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Old 05-03-2005, 11:25 PM   #101
James282
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Re: DERB

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I've noticed that playing opponents in this VPIP range is very difficult because, unlike your typical 2+2 TAG, I have trouble putting them on hands. I will have to check but I recall checking some 15/30 stats a while back and while most players with a >25 vpip are losers, some of the biggest winners were between 28 and 35. By contrast, supertights (<18) were sometime good winners and sometime slight losers (never big losers). I firmly believe that your avg player (like me) cannot win with such a high VPIP, but I also believe that it is more likely that the best player in the world has a much higher vpip than the typical 2+2er.
That's because these people run very well over a short period of time. Show me 5 guys with this sort of luck over 100k period of hands and I'll be totally stunned. But, you won't be able to show me that.


PS: Update on our man - last 2,100 hands I've played with him he's on a 12k+ slide.
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Old 05-03-2005, 11:26 PM   #102
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Re: DERB

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very good point.
also, two 2+2ers say that they have 75k + hands on him and these aren't likely ALL the exact sames hands in both databases. if the overlap is 75% then he is winning his "streak" is more like 100k + hands.
I was thinking the same thing. Maybe even more hands
This is incorrect. They are giving numbers from compounded databases from the same source.
-James
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Old 05-03-2005, 11:33 PM   #103
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Re: DERB

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-He has a very high W$WSF, esp for somebody with such a high VPIP.
This is what really confuses me here. As Nate has shown in other posts, there should be something of an inverse correlation here. Taken alone, his W$WSF is good for the 30/60 game, but not better than other top players. The thing is, the other top players who have similar W$WSF numbers in that game have substantially lower VPIPs. And I am talking 10% or 12% lower, not 3% or 4%.
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Old 05-03-2005, 11:46 PM   #104
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Re: DERB

could easily be collusion.


if there were 2-3+ accounts playing together, it would be easiest to only cash out 1 account. Thus, the other accounts lose to this guy on purpose.
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Old 05-03-2005, 11:55 PM   #105
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Re: DERB

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could easily be collusion.


if there were 2-3+ accounts playing together, it would be easiest to only cash out 1 account. Thus, the other accounts lose to this guy on purpose.
or they could just give the money to their friend lol...

-Barron
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Old 05-04-2005, 12:44 AM   #106
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Re: DERB

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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

could easily be collusion.


if there were 2-3+ accounts playing together, it would be easiest to only cash out 1 account. Thus, the other accounts lose to this guy on purpose.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



or they could just give the money to their friend lol...

-Barron
or they could just use one account. No reason it's more than one guy anyway.
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Old 05-04-2005, 01:03 AM   #107
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You wanna play that game?

Another player. Same city. Same awful player. Up through 30k hands. Don't have the exact stats in front of me for win rate but I know his VIP 30 18 2.1! He is also up way more than he should be, but plays worse than the other guy in question.

Familiar? They don't seem to be in the same game that often though.
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Old 05-04-2005, 05:36 AM   #108
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Re: DERB

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He can't win and thats a guarantee.
You're ignorance is brutal.
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Old 05-04-2005, 05:42 AM   #109
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Re: DERB

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He can't win and thats a guarantee.
You're ignorance is brutal.

How many hands do you have in the Party 30?

How many have you played against the player in question?

I suspect you're the ignorant one.

And there is no way in hell this player can be beating that game. He's either running extremely well, or there is something else at play.

Nevermind the 30/17, he just plain plays bad.
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Old 05-04-2005, 09:34 AM   #110
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Re: DERB

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Quote:
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He can't win and thats a guarantee.
You're ignorance is brutal.

How many hands do you have in the Party 30?

How many have you played against the player in question?

I suspect you're the ignorant one.

And there is no way in hell this player can be beating that game. He's either running extremely well, or there is something else at play.

Nevermind the 30/17, he just plain plays bad.
I agree he plays bad, but it is possible his bad play works against bad players and just sucks against strong players?
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Old 05-04-2005, 09:58 AM   #111
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Re: DERB

If Party can use screen-scrapes, why can't a computer savy guy as well? That said, if the guy is capping ATo, that means someone 3-bet, and that someone likely has ATo in trouble.
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Old 05-04-2005, 10:15 AM   #112
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Re: DERB

i've logged hands against the guy and think he plays good.

he certainly gets value out of me when i make a 2nd best.
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Old 05-04-2005, 10:34 AM   #113
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Re: DERB

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i've logged hands against the guy and think he plays good.

I've been watching this thread the last few days and while I haven't gone as high as the Party 30 game, there are certainly enough people out there to watch this guy and get a better feel for the game.

I am not of the belief that someone can't have those stats and be a winning player OR a good player - he would be certainly very non-traditional, but he could have developed a style that is suited well to his image / metagame.

The best idea is to get as much information as possible as it's certainly best to examine if he has got onto something rather than blindly dismiss him as a lucky so-and-so or anything.

