Some adjustments that I think will make my winrate higher

-Stop 3betting combo's like A8s or A2s or T9s OOP vs population

-Open 4bb with strongest range except KK/AA/AK bc I want them to 3bet more often when I hold my premiums - but opening 4bb with something like QKs or AJo or TT certainly should be higher EV in a more passive field

-Min open weakest portions of my range on BTN and SB

-Open way way wider on BTN bc population 3bets less often which allows for much wider BTN opens to be +EV and being IP with any range basically is probably +EV when you have a huge skill advantage

- my SB winrate has always been great with trash opens even over 500k hands, because you only have to win at a rate better than -50bb/100 since folding gives you -50bb/100 , I'll probably be opening close to 70% as min opens then reevaluate later - I'm guessing at higher limits this won't be true bc they will aggressively 3 bet you but for right now, trash is +EV

-I don't think I can widen my opening ranges too much from EP-CO bc I'll most likely get cc'ed more often and playing multi way pots with something like 87s in EP OOP probably isn't +EV, that's why we open 4 bb with KQs etc

-Try to take out my 10,000 hand mandatory spews, but honestly this probably won't happen

-Don't widen your iso ranges too much in SB/MP/CO, but BTN I might be able to go pretty wide

-Probably shouldn't get too loose in my 3 bet ranges, hard to judge with a small 100k sample but 7% 3bet should do pretty well here, 3bet wider IP for sure

-My BB vs BTN xraises with hi card values don't seem to be working, probably pop isn't folding enough of their A hi's and bottom pairs, etc

-Looks like I've been defending stuff like 83s and Q7o and other trash vs SB opens but that's probably going a bit too far. Should be able to defend pretty wide but gotta look at their sizing first. Q7o vs a 3x size might not be +EV but vs min opens I should defend that.

-Found a few spots where I am x'ing nutted combo's OOP and I think that's generally just a terrible idea unless you have sick reads it's higher EV to check. Just a vestige of my former fishy self I guess. Just bet that ****.

-Looks like I'm defending a bit too wide vs 3 bets I think, under the assumption I have a huge skill lvl which is true - but when population under 3 bets it means their range will be pretty strong and that also means they will typically be barrelling and with big sizings sooo....Defending **** like 98o vs 3bets or 84s probably isn't +EV

Honestly I think a lot of this weird "outside of range" **** was bc I was told to cap myself at 4 normal tables and I was so bored out of my mind I was forcing action that was -EV.

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Cliff notes lulz

Open way wider IP and in SB - Don't get too crazy w/A5o/A9o/96s etc in CO etc
Open 4x with strongest ranges
3bet bluff less often: Take out stuff like 97s/Q9s/A8s etc
Stop defending trash like 83s or Q7o BB vs 3x SB opens
Stop x'ing nuts OOP, it's probably stupid
Stop x raising non value or nut draws BB vs BTN oop
Iso more IP
Stop spewing one stack every 10,000 hands (although it's so hard for me lol)
Use 2x or 4x opens however you want, it's anon tables after all

_____________________

Let's get this **** to 10bb

have i just transported back to 2010???

glgl

being anon thats probably fine if a reasonable % of the pop is doing it and you don't have a static flop cbet sizing when IP/OOP. if the pop doesn't help you out at all though you're gonna look mighty recognizable as you move up the pools and will get f'd with

I say this because I also play the anon games but its the reg tables. I do some things that are pretty recognizable to anyone paying attention and even though its anon there's some interesting meta with a couple of the other guys who play my same hours everyday.

edit: especially one player in particular. I can spot him most days after an orbit or two and I'm pretty sure he can with me.

yeah to be fair I would never do this at 200NL (unless it's vs a BB whale then I might actually 10x it lolz)

but 50 NL, **** 'em

correct, and that's why I specified as you move up. gl with it!

Curious why you want to open smaller with KK+/AK? If you are opening to the bigger sizing, then they should 3b and fold more, and call less, since they are getting a worse price. Are you saying your pool 3b more against a smaller sizing?

Every pool 3bets more vs smaller sizing and less vs bigger sizing. What they "should do" is totally different than what they "actually do"

Just gotta look at population data to answer these questions. No guessing needed.

I mean take this to a logical conclusion

If you suddenly face an 8x open with QKs are you going to be 3betting at a higher or lower frequency? The obvious answer is lower.

That isn't the correct adjustment.

