i think u just kind of have to accept the fact that your sleep schedule is gonna be ****ed as long as you keep doing something that requires you to play long, inconsistent hours early in the morning. Best thing to do is learn how work around it with meal timings, gym sessions etc. so you dont become too unproductive. This has been a massive problem for me as the football team i support plays at 2-3 am every few days and you cant record games (**** OPTUS), so i would stay up all night, sleep for ages and then obsess about how to get my sleep schedule back. I never got anywhere, so just embrace it

Yeah you're right. TBH I just need to pull myself out of bed even at stupid times and get on with **** more. But did the morning/day grind today. About to head to bed at a reasonable hour which is super exciting :')

In the same way that night shifts pay 50% higher than day shifts for standard jobs, you'll find that your win rate is 50% higher doing the evening/night grind against the whales and maniacs than it would be against the daytime nits. Think of it like the penalty rate that you're being paid in exchange for f**king up other aspects of your life, such as your quality of sleep, your health and your ability to socialise. The daytime grind is healthier for you, but expect less action and a smaller win rate.

Hah yeah, pretty much. There was actually one mega spastic yesterday morning which was kinda surprising. But today and yesterday was basically just a bunch of bad regs... no one giving up toooooo much money. Definitely still beatable and whatnot but doesn't quite compare to the night shift which I'll be resuming next week!

Daily Review - Thurs 14/12

Hours Played: 6.3
Profit: $585

Day shift again this morning. Ran fairly well in terms of AIEV I must say but nothing too out of the ordinary. Glad to have finished the week strong results-wise, even if the volume was a bit off. I had to do some last minute shopping before tomorrow's party.

I'm hosting pre-drinks for the rave tomorrow night which I'm suuuuuuuuuuper excited about. Then Saturday I'll be recovering/grinding before heading back out for a party on Sunday. So will be a pretty flat out weekend for me. Let's review the week real quick.

Weekly Review - 8/12-14/12

Hours Played: 38
Profit: $1,362

Fairly good week, only missed volume by 2 hours which I'm pretty happy with tbh. Always nice to win money closing in on Christmas.

Results since start of thread: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AkK4doh8PHLEgk6pBpFJrgcokPKM

Not going to set any finite goals for the forthcoming week. I know volume will be ****. But I'd like to get a good session in on Saturday night at least. I also need to do Christmas shopping at some stage next week too. Hopefully chase down some decent volume after I'm done partying too!

It won't let me view the link... any chance you could screenshot the graph and post it here?

Yeah sure, I'll transpose it when I get a sec this morning.

Daily Update - Sat 16/12

Hours Played: 7.2
Profit: $389

Was almost going to leave after a few hours tonight because I wasn't really feeling it, but then 2 spastics rock up and make it too difficult for me to leave early. Last night I spent probably $350 when I went out - just stupid **** like buying girlies entry to raves, buying way too much Malaysian food, way too much on drinks etc. Kinda surprised it only ended up being $350 though, so I guess that's a win?

Back on the social grind tonight (Sunday night) and imagine I'll probably spend way too much on drinks again. Then that'll be it til Christmas so hopefully resume a decent grind schedule on Monday.

350 on a night out seems excessive af if you do the pretty routinely...

I don't go out very often. But decided I'd splurge a little in December because I've hardly been out in weeks and because I just hate being a tight ass when I party. That said, some choices I make financially when I'm out are just down right dumb. :')

Make sure to invest most of what you make at the tables - you are missing a huge stock market run up - and the crypto run up will make you cry if you miss that. taking time off to learn how to do it will keep you making $$$ even when running bad.

^

I've put a lot into stocks/crypto this year and put in more every month

I'm already well over-invested in crypto. Not sure what the best way to get into stocks is but at some stage next year I'd like to diversify my portfolio a bit and add some more investments. Thing is that currently, looking at moving up to 5/10, I want to have most of my net worth available in cash/accessible for bankroll reasons. Which is why I'm nervous about having so much of my net in crypto. If I just leave it in crypto and run bad initially at 5/10 and then **** bubbles, I'm pretty well ****ed. That said, I definitely like the idea of investing but I'm not sure what sorta investing BRM I should do.

