also its just this particular runout im not shipping, change the river card to jc then probs becomes an easy ship,

also change the middle card fro Tx to like 9x or something then u could discount some % combos of qjo etc

also if u think that villain is calling all tx anyway then ship, I just dont think they will

lovehatepoker, I would add in a couple of Jx dd combos to villains calling range on river. Also maybe like half combos of A2o, A3o, and KQo. As well as more Tx ss combos. Also QJ cc.

Here's my idea of villains calling range

http://tinypic.com/r/omscw/5



Halved combos of questionable hands (Ax, KQ, KJs, KK, AA, T6o) and removed some of the Kx ss combos.

Villain really shouldn't be calling all Tx if he's good. Otherwise he is just barely folding anything otr since he has such a strong calling range. If villain is folding the bottom 30%ish of his range then shoving J7o is really borderline.

Either we shove J7o here and never bluff, or we bluff here and never shove J7o. I would check back J7o and bluff.

On my phone now so just a few things.

The river decision depends on:

a) his 3b tendency, mostly whether he 3b KJo/KJs/QJo/QJs
b) his calling freq with Tx otr (this is where we differ the most ITT)
c) how he plays T9 on turn (x/r vs x/c, so far we all assumed he will x/c)

In overall it seems a closer spot than I thought.

As for the balancing part, checking this hand back is more or less the same as checking back QJ here. Whether that is an okay play or not, to those who check this back: what hands would you be bluffing with, besides comoletely missed diamonds?

What hands are you bluffing if you shove J7o? What range of hands are you bluffing out?

for different river outcomes and possible plays i really like checking back, and for the chance of facing a x/shove range on turns, which seems like a reasonable assumption vs alot of players, i.e. population (of regs) i also like to have this hand in my checkback range.

the direct EV of betting and checking in a vacuum is extremely close for sure, but i think it really helps vs different lines we can face here and our overall river range if we checkback. i'm a bit bad at putting it to words, and also a bit lazy. if anyone wants a more detailed answer or idea just ask me on skype (or pay me large amounts of money to coach you! :P)

If I bet J7o here it's for thin value, and I can widen my bluffing my range as well accordingly, I don't see why we can never bluff. Like, I can probably bet all missed draws and some 3x/9x to fold out his K high/3x/9x/Tx. It might sound contradictory, but as long as he doesn't play all Tx the same way our play is fine IMO

I don't think we get c/r often ott on this board, esp. when he doesn't have much Ax in his range.

That aside, if you check back ott what would you do when

a) river is a blank (no fd, no broadway) and he bets
b) river is a blank and he checks
c) river is Q/K/dia/spade and he bets
d) river is Q/K/dia/spade and he checks?

To me it seems our hand is a bit too weak at SD w/o improving but have a decent amount of equity+FE that allows us to bet. We can't really bluff catch on most rivers though, and by checking back turn and betting on, say K river, we are repping way too narrow of a range.

Yeah that makes sense but I'm personally struggling to make both bluffing and value shoving J7o here +EV as we need to get value and bluff out the same narrowish range of Tx.

I think lovehatepoker's river calling range for BB is what I would say close to optimal to make hero indifferent to bluffing rivers with a wide range (though I add KK AA too), though I can include maybe 2 more Tx combos.

For both bluffing rivers and shoving J7o to be +EV we need villain to have a super wide range otr which is an optimistic assumption imo.

J7o if we do double barrel ott should be the bottom end of our barreling range imo since we have much better hands to do it with (spade, diamond draws, 2 over cards to the T).

I would double barrel it if I can shove J rivers for value- but if not then checking back turn is better.

You're right, villain's range is not super wide. However, it's kinda capped (mostly to Jx and some 2p+) and doesn't include lots of strong hands either. That said, it really depends on whether he would have 3b KJ/QJs preflop.

If he would, then he no longer has lots of Kx otr and can't fold too many Tx, which is still at the middle-bottom of his *calling* range but not in the overall range he gets to river with.

Also, related is the fact that we often wouldn't have a merged triple barreling range in this spot. For example, many players will opt to check back QT/KT here. That means our betting range is polar, and if he knows that he can find a call with Tx way more often imo. Like, yes we can have tons of better hands, but if we check back some of them it doesn't matter that much, and we will still have most missed draws in our betting range. A correct way to play our range would be actually giving up with some of our no equity bluff, because our value range is narrower, but they don't always play like that.. plus he's getting an okay odds for a call.

I agree that our range play would be to check this back sometimes.

