Rapid, I went back to August and saw that you were breakeven in ev at $200 after 82k hands. This was only a few days prior to you busting 7 more buy-ins to move down. What in the world makes you think that you're winning at $200nl?
I didn't say I'm +EV at 200z, but that I have a better shot at 200z than 100z
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xenoblade
I don't understand anything of what you're saying about 100z, I was coaching a friend of mine with just a solid somewhat balanced strategy and he beat it for 7bb over 100k hands, there wasn't any weird **** going on, just people playing badly left and right.
Yes maybe my student ran good but the point is that there is no weird dynamics going on at 100z that makes it unbeatable or whatever story you're trying to tell yourself.
Here are some hands I found out, gonna show the sn because whatever, have fun
H3: he is MASSIVELY overbluffing this turn, luckly in this one I managed to exploit him, it's one of the only spots where I had a good idea on what people were doing. But I still have no balls to call him down with any pair or AQ
H4: vs reg, guy is 100% on the air jordan in there, if I were tilted like a monkey and calling any pair I would have a higher winrate vs this guy in that spot
H7: manny12 special, guy is so explo mode that he was so sure I was overfolding that he wouldn't even valuebet that, so he was probably overbluffing to oblivion, obv I couldn't exploit that well
Rapidesh123 shows Q A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 26%, Flop 19%, Turn 7%) Mannyy12 shows A K (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 74%, Flop 81%, Turn 93%) Mannyy12 wins 36.46 BB
H8: he was very likely FOS in there, obv I didn't have a calling hand, and I believe at that time I didn't know him, it was in one of my first shots at 100z, so I was 100% folding AK in there
H12: we were unknowns at that time, luckly I caught him bluffing in a river raise before when I had a set, but if I hadn't done that, guess what I would be doing OTR
I get tilted so hard in there and the only way to beat the rake in there is to be very good at exploiting and counter-exploiting.
Funny you say that, because i had 4bb at 100z (over huuuuuge sample) while totally autopiloting and not exploiting at all (I was so terrible I was making snap decisions in every spot, I literally never adjusted). You have to realize the pool is easy to beat, because of the amount of fish that play it. All you need to do is stop spewing around.
People say just play a 'standard solid strat' or 'ABC poker' like they are somehow quantifiable terms, or like there's some super simple game tree map that you can just follow and win at 100z. There isn't.
So u're also good w OP skipping 100z and jumping to 200z
Spoiler:
I've meant not folding 100% of your range based on very little information and missleading yourself that it's an exploit. When couple of people that have sound reasoning of the game try to tell you something you should think about what they said and try to get why.
Didn't say it was simple. Didn't say there was a chart. It's very hard to build up ''solid strategy'' and it's even more harder to apply it correctly.
No lol, that’s not what I said. Wasn’t even particularly directing the comment at anyone. ‘Just play ABC winning poker’ is just a thing I see so often in these forums, like it’s super easy to implement.
Btw, ran some sims about that JQcc hand, yeah, broken was right about folding JQ OTF, it was folding even vs a very loose 3-bet range(17%), OTR it was an easy call, it was winning 15bbs, which is insane, I never thought that a bad fold could cost so much, specially when it's expected that villain will bluff more than pio.
Btw, xenoblade, used some tighter ranges(11% 3-bet) and 12% call pre and in that spot OOP was close to range checking.
After that I ran another sim with those same tight ranges, let flop happen normally and locked turn into a more straightforward strategy that a human is capable of doing: semibluffing a lot, with all valuebets, but not valuebetting TT/99 for thin value, with KQ being bluffed a lot(pio was barreling turn 80% of the time and with that node lock it was barreling 58%), also AK/AQ checking back with some give ups/pairs.
IP's strat that I locked OTT
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OOP's OTR after the turn x back
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IP OTR facing a check
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OOP's response facing IP's bet
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JQss was making 17bbs, 44/55 were slightly losing and 66/77 losing 4bbs, AQ with the As was called a lot, because of good removal(IP's bluffs OTT had spades, so OTR the As blocks only value and no bluffs!).
After that I went and locked IP's betting range to basically all bluffs and Kx for value(I don't think that a nit will vlauebet Jx in there), and no surprises, OOP was calling all bluffcatchers.
Then I made a less greedy strat for IP that was bluffing with every bluff candidate but AQ, which clearly has some SDV
This was the locked IP's betting range
Spoiler:
OOP's response vs that
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44 was making 4bbs on a call, all AQ were good even when villain was still bluffing with AQ! lol!
