Ok, maybe you guys remember me from last week. Here is my first strategy question for you. Hopefully this goes well, or it might also be my last.
Quote:
From Collin Moshman’s head’s up book, page 83, hand 52. Been playing LAG, vs TAG and it working so far as TAG down to $875 chips after blinds are posted. Blinds 25/50. TAG Raises to 125 on button, we have 44. Colin's action: raise to $450.
I think Collin’s play is a big fundamental mistake. In a spot like this I have two primary goals.
1. Force villian to difficult stack decision.
2. If possible, not force myself to stack decision.
So, after Collin’s raise, pot is $250, villain stack is $775 and villain has to call $325. If he calls, pot is 900, and his stack is down to $450, so we do achieve number 1, villain is clearly pot committed and must push or fold pre-flop. However, so are we, if villain pushes his $450 into 900, we are getting 3:1 and have to call. If we are going pot commit ourselves, PUSH pre-flop is always best.
However, we still need to ask, can I achieve number 1 AND number 2? Let’s look at following numbers. Numbers are raise amount, pot if villain calls, effective stack after villain call, our calling odds if he pushes:
150, 550, 625, 1.88
175, 600, 600, 2.00
200, 650, 575, 2.13
250, 750, 525, 2.43
325, 900, 450, 3.00
If we only raise $150, is he really pot committed? If we raise $200, can we laydown at 2.1:1? The $175 raise looks the best. Clearly he is now stack committed forcing him to fold or push pre-flop, and we can get away from a push.
Keep in mind, my first objective is always primary (force villain to push or fold); the second is a great bonus. So if you think folding at 2:1 vs villian push is borderline, than pre-flop PUSH is the way to go. I think push or $175 raise are pretty equal here. When give equal decision, I choose less variance. Particularly since we are the better player given how we have been chipping away at this guy (if I was lucky enough to ever get in this spot versus Ivey, I am pushing 100% of time). But vs this TAG chump, I raise $175 more, making it $300 to go, forcing villian to fold or push and if he pushes, I live to fight another day. If it plays out like this, I am still 1700 – 1300 chip leader, and go right back to chipping away.
So, please comment on my analysis. Thanks.