Don't play SNGS much so here vs a good reg facing a river shove after the way the hand was played call vs fold thoughts?

BB: 1,350 (67.5 bb)
Hero (SB): 1,650 (82.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A 3
Hero raises to 40, BB calls 20

Flop: (80) 8 A A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 40, BB raises to 120, Hero calls 80

Turn: (320) 6 (2 players)
BB bets 200, Hero calls 200

River: (720) T (2 players)
BB bets 990 and is all-in Hero?

for me it is a snap call, AT+ he dont flat it pre.

hand that beats you are 88 66 TT flat possible but I think a good reg would 3bet TT and 88 all the time.

97 possible but would he c/r this flop?

A8 AT and A6 beats you, vs A2 ,3,4,5,7 you split. Cant do the math here, but for me its a call.

any reads maybe?

not much reads as i never played him before but he is one of the best regs on the site.

I suspect he doubts whether you have an Ace.

Maybe he has 8x, but I dont think I could fold.

Reminds me of an AJ NL 6max cash hand I played donkey years ago. Flop came 8JJ. LOL, vill had 88 and I could not fold then either.

$500 is above my stakes, so ha ha, just giving my thoughts.

Yeah I'd call

Don't think you beat any of his value hands. Any idea what his bluffing tendencies might look like here? turn/river sizing might give away some info

This is a fold.
But id like to know your cbet and his c/r and preflop 3bet frequency. If they are weird enough it might be a call.

OTR only 97 hit and the rest of his bluff range hits the T and checks a LOT of the time.

His turn sizing is interestening. Id expect a good player to set up a river barrel better. But cant really read anything into it. Sometimes ppl just count wrong. But in general he would probably have paid more attention to good turn sizing if he had tips.

Hands in his range that beats you: flush, A8, A6, A9, 79 (this is going to be the most rare holding though, and I kinda doubt he would ship it). Depending on game flow,Im leaning towards flush more often than the other hands.

Of his value range, villain will almost always have a flush here, because it makes the most sense for him to shove it. Ax has card removal, therefore significantly more of your calling range will have him beaten, which would make more sense for villain to bet that smaller, like 360, to induce more calls. A boat could also shove this river, but again, your calling range is even tighter when he has a boat and a smaller bet would make more sense. A flush makes perfect sense for him to ship, because if you have a boat you will be shipping it anyways, and if you have Ax which is more likely you will be calling any bet. You could apply this to 79 as well, but villain having 79 is very very slim here. I doubt he will play 66 this way, with a check raise on the flop, and 88/TT 3bet it pre.

Therefore, he will have air or a flush more often than other holdings when he ships it, and I think he will have a flush more frequently than air. IDK what the metagame was like, but that could definitely change villains perseption and shoving range. If you have been calling wide in villains eyes, or making hero calls, or if he thinks you are capable of making a hero call, then he would open his shoving range on the river to Ax as well.

Then he must have a lot of air cuz i aint seeing no flush on this board (or am i blind?)

He is full of it imo - he xr the flop (which is fine when he has Ax/88 - and isnt he supposed to 3bet alot of his Ax/88++?) but then he sizes the turn so that he has to overshove the river. Nah - if thats for value than it is played really poorly, or he assumes that OP thinks really deep. But again, its an xxy board, most of the time nobody has anything, Hero shows weakness by calling the c/r so he might give him an 8 and he tries to bully him off.

The only hand (aside from an actual Ax which is unlikely imo) is 97, picking up the OESD on turn. But thats about the only way i could think off he would play this hand like this for value.

Call!

RBJ--

I like it when you post strat, but there is no flush possible on this board.

This hand is too far above my paygrade to really comment, but I think I call here.

Did a cardrunnersEV run. A call is zero EV if everything below is true:

- Cap villains preflop range at A8 or worse down to a normal defend range.
- He c/r all backdoor FDs and SDs and all trips+ on the flop (46% c/r).
- He continues with GS, FD and trips+ OTT (53% turn barrel).
- And on the river he checks all rivered pairs (33,7% of the time) and bets all trips+ and 50% of his air (56% river barrel).