I might have to look into that app you said you used for stocks!

Highly recommend. Super easy. Check out the finance subforum. I read that a lot now.

Crypto is a good place to have money right now, depending on the amount you have to invest i might stay away from BTC, you can get better gains with less risk elsewhere.

As for missing a stock market run up, you havent the ASX has underperformed compared the S&P, DOW and NASDAQ this year, youve missed out on 8% gains on the ASX200.

$350 on a night out is fine i spent $250 on mid stength at the WACA on thursday

Enjoy this thread meale, has inspired me to incorporate a bit of live into my grind... good results. Keep it up. One question - what do you do to keep yourself entertained if you're card dead for hours? That has always been my problem live.

Loosen up and get more creative. If you're card dead literally for "hours" more than once in a blue moon, youre most likely playing too tight.

Would be interested to hear justification for this statement.
Why can you expect better gains elsewhere? And why is there less risk elsewhere?

Being too tight definetly isn't a problem for me, when card dead I get spewy with 3betting hands I shouldn't, calling pre too much etc. So was wondering what people do to counter that, I guess it's just down to being disciplined. But do you take anything to the table with you etc? I guess you can use the time to observe opponents/bet sizes aswell.

Also where I play the dealers are pretty bad and slow, so it's very possible to go hours being card dead because you just aren't getting in that many hands per hour.

I have my phone with me of course, but I mostly stay off if it and observe everyone as closely as possible.

I literally know nothing at all about the stocks so will have a variety of markets I will need to look at next year.

Just stay disciplined. That's all you can do. Stick to your ranges and stick stick to your strategy. , !?!

Week Before Christmas, Crypto BRM/Life BRM, & Melbourne Trip

So I've been rather slack lately on my volume as well as on my spendings. I definitely expected this though. Plenty of raves and parties and whatnot which means naturally my volume is going to suck for the next couple weeks or so. I've been eating out a ton lately though and it's just getting a bit unnecessary - that coupled with expensive nights out on the piss makes for a pretty expensive December.

Anyway, best thing I can do is tighten up my spending a bit and make sure I'm putting in good volume on the days I'm not partying. And take less days off. Rest of the week will look like this for me (I'm writing it here so I stay accountable).

Tuesday - Poker 8+ hours
Wedesday - Christmas shopping, date with girl, no poker
Thursday - Poker 8+ hours
Friday - Rave night
Saturday - Poker 8+ hours
Sunday - Poker 8+ hours
Monday - Christmas with family, no poker

That leaves really only 32 hours for poker for the next 7 days which I'll be happy with considering it's simply that time of the year. After Christmas, I want to get back into the swing re grinding and as far as I can see I'll only have 29th booked for a rave and 31st NYE party somewhere.

Then the plan for January is to just grind hard til about the 19th. Will fly down to Melb and play Flight 3 of the opening 1k on the Friday and hopefully not have to fire Flight 4 on Saturday. These two flights should be the juiciest. Then the plan is to just play a bunch of 5/10 for maybe a week, maybe a few days - just depends largely on results and how long I'm able to stay at my mate's place.

