A Thought Experiment - 2017 PGC
03-03-2017
, 10:04 AM
Hand 16 : A6s
With these stack sizes I would prefer to c/r the flop and try to get it the river cheaply to try to maximize the chance of realizing our equity?
Hand 17 :A7o
I never bet my made flushes here on the turn, expect the bigger ones (the smaller ones can make a boat on the river), is that a big mistake?
Hand 18 : 65s
I like the flop C/R but on the turn I would just call, as we do get a nice price to hit our flush. On blank river I would C/R again as a bluff and weak made hands or bet out small with the hands that crush the board.
BTW, way too little time on my hands to give a well thought out answer to all the hands. I apologize. I hope to do better in the future
With these stack sizes I would prefer to c/r the flop and try to get it the river cheaply to try to maximize the chance of realizing our equity?
Hand 17 :A7o
I never bet my made flushes here on the turn, expect the bigger ones (the smaller ones can make a boat on the river), is that a big mistake?
Hand 18 : 65s
I like the flop C/R but on the turn I would just call, as we do get a nice price to hit our flush. On blank river I would C/R again as a bluff and weak made hands or bet out small with the hands that crush the board.
BTW, way too little time on my hands to give a well thought out answer to all the hands. I apologize. I hope to do better in the future
03-04-2017
, 02:20 PM
still open through 9pm PST tonight and the freeroll is on obv . I'll look for better ways of formatting this week, but please don't forget to sub and contribute
havent played online in a while now. did lapc and built t10 stack on day1, but got into a dumb spot early on in day2 where i couldnt fold trips.
really looking forward to getting a few days of grinding in. life has been good/healthy. lots of biking, running, beach time. weather has been perfect to start the month
thanks for all feedback, i'm reading/considering/and will make some replies myself and address all non strategy related questions as well
. I'll look for better ways of formatting this week, but please don't forget to sub and contributehavent played online in a while now. did lapc and built t10 stack on day1, but got into a dumb spot early on in day2 where i couldnt fold trips.
really looking forward to getting a few days of grinding in. life has been good/healthy. lots of biking, running, beach time. weather has been perfect to start the month
thanks for all feedback, i'm reading/considering/and will make some replies myself and address all non strategy related questions as well
03-05-2017
, 12:20 AM
Regarding your hands,
Hand 1 - 3Bing pre is standard. When we get 4bet, I think this is just a fold.
I don't think a nitty reg is ever going to be cold 4betting light here and might even flat AK pre. Our SPR going to the flop is going to be just 2, so we don't really give ourselves much room to manuever. Flop I think folding is fine, but if we are calling pre, isn't this the flop we want to float on that doesn't have a Jack in it? The advantages are most any club/Q/J/T/7 are good for our range, the disadvantage is the times a blank turn rolls off or our opponent doesn't fold to a shove, even if a favorable turn I listed above hits.
Hand 2 - Standard raise pre, flop is an easy cbet. Turn gets tricky. This is a turn card that is pretty blank, it doesn't help our range a ton, but at the same time does not help our opponent's range either. We do pick up 8 more outs though, so I like betting and to your size. River I hate jamming. We rep pretty thin and this card is frankly, very good for our opponent's range and not so much for ours. I'm not positive you open JTo pre and you definitely do not with T8o, which reduces the # of straights we get to the river with. I think we have to sigh x/f.
Hand 3 - Flop is pretty interesting. Although over a small sample, the SB is playing a lot of hands. If this is a good reg I'm going to be suspicious when he leads here into 4 people, if this is a fish, I'm raising all day for value since a fish's range will be more weighted towards draws/top pairs here than sets. Turn sizing looks good, river is (puke). I think I'm sighing really hard and folding here. Yes, this is a lovely card for villain to bluff at, but his line signals a lot of much better hands, all of which hit this runout hard. On the other hand, only needing to be good here 22% of the time makes me inclined to F it call off the river bet.
Hand 4 - Against a player who is frequently check-raising flops, I like just calling this flop with KQ in order to keep worse hands in his range in. I think he will play pretty honestly should we decide to 3bet this flop. We'll have some floats here as well so calling flop is best imo. Turn call is standard. River is awkward. I think an opponent this aggro would be firing most of his bluffs on the river so our SDV isn't as much as we think. I would probably shove river with the J, K or A of spades, bet small with the T, 9, or 8 of spades, and check everything else. I don't think we should ever be bluffing the river.
