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Official 2011 Supernova pursuit thread Official 2011 Supernova pursuit thread

01-18-2011 , 12:08 AM
Still at just over 8k VPP... really slowed down after my last ten sessions in a row(!!) were all +EV or essentially breakeven according to HEM, and I lost money in all but two of them.

I go on vacation in two days, and I have a big seminar/coaching thing this weekend, so we'll see if that turns it around.

I dunno. It looks so easy on paper. 100K hands per month, 2bb/100 average, + rakeback = 3K a month, but... blech.
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01-18-2011 , 01:16 AM
Got above 10k vpp's but really starting to question if I have this in me. Inevitably each session I take a couple beats early and then just go into straight spew mode. I thought I had it figured out and was almost up to even on the month a few days ago and then boom. 6k hands -14 buy ins the last 2 days. I still have 25 buy ins for my level so not like I am going busto anytime soon but man I need to figure it out or give up because I am bleeding money. Going to have a friend sweat my session tomorrow and reevaluate my game/plan for the short term after that.
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01-18-2011 , 01:19 AM
5388
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01-18-2011 , 01:35 AM
Did some catching up today but still behind pace because of my time off

Had a terrible session EV wise, couldnt win a 70/30 or 80/20 to save myself. I mgihtve tilt spewed at the end but I still got most of it in ahead anyway

Might grind later tonight if I feel up for it but probs not after todays brutality
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01-18-2011 , 02:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CCuster_911
5388
Dont forget to increase ur AV. Stake for more vpps
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01-18-2011 , 04:31 AM
should make gold star tonight, 2900 at the minute , took some time off playing to sort holiday for me and the the kids to florida ( happy days ) , hopefully can get to about 5k by end of month , really dissapointed im not gonna make platinum but starting year with a 5 day downswing and taking a break didn,t help.Anyway back in the black now with about $400 profit so hopefully i run good/reasonable for the next 2 weeks and get stuck in.

Good luck everyone
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01-18-2011 , 04:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gaz3325
should make gold star tonight, 2900 at the minute , took some time off playing to sort holiday for me and the the kids to florida ( happy days ) , hopefully can get to about 5k by end of month , really dissapointed im not gonna make platinum but starting year with a 5 day downswing and taking a break didn,t help.Anyway back in the black now with about $400 profit so hopefully i run good/reasonable for the next 2 weeks and get stuck in.
Good luck everyone
Hi, do you plan to move up the stakes this year/swiching to turbos? Doing SN on 1$ raked games is (quite) tough imo, esp. if regular speed.
Anyway, good luck!
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01-18-2011 , 05:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pharreal_87
not a bad finish to the day.
Yes cant complain about that tbh would be nice to start making a profit on the year tho
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01-18-2011 , 06:31 AM
11736
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01-18-2011 , 12:32 PM
4,458
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01-18-2011 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by starvingwriter82
Just found a graph on Needbeer's blog where he runs at an loltastic 40 buyins under EV in 1400 hands.

So. Sick.

Definitely need to rethink BR management strategy in a big way.

I wonder if 300 buyins is sufficient? 500? ffs. Maybe I should be grinding the MTTs.
Here's another needbeer post for ya. just a little 5000bb swing, no biggie.

Quote:
Originally Posted by needbeer
Yeah, that's some tough variance, but could be worse. In my ~4-5 million hands last year there was a stretch of hands (200-300K hand stretch) where I ran 5000BB under EV (and thus the reason I recommend having a bankroll of 5000BB if you hope to withstand the worst of the worst variance.) In other words, your $2500 under could be $10000, def not out of the realm of possibilities.
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01-18-2011 , 12:49 PM
If you're a winning player then in 200k-300k hands you should expect to make at least 50 BI. So even if you run 50 BI below EV that does not equate to a 50BI downswing. Moreover the bankroll recommendation seems to imply you never move down.
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01-18-2011 , 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh2Day
Got above 10k vpp's but really starting to question if I have this in me. Inevitably each session I take a couple beats early and then just go into straight spew mode. I thought I had it figured out and was almost up to even on the month a few days ago and then boom. 6k hands -14 buy ins the last 2 days. I still have 25 buy ins for my level so not like I am going busto anytime soon but man I need to figure it out or give up because I am bleeding money. Going to have a friend sweat my session tomorrow and reevaluate my game/plan for the short term after that.
I had a similar problem and found the solution was to start the session with half the number of tables and then add one every 5 minutes until I reach the full quota. That way if things go wrong early its much less damaging, plus you're easing into the session a bit more. If you go for a 5 mile run you don't start off sprinting and yet players fall out of bed and immediately fire up 24 tables!

I've actually cut my table numbers down from 14-16 to 8-10 over the last couple of days as I took quite a hit over the weekend. I won't surprise anyone that I've immediately started winning again. I'll be honest I had 20-50bb at 10NL down as just a shove if you got it fold if you don't game, but there's a lot more bluffing and calling light going on than I was spotting with 16 tables open. Of course dropping table numbers hurts in the SN pursuit but as people are finding dropping multiple buy ins doesn't help your chances much either.
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01-18-2011 , 02:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kryzstoffcz
Hi, do you plan to move up the stakes this year/swiching to turbos? Doing SN on 1$ raked games is (quite) tough imo, esp. if regular speed.
Anyway, good luck!
I was hoping to stay at the regular games rather than move to turbo,s, just what im used to, and your right it,s proberbly gonna be to hard to get SN without moving up especially as i dont play as many games as yourself at once for example.
My plan was/is to try increase my tables to a level which i can cope with then hopefully move up levels later in the year. I used to play upto $44 level on another site and was profitable over a big sample of games although there was not as many grinders/regs, so im hopeing it works out ok on stars.
My biggest problem is that im going to vegas and florida which will eat into my playing time but there,s a long way to go so im just gonna see how things go for the first couple of months.