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Old 05-04-2005, 11:24 AM   #114
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Re: DERB

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Quote:
He can't win and thats a guarantee.
You're ignorance is brutal.
I agree 100%

There are many players who play loose and win in high limit games. This is just one of many. To think otherwise is pure arrogance.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com
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Old 05-04-2005, 11:28 AM   #115
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Re: DERB

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Nevermind the 30/17, he just plain plays bad.
You're missing the point. There's no place in understanding poker for "this CANNOT BE this". Maybe someone can have a 30 VPIP and be a winning player. Maybe they cannot. There is no way we can tell for sure at this incomplete stage of poker knowledge.

Absolutes are for idiots and the narrow minded.
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Old 05-04-2005, 11:44 AM   #116
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Re: DERB

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There's no place in understanding poker for "this CANNOT BE this". Maybe someone can have a 30 VPIP and be a winning player. Maybe they cannot. There is no way we can tell for sure at this incomplete stage of poker knowledge.

Absolutes are for idiots and the narrow minded.
I think you're absolutely correct.

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Old 05-04-2005, 01:25 PM   #117
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Re: DERB

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Quote:
There's no place in understanding poker for "this CANNOT BE this". Maybe someone can have a 30 VPIP and be a winning player. Maybe they cannot. There is no way we can tell for sure at this incomplete stage of poker knowledge.

Absolutes are for idiots and the narrow minded.
I think you're absolutely correct.

At least you acknowledge that there is an upper limit of looseness where a great player can no longer win.
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Old 05-04-2005, 01:27 PM   #118
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Re: DERB

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Quote:
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He can't win and thats a guarantee.
You're ignorance is brutal.
I agree 100%

There are many players who play loose and win in high limit games. This is just one of many. To think otherwise is pure arrogance.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com
You guys are morons. J_V is saying this particular player can't win and that's a guarantee, not that someone with those stats can't win. Get off your high horses and come sit in the game and WATCH the guy before you go calling him ignorant. You guys are your cliche "think outside the box" arguments just sound incredibly foolish to people that have logged a significant number of hands with this guy. You are being results oriented. Go back and read an old thread by ZeeJustin where he outlines "sharks" with a similar strategy. Hint: these "significant winners" all went bust inside a month.

A guy as smart as ZeeJustin is fooled by their short term results so I can understand why people are in this instance as well, but if you haven't played a lot with this guy then don't render judgments on a guy like J_V whom I know has logged significant hours with him.
Jesus.
-James
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Old 05-04-2005, 01:47 PM   #119
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Re: DERB

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He can't win and thats a guarantee.
You're ignorance is brutal.
Awesome.
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Old 05-04-2005, 01:52 PM   #120
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Re: DERB

I've played a decnt amount in the 30 game, but I don't datamine, so I have nowhere near the stats that some of you have to search through. For the life of me, I can't figure out who this is, although I have a few possiblities.

I respect the fact that we don't throw around others screen names in the public forum...but if a PM is appropriate, I would appreciate it. I would like to see what I could learn from this player...I think it could really be educational.
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Old 05-04-2005, 02:06 PM   #121
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Re: DERB

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I've played a decnt amount in the 30 game, but I don't datamine, so I have nowhere near the stats that some of you have to search through. For the life of me, I can't figure out who this is, although I have a few possiblities.

I respect the fact that we don't throw around others screen names in the public forum...but if a PM is appropriate, I would appreciate it. I would like to see what I could learn from this player...I think it could really be educational.
theres nothing to learn...he plays like crap!! i've logged many hands with him and i'm just working w/ data right now to find out just how unlikely it is that he plays like that and wins.

-Barron
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Old 05-04-2005, 07:58 PM   #122
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Re: DERB

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There are many players who play loose and win in high limit games.
I don't believe you. At least if we're talking about 7 handed or more.
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Old 05-04-2005, 08:40 PM   #123
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Re: DERB

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theres nothing to learn...-Barron
I appreciate the work you're doing to quantify his game but certainly there IS something to learn, whether it is precisely what he's doing and how to potentially apply that to our games OR establish that he's doing something shady and then warning PP about it.

Because I don't know about all of you, but I'd like to have that BB/100 stat and I'm interested to see what he's doing to get it (either to know if it's possible OR realize that some are out there cheating to get it and then avoiding them).

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Old 05-04-2005, 10:23 PM   #124
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Re: DERB

If appropriate, could someone let me know as well who this person is. There is a player I can think of that plays the 10/20 15/30 like this, and I was always wondering how he wins. He is very agressive and seems to run people out of the pot an awful lot. This is interesting, because I beat up on him and dont fold to him, but I see others doing it. If someone could let me know, I would really appreciate it.

Jason
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Old 05-04-2005, 11:01 PM   #125
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Re: DERB

I don't know the guy in question so no comments there.

However, one of the biggest online winners overall, someone who never gets mentioned on these forums, runs at ~27% vpip (stars 30-60, 100-200) in 7handed+ games.

If I wasn't absolutely certain he was a big winner, I would consider him a fish. His numbers seem bad, and he does things that I don't understand. But he's destroying the games he plays in.

Just goes to show that simply looking at a VPIP number isn't going to give you the information you need.

Not that that's the case here, just that saying "he plays 30% of hands, he must be losing" isn't really a good argument.
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