Hello 2+2'ers!

My name is Danny A. and this is the account of my Goal to transition into a Professional Poker Player starting January 1st of 2015.

The Who and Why

Some background on myself:
I'm 27 Years Old, I live in MA (suburb of Boston), am married and have a baby girl on the way, due in August

I'm currently a Paramedic, and while I enjoy my job, I've had the dream of being a Pro Poker Player since I was 17 years old.

For the first time in my life, I'm in a legitimately stable place where I've been able to seriously study and apply myself completely to the art of poker.

My schedule as a Paramedic is (2)24 Hour shifts, on Wednesday into Thursday, and Saturday into Sunday. Because of this, I have Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday available to commit to Poker.

I started off simply wanting to earn side income playing online to supplement my income, which in many ways is probably the most rational way to pursue my dream.

But I can't work for someone else anymore. Poker is the vehicle to my independence. To being a capitalist instead of capitalized upon. I work for a private EMS company, and while I get a great sense of satisfaction from my job at times, the sheer thought of the amount of $ my superiors make from my own labor is a HUGE driving force behind this dream.

I want to be able to work from home. I'm not looking for a Million Dollar Lifestyle (although I certainly will strive for it), I'm looking to make more $ doing something I love to do.

I currently make ~47k pre-tax, without overtime. My wife works, and we own a house, and live a nice middle class lifestyle. She supports my dream, only because she has seen my results, and knows that I am taking all of the necessary precautions before plunging fully into this.

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Primary Goal for 2014 (The What and When)
1) Earn a Minimum of $50k from now until Dec. 17th 2014
- This will prove that not only am I a consistent enough winner to go Pro, but I will have earned enough $ to pay off all of my bills for 2015 easily (and I'm not factoring in my Paramedic Income or wife's income.

- December 17th will be the day I give my 2 weeks notice to my employer
- I will remain a per diem Paramedic, which means I must work 24 hours minimum per month to maintain my employment with my company
- This will always serve as my fallback plan in the event of failure, burn out, or whatever may happen.

- This is an average of ~$1.5k per week for the rest of the year.
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The How

-I will be playing 30-40+ Hours Per Week on Bovada, ACR, Carbon and BetOnline
-While I do play live NL, my plan to incorporate it into my Poker career is ongoing, and I will be revisiting it down the road.

- My Current Game of Choice is $50 6-Max Turbo DONs on Bovada. I know a lot of people will roll their eyes at this, but I LOVE these games. The variance is FAR lower than any other form of poker that I've ever played, and for me, that's the primary driving force at the moment. I will be keeping an open mind to Cash games, as well as MTTs, and virtually any variant of Poker I feel I can profit at. I probably am passing up profit by playing these, but I feel there is no better way to grow the bankroll safely and healthily.

This isn't a sexy blog by any means, but winning 60% of these games, results in an ROI of 14.3%, $7.50/Game, and an average of $60/hr. And to me, $60/hr is pretty sexy. No matter how you slice it. This is roughly where I've been averaging. The drawback of Bovada is only 4 tables, but the player pool is REMARKABLY horrible. The $50s are VERY tough at times, but it only takes 1 fish out of 6 to juice up any game to profitability. Anonymous play has it's pros and cons, but overall I look at it as a positive bc no one knows who I am and how I play. I use Hold Em Indicator, which provides game by game HUD stats, which, while limited, proves invaluable in borderline decisions.

I've yet to incorporate multi-siting as of now, but I plan on doing so very shortly, I may mix and match cash games, MTTs and DONs, TBD.
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My Longer Term Goals Include:
- 100k+ 2015
- Debt Free ASAP (Mortgage, Cars, College Loans Etc.)
- Being free to travel, write, invest, basically do whatever I want.
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I think I have a very realistic chance at accomplishing my goals. My biggest concern is obviously being able to commit the time and effort necessary with a baby on the way. Theres a strong chance my whole desire to grind as often goes out the window when I'm a father. But my current mind frame is that I will simply adjust and adapt as needed. I'm as interested as anyone to see how this goes.