When I return home, which could be anywhere from 21st-30th of Jan (who knows maybe longer), at that moment I will make some fairly big life/financial/crypto decisions. Basically, do I move to Melbourne now, immediately, or wait til closer to May. Ideally I'll want to leave ASAP but it basically depends on the availability of 5/10 game - basically I'm hoping my trip in January confirms that Melbourne is the right place for me. It also depends on the price of BTC and ETH at that particular time. If BTC is anywhere around 20-25k USD and ETH is 700+ then I will likely sell up and so I have a 5/10 bankroll. Also depends on my poker results @ Melbourne... i.e. did I lose a bunch or win a bunch on the trip. If I lost a good chunk of money, I might want to stay in Bris and rebuild for a bit. If my results over the next month or so are bad/losing, then I might want to move a bit later. Realistically, I can fairly easily move whenever and just play 2/5 or 5/5 if there are bankroll concerns, but I'd definitely prefer to be able to instantly begin playing 5/10 right from the get go in Melbourne. I think the net worth I'm looking for to do that is about $57k. That gives me a $30k bankroll (30BIs) and $25k as a liferoll - or 35k as a bankroll and 20k as a liferoll, however you want to compartmentalise it. And that leaves me with $2k to aid with the transition down there, maybe take a few days off to relax/party here before leaving. I also need to be able to find a reasonably priced apartment that's within walking distance to Crown. Ideally I'd like a one bedroom/studio because I'm honestly already sick of living with messy roommates... after having been out of home only for 4 or so months :'). If I can score something for $350-$400 a week for a furnished apartment, bills and internet included, ideally in Southbank, that would be perfect. Being walking distance to a card room that's open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week will be absolutely perfect for degenning some long hours if I need to.

So that's basically where I'm at - roughly a month til I need to make some fairly serious decisions. Re Bitcoin specifically, if the price gets to US$25k before that day comes, I'll more than likely sell. I see people on Reddit posting saying they sold all their BTC and I just smh like it's pretty silly to sell your entire portfolio imo and because of that, I don't really want to sell all my BTC. So I think what I'll do is, when I reach that $57k net worth, instead of throwing it all into the bank and getting to work on the 5/10 games, I'll keep probably 10k of that as an "investment" fund. I want to take investing proper seriously because while I love poker, I think it'd be wise to put myself in the position to give myself the opportunity "retire" early so to speak. Whole not putting all your eggs in one basket thing as well. 10k won't be much obv, just 20% of my net, but I want to treat this money as though it's effectively dead to me... As in, I couldn't really care less if BTC bubbles out and I lose the 10k. I also think it's wise initially when moving up stakes to be a little more conservative regarding BRM. I have played 40 minutes 5/10 lifetime. I don't really have no idea what my winrate will be. I imagine a lot of the donations you get in 2/5, which largely comprise my winrate, you simply won't get at 5/10. I could see my hourly realistically being anywhere from $50-$100, I simply have no idea what to expect. Heaven forbid the games are just goodreg filled constantly and $50/hr is unattainable... Realistically speaking, if I can't make at least $50/hr in a 5/10 game, either I have a lot of work to do or I'm playing in stupid tough games and need to move again (if that's the case, I imagine I'd be looking at Sydney or London, although I hear the games are tuffer in London, but maybe my hourly at a London 2/5 could be higher than $50, idk). I would guess that $70/hr is probably definitely attainable in Melbourne 5/10 games though... I also plan on taking these games extremely seriously, profiling different players and making more of a concerned effort to "study". 2/5 for me ATM is simply cruise control. It's just sit down, sit on phone disinterested, wait for a hand or donation. That's it. But when I begin playing 5/10, I want to ban my phone, force myself to watch everything, be 100% focused and alert the entire session, take breaks, improve posture, etc - basically put myself in the best position to win as much as possible.

So as I was saying, the $10k I set aside for "investing" I think will be entirely for crypto and with a large focus on alts. Until I have a larger investment bankroll, I don't really care too much for investing in anything other than crypto because I'm basically chasing the highest yield option until I have enough money that diversifying into other markets becomes wise. And besides, staying on top of the altcoin grind really does take time if you do it seriously. If I were to guess, ATM my strategy would look something like the following:

~20% BTC
~25% ETH
~20% LTC
~20% Ripple, IOTA, Neo, Augur, Monero
~15% On some really aggressive punts, new coins, ICOs, etc

I'll do it properly this time and actually track everything - will be super cool to see how much someone can make % wise in a year with this sort of setup.

