Well I don't like my hand too much anymore once hand flats my flop 3b, and want to realise my equity and possibly bluff river. OTR obv we cannot win if we check

the QT hand I want to get him off K high and splits. Prefer betting turn though.

see above.

I think they must be winning, certainly after r/b. Will try and post some more hands later today

Ok, so here as promised a few more hands:

vs reg:



vs aggro fish:



vs reg:



overbetting for thin value vs reg:



vs reg:



vs reg:

A few questions if you don't mind:

*First hand with 64s - it seems to me that this sort of hand is going to get you into bad situations more than good ones, and especially when we are deep reverse implied odds would be a concern for me. (But then when we are shallow I don't think our non-reverse implied odds are good enough!) our two pairs aren't going to be very strong, our flushes will be tough to disguise and get value from without getting owned by higher flushes, so its only the occasional super sneaky straight that we will really be getting much value from.

Where am I going wrong in thinking about this hand, particularly preflop and the flop call?


* What is going on in that QK on a monotone board hand? Did you have a specific betsizing read that somehow villain is valuebetting something likely to be stronger than our underepped top pair but not strong enough to call a check/shove with? Is his betsizing different for flushes and not flushes here?

* You posted a hand on the last page where you opened CO with AA and flatted a regs 3bet, the reg had the button. You then check/called every street. Was this a specific, gameflop/read based play or is this part of a balanced strategy to protect your range when you flat a 3bet OOP?

Yeah, 64s normally a fold but firstly this is an ante table so you get better odds for calling, secondly I like calling sometimes with hands that I should not normally have, thirdly we are deep and maybe most importantly there was a huge whale in the blinds. Also we should not be results oriented as it is not like CO will always have a flush when he bets river, he can even vbet worse.

KQ we can indeed not call river profitably imo. But after I CRAI this is a pretty sick call to make for him with anything but a (good) flush and because we block a lot of the possible flushes I do believe that we get the required folds to make this EV+.

AA hand is a mixture of what you said.

did you consider folding 46s river ?

and what worst hands is he value betting with ?

I am pretty sure he vbets sets, so no, did not consider folding. Though sizing looked a bit scary. Was actually really surprised that he bet the nuts rather than CRAI it, so he clearly expected me to call way wider than baby flush (meaning that he should also vbet more than flushes OTR) as he can expect me to vbet all flushes myself. Might also be giving him too much credit, not sure he thinks on that level . Either way still sure he vbets more than just flushes.

In the AK-hand, I don't get why you consider your shove to be for thin value...

Agreed, thin value is the wrong word.

The J9 v 22 is really sick vs that player. Perfect example of what the EV line in HM/PTR can't describe.

I have had so many of those in the last days it is surreal. This is literally the first hand I played today:



But enough on bad beats. A word though on AI EV. I believe that people put way too much emphasis on AI EV and see it as the true winrate. This is just not correct imo, let's look at an example. Two players play 2 hands, BvB they go AI preflop, player 1 has AA on both occasions, player 2 has KK on both occasions. In the first hand player 1 wins, in the second hand player 2 spikes a K and wins. Ignoring rake, they are both exactly breakeven in terms of profit, which a true reflection of the long term EV in this spot (ie. as in none made a mistake and they both would have played it the same if the cards were reversed, etc...), whereas player 1 is way up in AI EV, player 2 way down in down in AI EV which is obviously not a reflection that player 1 is the better player.

Nice analysis. Would love to see you post more strat like this

<3 how shorties adjust their 3betting ranges as well as 3betting sizing when effective stacks change

Playing the EPT London for the rest of the week (or not if I bust out early ) so I thought I update my thread with my results for the month before:

A bit too tired to go searching for interesting loads of interesting hands but here is hand (vs reg) from today that was the biggest I won in terms of BB.

what do you think of MP's play that deep?

also at what stack size do you think your 3bet actually becomes a flat?

3betting is awful imo, would love to hear your thoughts why you chose 3betting over flatting.
Villain's play is somewhat interesting, I think depends a lot on Hero's image n what 3betting range will he choose but from a brief look I think it's more often a b/c, than a b/3b.

wouldnt be surprised if you have tilt issues tobe.

Think both flatting and 3b in these positions is fine with any stack depth >= 100bb. Villain's play is optimistic imo but maybe he had a read on me.

the deeper you get the more this is a 3bet.

Apparently Tobe disagrees

Nice Hand... This is the type of thing I seriously struggle with when deep, answer might be obv, but is there an effective stack size window >100 but less than X where have to fold to a 4bet when we 3bet.... ?

Sorry if dumb question

You dont draw to the nuts, you get dominated in both draws and pairs, you dont really want to get 4beted all that much, hand plays well in mway pot. What am i missing?

he gets to play hu pot with the c1aw

Depends on the 4b sizing but you can usually always flat.

That you want to 3b IP a lot with playable hands when deep.

And this

It isn't Omaha after all and you don't really flat J10s pre to flop top pair either. Ideally, you obviously wanna make a straight/a flush/trips and your hand will be decently disguised as well. On top of that, villain might rep what you actually have.
Also, I think villains 3b-jam OTF is godawful, but what do I know.