If he was bluffing wouldn't he bet less as it does the same thing and leaves him some chips behind?

He might as well be thinking the reverse. So its a guessing game and cant be used to inform our decision.

Nope - if he is bluffing he has to make sure you fold your 8 and he doesnt get it done by betting 100 chips - is he? So overbetting gets the job done a maximum amount of the time although in this case it shouldnt happen.

was thinking more a 500 550 bet bluff

Depends how he views you imo. If he thinks your good enough to fold a weaker ace here like you have then he's better shoving as it's absurdly more profitable for him. A bet of 550 or w/e doesn't fold out your hand here obv. And weak aces do make up a decent part of your range.

The hand breaks down to what level you put each other on imo.

hahahaha my bad, thought it was 2 hearts on the flop.

I think you gotta call then. I dont really see him making this play OTF with pocket 6s. AK-AT 3bets pre, so A9/A8/A6/79 are the only hands you have to worry about.

I can see him shoving air here because it forces you to make a hero call for all of your chips, and it only has to work around ~44% of the time for it to be profitable. I think he is betting like half pot with Ax to get a call from weaker holdings instead of forcing you to hero.

ATo and 88 cant be discounted from his flatting range. Especially if villain views hero as an unknown.

Also i tweaked my original quick and dirty CREV run and came up with this:

His river range is 12,6% boats, 24% trips and 17% straights (we must assume he barrels all turned OESD IMO). So asusming he checks rivered pairs he only have 16% bluffs left even when he bluffs every single missed GS and FD.
So even if he checks every single Ax our call is slightly -EV.

And all of the above are assuming a very wide 37% flop c/r and a 57% turn barrel range.

Basically what i changed is i added AT and A9 to his flat range and made him only c/r BDFDs Q high or better.

Can send the CREV file to anyone interested in doing more than guessing.

You are off your game today. Villain overbet river, so it can't be 44%...

Have to fold. Vs an unknown this is a hesitant call but if this is one of the best... you really beat NOTHING unless he's completely spazzing on the hand with a rivered pair of 10s imo. A bluff ~500 gets the job done the same as the all-in here, and a bluff all-in would be too spazzy at low blind level, deep stacks, and given you've raised pre, called the c/r on flop, called the turn (you're repping KK-JJ at worst)... so I have to conclude he's taking you to value town on the river.

My logic prolly flowed for this BI level ( some would say for any level ) but...

I don't think 79 is a realistic option here, it's too unlikely given the action , it would require him to c/r the flop as complete bluff, then bet the turn as a semi bluff and shove the river when he gets there. I mean, I guess it's possible , but I can't believe that.

I would recon that his betting is for value or as bluff from the start to the finish of the hand.
Would he not 3 bet 88 pre flop? If a guy plays monsters this fast post flop it would be realistic that he 3 bets his middle pairs pre?
Ax is obv a reasonable option for villain to hold, if he had A8 he played it like a boss imo.
But he also might get stubborn repping the A, even if he knows there are a lot of Ax in your range , he knows that there are a lot of hands without A there also.

I personally would call...too curious not to see his hand.

lol, definitely shouldnt be thinking like this

seems you are both off your game, it's 37% of the time, but overbet has nothing to do with it. if anything, he has to overbet, so it can be 44%!

actually I don't see why this is all about a level or smth, ppl on 500s aren't supose to do random/weird stuff, right? bluff seems so suicidal after hero flats c/r and turn barrel, can't really see any other hands than A2-A9 played this way and we have 33% equity vs that range when we need ~37%, simple as that.

and doesn't it make this overbet pretty cool? we are making mistake if he has better Ax, if he push us of a split then it's sick good for him, we probably still have JJ-KK, maybe 8x in our range at this point so obv he doesnt need to worry about being called with better all that often.

If villain bets pot, his bluff has to work 50% of the time, correct?

Edit: Oh, you prolly mean Hero needs 37% equity to call. I don't think Jews was referring to Hero, but maybe poor reading comprehension on my part