Hand 5 - Pre is fine, flop I may check back, however if you are going to bet, we def need a plan for when we get x/r'd. Calling the x/r is certainly fine. Turn is tricky, I'd be worried about getting blown off our equity here, though most hands that are coming over the top we likely don't have much against. Our opponent's first reaction isn't going to be "he must have air here" when we reraise and like you said, we give ourselves a very good price on a bluff with a lot of good river cards we can bluff shove or value shove on. Very wp hand.
Hand 6 - These spots are always tricky. At first glance, our opponent is very aggro. This turn card obv blows for us and in game I just sigh fold. SPR is another big issue here, If we had 8x, we are pretty much always going to be x/shoving this turn against a bet because of how often it goes x/x on the river so by calling we kind of turn our hand face up. I think you played this hand fine.
Hand 7 - Preflop, flop, and turn are all fine. River is kind of odd. Our opponent does not bet a lot of hands for value here that are not super strong and someone that tight does not flat KT here + we block it. QJ/KQ/AQ are certainly all in his range here, the latter he may 3B pre and KQ he prob bets flop with, though. I think this is a spot where I'm just sigh x/fing. Against
a very good reg or a fish I'd never x/jam here, against an avg thinking reg, your play is a lot more justifiable. A high risk, high reward shove indeed!
Hand 8 - Flat preflop is meh vs a 20bb stack opening. Flop and turn are both fine, the problem with this river is that it is much better for our range than his and he likely won't be firing any bluffs. I think river is a x/f. I don't think you would have considered this in the moment, but maybe leadout shove the river? It's so good for our range and we don't let v check back his 1 pair hands.
Hand 9 - Snapfolding pre in a $700 MTT. Flop/turn are fine. River I'm checking. We just don't have a lot of value hands that triplebarrel this runout and it doesn't help your cause that it is 3 off ITM and people are going to be tightening up in general. If you're going to bluff this river, I think going like 12bbs is going to be more profitable than jamming. 33/44/A3s/A4s are all definitely in his range here imo.
Hand 10 - Ugh, really weird spot. I think you played it fine though. In villain's shoes, I don't think he expects us to fold top pair on the river, and he has plenty of 3x in his range. If he has 45/65/A4/A5, I think he's more likely to give it up on this river. People generally don't bluff in these spots, as people aren't folding top pair or better enough. KQ is a better bluff catcher than AK in this spot as AK blocks some of his Ax floats that decide to bluff here. In game I might just say **** it and call, but this is really a guessing spot. Wp by villain with whatever he had.
Hand 11 - This is a spew off with AQ. 3bet pre is fine, however when an 18/12/8 guy 4bets to the size he did, it just screams nuts. At t60 he isn't going to be bluffingtoo often here and flatting a lot of hands like TT and even some suited aces. Against an aggro monkey I think your shove is fine, vs this particular opponent I just fold AQ. My 5B shove range is probably QQ+ AK+ and I'd flat call some speculative hands like 87s, JJ/TT I'd probably flat if you 3bet with them here. I don't think a 5bet bluff range is neccesary here.
Hand 12 - Preflop and flop are fine. Turn call is good and I call all Tx OTT,
river I like this re-raise alot. Villain in this hand is completely capped and we will definitely be re-raising all AK/JJ/TT/QQ here on the river and possibly KK/AA. The only downside is you bet a lot of your value hands (outside of AK), on this flop given the stack depth. Certainly a great spot to overbluff since we can raise much wider for value. There is a chance you were bluffing with the best hand here
Hand 13 - This deep I'm always betting the flop with a nut flush draw. If you are like 30bb or so deep, much different scenario obv. River is yet another spot where, we don't re-raise with a lot of value hands and bet most of them on the flop, other than AK. Villain's river bet obv does not make a lot of sense, however this isn't a spot where we can re-raise as wide as the AT hand, so folding is best imo.
Hand 14 - I like 4betting pre here IP, OOP I'd be more inclined to flat call.
