32nd hand of the game. Villain seems like a decent player,

He has been c/r'ing once before on a T43ss where I folded. No others read really, as I've been folding a lot pf due to being card dead. So far I've cbetted 100% (3/3 opportunities). 2 of them he folded, the last he c/r'ed me.

Question: What should I do on this flop?

As I see it I only have 2 options: To play it as I do or just check the flop back. But don't really know what was best?

this board hits his calling range really hard and I think you are behind here.
maybe it is weak but I would check behind here, we have position and can see what he does on the turn.

or I´am completely wrong here?

I'd play it the same

we lose too much equity if we check back and don't hit.

wp man

But if we check back, we still have some sd value + we can call if he bets the turn, and then just fold to a river bet if we miss?

Isn't this a lot easier than GII? We're at best flipping here, but even against Q8 (which was the hand he actually had) we only have like 40% equity? And he's often gonna have 2 pairs+?

After he CRs to 320 he doesnt want to fold. For me shipping or giving up the invested chips depends on whether you feel you have the edge to win pots post flop when he doesnt hit strong.

When he makes this CR, I would only ship very strong draws like overcard+FD+SD, but I am a nit when they show strength on coordinated boards.

Pretty hard to come up with a range that he has so that shoving will show a profit,assuming we got 0 FE againt this player.
I call and go from there,don't get direct odds but we def have implied odds and some turns might slow him down such as a T or a K.

Played fine imo

Can't we just flat his c/r ? I don't think he's ever folding ott, so we basically get his stack each time we hit.

Really not a big fan of gii over his c/r - we have zero feq and are running against two pair+ a lot.

I'd even think checking back is better than betting since we kinda have to expect to get c/r on this board a lot.

That's what I thought.

I wouldn't be so sure about the implied odds as probably if we hit, he doesn't wanna go on with his let's say TP or even 2pair.
If one of these cards falls, T or K, we're still not happy as it could have actually helped his pair+draw or sth like that.
Besides that if we don't hit and he barrels, we cannot call as we lost massive equity.

yes if turn is 4h he will c/f 2 pair lol.
And what is hard to get about a turn T or K? He will check often with his 2pair hands and we can decide if we want to bluff or get a free card.
So what if we have to fold turn,lose massive equity rly? Show me a range that you think he has that it's +EV to ship on flop.

Who said that? I'm saying we won't get paid off enough to make this call profitable.

Or bet his hit str8, w/e he bets probably most turn after this huge raise on the flop, the pot is too big now.

We lose 240 to call on the flop and equity falls drastically on the turn.

He can be doing it also with fd, single TP (which certainly we have odds to), there's also some little chance he might be bluffing given this raise size and so on and so on. So I think we have some of FE still. Vs many hands we're slightly behind but still have massive amount of outs. Why shall we give him 240 and probably not get paid off when hit and be forced to fold if we don't?

don't know why i bother responding. You know what implied odds means? I guarantee you if you hit turn you get payed off at least one bet.

Just show me a range in pokerstove where you are +EV to shove. And really wtf is with not getting paid off. If he calls at least one bet of 250 or something on turn we break even.

We only have 5 good hearts to get paid off on.

2h, 4h, 5h, 6h, 7h

8h/Th/Kh makes a straight, 9h pairs the board.


with the raise size, we should have close to 0FE

Since we have no clue what he's c/r with, it's hard to define it. Can be 2pair+ obviously, but also lower FD with something to go with (KhXh, 9hxh, Thxh) and maybe hands like JTo/T9o/QTo?

What??

we need to call 240 to get 800+x, so to get paid off on the turn (where we hit, let's say 18%, about 10% assuming borderline's paying off cards) we need him to call 530 (stack off for borderline's cards). So where did you find these 250??? 250 is ok only if our ace is good and he has sth like Q5 without heart

Didn't actually do the math exactly but i'm sure my guess is pretty accurate. If we get at least 250 chips every time we hit on turn that means we need like 19% equity for only one card which you doubt we have,plus we will get free rivers. But you are so sure we have more than the 43% equity required to shove lol.I'm starting to think you have no clue of math/ranges in husng and just like to pull out random stuff.

