if villain is folding a better 9x it's terrible to raise wtf guys, we are just getting value from his OESDs and maybe KQ type hands, 3x shouldn't even be folding to this raise, 9x and Jx are not folding and nor should it be

the raise is totally fine but it's not a bluff, it's value/protection with good backdoor equity

wait, how is raising to get him off A9/K9/Q9 a bad result?

because then we are exclusively value towning ourself with middle pair which honestly is not really ever happening here, the raise is actually fine, the ev of calling versus raising this amount is probably quite close but we are definitely not raising to fold out better hands, we do it to deny equity, charge draws and get value from a select few worse holdings

I'm not advocating a raise on the flop. We block conceivable draws so when called we are most likely getting called by better. If we know we can fold out a better 9, fine. But he's got more Jx due to combinatorics. And I don't see 9x just donking flop very often.

This is another reason raising flop is not good.

Raising is fine but once again not for the reasons mike states which are basically "i have the best hand and want to take it down".

For the reasons xeno states, which are more important than I realized until recently. Flat is fine too esp. with the bdfd.

About $500

Def. flat flop then.

As Dizzy quotes, I'm not sure this is why Mike is raising? If I've read the reasoning right, it's almost to "rep" a value raise, which suggests to me that we're bluffing?

I'm guessing the guys in the raise camp are arguing for kinda a thin value raise of sorts? I think this is where I just fall back on "small hand, small pot", for better or worse. We have position, a weakish hand that might have some backdoor potential, and a guy that might be capable of putting more money in with air / weak holdings if given half a chance plus is never folding better, so I just don't see much reason in blowing up the pot on an early street.

GimoG

Where did I say "I have the best hand and I want to take it down". I dont think I ever have the best hand here. I came up with his play thru trial and error.

When someone leads out into the raiser HU or 3 ways but they lead out like 1/3 pot, they will fold to a raise almost every time because they have a weak hand.

What do we do here if we have KK and he leads $15 into this $70 pot on this J93 rainbow flop? We are probably going to raise for value because he bet so small. If he led out $55 we can call so we dont blow him off his hand. But when he leads out less than we wouldve bet ourselves we need to raise for value. Ive raised these donk bets in the past with an overpair only to have them show me TP and muck.

It happened a few times so I said "you know what?". Im going to start bluff raising in these spots and Im telling you they fold about 85% of the time and maybe 1/3 of the time they show me TP when they fold.

Ive tried this move on the turn a few times and it doesnt work, but on the flop its gold.

Now this guy was drunk so its not really the same thing. Im just pointing out that I wasnt raising because I thought I had the best hand and was trying to take it down like Avaritia said.

Read my explanation of why I started using this line and youll see that Im 100% sure that we can fold out the best hand an extremely large amount of the time. Almost nobody leads into the raiser with a set, especially not HU. They normally lead out with a small bet with something like QJ and then they see a raise and think "Oh ****, he raised preflop and hes raising my flop bet. He has an overpair or AJ". At least that's what I think they think cuz they keep folding.

You don't need to "take it down" with this hand though... Sure raise the guy on the flop here heeps but imo this isn't the hand to do it with.

Why not? If I think HE has the best hand and that based on my experience he will fold 85% of the time, why not raise? That seems pretty clearly +EV to me.

I think people just dont believe that this play works this often.

I think what you perceive as people folding out better hands is mostly them ****ing around and folding trash to your raise, except a select few super duper nits, I mean **** dude it's a 1/5 lead, it's almost the same as a check, and your raise is not even close to the the initial pot, much less the current pot

I've played my fair share of hands versus whales and although sometimes they show ridiculous folds, they are making way more ridiculous calls than folds

and I mean clearly here if he didn't fold K9 he was not folding a better hand 85% of the time

If you had air here (so like every other hand is better than yours, like even bottom pair) *and* you weren't up against a drunk (i.e. ~0 FE), then I wouldn't have an issue with the play in general.

Gjustnotinthisspot,imoG

This guy clearly isnt folding 85%. Hes drunk after all. It was probably a bad move against him. Im talking about in general though.

I played some 2/5 during the day time today and then went back after dinner for a Friday night 1/2 donk session.

Here is probably the weirdest 2/5 hand Ive played/seen in a while

1) 5 limps. I limp KQ OTB. I would almost always raise KQ OTB but after 5 limpers? I was pretty sure I would get called 3-4 times unless I made it like $60. SB completes and then the BB makes it $15. Really? WTF could he possibly have?

Every single limper calls of course. This is where it gets weird. I decided to reraise it to $115. The SB instashoves $500 and it folds back to me.

Now if the SB is decent at all and he believes me to be decent at all (and we had only been playing about 30 mins) then he knows I dont have a bg hand after overlimping the button. My play wouldve been much better from UTG but I thought it would work since I was putting him on something like JTs. He knows I dont have a big hand but I also know he doesnt. Im almost positive he doesnt have me dominated so its an easy call.