Exploitatively (sp?) though, I think our immediate FE ott makes barreling a slightly better option, even if we don't go crazy on the river.

it just comes down to what you predict the regs range to be, u can make almost any play look +ev if you skew ranges, I just think the average reg doesnt call tx enough of the time. they might show up with bottom x range of tx but that doesnt mean they will call all tx every time.

but if your read or assumtion is different then u can make the bet, this is what poker players do the person that can predict villains range the most accurate and can make the right play accordingly.

i just think (off the top of my head) that even if we bluff all our diamond combos, most gutshot combo's and str8 draw combos that dont pair up we will still have enough value where we dont need to be adding j7o for balance regardless.


also if we do need to be adding j7o as a vbet to balance our bluffs but value betting j7o is -ev then you need to be bluffing less and not value betting j7o

and if j7o is a +ev bet and we have way too many value combos then we need to add more bluff combos on the turn to bluff the river.

prob most work ive ever done in 2 years lol

No one has yet produced a scenario where value shoving J7o is +EV as well as bluffing some wide range for balance.

well if u ad all txs it doesnt really massively effect it, but if you add t8o t7o and t6o it becomes +ev value bet

Here is my image from before embedded, I had it saved as a PNG or whatever. Actually even if we add more combos of Tx, we're still not ahead. As I said before, I halved some combos of questionable hands. (Ax, KQ, KJs, QJs, T6o, and removed 2 Kx ss combos. All suited J are diamond combos except JT) I also did manually edit the combinations of hands in stove, they shouldn't include combos with dead cards that are on the board or in our hand.

If you would like I can make a stove of our river shoving range including bluffs vs this calling range (+ some more Tx if that is deemed appropriate.)

Oh sorry I think you misunderstood me. I meant a scenario where shoving J7o is +EV AND we are legitimately shoving some hands as bluffs which are +EV also. Or one of the above options being +EV, and the other being we are indifferent to shoving or checking.

I just don't think it's possible unless said reg doesn't fold any K highs or pairs up to the river and has no Ax.

I disagree. I expanded villains calling range to include all of those hands, we're still behind.

Still on my phone, but I came up with something. I will post them once I am back to my laptop

against that range yeh:-) but think most regs are nai 3betting qko, agaisnt the range i originally input it becomes +ev, but everyone will have slightly different ranges, and i origanally said i prefer chk back river and still think its best

I think having half combos of KQo, KJo, AA, KK, A2/A3o is reasonable for the population of regs at $15. More reasonable than calling it off with all combos of Tx imo.

Damn I thought check but after reading responses I agree with jam but really it should be based on read, 73 hands is definitely big enough IMO to realize if this guy is flatting an ace on a flush draw board and whether he calls behind with flush draws and potentially how easily he will call off with 10s here. Initially I thought check behind because unless he is a station he is folding Tx to a jam.

On this board we have ~240 combos of {Ax or better}, namely {Ax, 2p, set, KQ, flush}. Now if we include J7 or better, {KJ, QJ, J8, J7} makes 48 combos and thus we are value betting 288 combos. On the other hand, BB is getting ~30% on a call, and we have to include ~123 bluff combos for him to be indifferent to call/fold with his bluff catchers.

The most obvious bluffs would be missed diamonds. That's 45 combos, but if we exclude hands like {KJ, KT, K9, QJ, QT, Q9, JT, J9, T9, T8, T7, T6, T5, T4, T2} we end up having ~32 combos of missed FD that doesn't have a pair.

Then we can think of turning 3x into a bluff, namely K3 and Q3. These are 24 combos.

Then we can add turn some of 9x into a bluff, say {96 or better}. And likewise, we can add in 55-88 (assuming we openjam 44). These are about 84 combos.

Of course we could have included hands with less SDV, for example Kx over 3x. However, those are details and don't matter much here. Anyway, 32 + 24 + 84 = 140 combos, so we have more than enough bluffs to cover up for the wide/thin value betting range.

Now, since he is indifferent to calling/folding with his Tx, it doesn't really matter what both players do when he has Tx and we are betting with the above (value + bluff) range. Rather, we should be asking what BB's overall range looks like, i.e. if he has enough hands stronger than Tx so that can always call and be profitable, or if he doesn't so that we can always bluff and be profitable.

Now let's look into BB's range. I have made a few assumptions here.

a) BB doesn't have many Ax in his range, as he would have 3bet most of them preflop at this stack depth (and he 3bets a reasonably high %).
b) BB 3bets some KJs and QJs, and flats all KJo. Let's say he 3bets 50% of KJs and QJs and flats the rest.
c) BB c/r T9 on turn. This seems reasonable, as the board is too draw heavy and he will miss so much value by not doing so.
d) BB has all Ksxs on the river (flush).
e) BB calls on the river with some Tx about 60% of the time. I just put KT, QT, T8, T7 for these.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 3AT9J

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
(KT,QT,T8,T7)@60, (KxJy,QxJy, JT)@100, (KxJx, QxJx)@50, K:ss@100	50.94%	305,658	0
Jh7s	49.06%	294,342	0

Against this calling range we are almost breaking even. Of course, if he finds a call with Tx more often that's gonna be profitable for us:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 3AT9J

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
(KT,QT,T8,T7)@80, (KxJy,QxJy, JT)@100, (KxJx, QxJx)@50, K:ss@100	43.80%	262,799	0
Jh7s	56.20%	337,201	0