$50 Turbos. Weak Kx at about 12BB stack depth.
09-09-2011
, 06:34 AM
Good points, Dane 
Btw. another mistake people often make in these situations is not calculating EV from the beginning of the hand - we need to compare strategies here, not how much equity we have when we get jammed on.
Openjamming is guaranteed to be better than folding, so our EV for the entire hand is better than -0.5 bb (*).
If we minraise and our opponent jams for 12bb, then we'd need to call 10bb for a pot of 24 - so we'd need at least 10/24 = 41.7% equity to call.
But that's wrong. When we have a +EV option for the entire hand and are thinking about doing something else, then we also need to think about the EV for the entire hand of this other strategy.
So in fact, we need 11.5 / 24 = 47.9% equity when we get it in.
If we're above these 47.9%, then minraise/calling becomes clearly superior to folding - and openjamming, assuming we have fold-equity and/or positive expectation when he flats.
If we're below these 47.9%, then whether we minraise or openjam depends on how much fold-equity we have and how big our edge is when we get flatted.
For instance, if our opponent flats a lot and play fit-or-fold post-flop - or lets us limp and stab, then we can take a ton of chips off him post-flop, so seeing a flop becomes far better than openjamming.
So basically, our decision whether to openjam or minraise / limp depends on how he plays post-flop and how big our edge is.
Once we do that, then whether we minraise/call or minraise/fold depends on our equity against his jamming range.
And if we have more than 41.7%, but less than 47.9% when we call his jam, then we're losing chips and need to compensate for that with fold-equity and the chips that we win post-flop when he flats.
(*) Careful, that's only a sample number, we're actually doing a lot better than -0.5bb in ev for most hands. Most are between -0.5bb and +0.5bb.
Btw. another mistake people often make in these situations is not calculating EV from the beginning of the hand - we need to compare strategies here, not how much equity we have when we get jammed on.
Openjamming is guaranteed to be better than folding, so our EV for the entire hand is better than -0.5 bb (*).
If we minraise and our opponent jams for 12bb, then we'd need to call 10bb for a pot of 24 - so we'd need at least 10/24 = 41.7% equity to call.
But that's wrong. When we have a +EV option for the entire hand and are thinking about doing something else, then we also need to think about the EV for the entire hand of this other strategy.
So in fact, we need 11.5 / 24 = 47.9% equity when we get it in.
If we're above these 47.9%, then minraise/calling becomes clearly superior to folding - and openjamming, assuming we have fold-equity and/or positive expectation when he flats.
If we're below these 47.9%, then whether we minraise or openjam depends on how much fold-equity we have and how big our edge is when we get flatted.
For instance, if our opponent flats a lot and play fit-or-fold post-flop - or lets us limp and stab, then we can take a ton of chips off him post-flop, so seeing a flop becomes far better than openjamming.
So basically, our decision whether to openjam or minraise / limp depends on how he plays post-flop and how big our edge is.
Once we do that, then whether we minraise/call or minraise/fold depends on our equity against his jamming range.
And if we have more than 41.7%, but less than 47.9% when we call his jam, then we're losing chips and need to compensate for that with fold-equity and the chips that we win post-flop when he flats.
(*) Careful, that's only a sample number, we're actually doing a lot better than -0.5bb in ev for most hands. Most are between -0.5bb and +0.5bb.