Your playing style has nothing to do with you running at or above all-in EV, lol.

lol its very simple if jam is +ev ev line goes up, if its -ev jam than it goes down long term

My playing style has A LOT to do with running above or below EV, lol.

Just a small example: I am running above EV. Why? Because I am always looking to byte my opp's stack and leave him with as low as I can with a lot of non-showdown winnings.

Then blinds get up and I push a lot. Now,
I have 750 and he has 250(15/30), i push T9s and he calls with K5s and I lose. 500 to 500. Next hand, he shoves 44 and I call kq. I win. Multiply that with 1k games. Sometimes I win in the first ex, sometimes in the 2nd and sometimes I lose. But I win more than I lose.Am I running below or above EV?

@none888 its about running below/above EV not what you said.

Dont get me wrong, my EV is going up all the time. But the green line is getting up faster. You should really be less than 100% sure on your thoughts at any time. Am I really talking non-sense? Please argument your answer, i'm not a mind reader.

off-topic, Serkules is running crazy above EV. Lucky,huh?

yep

You're such a smart kid none888.

Are you for real?

Are you a winning player? At what stakes?

smeu on stars,easy as that.

now can someone explain to something to me or are you all acting like arrogants?

The AIEV simply removes variance from all-in situations. I've probably spent like 10 hours and 100 posts over past few years trying to explain EV, variance, standard deviation etc. on plo forums but recently I've almost given up with it, because there's always someone new to come up and make the same dumb arguments why "EV isn't accurate".

In short: it's simply meant to remove variance just from all-in situations (just a small part of the variance, eg. in PLO it'd mean about 1/3th lower standard deviation for your AIEV than your actual winnings). Think of AIEV just as "run it 99999999 times" for every single all-in. Why the hell would that be inaccurate/biased in any way?

In your example, you're talking about non-showdown winnings (folding equity) of shoving a lot. What does that have to do with replacing ALL-IN RESULTS with ALL-IN EQUITY ADJUSTED RESULTS, which is exactly what AIEV does. (and nothing else)

Thanks chinz. Not for making me dumb but for not being THAT arrogant.

First of all, "EV isn't accurate" is bull****. I didnt say that, I said its overrated in HOLDEM HYPER TURBO HU with 25bb starting stack.

I am talking about non showdown winnings AND shoving a lot, not the same thing. And it has nothing to do with what you said.

I only said I am running above EV because I look for spots like the one I mentioned above. It's simple math. If you have 300 chips and I have 700 chips I have more chances to win it. I double you up with 42% equity and now we're even(you fold 2 more times). Now we're allin again (slightly 50%-50%). If I KEEEP doing that in A LOT of games, then math tells me I'm gonna run above EV because I'm gonna win ~50% of the time the all-in and more than that the HU.

Again, it has nth to do with the EV line, it has to do with the green line being below or above. EV is accurate and very important. But in my opinion in hypers is way less important than other types.

Let's pretend all the games were at the $7 buy-in level. If you achieved a 6.9% ROI from 1338 games, then you won 728 out of 1338. Let's see what the math chances are of you having a true ROI of 5%+ with this sample. You have a 84.28% chance of having a true ROI rate of 5% or higher with this sample. So obviously, you have around a 1 in 6 chance of having a true ROI lower than 5% and are just running way over EV.

If you were to achieve a ROI of 6.9% after 10,000 games, the statistical probability of you having a true ROI rate of 5%+ jumps to 99.76%, which means the chances of you having a rate less than 5% and running way over expectation are 1 in 416.

I've always felt a 10,000 game sample is a good amount to get an accurate portrayal of your abilities. This size sample will have plenty of good and bad variance runs, and more importantly, how these runs affect your play. Consistency is one of the most overlooked aspects of HU SNG play. You might have the ability to play great, but if you stink it up every 5th day for whatever reason, your numbers will go down accordingly.

Youre not talking about running above or under EV but probably about running up/down with your EV. You cannot improve your chances of running above your EV even while chosing only 99% all in situations.

Sorry but you still don't get it. Your play style has nothing to do with running over or below ev. It has something to do with luck.

You'd think so wouldn't you

popcorn.jpeg

I think you're forgetting about when you shove marginal hands and your opponent folds your ev line goes up according to the number of chips in the pot. If this happens a few times and then you're called by a better hand then your ev line can still be up from the start of the game.

eg.

• you shove on sb and villain folds, you collect 1 bb
• villain folds sb, you collect 0.5bb
• now your ev line has gone up 1.5bb, so if you get it in as a 60/40 dog for, say 10bb your ev line goes down 1bb but you're still up 0.5bb from the last couple of hands.

I think I have that correct, the numbers could be off but I think the idea is ok.

But really, this is a level, right???

you're such a fish

I'm wrong all the time. Thanks Benjamin for that, I have a lot more to learn specially with the EV line, it seems that I'm very lucky.

I'm just wondering how can I learn when most people are making fun and are really arrogant.

Too much off-topic though. I'm done with this.

take that back or no more popcorn for you

i'm sorry but if you prefer this:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...fa/Popcorn.jpg
over this:
http://www.dadsbigplan.com/images/popcorn.gif


you are a fish

tilted much?

would it help your tilt if I cc Ax tp for 3 streets?

It's the internet, people will be ass holes. Just ignore us

I run above ev because I MAKE MYSELF!!! It's got nothing to do with luck, it's play style!! You have to believe you will win with 10j vs k5o

-smeu

FYP