { AJs, KJs, K9s, J9s-J8s, 98s, AJo, KJo, K9o, J9o-J8o, 98o }
Difference here is not that huge though still applies. With AT we got some sort of redraw (vs KJ if an A turns we still got 4 outs, or a K/J we still got a gutter to go with our trip outs now) but the main thing is that vs KJ/J9/J8 the J is not live with Q4.
Combining the 2 now:
Board: Qd Ts 3c 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.297% 54.83% 01.46% 44514 1188.00 { ATo }
Hand 1: 43.703% 42.24% 01.46% 34290 1188.00 { TT, 33, AQs-ATs, K9s+, Q6s+, J8s+, T7s+, 98s, AQo-ATo, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
Board: Qd Ts 3c 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.221% 64.60% 00.62% 55001 528.00 { Q4o }
Hand 1: 34.779% 34.16% 00.62% 29083 528.00 { TT, 33, AQs-ATs, K9s+, Q6s+, J8s+, T7s+, 98s, AQo-ATo, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
(I've put in TT/33 here now as well just for sake of putting up a decent range.)
Valuebet? 99-44 is heavily discounted for imo. If they flat them preflop it's to either fold them on a floptexture like this and if they don't they fold turn anyway. I think there's a lot more value in checking vs those hands and try and valuebet on river then because our hand will look like AK/AJ/KJ a lot more if we don't fire turn. Tx, kind of the same, although they are more likely to call turn I admit. Problem with blockers etc like I said before. Straightdraws? Meh, KJ/AJ/J9 may call another one but can also jam on you (agree, that won't happen that often however). Other straightdraws will just fold and vs that handrange I think it's easier to c/c and hope for bluffing. So basically I see almost no reason to bet turn here again.
Why would you ever raise flop with Qx here if you were villain? Or a set? I mean, if we get called on the flop I don't think discounting Qx from his range a large number of the time is a great idea really. Most people will just flat flop with hands like QJ here if you ask me, not raise them.
Depends a bit, but yeah, without reads it's pretty bad though I know a reg I would bet flop, c/f turn against for good reasons on this boardtexture with this hand.
Oh, I don't think you should be 3betting ATo all too much really. If you want to 3bet because his openrange is wide, why not flat and keep it as wide as it is? Flop an ace and get stacks in even by checkraising and bet/jamming turn/river. AT plays pretty easily in single raised pots if you ask me. If you 3bet I think there's merit in checking flop as well. Thing is people rarely continu without any good equityhands anyway (the range I put up a bit ago pretty much) and the value is kind of thin in general (we had 57% if you look back, even making it wider will just have us 60% or so vs a wide range). There's still 2 other streets to get value from and doesn't have to flop/turn or flop/river really. Let all the hands that don't have anything at all try and catch up (any Ax, or cards 9-4 basically). The rest isn't folding anyway and he has position and - as you can see in OP - we won't have an easy time playing our hand.
