Meh, don't like nor hate it. We are readless, first hand.

Poker Stars $14.69+$0.31 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 1917971
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN/SB: t500 25 BBs
Hero (BB): t500 25 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with A 2
BTN/SB raises to t40, Hero calls t20

Flop: (t80) 8 9 J (2 players)
Hero bets t40, BTN/SB calls t40

Turn: (t160) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets t90, BTN/SB calls t90

River: (t340) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets t150, BTN/SB calls t150

i am quite (probalby too) nitty when it comes to barreling, but i think i'd just give up on this flop, cause there are so many hands in his calling range continuing on this, therefore imo not a very good board to multibarrel on. but, taking into account your opponent knows this, it looks very strong.

on river i like a check/fold, cause i don't think he will check/call flop and turn without a spade. If he would have a strong hand without a spade he would have played it more agressively, esp on turn. and i cannot think of many hands he has at that point without SD value, so i think he'll check behind his non-flush hands.

give up on turn imo

c/f flop, avg fish raising range will hit this board very offten

Stupid triple barrel. What do we want to call the river that we beat?

Edit: Inb4 you get called by 2 pair and tell us how amazing you are.

reasons for betting are (very superficially):
-board hits your hand well (valuebetting)
-board doesn't hit villain's range well (bluffing)

which one applies here?

Triple barreling vs unknown first hand on this board doesn't seem like a good plan.

When he calls your bet on the flop and the turn , what makes u think he is gonna fold the river to a less then half a pot bet?

Ok u take a stab at this flop, it's scary for villain too if it doesn't hit him, but continuing on the turn and river is madness imo.

mostly becuz if villain had a TP he would get it in most of the time, so thats the flop

since he called, he's either on a draw (fish) or weak pair, so im kinda bluffing another street

since he called again, idk what to put him on. i went for a bet/fold on the river, is that even smart?

just shove it preflop easy game

as played idk what you doing

Yeah I hate it tbh... especially turn.

And otr at least half the hands that got there has a spade (this is assuming he doesn't fold spadeless hands in earlier streets), and will call/jam. The other half most likely will fold. I have no idea what that bet is all about.

i think the river bet is fine actually, although c/f is prob better

its one of those block bets that people think make no sense but is good in some situations vs fish

so you bet because he would raise a TP? that's not a reason to bet!!

@ bitchi: games are getting more aggressive, but i still don't think 3bet jamming A2o has the best expectation readless.

Well the thing which I don't like is I'm kinda turning my hand into a full bluff hand. So thats the reason why I bet. Make him fold weaker hands, and the chance he has a weak hand after calling the flop makes me wanting to triple barrel/jam, but the river is pretty mehhhhhh.

I love your post

c/f flop, range hits him pretty well and if he missed you can sometimes get to showdown too by checking. as played I'm not sure about turn, prob just c/f coz it hits his OESDs, it's an undercard to the board, and it brings a bunch of backdoor draws to hands weak SD value that you're trying to fold out. vbet smaller on river, like 90-110 to get value from Jx/Tx

dont do that vs an unknown at low stakes

ok so about preflop shove

if villain opens 60% of the time and calls 50% of the time the shove has exactly 0 ev. this is pretty much worst case

3*.5+((.42*50)-24)=0, I'd rather jam and make it easy. much rather call stuff like a5-9 if you want ax in your preflop range

this is where your assumptions fail.

sure if I see a guy folding a couple times or limping this deep I'll call the reason I'd lean towards shoving a2 though is that it doesn't make much to make that profitable

its gonna be slightly unprofitable at worse to shove

but it's definitely profitable to flat, so we're really only interested in how profitable shoving is. I don't know if anybody playing 15s has a decent sample where the average villain is opening more than 55% at this depth, given that takes into account a lot of regs opening quite wide you're avg unknown is likely to be opening even tighter, probably calling wider vs a shove, and not particularly good at playing postflop. At a guess I'd estimate our expectation from shoving is somewhere between -.2 and .2 bb/100. It's not hard to achieve a better winrate by flatting A2 at 25bb.

As for the hand, Ohly nails it, OP I can see your logic this is just not the spot for what you're trying to do

no data to back it up but i'd say opening frequencies from an unknown should be around 40% at this stakes but i think one as to take into account the fact that if you don't know him he's probably not a reg (assuming you are) so you can probably even decrease some 10 to 20% to that estimation. (made up numbers but i think ppl will get my point)

i sometimes jam for laziness but i'd say flatting here should have the best expectation and i think not cbeting this board is our best option. as played i would also not bet turn. as played i don't see us getting called by any non flush hand and i don't think we fold any flush hand (at least not with this sizing) so i don't see a point in raising river.

edit: meh, otr i do see us getting called by a ten a set or two pair but maybe we should bet a bit smaller.

i don't understand any of this hand except the preflop flat

^this especially since most villains don't cbet this flop wide so we don't lose our A high equity anyways.

Don't do this readless with weak off suit aces unless you know villain is a reg. Average villain doesn't open enough to make shoving better than flatting. You're obviously not burning money 3b shoving (still better than open folding, and yeah still kinda close to flatting) but you're definitely not maximizing your expectation vs a random either.

they're over 50% around 55% i think (Ohly looked it up recently at 15s, i've looked it up at higher capped at 100s stakes)

no, this is a worst case scenario:
www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#TNBM

and here you can see shoving A2o is actually worse than folding to his minr (but it's close).

So yeah, sure if you're lazy/multitabling/playing for fun then just 3b shove. If you want to squeeze out a higher roi flat it.

blinds might be to low for that kind of carry on