Flop is a mandatory cbet, turn check is fine, and river is fine. Having
the nut flush blocker here is crucial, although werep so thin, villain will be flatting most hands that hit this board pre. We put him in a spot where we probably aren't overbluffing and he has to make a very difficult call with TT-QQ.
Hand 15 - Preflop and flop bet are fine, it's really weird when he x/r's. I think he has all 77/TT/98s and maybe some hands like QJ/J9/96ss. We have to call his flop raise. I probably sigh call his turn bet and the river I'm just puking on. I think his range here is much weighted towards value hands when the A rolls off since it's so much better for our range. I sigh fold river, if he had missed spades wp.
Hand 16 - I am cbetting this flop every time. The downside is we don't have too many good turn barrelling cards. Do anything but check/call this flop! Versus someone overly peely, x/r is best. Turn, although villain's bet looks extremely weak I think we have to x/call. A station just isn't going to fold 1 pair here often enough for us to bet/bet and we only get paid on ~20% of rivers.
Hand 17 - Preflop/flop standard. Turn w/ the Ad I am 3betting here every time. We face an extremely capped range from our opponent who likely won't call down 1 pair to a turn 3bet AND then a river shove. We have all A5/65/43/44/33/22/flushes here that he simply can't have! Very good spot to attack a capped range and it's better to take this bluff line in a 1k than an $11 MTT. In a 1k the larger buyin works both ways, plus people are a lot less likely to call down 1 pair here in a 1k than an $11.
Hand 18 - I like this flop x/r a lot, however I'd use a much larger sizing, doubt you would go this small with 2pr+. River is a mandatory bet, this T is a v good card for your range and not so much villain's due to the # of Tx he checks back on the flop. I would expect this to get checked through a lot when you check. Putting him in the cage on this river every time. He'll have a lot of missed draws himself that we don't beat and I don't think he'll ever call a river bet w/o a T, which as I stated above, he doesn't have much of besides JT, really.
Hand 1 - 3Bing pre is standard. When we get 4bet, I think this is just a fold.
I don't think a nitty reg is ever going to be cold 4betting light here and might even flat AK pre. Our SPR going to the flop is going to be just 2, so we don't really give ourselves much room to manuever. Flop I think folding is fine, but if we are calling pre, isn't this the flop we want to float on that doesn't have a Jack in it? The advantages are most any club/Q/J/T/7 are good for our range, the disadvantage is the times a blank turn rolls off or our opponent doesn't fold to a shove, even if a favorable turn I listed above hits.
Hand 2 - Standard raise pre, flop is an easy cbet. Turn gets tricky. This is a turn card that is pretty blank, it doesn't help our range a ton, but at the same time does not help our opponent's range either. We do pick up 8 more outs though, so I like betting and to your size. River I hate jamming. We rep pretty thin and this card is frankly, very good for our opponent's range and not so much for ours. I'm not positive you open JTo pre and you definitely do not with T8o, which reduces the # of straights we get to the river with. I think we have to sigh x/f.
Hand 3 - Flop is pretty interesting. Although over a small sample, the SB is playing a lot of hands. If this is a good reg I'm going to be suspicious when he leads here into 4 people, if this is a fish, I'm raising all day for value since a fish's range will be more weighted towards draws/top pairs here than sets. Turn sizing looks good, river is (puke). I think I'm sighing really hard and folding here. Yes, this is a lovely card for villain to bluff at, but his line signals a lot of much better hands, all of which hit this runout hard. On the other hand, only needing to be good here 22% of the time makes me inclined to F it call off the river bet.
Hand 4 - Against a player who is frequently check-raising flops, I like just calling this flop with KQ in order to keep worse hands in his range in. I think he will play pretty honestly should we decide to 3bet this flop. We'll have some floats here as well so calling flop is best imo. Turn call is standard. River is awkward. I think an opponent this aggro would be firing most of his bluffs on the river so our SDV isn't as much as we think. I would probably shove river with the J, K or A of spades, bet small with the T, 9, or 8 of spades, and check everything else. I don't think we should ever be bluffing the river.
