10 hands in. We had both opened a couple hands and cbet, all resulting in folds on flop

Poker Stars $20+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

BB: t1480 74 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t1520 76 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with 2 2
Hero raises to t60, BB calls t40

Flop: (t120) 3 4 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t80, BB raises to t240, Hero raises to t1460 all in, BB folds

Reasoning: To him it looks like I've completely missed this flop, so great opportunity to c/r, especially w/ Ax or 6x, even 7x. I'm thinkin real good chance I'm ahead, some chance 3x or 4x folds to the shove, and if im behind 8-10 outs. flaws?

Your range hits this flop waaaayyyyyyyyy harder than his. Now, we don't know yet if he's capable of thinking about this, but this is a WAY different situation than if he raises like a 993r flop for example.

idk it's not like the worst play in the world, you are right that you have outs (although he has blockers to a lot of your outs). Probably slightly -EV, just because when I see people c/r a board like this, they are rarely folding.

That was part of my consideration though, his range includes a lot of unpaired overs, especially Ax, and having seen me open and make the same cbet a couple times before I can see him feeling pretty good about a hand like that. The only thing he can profitably call with is a pocket pair or 3-5x, do you think 3x or 4x come along? Can you quantify rarely folding for me? If he only folds the bottom third of his range then:

.33*440+.66(.35*(440+1180)-.65(1180)) = 13.2 ev

Range I used:

3bets w/: 22+, A2+, K2-K6, Q2-Q6, 32s-76s

calls shove with top 2/3: 22+, A2-A6, K3-K6, Q3-Q5, 32s-76s

Seems like a very generous range, if he only folds 1/3 there's no room to consider him bluffing at all. He can only get rid of semi-bluffs A7-AK, K2, and Q2.

and lets say he never folds, and calls with the whole range

(.5*(440+1180)-.5(1180)) = 220 ev

So the more he does call with that range the better, no?

Am I giving him too wide a range? Is it unreasonable to assume he's capable of a c/r semibluff?

its better than calling, but still kinda hairy

Like 20-25% most likely. People put you on a draw and call off pairs once they invest 240 here.

You most likely folded out unpaired overs, which are def a big part of his range.

You're missing the low unsuited cards. If he hasn't folded much pre, those defo can be in his range, although you can weight them down a bit.

I think that once you put those in it probably goes from slightly +EV to slightly -EV.

I did similar stoving to you, and the nice thing here is that you have blockers for his 6x and Ax hands which are a big part of what will call this off.

Basically the value of the play comes down to how often he semibluffs. As I said, it's a really marginal spot. Shoving or folding are very similar in the long run imo, so don't lose any sleep over it.