Good luck mate in the higher levels, no doubt i will bump into you again , keep me posted on your progress
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01-18-2011 , 03:05 PM
kryzstoffcz I agree with your comment on the $1 rake.

I feel if I don't get into the 25's soon then supernova is going to be a massive panic at the end of the year.
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01-18-2011 , 03:06 PM
Im still at 5k vpps, I have been slacking this last week! I have school starting this week and I will be playing in the The Winter open @ the borgata. If i hit 7,500 vpps by the end of this month I will be happy!!
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01-18-2011 , 06:07 PM
494 games at $13 6man and -$320. Variance or something wrong with my game?
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01-18-2011 , 06:16 PM
3822

Behind the pace, but am running well and have the BR to easily move up the levels as and when needed.

Enjoying running well this year, so happy to keep the profits and catch up on points later down the line.
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01-18-2011 , 06:28 PM
Just wrapped up my ninth straight day of +EV, -profit poker. Thankfully today I had about +$40 in EV, so I ended up losing less than one buyin. (-$3.05 in profits). My HEM session screen is entirely red, if you couldn't see the EV column, you'd think I was the biggest idiot in poker.
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01-18-2011 , 07:04 PM
Starvingwriter, it sounds like you need a Doctor :-)

Remember, sometimes it's good to run bad, get all that run bad all out of the way, so that you run like God for the rest of the year! You just have to change your attitude!

Y'see, Poker (to me) is the perfect metaphor for life. You can do everything "right" and still get screwed, and you can do everything "wrong" and still make it. The universe is constantly in flux, it appears to be chaotic and beyond our comprehension to understand. But it's actually "orderly" variables and some basic physics all working out exactly the way it was intended.

In the context of your current situation, you've got to take every negative day as an opportunity to learn, from yourself and your decisions, from the intentions and motivations that guide other peoples decisions.

No one said poker is easy, or that it will always work out the way you intend. But I strongly believe that anyone with enough willpower and enough determination can achieve ANYTHING if they put their mind to it.

Sometimes it is darkest just before the dawn, starvingwriter82 :-)

DOCTOR, OUT :-)

P.S.- I have achieved 2% of my goal!

Last edited by The+Doctor; 01-18-2011 at 07:07 PM. Reason: progress update
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01-18-2011 , 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The+Doctor
Starvingwriter, it sounds like you need a Doctor :-)

Remember, sometimes it's good to run bad, get all that run bad all out of the way, so that you run like God for the rest of the year! You just have to change your attitude!

Y'see, Poker (to me) is the perfect metaphor for life. You can do everything "right" and still get screwed, and you can do everything "wrong" and still make it. The universe is constantly in flux, it appears to be chaotic and beyond our comprehension to understand. But it's actually "orderly" variables and some basic physics all working out exactly the way it was intended.

In the context of your current situation, you've got to take every negative day as an opportunity to learn, from yourself and your decisions, from the intentions and motivations that guide other peoples decisions.

No one said poker is easy, or that it will always work out the way you intend. But I strongly believe that anyone with enough willpower and enough determination can achieve ANYTHING if they put their mind to it.

Sometimes it is darkest just before the dawn, starvingwriter82 :-)

DOCTOR, OUT :-)

P.S.- I have achieved 2% of my goal!
+1 for Dark Knight quote.
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01-18-2011 , 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by huntypro
494 games at $13 6man and -$320. Variance or something wrong with my game?

i ran super bad first week of the year and still still getting turned over by the software more often than not, fortunately im in the black again ,maybe coz ive dropped number of tables , im not sure.

Whats your usuall stats for these games?? $320 downswings happen plenty m8 in these and lately its been crazy, might be that + a little tilting maybe?.
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01-18-2011 , 07:42 PM
Here we go again

Big expectations of today
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01-18-2011 , 07:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by huntypro
494 games at $13 6man and -$320. Variance or something wrong with my game?
could easily, easily be variance.
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01-18-2011 , 08:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by starvingwriter82
Just wrapped up my ninth straight day of +EV, -profit poker. Thankfully today I had about +$40 in EV, so I ended up losing less than one buyin. (-$3.05 in profits). My HEM session screen is entirely red, if you couldn't see the EV column, you'd think I was the biggest idiot in poker.
Is this your thing now? Clogging up the SN Pursuit thread with these whiny, blah blah running below EV posts? Because your attitude sucks and is frankly, quite boring. We are all poker players here. We know what it's like to run like *******. Nobody wants to read your constant running bad rambly posts. -$3.05 in EV? ARE YOU SERIOUS?

We are all trying to a achieve a goal here. The last thing we need is your constant negative BS potentially demotivating some people here who are trying to work their asses off to meet their goals.
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