But an interesting thing is that with the ranges I chose, even though OOP started calling more, the EV of JQ reduced by a lot, it was 17bbs and now it's 4bbs, AQ is making more money calling there than JQ. Maybe it has to do with the blocker distribution in there, but all 8x got an increase from 0 ev call to 8 ev call. Not saying that my fold was good, it was even worse: I should be calling all 8x in there easily, and since I considered this to be a bad call, then I'm pretty sure I'm folding all 8x in there.
Also if villain bluffs with AQ it's insane.
Btw, did you guys see that some hands from OOP are missing? Something unexpected happened:
After I locked IP to valuebet less thinly OTR and bluff more, OOP went from 96% range check to this:
Spoiler:
I think it happened because the goal of OOP's checks with those strong hands was to protect its range vs thin valuebets, like Jx/99/TT, if OOP isn't checking Kx/2p+, then IP can valuebet him relentlessly(with lots of bluffs too), making it really hard for OOP to defend himself well in there. Now since IP is polarizing OTR to Kx or nothing, then there's no need for OOP to have Kx in his range, since villain will either have Kx or air, giving OOP the option to valuebet and make more money(and with the extra of taking out some air off the checking range that would just x/f vs a bet).
Now that I saw the difference, I thought I locked new bluffs but the more obvious bluffs were already being bluffed, the only difference in the last sim was that IP isn't valuebetting as thin, but with the same bluffs. It's actually bluffing less combos, since it was bluffing some AQ
Thought a bit more about that sim and here are some new conclusions:
-As blocker becomes too strong for OOP if IP is always semibluffing As FD ott (and all spades tbh)
-66/77(and maybe 87) should be folds even in the worst case scenario, because 67s/A7/A6 are all bluff candidates for IP even in PIO and my node locking ranges.
-I will have to come up to a system that can let me apply that blocker thing in real time, because every board will be different: in bxb lines the most common bluffs for IP will have cards that are not semibluffing turns (have 0 gutshots), making our blockers better if they block the gutshots and worse if they block unconnected cards, now if we're facing the double barrel OTT the logic is reversed.
-Some 5 random boards to train this exercise, which are the worst blockers to have when bluffcatching the bxb line in that spot? A566, 892J, QT72, 5567, J45Q
Last edited by Rapidesh123; 12-07-2018 at 11:15 AM.
A566: blocking 7,8,9 is good for calls, blocking Q,J,K,T is bad
892J: blocking T, Q,7 6 is good for calls, blocking 3,4,5 K is bad
QT72: blocking K, J, 9 8 is good for calls, blocking 3,4,5,6 is bad
5567: blocking 8, 9, 4, 3 is good for calls, blocking J,K,Q,A,2 is bad
J45Q: blocking T,K, 9, 6,7,8 is good for calls, blocking A,2,3 is bad
Are you trying to say it is bad for you that people are deviating from balanced strat and playing relatively bad by posting those 100z hands?
Ofc you can't know their tendencies until you reach showdowns with them. Just play your balanced strat and take a note when something noteworthy happens in showdown.
Take a look at the hands you posted. These people are calling too much so just bluff a lot less and I think you'll do well. Honestly, if you just stopped bluffing the river completely I think you'd improve incredibly. Stuff in hand 2 and hand 5 didn't need to happen.
Notice all the times you actually have a hand they have garbage. Notice the other times where you don't have a hand they have slightly better garbage. Take hand 10 as an example. Yikes. Also, look at hand 11. He called you with ace high. Bluff less and you'll go far.
Are you trying to say it is bad for you that people are deviating from balanced strat and playing relatively bad by posting those 100z hands?
Ofc you can't know their tendencies until you reach showdowns with them. Just play your balanced strat and take a note when something noteworthy happens in showdown.
If I'm not abusing their leaks I'm better off at playing in a lower raked game. If villain folds 30% OTR a balanced strategy will make the same EV vs that than if I'm playing vs a balanced calling strat from villain (slightly more because of bad blocker effects, but not a great deal).
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGodson
Take a look at the hands you posted. These people are calling too much so just bluff a lot less and I think you'll do well. Honestly, if you just stopped bluffing the river completely I think you'd improve incredibly. Stuff in hand 2 and hand 5 didn't need to happen.
Notice all the times you actually have a hand they have garbage. Notice the other times where you don't have a hand they have slightly better garbage. Take hand 10 as an example. Yikes. Also, look at hand 11. He called you with ace high. Bluff less and you'll go far.
I think about using that strat as my last option, if I end up really desperate. I don't like playing like that because it will destroy my game and if I play way tighter with lots of underbluffs, if I get used to playing like that I will have 0% chance of beating 200z and it will just make me go away further from my dream of becoming a 500z reg, because **** like that won't work in there.
So you want to mindlessly click buttons and never adjust but beat 500nlz. Adjusting to increase your win rate massively out of the question because you can't think here I should bluff x y and z but because of villain's tendencies I will not bluff them?
