c_d, I certainly understand your concerns from a investment standpoint, and agree with some of your points. At the same time, though, I feel like a couple things you said were a little unfair.
1 and 2. A 30 min drive turned out to be 2 hours because of absolutely ridiculous traffic. As soon as I got internet access I insta reg'ed and posted on 2+2. I know it looks shady when I said 30 minutes, but it was a combination of not knowing the time/being anxious to get set up. I'm also not happy that I was unable to take advantage of the equity in the first hour of that tournament. That being said, I have no reason to intentionally late reg, and this was the only event that I had to do this for. Also, I feel like this "30 minutes" thing has become the basis for calling into question my character, which comes across as a little insulting tbh
I should preface 3.-6. by saying that my style of play often tries to get a decent stack for the midgame/late game with antes, where I really do well. Also, I'm not sure if some might be getting slightly the wrong impression from these all-in steals preflop, as I almost never show the pots I take down while I almost always show the ones I lose, because I try to show the big bust out hands.
3. I don't remember opener's stats or the sample size. I remember the opener was tighter than the 3bettor, but still more aggressive than your typical 6-max player. I'd estimate the sample size was something like 40-75 hands-not very big, admittedly. I agree 40/30/20 is a ton, though, which is why I decided to make this move. I also had a great image to do this, barely did **** the entire time I was there. Plus good metagame considerations if I'm looked up and hold/get there.
I don't have SNG wiz, but I can try do some numbers on my own. Estimating opening range at {55+,A7s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+} and calling range at {QQ+, AKs, AKo}, 3betting range at {66+,A4s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo} and calling range {TT+, AQs+, AKo}. In terms of ranges, this means opener is raising 18.7% and calling 2.6%, and 3bettor 3betting 20.7% and calling 3.8%. Opener is folding to 4bet 86.1% of the time, 3bettor is folding 81.6%.
86.1%*81.6% = 70.2% they both fold, and I win t696.
13.9% opener calls, and I'm risking t3183 to win t3723 with 35.8% equity.
18.4% 3bettor calls, and I'm risking t3183 to win t3429 with 32.9% equity.
0.702(+t696) + 0.139(0.358)(+t3723) + 0.139(0.642)(-t3183) + 0.184(0.329)(+t3183) + 0.184(0.671)(-t3183) =
t489 + t185 -t284 + t193 - t393 =
+t190
So it's +EV based on the ranges I assigned. I guess you could say that the sample is small, and that 20% villain 3bet is not an accurate long-term range but you can't know that in-game, he might just as well been a LAGtard near the top of his range.
4. I agree that a couple of these are really a little too light like the 8764 hand, and especially the KKQ4 hand. I'm not sure the KKQ4 is terribad with the stack I thought I had, though. With pretty much only a PSB left I'd only need like 35% equity to call. I think you can include two pairs and pair+big draw combos in villain range, right? In the 9957 hand I pretty much took out trips from his range, based that he's PFR and checked flop. I'm behind just KKxx and JJxx, and the Kc adds a bunch of potential straight and flush draws. I thought his range was weighted towards the latter just based on his raise sizing. I think AAxx is in there sometimes too; I disagree that him cbet/get it in on the flop this deep 3-way is the only way or even the preferred line. The turn might be a more reasonable spot from his perspective since numerous draws are in our betting/raising range while not really so on the flop. Not sure, though, this hand might still be a little light.
I'm generally willing to gamble in PLO (nothing to do with having less % of myself), as long as I'm not in a -EV spot, but these spots were actually not that good. Maybe I'm still in HU PLO mode. I'll try to avoid these kind of spots in the future
5-6. Yeah, these don't seem good either..I don't remember my reasoning behind these two hands. I'll try to get the hhs for these tournaments, but I suspect either 1. their ranges ridiculously wide or 2. they're calling a ridiculously tight range. I'll get back to this.
7. That was my only significant misclick this WCOOP. Happened as I was stacking a bunch of tables and double clicked. Luckily I ran good when it happened
8. Yeah, that was a random $109 on the regular schedule that I had of myself. Sometimes I add a couple tables of my own like $20-$109 so I'm not 1-2 tabling. It wasn't a WCOOP, just felt like posting some **** in the thread.
9. Yeah, that was my thought process exactly. Totally with you in that I'm not looking to get it in pre every time with A2xx 50bb deep.
All said, aside from the 30 minutes thing (you prob don't mean too much by it but that kinda pissed me off) I appreciate the comments. I'm not happy myself when I don't play well, and try to treat investor money as good as my own. I'll try to keep the mistakes in the future to an absolute minimum. Hopefully I can turn these deep hold'em runs into actual final tables