Failure for me simply means that Poker remains a side grind, which is fine if it happens. Either way I'm going to have 2 jobs, which one is my main gig is the only debate.

If you've read through this to this point, thank you. I hope that this is an interesting story that goes well and next year I can start a new Goal thread!

Wish Me Luck

- Danny A.

good luck bro

Gl man, I know format is a preference, but do you really think grinding DoN's is a good way to develop as a poker player?

Care to maybe post a graph? 60/hr is good, but you should divulge your sample size so it can be confirmed

-fellow bovada grinder

Subbed. Best of luck from one family man on the grind to another

Thanks for the GL Wishes Guys!

So I'll be graphing my progress from here on out, I just am far too lazy to go input individual data into excel at the moment, but these are my logs to this point

$50s Data
1064/1792 (59.4% Wins)
$94080 Invested
$11920 Profit
$1480/Week
$51.04/Hour
224 Games/Week (~7.72 games/Hour)
~29 Hours / Week since March 16th

$20s = 174/282 (61.7% Wins)
$1038 Profit

$10s = 50/74 (67.5% Wins)
$223 Profit

So my $60/HR estimate was slightly inflated but that's the data I have so far. Again, cue the sample size folks now, but that's part of why this is a year long process.

And personally I do not think DONs will stunt my development as "a poker player" as it is still Poker, just an odd variant. Will my development as a Cash Game or MTT player be affected, of course. But I'm now at the point where the opportunity cost of not playing DONs is quite high.

I'm properly rolled for 200NL but I'm not confident in my ability to match my Win Rate at the $50 DONs as it would require quite a high BB/100 or multi-siting so I'm going to remain where I've been successful for now.

I initially began playing 6-Max NL at 10/25NL, and while I was having decent success, I found that 4 tabling at Bovada alone resulted in ~325 Hands/HR (can't remember the exact number but it was slowish) which even at 25NL with a 10 BB/100 Win Rate (pretty dominant imo), is roughly $15-$17/ Hour.

I randomly dabbled in the $10 DONs one day, and ran like God and crushed right out the chute... I figured out my Games/HR, Bankroll Requirements, Achievable Win % which I find to be 7-8 games per hour roughly, I adhered to a fairly aggressive 25 Buy-In Requirement with shots when I felt like it to move up as quickly as possible, and IMO the upper echelon of mathematical possibility at 6 Max DONs is theoretically 70% wins (Impossible in reality, but if there were a perfect player who never ever made mistakes this is my wild guess). I figured as a bankroll builder it was a very safe vehicle... And now all of a sudden it's my specialty.

I was drawn to the definitive nature of the DON: Win or Lose. Simple. Minimal Variance. Perfect for a healthy mentality. I want to say the worst stretch of 100 games was right around 50%, but again, my logging intensity will now increase to a more professional level.

There is a point at which if I want to continue to increase my hourly with online poker, I will have to jump to cash games, this I know, as there is certainly a definitive ceiling on STTs of any variety. But I will cross this bridge if and when I get there.

I'm currently working on the ambulance and will start documenting all of my progress on this blog starting Sunday Night.

Until then, Later!

- Danny A.

Decided to put my Week 1 Goals up while I'm thinking about it:

Week 1/33:
-$2k Week
-35-40 Hours of Play
-250+ Games
-Begin pushing towards adding Tables. I've been playing the simple 4 table Bovada Max, but feel very comfortable at adding tables slowly but surely in order to increase my hourly further. I'm interested in seeing the diminishing rate of return and where my max profitability lands, from my past experience and current monitor setup (27 inch main screen with a small 18 inch(?) second monitor), I feel that 9-12 will be more than possible at these games, I'm just going to have to search out volume over multiple sites to do so. The 6 max games are not quite as easy to multi-table as their 10 man brethren, due to the obvious fact of playing 4 handed bubble play quite often. I definitely feel like the actual fun and enjoyment of playing diminishes greatly while mass multi-tabling, and although I might sacrifice shorter term profits, those of you familiar with 'leatherass' and his health effects due to pushing his playing too far, can understand that mental and physical health are critical to my professional goals. Therefore I will be extremely conservative at adding tables and messing with my current success. Back in the Stars days I would 12 Table $20 games, and comparing the current skill level of the games I play now to then is comparing Apples to Oranges. But what you give up in win rate you could more than makeup for in sheer volume.