Hand 5 - Pre is fine, flop I may check back, however if you are going to bet, we def need a plan for when we get x/r'd. Calling the x/r is certainly fine. Turn is tricky, I'd be worried about getting blown off our equity here, though most hands that are coming over the top we likely don't have much against. Our opponent's first reaction isn't going to be "he must have air here" when we reraise and like you said, we give ourselves a very good price on a bluff with a lot of good river cards we can bluff shove or value shove on. Very wp hand.
Hand 6 - These spots are always tricky. At first glance, our opponent is very aggro. This turn card obv blows for us and in game I just sigh fold. SPR is another big issue here, If we had 8x, we are pretty much always going to be x/shoving this turn against a bet because of how often it goes x/x on the river so by calling we kind of turn our hand face up. I think you played this hand fine.
Hand 7 - Preflop, flop, and turn are all fine. River is kind of odd. Our opponent does not bet a lot of hands for value here that are not super strong and someone that tight does not flat KT here + we block it. QJ/KQ/AQ are certainly all in his range here, the latter he may 3B pre and KQ he prob bets flop with, though. I think this is a spot where I'm just sigh x/fing. Against
a very good reg or a fish I'd never x/jam here, against an avg thinking reg, your play is a lot more justifiable. A high risk, high reward shove indeed!
Hand 8 - Flat preflop is meh vs a 20bb stack opening. Flop and turn are both fine, the problem with this river is that it is much better for our range than his and he likely won't be firing any bluffs. I think river is a x/f. I don't think you would have considered this in the moment, but maybe leadout shove the river? It's so good for our range and we don't let v check back his 1 pair hands.
Hand 9 - Snapfolding pre in a $700 MTT. Flop/turn are fine. River I'm checking. We just don't have a lot of value hands that triplebarrel this runout and it doesn't help your cause that it is 3 off ITM and people are going to be tightening up in general. If you're going to bluff this river, I think going like 12bbs is going to be more profitable than jamming. 33/44/A3s/A4s are all definitely in his range here imo.
Hand 10 - Ugh, really weird spot. I think you played it fine though. In villain's shoes, I don't think he expects us to fold top pair on the river, and he has plenty of 3x in his range. If he has 45/65/A4/A5, I think he's more likely to give it up on this river. People generally don't bluff in these spots, as people aren't folding top pair or better enough. KQ is a better bluff catcher than AK in this spot as AK blocks some of his Ax floats that decide to bluff here. In game I might just say **** it and call, but this is really a guessing spot. Wp by villain with whatever he had.
Hand 11 - This is a spew off with AQ. 3bet pre is fine, however when an 18/12/8 guy 4bets to the size he did, it just screams nuts. At t60 he isn't going to be bluffingtoo often here and flatting a lot of hands like TT and even some suited aces. Against an aggro monkey I think your shove is fine, vs this particular opponent I just fold AQ. My 5B shove range is probably QQ+ AK+ and I'd flat call some speculative hands like 87s, JJ/TT I'd probably flat if you 3bet with them here. I don't think a 5bet bluff range is neccesary here.
Hand 12 - Preflop and flop are fine. Turn call is good and I call all Tx OTT,
river I like this re-raise alot. Villain in this hand is completely capped and we will definitely be re-raising all AK/JJ/TT/QQ here on the river and possibly KK/AA. The only downside is you bet a lot of your value hands (outside of AK), on this flop given the stack depth. Certainly a great spot to overbluff since we can raise much wider for value. There is a chance you were bluffing with the best hand here
Hand 13 - This deep I'm always betting the flop with a nut flush draw. If you are like 30bb or so deep, much different scenario obv. River is yet another spot where, we don't re-raise with a lot of value hands and bet most of them on the flop, other than AK. Villain's river bet obv does not make a lot of sense, however this isn't a spot where we can re-raise as wide as the AT hand, so folding is best imo.
Hand 14 - I like 4betting pre here IP, OOP I'd be more inclined to flat call.
Flop is a mandatory cbet, turn check is fine, and river is fine. Having
the nut flush blocker here is crucial, although werep so thin, villain will be flatting most hands that hit this board pre. We put him in a spot where we probably aren't overbluffing and he has to make a very difficult call with TT-QQ.
Hand 15 - Preflop and flop bet are fine, it's really weird when he x/r's. I think he has all 77/TT/98s and maybe some hands like QJ/J9/96ss. We have to call his flop raise. I probably sigh call his turn bet and the river I'm just puking on. I think his range here is much weighted towards value hands when the A rolls off since it's so much better for our range. I sigh fold river, if he had missed spades wp.
