Villain is a -4% loser on sharkscope, however pretty competent, raising 70% buttons, cbetting 100%, not playing stupidly loose OOP or min3betting or anything ******ed. I want to know your river play and/or sizing.

If it matters, I've always been cbetting half pot, but this flop hits his calling range really hard so I tried to squeeze out a little more flop value by going a tad over half pot, but I don't think that changes his range at all.

$20/$40 No Limit Holdem
iPoker
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (SB) ($1,255)
BB ($1,745)

Pre-Flop: ($60, 2 players) Hero is SB K Q
Hero raises to $80, BB calls $40

Flop: Q 4 9 ($160, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $90, BB calls $90

Turn: Q ($340, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $260, BB calls $260

River: 8 ($860, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero ($825)?

Duh, ugly river indeed. Since the river card completes a lot of draws, if you bet here you are basically getting value from 9x, maybe add some worse Qx too.

It'd help if we have reads on his OOP play. Like, how often was he c/c'ing on flop and how did he play draws? This can be very read dependent spot. If we have seen him playing draws aggressively, I'd either bet 400 ish or jam and expect to get called by enough 9x or worse Qx. Otherwise, I'd b/f 250 or check back.

He never check raised, but it was still fairly early on (on iPoker it goes 10/20 then 20/40, and blinds are only 4 mins, so it's a lot quicker than hitting 20/40 on Stars).

I don't remember/didn't note any specific hands, if we had a showdown I would have noted how he played a draw however, so we will assume no showndown hands, and no check-raises previous.

It seems that river play depends on villain's tendency. you mentioned that he is not stupidly loose OOP so does that mean he is less likely to have 4x or Ax? do you have read that villain is calling with draws?
If your image was not that aggressive, I am not sure 9x will call a shove after flush completes.

1)If villain has decent amount of 4x, Ax, 9x in his range, shove
2)If villain has more draws in his range, check/call probably. even though 8s completes flush and JT, we need to be right around 33% and he could have worse Qx as well(weird play tho..). I am not sure i can fold this.

Meh I think we should just bet/fold a size 9x can call. I would expect a lot of river leads with nutted hands so I think we are good most of the time.

I probably go for 350. Vs stationy guys jamming is better.

Not sure if it's optimal play to shove vs 4x and Ax, they will mostly fold.

And we can't check/call on the river.

I see. Looks like b/f then, around 250-300.

I meant check , and I will probably check back lol

This is the ugliest river in the deck.
By the way you described the guy, as being decently aggressive, I don't think he would always check/call with JT or a flush draw, he would most likely check/raise it, even though he hasn't check/raised yet.

Shoving would be an option if you think he could have a weak Qx or if he could be a station and call with 9x, or even J8, T8 or something like that. But I think this is not the case.

I would bet/fold 260 (same size you bet on turn) because it seems and you could get a WTF call.

To everyone avocating a small bet/fold, what would you do if we had A9, or TT?

That was one of the question I was thinking. I will check A9, and probably check back (or b/f if i am not) with KQ.

one question i want to address is the probability that he is behind us.
If that is low, we are checking back.
If that is high, we are bet/fold (deciding the amount that villain calls with 9x is different problem, also depending on reads)

As our hand gets weaker from KQ-2Q to AA-TT,A9-Q9, we should check more often. I am sure most of us will check J9 without read, and most of them will bet/call or shove with A high flush or better. so we have to draw a line between these hands. I agree that KQ could be bet/folding, but I don't like this that much. I think betting with A9 is thin(we already bet enough on the turn), and if you really care about flush, betting KQ could be thin as well.

Let me put it this way. What if we have JT or 8 high flush? Are we shoving? probably not if you are not shoving KQ. you want to get called by Qx with small kicker or 9x. so you decide the amount that villain will call Qx or 9x. and villian c/r all in. are you folding?

Are you gonna make a same argument that JT is folding and 8 high flush is folding even though he is less likely to have flush because of card removal? c/r shove is still super-strong. If I am bet/folding this KQ for sure, I am bet/folding JT, 8 high flush for sure.

That is why I said I don't like b/f that much. With what hands are you shoving, bet/calling, bet/folding, check? this is not easy to decide without read but we have to guess anyway. I am definitely b/f if we have more chips behind, but with this chips behind I tend to check back and take a note on what he has.

I'd mostly check back A9 as he can't have many 9x combos now, and bet small with TT because it has blockers to JT, KT type of hands.

EDIT: Yeah betting with TT seems razor thin because we get called only by 9x or better (or even raised), but having a blocker in this spot seems somewhat significant.

I agree that checking back isn't a terrible option. But a few things:

- Just because we're afraid of him having a flush doesn't mean we have to check back. When we're betting with KQ, there's still enough 9x and worse Qx that can c/c.

- Most players have a different c/c and c/r range on the river. When we bet on the river, we want to get value from those c/c hands. Yes, it's a somewhat thin value bet. Yes, it sucks when he c/r. But as you said, c/c c/c and c/r usually means nutted hands and it's not like we are bluffed off of the best hand here often, although we have no reads on his "trapping" tendencies.

- We can't have a 8-high flush. And I don't think I'll bet/fold many flushes, as he can def. take this line w/ JT as well, especially because the spade fell on the river, not on turn. With JT I'm not too sure, I think I'll have to fold in theory though because he can't have many JTs now.

- I might be wrong here, but IMO how many chips we have behind shouldn't be a determining factor when making decisions. If a certain move is +EV, it's +EV when we have 300 chips behind, and it's +EV when we have 2k chips behind.

All in all, I think bet/folding 250-300 ish seems the best since we're readless, which is the sickest part.

ok. 8 is too high for us to fold and 8s is on the board(sorry), but if we have 54ss and got c/r, we can only beat JT. If we have JT....it is more annoying because we are almost forced to bet lol. bet/fold in theory..

I think it does matter when u expect c/r sometimes. If we have 400 chips behind, I doubt we are betting 300 and fold to a raise lol.

As for the original question, I will either check back or bet 260

Why does it matter? Whether we have 400 chips behind or 4000 chips behind, the EV of b/f shouldn't change at all. My point is, just because you will have to fold with very little chips behind doesn't mean you shouldn't bet, if it's a +EV move.

I didn't say it becomes -EV move. I am saying I rather shove if i have 400 chips. If he is not calling 400, he is not calling 300 with 9x. If you don't believe this and he is only calling same amount 300 or less and fold to higher one, yes chips behind does not matter. I actually believe that i will get called more often when I shove with 400 against unknown.

Umm, we have 825 chips on the river here, not 400. We have ~400 chips behind AFTER we bet 400 into the pot.

And yes, if we indeed have 400 chips on the river, betting 300 might look "stronger" or more value oriented than a shove for 400 chips, but I doubt that will result in any significant difference in +EV vs. a fish.

if villian can have Qx and some flushes in this spot 9x TT-JJ is too thin but KQ is a deff bet just type 3 random numbers the first one being below a 5