Also once I've settled into the 5/10 games, have saved a bit of money, as soon as I get the opportunity to (maybe at 70k net worth) I'll start funneling more cash into crypto. I think we have a fairly small window left before crypto goes mainstream and so I want to ram cash into it as fast as possible - I think it would probably be smarter for me to invest spare cash in crypto before MTT series and whatnot because I think there's just an insane amount of money to be made.

If I have a spare $10K, I could have some fun playing a few MTTs... depending on travel costs, any one MTT trip might average out to something like 70% ROI - but obv it's EXTREMELY high variance. However if I throw $10k into crypto, although the duration to see a return is longer (i.e. a year) I think you would EASILY see >70% ROI ainec. I don't know anyone in crypto who hasn't made an insane return on their investment, so I think that it would be more wise for me to pick investing over MTTs when I start earning some money from 5/10.

Literally just rambled on about **** for waaaay too long. OOh, I also bought this book today:



So far so good, mostly quite dense philosophical stuff. Metaphysics, ontology, new realism, etc. Should keep me entertained while I sit on the wait list tomorrow!

Also wanted to see how "on track" I am for the year re volume. Said I want to play 2000 hours a year now that I'm playing full time (i.e. 40 hours a week). I basically have til Jan 28 to play another 260 hours or so if I want to be at 1,000 hours at the 6 month point. That's another 41 days away. On average I need to play 6.3 hours a day for the next 41 days. Or 44 hours a week - simply won't happen. End of year festivities are slowing things down instead of speeding them up and the move to Melbourne will be another obstacle. The good news is, if I'm able to find a place near the casino in Melb, the fact that there's plenty of tables which means I'll spend significantly less time on waitlists should mean that I can get my weekly volume average up in the second 6 months. I'm not too concerned at this stage, I kind of like the idea of degenning 50 hour weeks toward the end of my calendar year - kinda reminds me of the old Stars days where you'd get guys playing insane hours to chase down VPPs for SNE. Basically, i'm hoping that with the move I'll put myself in a spot where getting a ton of volume in is easy work. I wonder how many hours I've wasted sitting in the casino this year alone waiting for a seat.

Anyway, enough drivel for now.

Good post and gl, just want to comment on this bit. I feel like I appear to be a super bear in PG+C, so disclaimer that I'm honestly long on tons of crypto and have been for over a year.

That said, this is extremely dangerous thinking. EV 70% ROI just isn't available to people like us over a year. Think about how prices are set, and wether you really know that much more than the price setters. Expose yourself to crypto remains a very smart choice, but expecting these kind of returns is super unhealthy and actually what worries me the most about the markets right now, too many people with unrealistic expectations can definitely snowball into a huge sell off.

Finally, IOTA. It's Mcap right now is more than facebook in 2009. Facebook had 300 million users, billion dollar revenue streams at that point. IOTA team has a currently unusable product and developers who lie about being in partnership with Microsoft. I'll leave it to you to decided whether you think it's a good investment.

Yeah I'll be willing to admit that I've probably just ran particularly well over my small crypto sample but for the past year it has seemed as though I couldn't put a foot wrong. The only losing/breakeven coin I had was NEO and if I'd held it for a week longer I'd have made 50% on it. It might feel as though I'm godmoding crypto because like 70% of my portfolio was BTC, I don't know.

I made 150% on IOTA and only had it for a week or so. I sold because of the whole microsoft thing and because I was made aware of the extant vulnerabilities in the framework. But now they've got a working wallet and there's been reports of some extremely quick transactions.

I still think IOTA and the Tangle has the potential to become huge and believe in the technology, I just think we've a long way to go still. If a zero transaction fee coin becomes successful, and IOTA can go there, it'll become the main currency for trading other cryptos which will be huge for its development.

I think if you have a keen eye for picking the promising coins in their infancy and the majority of your portfolio is in the blue chip coins, 70% in 12 months isn't unrealistic. If we look at the last 12 months for example...