Hand 16 - I am cbetting this flop every time. The downside is we don't have too many good turn barrelling cards. Do anything but check/call this flop! Versus someone overly peely, x/r is best. Turn, although villain's bet looks extremely weak I think we have to x/call. A station just isn't going to fold 1 pair here often enough for us to bet/bet and we only get paid on ~20% of rivers.
Hand 17 - Preflop/flop standard. Turn w/ the Ad I am 3betting here every time. We face an extremely capped range from our opponent who likely won't call down 1 pair to a turn 3bet AND then a river shove. We have all A5/65/43/44/33/22/flushes here that he simply can't have! Very good spot to attack a capped range and it's better to take this bluff line in a 1k than an $11 MTT. In a 1k the larger buyin works both ways, plus people are a lot less likely to call down 1 pair here in a 1k than an $11.
Hand 18 - I like this flop x/r a lot, however I'd use a much larger sizing, doubt you would go this small with 2pr+. River is a mandatory bet, this T is a v good card for your range and not so much villain's due to the # of Tx he checks back on the flop. I would expect this to get checked through a lot when you check. Putting him in the cage on this river every time. He'll have a lot of missed draws himself that we don't beat and I don't think he'll ever call a river bet w/o a T, which as I stated above, he doesn't have much of besides JT, really.
03-05-2017
, 01:05 AM
congrats trent. you came in last minute and scooped up tomorrow's freeroll. 10% of all of my profits in games under $500, or $300 to a charity of your choice if i fail to turn a profit
obviously this is just starting, and there may have been some early growing pains in the formatting, structure, etc. but i'm still happy with the idea and will have some more hands to post monday. so please subscribe and give it some time to pan out
today was my first day back in a while, i was 2/4 in b215 and ended up 4th, after holding a CL from 50 down. finished 11th in the scuffle losing AJ v AT on JT74 getting it AI on the turn, which stung a little bit being 2 outted with one to come after having just busted the b215. strung together some other cashes with a 2nd in the 66 on bcp, and a 3rd in the clubber on party. overall was pretty happy with my play today, and glad to walk away with enough profit to cover what i lost in lapc (had 3% of the 8th place finisher...almost made a lot
)
i'm completely exhausted, but i still plan to reply to the above commentary. everyone's participation is appreciated, and i look forward to everything we have ahead
obviously this is just starting, and there may have been some early growing pains in the formatting, structure, etc. but i'm still happy with the idea and will have some more hands to post monday. so please subscribe and give it some time to pan out
today was my first day back in a while, i was 2/4 in b215 and ended up 4th, after holding a CL from 50 down. finished 11th in the scuffle losing AJ v AT on JT74 getting it AI on the turn, which stung a little bit being 2 outted with one to come after having just busted the b215. strung together some other cashes with a 2nd in the 66 on bcp, and a 3rd in the clubber on party. overall was pretty happy with my play today, and glad to walk away with enough profit to cover what i lost in lapc (had 3% of the 8th place finisher...almost made a lot
)i'm completely exhausted, but i still plan to reply to the above commentary. everyone's participation is appreciated, and i look forward to everything we have ahead
03-05-2017
, 01:21 AM
Awesome! Make us rich tomorrow 
glgl.
Congrats on your day today, MTTs can be pretty brutal, even when you're winning, lol.
I think the idea is great. The incentives will add a lot of discussion to the thread and everyone benefits from it, hopefully the thread gets even more popular than your old threads. I look forward to the future discussions ITT with everyone.
glgl.Congrats on your day today, MTTs can be pretty brutal, even when you're winning, lol.
I think the idea is great. The incentives will add a lot of discussion to the thread and everyone benefits from it, hopefully the thread gets even more popular than your old threads. I look forward to the future discussions ITT with everyone.
03-05-2017
, 09:03 AM
03-06-2017
, 01:25 AM
03-06-2017
, 02:21 AM
Will PM you for how I can receive it.
03-06-2017
, 03:22 AM
03-12-2017
, 08:26 AM
03-12-2017
, 09:11 AM
03-13-2017
, 12:24 PM