He had 99 and and in standard MikeStarr fashion, he wins the coin flip which is why my negative All in EV amount always seems to grow and grow. I couldve easily just called the $15 but whatever. If we run this twice and we both win 1, which is what would happen long term then I have an extra $545. I ended the 2/5 session down $320 but the $535 in lost EV from the one hand puts me at an adjusted session of +$225. That's a good 4 hours. That's how I look at things.

My 1/2 session saw me being seriously card dead for most of the night. I started out down $120 before finally making some noise.

#1) I limped 75s UTG. UTG+2 raised to $5 and got 5 calls. I was getting tired of him constantly raising $5 so I repopped it to $35 and they all folded. I'm sure they thought I had AA/KK.

#2) UTG+2 opens to $10 and gets a call. UTG+2 used to be a dealer in my room. Everyone knows hm but somehow I dont remember him at all. He dealt late at night and I dont play in the evening very often so I guess thats why. We are $300 deep. Ive been very card dead. I 3 bet to $35 with J8s and take it down.

#3) MP 85 year old female (who is amazingly good) opens to $8 and gets 2 calls. I reraise to $25 JJ OTB. This is my 3rd 3 bet to $35 in the last 20 mins. The dealer, who has changed seats and is now 2 to my right is the only caller. We are $325 effective

Flop ($90) Jh7h4c. Villain leads $21. WTF? This guy is a decent player but I dont know what that means. Flush draw maybe? 9h8h? I raised to $110. He takes about 30 secs and shoves all in. Wow!. I call obviously. I felt bad for him when he tabled his 77.

#4) Same lady opens to $8 and gets 2 calls. I 3 bet to $25 this time with JJ BB. A new guy in the same sat that the dealer was sitting in calls HU

Flop ($70) AK3 rainbow. Check/check
Turn ($70) 4. Check/check
River ($70) 6. Check...he bets $35. I think a bit and call and beat his 32s.

My win rate in "peak" hour 1/2 game (defined as after 6PM or anytime on weekends) is now $53/hr. Sample size is still small but its growing. I am convinced I can sustain $40+/hr in these games.

Before anyone says "Yeah but your games are super soft". I do have a limited sample of 1/2 peak hours at other places including

Casino Montreal (Montreal)
Foxwoods (Connecticut)
Coconut Creek (S. Florida)
Choctaw (Oklahoma)
Ceasars (Vegas)
The Poker Room (New Hampshire)

Short sample but my win rate at these places combined is $59/hr.

>#1) I limped 75s UTG. UTG+2 raised to $5 and got 5 calls. I was getting tired of him constantly raising $5 so I repopped it to $35 and they all folded. I'm sure they thought I had AA/KK.

Why are you limping 75s if +2 is always raising?

He wasn't raising every hand but he was raising a couple times per orbit to $5. He showed down 88, A9s and KJ so far.

So what do I do about it? I can sit there and do nothing and let him play his game, but that takes me out of my game. Or I can do something about it. Hes 2 seats to my left so he has position on me. No seat on the other side of him opened up and besides, I really like the 1 and 10 seats so I didnt want to move. I was in the 10. He was in the 2.

I want to be able to limp hands like this in EP against a table of weak passives. This guy is the only one stopping me from doing that.

In this particular hand after the preflop action, I seriously doubt he has a real hand. I doubt anyone else does either after only calling $5. So I repopped it to $35. Even if I decide ahead of time to never ever put another dime into the pot if someone calls I make $30 when they all fold and lose $35 when someone calls. Its not hard to do the math to see how often they all have to fold to make just the preflop play in itself profitable.

My estimate is that my 3 bet takes it down 80% of the time. It just really looks like I have AA/KK. Nobody limp reraises with much else than that in these games.

Also, these are the kinds of plays that make me look like a maniac and get me paid off over and over when I have a hand. I talked about that a few days ago.

tracking aiev is sort of weird/pointless... unless you're a pro and are paying yourself out of your br. Even then I assume most people miscalculate it. You shouldn't be calculating the aiev of the direct hands.. instead your ev calc should be range vs range (ie your ev is actually way lower than what you think it is)

AIEV of range vs range? You know how stupid that sounds right?

actually its not. if you're a grown adult with real bills it's probably the best (and most conservative) way to pay yourself out of your br.

some stupid young "pro" would break their bankroll by overspending and overestimating their ev. For example, they might pay themselves 80% from an AA vs AK spot, when in reality its only a 65/35 (or less) spot.

still waiting on that 1 million play money hand sample you boasted about pal

For someone who studies as much philosophy as you, I'm surprised your ego is what it is.

Upswinging is just taking further extrapolation of the idea of gbucks, a concept created by a pretty good poker player.

Mike is talking about measuring AI EV to see whether he's running good or bad. Measuring AIEV of hand vs range or range vs range says absolutely nothing about variance. This has nothing to do with paying yourself from your bankroll either lolwot

Incorrect.