So you want to mindlessly click buttons and never adjust but beat 500nlz. Adjusting to increase your win rate massively out of the question because you can't think here I should bluff x y and z but because of villain's tendencies I will not bluff them?
Sounds reasonable.
How can I ajust if I can't know how villains will play? 100z is the stake with the most different strats among the player pool. Some guys fold FHs otr, some call with A high, some never bluff raise the river, some massively overbluff.
And sometimes it's the same person doing those things, somehow the guy thinks villain is overbluffing then go on a massive spewy play or play straightforward if they think they're not out of line. And the pool is very big, which makes it a nightmare to adjust.
And the pool is very big, which makes it a nightmare to adjust.
Rapid, how do you think people like Broken, me, and others on Ignition adjust there where you don't get screen names? There's your answer on how to adjust.
How can I ajust if I can't know how villains will play? 100z is the stake with the most different strats among the player pool. Some guys fold FHs otr, some call with A high, some never bluff raise the river, some massively overbluff.
And sometimes it's the same person doing those things, somehow the guy thinks villain is overbluffing then go on a massive spewy play or play straightforward if they think they're not out of line. And the pool is very big, which makes it a nightmare to adjust.
You make assumptions. You make mistakes, spot these mistakes and you refine and adjust. You repeat this continually. Note taking etc. It's all pretty basic stuff you're just applying it to more complex situations.
Example, you think to yourself in spot A the player pool is overfolding so you bluff that spot more often. After trying this for a while you can analyse whether you are correct, are people folding the hands that you think they should be calling with? What type of hands are they calling with etc. Are any villains acting in a way that makes this a particularly bad adjustment against them? What traits do those villains have? etc
You will make bad assumptions, you'll make bad adjustments. It's poker mistakes happen.
Rapid, how do you think people like Broken, me, and others on Ignition adjust there where you don't get screen names? There's your answer on how to adjust.
You guys play the best way you can to exploit population tendencies.
So your reasoning is that you cant beat the bad donkey players couse they can call or raise anything and u have no way of knowing?
So you'll do better vs much better players in 200z "couse you know how to play the pros", were all the way back to the classics now "I need to move up to where they respect my raises" haha
Also you talk about the pool being to big wtf are u talking about, after a week u have a **** ton of hands, stats n notes on most ppl. I wonder how ppl win in 10nl pool then....
So your reasoning is that you cant beat the bad donkey players couse they can call or raise anything and u have no way of knowing?
So you'll do better vs much better players in 200z "couse you know how to play the pros", were all the way back to the classics now "I need to move up to where they respect my raises" haha
Also you talk about the pool being to big wtf are u talking about, after a week u have a **** ton of hands, stats n notes on most ppl. I wonder how ppl win in 10nl pool then....
You totally misunderstood it. 200z people are better players and tougher to beat, but the reduction in 2 bb in rake should be good for me if I'm not abusing 100z people's leaks as much as I should. A mistake is only worth money if I'm exploiting it, if someone is overbluffing and I'm not overcalling I would be better off paying less rake playing vs people bluffing with optimal frequencies.
What's happening was even worse than that: some people were overbluffing and I was overfolding. It's so hard for me to make many calldowns when I've played vs the biggest nits in the universe a lot.
You totally misunderstood it. 200z people are better players and tougher to beat, but the reduction in 2 bb in rake should be good for me if I'm not abusing 100z people's leaks as much as I should. A mistake is only worth money if I'm exploiting it, if someone is overbluffing and I'm not overcalling I would be better off paying less rake playing vs people bluffing with optimal frequencies.
What's happening was even worse than that: some people were overbluffing and I was overfolding. It's so hard for me to make many calldowns when I've played vs the biggest nits in the universe a lot.
Well what you are saying here is somewhat true i guess, but poker is 100% about explo every player as much as you can and same thing goes for every stake. You play the best you can vs every single opponent with a base strat for when u have 0 info so i cant grasp why 100nl would be different in any way.
And the rake thing doesnt make sense as your playing the highest rake game now at 50z if im not misstaken. And your playing zoom, u have stats on everyone really quick.
Anyways didnt mean to sound harsh and u heard this from everyone allready, i just really dont get that u dont wanna exploit bad players :P
With all your posts it easy to see the issue. The reason you’re not beating 100z is because it’s everyone else’s fault, not yours.
The tone of your posts is that you’re better than everyone and it’s their mistakes that causes you to lose. Drop the ego and you might win.
With all your posts it easy to see the issue. The reason you’re not beating 100z is because it’s everyone else’s fault, not yours.
The tone of your posts is that you’re better than everyone and it’s their mistakes that causes you to lose. Drop the ego and you might win.