Until later, keep grinding!

- Danny A.

Don't give up your job. 2 24 hour shifts is awesome. 5 days a week free. What more could you want? What about benefits and a pension?

Yea I definitely agree, my current situation is great. And part of this year long experiment is to see whether or not I can truly push my profitability to the point at which being a Paramedic is literally costing me $. My wife and I both have 401ks currently, and I would get an IRA if I were to truly swap careers. In regards to health insurance I can be on my wife's family plan, or purchase one on the private marketplace.

A little of it is job satisfaction as well. The burnout rate and physical toll of being a paramedic is high, there is a lot of system abuse and stresses applied constantly. I will always have it as a fall back as it is a safe field and I have personal connections into my company.

The simple answer is, I don't enjoy it. If it were my side gig to break up the monotony and poker was my higher paying main job, I would certainly prefer it. It's simply a freer lifestyle in general.

But yea, I might be a little crazy, but if I don't try it now in my life, I never will, so here's to taking a leap in life!

- Danny A.

Seems like you've put a lot of work and thought into it.

You're right about the h/hr on bovada too, I feel like my volume is really killing me when 2/4 tables could easily be zoom or I could add another 2-3 tables if the site allowed it.

100nl games are fairly soft if you decide to take a shot one day, 200nl is where most of the grinder/regs sit, including some 2/4 3/6 players since the games don't run all day.

Nice progress so far, gl

Yea, I feel like 4 200NL tables at Bovada mixed with a spread of games from Carbon and ACR could make for a profitable cash game setup. Especially with the rakeback / VIP programs at each. I can't imagine that any level gets all TOO tough at Bovada with the sheer volume of fish infused from the sportsbook and anon feature.

I would certainly have to adjust to the swings again though. My experience with 50NL (never fully dabbled in 100+ except recreationally) is filled with sick heaters paired with vicious soul crushing downswings.

I've thought about what would happen to Bovada if they increased their Max Cash / SnG tables... Might Reg them up too much. I like everything the way it is right now.

An interesting thought I've considered: For whatever reason you can play as many MTTs as you want in addition to the 4 cash / STTs. Would playing a lineup of solid buy-in MTTs in addition to my grind be a profitable combo? If I'm playing 6+ hour sessions anyway it might be worth it...

Anyone out there mix MTTs and Cash/SNGs with success?

- Danny A.

Quick thought:

Yardwork sucks.

That is all.

I'm thinking tonight I'm gonna go for a 5-6 hour session to start off the week.

Goal: 40 Games, 24-16, 60% Wins, 14.3% ROI, $300 Profit

Will update with results + graph later, here's hoping to start off this Goal on a nice heater.

- Danny A.

Session 1 Summary

+$252.50
- 39 Games Played (Miscounted lol)
- 23-16 (~59%... Almost nailed my goal if I didn't screw up and play 1 less by mistake)
- 39 Games in 5 Hours, 7.8 games/hour
- Hourly Rate for Session: $50.50

Overall, very happy with the session.

Had some CRAZY runs.

Started out 15-3, with an 11 in a row HEATER. Couldn't be stopped. Flips, won. Behind, caught up. Ahead, held easily. Other people clashing while I sit there and collect money. Overall quite a crazy streak.

Finished on a 8-13 Stretch. Basically the other side of the coin, Overpairs cracked, Kings into Aces twice, my steals were horrible failures. Couple mistakes thrown in there. Think I got a bit complacent being up so much at that point. Got slightly over-aggressive with shoves in marginal spots.

It all evens out to where I wanted to be, so definitely a plus session to start off this goal.