And borderline if 8h,th,Kh aren't good then that means there are 9 more outs on turn in which we'll see a free river and can bluff on them. And if 9h hits,he'll have what 12 FH combos whereas QJ/KQ/QT,straights make up for 65 combos that pay off at least one bet.

For 250 bet we need exactly 22,85% equity so what are you talking about? Is it so difficult to divide 240 by 800+x for you? If you can't do such a math why do you guess and put yourself made numbers?



Bluff made flushes?

omg reading comprehension....

first i said we can bluff K/T/8 non heart that will slow him down with lots of hands or get a free card,wtf do i even said to bluff made flushes?The 9 more outs i speak of are the K/T/9 non heart ldo didn't bother to mention since it was that obvious.

And yea messed the equity a bit have just woken up.

w/e done with trying to give my reasoning to someone who won't even try to take it,and still has failed to give me a decent range calc for shoving since you are so clearly sure it's a +EV play.

I'm not so super sure shoving is super insta easy decision. But I'm rather saying that I don't like calling so much.

Trying to find his range still

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,340,815 games 2.909 secs 2,523,484 games/sec

Board: Qh Jh 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.180% 49.90% 00.29% 3662961 21253.50 { Ah9h }
Hand 1: 49.820% 49.54% 00.29% 3636740 21254.50 { KTs, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Kh2h, Q4s+, JhTh, J9s, Th9h, T8s, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h, KQo, KTo, Q7o+, J9o, T8o }


---

Even when we exclude all this strange flush draws

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18,548,601 games 7.283 secs 2,546,835 games/sec

Board: Qh Jh 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.146% 45.85% 00.30% 8504859 55425.50 { Ah9h }
Hand 1: 53.854% 53.56% 00.30% 9935082 55425.50 { KTs, Q4s+, JhTh, J9s, Th9h, T8s, KQo, KTo, Q7o+, J9o, T8o }


And some weaker Qx

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,381,666 games 4.879 secs 2,537,746 games/sec

Board: Qh Jh 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.632% 44.37% 00.26% 5494210 32545.50 { Ah9h }
Hand 1: 55.368% 55.11% 00.26% 6823772 32546.00 { KTs, Q8s+, JhTh, J9s, Th9h, T8s, KQo, KTo, Q8o+, J9o, T8o }

we have A3hh...
And the more random Qx no draw you put in his range,the more calling becomes a better play since we can bluff him on lots of cards and he will have no choice but to fold.

lol, true sorry

Hmm so we got something like this with all these possibilities


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,885,247 games 5.118 secs 2,517,633 games/sec

Board: Qh Jh 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.816% 41.49% 00.33% 5346267 42346.50 { Ah3h }
Hand 1: 58.184% 57.86% 00.33% 7455812 42349.00 { KTs, Q5s+, J8s+, Th9h, T8s, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 5h4h, KQo, KTo, Q5o+, J9o+, T8o+ }

Looks like folding is the best? wtf? I think I pretty proved that calling is quite wrong. But looks like shoving is also not good. Maybe this guy made a fast calculation in his mind and raised so that we're in very bad situation. C-bet is out of question, I think.

Maybe there's still very little chance that he will fold making this shove correct? :P

Not cbetting is result oriented. Calling isn't wrong,we have implied odds,he simply won't c/f a heart and we see some free rivers enough to make a profit. If you really think he will c/f to a value bet on the turn,then you still can call and bluff everytime he checks on a K/T/8

this seems to me like an extraordinary tough spot. i don't think shoving over his c/r is profitable, looks like a close to break even play. i also think flatting cannot be good, he will fold us out on a ton of turns and maybe not stack off all the time on scarecards as our hand is really face up. also him semibluffing and getting us off of our hand ott would be a disastrous outcome.

miniwiz, you say not cbetting is results oriented. not saying it is wrong, but WHY would you cbet? and while we are at it, what about cbet sizing?

Jamming is the best option/play given our equity vs his overall range. Flatting is a mistake.