There's a time for taking cool posts and turning them into something funny. This isn't the time. Because
Rake based online poker will die
Surprised? No worries. It's good news.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...sd465m-in-2017
Esports is growing at an insane rate. If you feel like poker is bound to die, i suggest you watch some esports-documentaries (there's one by vice), or google some salaries of famous let's players.
Poker's problem isn't that it's not attractive, or that you can't beat the games.
Poker's problem is that while the game itself has transformed itself into something that's very far removed from casino poker, the sites haven't adjusted.
Rake
Or, more precisely, hand based rake. Let's not dwell on the fact that poker isn't even the type of game that should be monopolized by casinos in the first place, or the game that should be played in casinos (I guess a poker table is smaller than a football field, so maybe that's why it happened this way).
Instead, we'll dwell on the fact that casinos take rake per hand.
That actually makes sense. A poker hand in a casino can take quite long, and the dealer will be quite busy. The table takes up space, and it's pretty big.
All in all, especially considering that poker must have made casinos uncomfortable in the first place (cause people can actually win), hand based rake wasn't a bad solution at all.
Notice that even still, some casinos where smart enough to collect time-based rake instead.
RAKE
So, let's move to online poker. Here, hand based rake is not a strategic decision, it's a joke. "So, we'll try this, and if people actually fall for it then we'll be stinking rich within a year". It's that kind of thing.
It costs a poker site money to open a new poker table. That's a reasonable bit of server time, especially because a poker table might not break for hours to come. A poker hand? What would be the appropriate value?
0.00001 cents?
Poker sites have used a trick to deceive us into thinking that we are buying into a proven system. And now, we are reaching a point where that system has to be questioned, and alternatives have to be found.
Moving forward
Once you have set up a big infrastructure, you won't be able to change it.
Pokerstars won't be able to move away from rake based poker. It's comparable to the UK converting to driving on the right. It doesn't sound that hard...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8239048.stm
So, back to our rake problem. Casino poker and online poker are two different beasts. Online poker is very comparable to esports. Esports is growing like clockwork.
...
Rake based online poker
will die, and quickly.
The future
There's a peculiar thing that you can see on twitch. Streams that stream high stakes poker aren't that successful. It's all about emotions. It's all about that ONE hand that decides everything. It's about entertainment.
Imagine a poker site where you have a number that reflects your skill level, like in chess. Where there's different rankings, and you can be in the one spot.
A poker site that hosts team matches, whatever those might look like.
Most of those matches would not be for money, but for points. Online poker would become like esports, and the difference between play money games and real money games would become smaller and smaller (in league of legends you just play for "points" for ages, and then suddenly you're sitting there and you can win a million dollars).
Of course there are other alternatives. Rake based on poker tables (so if you sit down at a table, you pay $1 for the right to play for 10 hours). Lower rake and more advertising (so Nike would advertise on Pokerstars. This can actually be done by the big sites).
I think i am trying to make 2 main points:
- rake based online poker (per hand) will die
- the future of online poker is connected to esports
Last edited by Alobar; 05-16-2015 at 12:33 PM.