BTC is up 2,300%...
ETH is up 10,000%...
LTC nearly 10,000%...
XRP ~13,000%...

Like these are just the blue chip coins. If you bought these at pretty much any stage in the year, you'd have made a good return on them. Obv I'm not talking about day trading any of these - I wouldn't go there since I'm a huge fish at trading and would just be clicking buttons, but I mean put it this way... If someone buys the above 4 coins today and doesn't touch them for 12 months, I really struggle to see how you can't make 70% return. If you bought 4 spooky ICOs and held them for a year you might become a millionaire afterwards but you'll probably lose money.

IDK I'm probably still largely clicking buttons at crypto but it's tough not to be results oriented when it seems so difficult to lose?

Also,

Fully realise it's a punt. Not really "expecting" 70% returns, it's pretty difficult to expect anything out of crypto. If I had to guess though, just about any 12 month position in crypto is going to yield more than that at this stage in the game. Obv not sustainable etc and obv I'm extremely bullish re this chit.

with a 70% return/year, you would be richer than bill gates in 28 years, it's insane to expect to make 70%/year from any investment/speculation. I know you realize it's not sustainable long term, but if you expect those returns in 1 year, it's almost as crazy as thinking that you can be richer than him. If you're making 20%/year in USA, you're killing the market by a huge margin, basically that's the return that the best investor in the world wants to have in the long run.

After lurking most threads around here, specially from higher stakes players that are into crypto, I realized that there's a ton of things going wrong in there and that people are very optimistic about that, this post nails it:

This is from a very smart person, that can make a very good amount of money from poker, when someone like that post stuff like that, you can see how hyped crypto is and how people are kinda losing their heads.

Crypto is basically an useful currency that will be used in the future and that's it, the speculation people are making behind it is just insanity. That kind of speculation isn't new, we had crap like that since 1700, which even Isaac newton, which is probably the smartest person that ever lived lost a ton of money in a speculative bubble.

This system only works because other people are getting hyped by the good returns of those who were already invested in it, so when the whales stop entering the market, it will stabilize and will fall back to a reasonable price. And guess what: when one of those currencies starts dropping, specially the major ones, all other ones will fall like crazy. And you don't want to be into it when that happens.

The other reason I don't like buying crypto(or even taking time studying those) is that this market has almost no regulation, which it means those guys that own the currencies can do a ton of crap and get away with it. Correct me if I'm wrong, because I don't know much about that topic, but can't an owner of a crypto currency just print some to him out of nowhere? Couldn't any shady stuff be going on in there? If people are doing that, then it automatically takes EV off the people who buy crypto, which makes it even worse.

Now about investing/speculation: buying currencies isn't investing, it's speculation. When you make an investment, you're buying something with a very solid fundamental knowledge about the stuff you're getting into. An example would be what would you look when you are going to buy a farm: check the soil, see if it has the right proportions of minerals/organic stuff, see if it's mostly flat, how good is the grass and other stuff. Your decisions are based on specific stuff that when compared to the price you're paying, will likely pay you off in the long run in an objective point of view. The same goes to buying stocks and looking if the company is at a fair price and is doing really well.

Speculation is just random and there's not an objective point of view that can explain it or predict it. Some people try using other areas of science to do well in speculation, but in the end it's really hard to prove something to consistently work when it comes to speculation. One example is people using this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismometer to predict if the dollar will go up or down related to another currency. Usually you don't want to be into speculation, specially in hyped markets like those, if I were you I would just sell all your crypto, be ok with what you've made and never touch it again unless you're using it as a currency ofc.

I know it's hard to just quit that, our minds get super optimistic by huge money over short time periods, but that's the wisest decision you can make. I don't like posting stuff like this here because few people even listen to it anyway. But I can't just sit and see people getting owned without warning them(people do it a ton in my thread about poker though, thanks guys haha).