? Please don't try to tell me you will 3bet QKs more often when facing an 8x open than when you face a 3x open lol

Not only that, I don't think the assumption that they're 3betting less is accurate either. What I believe you're misinterpreting is that while they don't necessarily 3bet more of their range as sizings get bigger on avg, what ends up happening is they just dump a lot of hands that should be getting moved from flats to 3bets straight into their folding range.

in theory you should

That's actually the main reason I want to open 4x. The logical conclusion of this strategy change is you get to play less pots OOP and more pots IP vs the blinds if you are in EP/MP/CO bc you get less cold callers. Or at the very least there is a greater chance you get HU vs 1 villain than multi way pots.

but imo the person most likely to call would be the big blind bc they feel they need to defend it, which is ripe for us bc we play HU IP vs a weak player.

This strategy is exactly what I had to do in live games to thin the field with my stronger range. But there we aren't opening 4x. We are opening 6x or 8x usually to prevent 7 way pots.

Ofc the 3b frequency is going to be lower facing a bigger 3b, it is theoretically optimal too. What are the downsides of your opening strat? How could your opponent exploit your opening size? Also playing HU doesnt necessarily mean its going to be more EV than MW pots. In fact, players most likely make more mistakes MW than HU, so trying to play HU should not be a reason to opening bigger pre.

The proper adjustment to an 8x is probably just to start 3 bet jamming some middling hands to punish you for opening too wide. When you are excluding your top end hands from the bigger size, it gets punished more by 3b jamming. Anyways, what generally happens is that you face a 3b more often when you open 8x, because people just won't have a flatting range vs your ridiculous sizing, as they aren't getting the odds on a call. This sucks worse when you are opening a gutted range for the bigger sizing, because now you invested 8bb and have to fold a lot of your range.

It's like being transported to 2010 again. Opening to a bigger sizing out of position, while also excluding strong hands from this range, is likely a disaster, as you're playing a bloated pot out of position more often, with a range that doesn't have any of your top hands, which is terrible. You have a ton of incentive to keep the pot smaller out of position, not larger.

From the BTS preflop bible:




I mean, if you are going to open 4x, that's fine, but just use that size. No need to pump a bunch of money into the pot with a gutted range.

yeah, from a purely Game Theory pov, your raise sizes should be smallest UTG and get larger all the way to the BTN. nobody really ever talks about this, though. probably is because it's not best in most environments.

OP, what's your plan for corona if wherever you live has an outbreak

more importantly, what's your plan if you get it and need hospitalization?

Lucas' gonna pay for it, it's part of the deal.

Wait a second...

I'm sure he is young enough to ride it out, way worse diseases out there.

Big things coming, budget should go up close to $600/month - the biggest it will have been so far. I'll be moving to a new place with AC, and a fridge and maybe I take daily Muay Thai next month. Going to be eating a lot, etc. I tested out how I felt about a bigger room with AC by staying one night at a local nice hotel - and I'm ready to pay a bit extra and just run the AC almost 24/7. The room itself should only cost around $130. Then another $70/month if i run it 24/7.

I'm thinking 1/4 of my total monthly projected monthly profits can go towards my monthly budget. This way I can pretty much do whatever I want within reason and collect enough profits to aggressively shot 200NL soon.

---Chapter 5---
$700/month, Muay Thai Every Day, 6 Months Left on Visa, Eating Like A Whale

This will be a big update. Just moved into my new room. It's about 2.5x the size of my old room, has AC, a medium fridge, and a kitchen. All for 4,300 Baht ($140 USD) - (Will put cliff notes at the end lol)






Stayed at a hotel with a girl I've been talking to.

Same Filipina girl I mentioned from previous posts. She's falling in love with me but I don't feel attached. I catch her staring at me when I'm just laying in bed or sleeping. Awwww. She's a sweet girl but not marriage material for me.


This was a nice dinner with my Thai sister a few days ago. The 2 center plates are literally just heaping mounds of pork belly in a spicy sauce with sliced hot peppers.



She got ****ing drunk and I had to take her keys from her bc it was raining and all she had was a motorbike. ****ing wouldn't take my money for a taxi and I so I threw her keys on top of a 10 foot pillar and she found some random ass rake and tried to scrape the keys off the pillar lmfao. Had to pretty seriously fight her at one point because she gripped the keys as hard as she could and I had to push her against the wall just hard enough to break her grip because I didn't want to slice up her hand from the sharp keys. She sat on the ground crying her eyes out after that. But better than her ending up dead or paralyzed. Wasn't gonna let her drive home when she almost fell down the stairs walking to her motorbike.