I bought Poker Tracker 4 and Bovada Hand Converter to help track this stuff. Not 100% on how to import yet, but I believe I have to wait 24 hours before the games are available. Graph coming! But for now, gotta get to bed so I can hit the grind again tomorrow.

- Danny A.

24 hour shifts out on the road

How can you cope with that? Surely must get ****ing tired towards the end.

Well, we post at our quarters when were not on a call much like a fire fighter. But there are days that you are doing calls the whole shift or most of it.

There are also shifts in which we do 1 call and get paid to essentially watch movies, sleep and eat.

The nature of the field is very unpredictable, which is both a pro and a con.

But yes, there are certain shifts where I go home at 7 am and I'm a zombie.

- Danny A.

Back on the Grind Today!

Gonna play... well, I'm not going to set a limit on myself, but at least a 5 hour grind today. Sunday-Tuesday are big grinding days due to my schedule.

Is it bad that a small part of me is simply paranoid that I'm a luckbox and am severely over-estimating my ability to maintain my current pace?

I take the time to objectively monitor my play with notes while I play, and I try to note when I get lucky, unlucky, make a mistake that leads to a L, get coolered, make a correct decision and simply not get rewarded. But despite this, I'm always paranoid of the "doomswitch" being flicked. I guess once I get my PT4 up and running it will help monitor my EV and whatnot... although I'm not sure how effective that is with SnGs as compared to cash games but I'll figure it out when I'm not grinding constantly...

Goal for this session: ~50 Games, 60% Wins, ~$50 Hourly.

-Danny A.

Jk, glglgl

If you wanted to become a poker pro, why did you spend all those years training to be a paramedic? Seems like such a waste to spend all that money and time training for a job, only to pack it in after a few years and follow your desired career (poker pro). No one becomes a successful poker pro by playing a bit on the side between a stressful job. They become a successful poker pro by dedicating their life to the game, by eating, sleeping and breathing poker. The fact you had to train yourself up for a different job tells me that 1) you're not confident you will succeed 2) you're making a half-arsed effort at it.

All that time you spent training to be a paramedic could have been spent taking advantage of the boom years in poker (2003-2008). You could have made millions and retired by now. Instead, you come into the industry when it's in decline and games are tougher than ever before and will continue to get even tougher.

What is your bankroll like? Are you over-rolled for the 50's? Do you have a healthy roll? Or are you somewhat under rolled?

Here is a good article on binomial distribution for sports betting and it will translate over to what your doing here with the DONS.

http://www.professionalgambler.com/binomial.html

It will probably help with your mindset when you have a block of 50 games where you only win 15 of them or so.

Haha Thanks man! I may be insane, but I have a BLAST playing these even after months of doing so. I think it's winning $ that makes almost any form of poker enjoyable lol...

Answer to your 1st question: Because I knew it was a safe, good career in which I had family connections and I had been an EMT for years and to progress in pay and advance, so I went to Paramedic school (for those unfamiliar, it's essentially a 2 year program consisting of class time, clinicals, etc.)

Also, if I were to go full-time Poker, I would remain a Part Time Paramedic to ensure a career safety net due to the unpredictable nature of Poker.

As to dedication, I play 30+ hours per week, pushing 40 recently, with an additional number of hours spent on 2+2, training sites, reading books related to poker. And while my main job is stressful, I leave it at work. There is nothing I need to think about or do related to Paramedicine once I go home.

In regards to the confidence in my ability, there is some merit to this. I believe that my goal is possible, but such a big decision in my life deserves more than just confidence. I don't care what job/career we're talking about, a backup plan is a good idea.

I assure you there is nothing half-assed about what I'm doing in regards to my effort and commitment, at least by my own standard.

My bankroll actually on Bovada is at the moment around 55 buy-ins ($2800), but it's sort of irrelevant as I withdraw down to $1500 frequently and my theoretical bankroll is far larger, I just don't ever want to get caught with too much on the site JUST IN CASE.

That's actually very helpful thanks! Yea I try to only focus on 100 game samples at minimum, and within every set of 100 there are ebbs and flows of heaters and downswings, and it's sometimes difficult to monitor actual play at times due to natural variance.

