I will give the short answer first. Yes it is just variance. Your short term results are indistinguishable from luck.

Also, in 21 you cannot make any mistakes. I think you can afford to make one basic strategy mistake like once every 20 shoes or something.

Here is how you can calculate the range of variance. For this example I will use the following assumptions. 1. Your expectation or edge is 1%. 2. Your avg bet is $100. 3. You are playing a Vegas style 6 deck game with good rules. Given this, the following is how you calculate your range over a set number of hands. In this example we will calculate the range over 10k hands.

Your expectation after 10k hands is $10k or $1/hand. The range is caluculated by taking the sq rt of the number of hands, in this case 10k. So it's 100 * the std dev for the game type which is about 1.15 * the avg bet of $100.

So we get $11,500. So 1 std dev given the above criteria is $11,500.

What this means is that after 10k hands of play you should expect to be up
$10k + or - $11,500. So you could be down $1,500 or up $21,500 and anything in between would be considered within the normal range of variance.

Now the further you go outside of this range, the less likely it is that it is variance, though it is possible. I would say you start hitting the "long run" at around 40k-50k hands. If you are down money after that many hands, you are likely either playing in a bad game, or you are making too many mistakes.

It takes awhile to get that many hands if you are wonging though. To give you an idea, you get about 27 hands/ 6 deck shoe. And you get about 3 shoes/hr.
Out of 100 hands you play about 20 with an advantage. So if you are wonging you are only playing about 16 hands an hour. So it would take you about 3 months of full time play to reach that number.

So people always ask me why I never pursued blackjack exclusively. Well it's because it's very time consuming, you always have to worry about getting barred, and you have to play pretty high in order for it to be worth it. But the higher you play the higher the scrutiny so you can't really play for very long. But it's a really good thing to add to your overall gambling strategy.

Thanks for the detailed reply. From what I was reading I was pretty sure that my results were within the range of typical variance but nice to have some numbers to think about.

Of the places you played in Vegas, where did you find the best games? I'm especially interested in shoe games w good rules/pen and low minimums as I'm planning to play w a spotter/partner. Also interested in two deck games that I can play by myself w/ large spreads and low heat.

Ok. Generally the best 6 deck shoe games and double deck games are spread by the MGM properties. So Aria, Bellagio, Mirage. I think Mirage has $25 games. The rest are $50 or $100 minimums. The MGM double deck games are nice because they deal all the cards face up so it just makes it a little more convenient to count. Plus the penetration is pretty good. But I wouldn't go crazy with the spread on the double deck games. Those games are heavily scrutinized because they know it is attractive to counters.

You can probably just spread like 1-6 with a little cover and be able to beat it. Though I know ideally you'd want a 1-8 spread.

The Golden Nugget game which was a $10 min was pretty good. You can surrender. The only negative rule is H17, which is not even that bad for counters. So I would recommend that game. Caesar's Palace has the same game, but it' s $25.

Like I said before, El Cortez spreads a true single deck game, but you are not allowed to do anything, but flat bet. You might be able to get away with sitting out a few hands, but that's it. I wouldn't recommend it, because if you are betting big money at all they will probably kick you out. They watch that game like a hawk. Honestly I don't even know why they spread it.

Nice info. Thx. Did you ever make it to some of the local properties? My understanding is that the station and fiesta casinos have pretty good games, both 2 and 6 deck.

Also, when you play do you usually do it rated?

Btw, PM me next time you're in Vegas and I'd be happy to buy you a beer (or three)

Not on this trip. There are probably some decent games. The biggest rule I look for in a shoe game is surrender. I think it swings the edge a lot especially for a counter. The pitched double decks are usually hit and miss. I just stick to shoe so I don't mix up my basic strategy because there are some minor differences and also the index plays differ accordingly as well. Thanks for the offer. I plan on going there again around first two weeks of November.

One trend I saw this summer that I forgot to comment on.

Every Euro and their mother 3 betting hands like KJ, AJ, AT, KQ plus all the premiums from the sb.

They seem to do this almost giving no regard to what pos the original raiser is raising from. Especially if there is a caller in between.

Would like to hear comments from Gutter and any other super geniuses. What do you think of this? Is it standard online? Good, bad how do you play against it?

Also saw a lot of people 3 betting that same range plus hands like QJs, JTs, 76s.. Which I thought was bad generally. Maybe it's not if you're almost never getting 4 bet?

I don't see much benefit of 3 betting hands that play great post-flop like 76s JTs etc when you are OOP

I am a SSNL live player fwiw

Oh sorry forgot to point out that last part when I said they were 3 betting the 76s hands, those were from the button.

Enjoying being back at home and not grinding. My next mini grind session will be in late August. Probably at Hollywood Park. Maybe Hawaiian Gardens. It will only be a day or two as I will be back in LA for a few days.

After that I will probably just play once a week at Thunder Valley until November rolls around. I guess I could try blackjack at TV as well. I'm going back and rereading all my 21 books again. I'm thinking of hitting the double deck games pretty hard when I go back in Nov. I might have to brush up on my hi opt II with ace side count again. ThAt really used to give me a headache though.

Which books are you going to be reading out of curiosity?

If you're gonna be in LA in august and plan to play i would recommend playing at the Bike. Legends of poker will be there all month and the action is great at the cash tables IMO

Blackjack Attack, Mason Malmuth's Blackjack Essays, Blackbelt in blackjack, and a bunch of other ones. But I think Blackjack Ayyack is probably the single most comprehensive stand alone text if I were to pick one.

Interesting, I will probably check it out then. During regular times the bike would be my absolute last pick to play. The 5/10 was a horrible game. The 5/5 was almost just as depressing. Literally 0 action.

Oh a small side story. My roommate figured out some weird loophole to beat the bubble craps machines at Aria and Caesar's Palace. He made $50k in a 48hr period. So sick to see his $20k+ slot tickets. The only reason he stopped playing is because they shut down the machines he was playing on. I wonder if they've caught on to whatever glitch he found.

I would've def got in on it if I hadn't been leaving. He tried to explain it to me, but I'm not much of a craps person and it sounded kind of complicated. But the gist of it was he found some way to freeroll on his Don't bets. I'm sure a bunch of people will get fired once they figure out what happened.

Turntup, where do you usually play? Maybe we can meet up at the Bike when I'm there.

This month I will be at the Bike probably 2-3 times a month. Most likely Thursday and Saturday nights.

PM me if you wanna meet up sometime,I only play 2-3 maybe 5-5 tho. Not as much of a baller as you haha

love the theard

THREAD!!!

Thx Vino!

Was doing some thinking and remembered a hand I had that makes me laugh.

This was on the tail end of a 24hr 5/10 session at Aria. I believe I had about 4800. Villain had me barely covered. He was an Irish guy on his last few days in Vegas. I had played with him a few times and we were seated next to each other. He played a tight straightforward solid game. We never really got into it at all and I think kind of just stayed out of each other's way. He had seen me bluff a couple times, but I think he still viewed me as playing solid values. Especially this session since there were three big fish in the game.

Anyways on To the hand.

Pf: villain raises UTG to 40, I make it 110, folds to him, he makes it 300, I call.

Flop(615): J T 5
He bets 400 I make it 1400 he calls.
Turn(3415): 3
He checks, I shove, he tanks for a min, flashes two red Aces and mucks.

Guess my hand and win a prize.

A2ss?

46ss. Or 10 3o

55

Good guesses, but this one will be pretty difficult to pinpoint.

Would be pretty sick if you had the other 2 Aces