This was pretty delicious on a hot day. 20 baht or 0.75cents USD. Homemade too.


Daily food intake will be around 2,500 calories unless I start taking shots of olive oil which I'm not against doing. But I might prefer to add in another rice or noodle dish to get more carbs. $200 a day total.

Meal 1 will be pretty much right after I wake up. 4 cups of whole milk, a 3 egg Thai omelette that has minced pork and chicken, avocado, corn, baby mushrooms and sprouts. Milk and avocado is pretty expensive here so that will be around 1,000 calories and lots of protein directly after I wake up.

I made a deal with the Muay Thai teacher to do 5 days a week , 2 hours a day for 3,500 baht or $120. That's kind of a steal tbh. But 3,500 baht is a looot of money to a thai local. Next month might be the hardest month of my life but it should pay off quite heavily by training ****ing hard every day except Sat/Sun where I will just sleep and grind.

3 typical meals that will add up to 2,500 calories and $200/a day along with the 4 cups of whole milk and 3 egg omelette I will consume directly after waking up.







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Budget now looks like the following:
Apartment $140
Electricity and AC $100
Cleaning/Laundry $50
Food $200
Water $30
Muay Thai $120
Entertainment $50
Haircut, taxi, phone $15

$700 total

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Snapshot of my HM2



My winrate is 6.5 so far after 100k hands. 25NL and 50NL combined is 8bb. I am budgeting for 5bb long term which is on the safer side. Projected monthly profits will be around $2,000 to $2,800 with 80k hands/month. So $700 budget is 1/3 of my low estimate and 1/4 of my high estimate.
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Cliff Notes:

Budget started at $200/month now it is $700/month
Moved into a new apartment 2.5x the size of old apartment
Will train 2 hours a day in Muay Thai 5 days a week
Eating a looooot now - no diet bullshit, just eat whatever I want
Still enjoying random nights out with local Thai beer

Got Muay Thai tonight actually so gotta prepare.

dude, you need to see a therapist

This thread gets better and better. Great update!

Hope you didnt pay for the muay thai in advance...

And please stop calling her your Thai sister. You're a farang, she will never ever consider you a Thai-style brother. If she refers to you as her brother, she is just patronizing you.

I mean it seems fine to me that he'd prevent her from taking her motorbike?

he may need to see a therapist but certainly not for that, it was the right call

xeno... methinks you've been an expat too long

preventing an inebriated person from riding a motorbike is not what's wrong here

1. he keeps referring to a girl as his sister despite that they used to sleep together and he gets hjs in her presence

2. he knows said sister wants a real relationship and she foolishly probably sees him as her way out of thailand but he is deluding himself into believing she is like a sister

3. keeps stringing along said girl by doing date type things with her, it's borderline abusive

4. knowing she has a motorbike to ride home, he sits back and watches her get sloppy drunk

5. then he takes the keys - which was the first responsible thing he did but then ruins it by putting it in an inaccessible location and watch her perform like a drunken monkey attempting to recover them - that was just some sadistic stuff - at this point it's clear it's not about helping her, he's just being a dick and lording over her due to his own insecurities

6. plan obviously didn't work as she got the keys down and then instead of doing something civil like realizing she's going to get them back or just sitting on her bike to prevent her from even using the keys he then physically slams her against the wall

7. he then writes on a blog about physically slamming a drunk girl against a wall without any awareness of how that will fly

8. he then leaves his "sister" sitting on the street crying her eyes out

many of these things individually are whatever, but combined as a whole and with his general state of mind as well - he's just being a really nasty person and that's not going to change until he works on himself

he needs to realize he doesn't actually care about her at all and the entire sister thing is a concept he invents so he can give himself excuses to spend time with her to make himself feel better about himself - which all likely stems from his youth being abused

i suspect it's much the same with the other girl, just as he keeps talking about "i don't want her to fall in love with me" but he's full of it because if he were genuinely concerned about that then he'd stop seeing her and stringing her alone

many people who are abused find reasons and excuses to justify them going on to abuse further generations just as they were abused themselves and thus the cycle continues - he's clearly going down that path already, even if it's only in baby increments for the time being

he needs to work on himself and only then will he be able to start having a healthy relationship with the world