- Danny A.

In Play Thought:

It's amazing how there's a perceptible FEEL to variance for me.

Also, 12-11 feels so much better after a 3-7 start....

-Danny A.

Have you been playing the sunday mtt schedule?

Also I know it's really hard but try not to check pt4 during sessions. I know a lot of people do, and unless you tilt/become discouraged easily It shouldnt affect you too much, but it def affected me seeing I was down XXX
But once you are sure you are beating your stake (and you seem to have a good sample) I think it's better for the mindset to only check a couple times a week, I only check my graph every 10k hands or so and I've noticed that the times I have a 4-7 bi downswings pretty much go unnoticed now.
I rarely know how much im up/down (just a rough guess trying to remember sessions) and I actually feel like I can just play a little more stress free as opposed to before where I was counting the bi I was down and always had that in the back of my mind because I was always reviewing the play in my head wondering If i fudged it

gl man, keep up with the updates!

Thanks for the very very solid advice!

I've gotta say, that tilt is something I have a very good handle on at this point. "The Mental Game of Poker" helped me more than I can describe at managing it. Literally priceless.

I actually never pay attention to the cashier, for me that's extremely helpful. I track my play with notes as I go, so I can't completely phase it out, but I've found that with a very healthy bankroll, I don't chase losses or let it affect me nearly as much

When I've taken shots, I find that I am always timid in comparison to when I'm well rolled, so for me the bigger the roll, the better.

In regards to the MTT schedule, Sundays days are typically family / chore / errand days so if I were to do any MTTs, they would have to be nights. I'm certainly rolled well enough to play anything I'd like. Any recommendations?

- Danny A.

Rough Session Overall. Overall just felt like I ran fairly bad. Ran into a lot of big hands. Couldn't gain momentum at any point.

Session 2 Summary

-$225
- 50 Games Played
- 24-26 (48% Wins)
-6.25 Hours, 8 Games/Hr.
-$28.13/Hour

Hey, these sessions happen is the way I feel about it.

Critiques of myself: I would say there were times where I was marginally over-aggro. I was running into an inordinate number of dominated all-in situations. SB vs. BB shoves did not treat me well. The 150/300 level in particular was not friendly. In obvious light shove spots, I was running into the top of villain's range a lot. I honestly don't see a lot of blatant errors, mainly ran into a lot of marginal spots.

The 5 sets of 10 went as such:
3-7
7-3
4-6
4-6
6-4

It's really amazing how big of a difference one or two games can make. It makes you appreciate the concept of NEVER giving up on a game, no matter how few chips you have.

Overall challenge so far

89 Games in 11.25 HRs
47-42 (52.8%, NOT good enough)
+$27.50
$2.44 / Hour: YAA THE BIG BUCKS BABY.

I'm definitely not going to let this discourage me. These stretches are inevitable, and really it's a small sample compared to my overall play. I just have to be very mindful to ensure that it's variance and not too many mistakes. To be honest, I've had such a long run of running good/success, that this is probably healthy to help me remain grounded in reality.

The games felt tough at points. Not too many fish donking off early, which is always unfortunate.

Time to eat some dinner, relax with the wife and get back to the grind tonight.

Try to 41 Games in tonight min. Make it a nice 120 for the week, assess the stats from there.

-Danny A.

Just was reviewing my May results, yep, that last session was the worst session of the month. Blog Curse? Hmm......

I've played 13 sessions (went to Miami for a week for my friend's bachelor party, which was awesome, anyone who hasn't gone to South Beach: GO RIGHT NOW).

Overall May Stats
254-172; 426 Games Total (59.62% Wins)
+$3035 Overall ($7.13/Game)
56 Hours of Play
$54.20/Hour

In comparison, my Paramedic Stats!
~96 Hours of Work
$2240 (Pre-Tax, but so is the Poker $, OF COURSE)
~$23.33/ Hour... ($17.50 Flat, $26.25 OT Rate)

Ya. Poker Wins this contest.

- Danny A.