Whats that betfair premium charge about?

Hi Gramps, thanks for the kind words.

FWIW, i think your the type of guy who could do well in sports betting if you put your mind to it. From what i've read in your thread i'm going to make some assumptions that back up the above statement.

1. You have the work ethic.
2. You are near / at the top of the SNG ladder, so you have likely done some kind of analysis on your own outside of the regular channels to get your game to that level. This kind of analysis is whats needed to beat sports. I know jorg95 has a sports betting background and when he was the original guy to crush hypers he used that background to come up with his own "system" to beat them.
3. You likely have enough money, which can buy you the time (months) to work on sports betting, where you would gain the skills necessary to beat it. You would also be able to give yourself a reasonable starting roll, which would get you earning some money relatively quickly.

I'll pm you a you tube link which would show you whats involved to get started. (will pm me to others if requested, shoot me a pm). I'd be happy to give u a few pointers via pm if you wanted, but if you want to bet on golf, i will not help!

Nope, i needed to change the currency of my account for banking issues. Betfair do not ban winners as they need the liquidity. Instead they just tax them through the roof for the large winners via premium charge. I explain that below.

Good stuff, Good Luck! For visa's i'm very lazy and what i do isn't legal so i'll answer via pm.

I'll give u my comments via pm.

http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/

If you look at that link you can see Betfair's commission system is really complicated.

I'll try to explain it simply...

1. If you open a new account, the base commission u pay is 5% of all profits on winning bets.

2. The more commission you pay, you earn points which reduce your base commission. I pay around 3% base commission for each winning bet.

3. IF you start winning a lot, Betfair have a some complicated formula which works how efficiently you are taking money out of the exchange, while trying to not overcharge rec betters. If they deem you to be winning too much too fast they will then charge you:

Premium Charge = 20% of your total lifetime accounts profits - commission already payed

So essentially, if betfair work out you are a winner, betfair takes 20% of your profits, and you keep 80%.

4. If you earn £250,000 lifetime at betfair, the premium charge jumps up to 40% - 60% depending on how much base commission you pay.

There are ways around trying to pay less premium charge, (i wrote them out but deleted them ) but all of those things are tough to implement. I'll start to do them if i hit 40%+.

At the moment, I pay 20% PC. I lose about 10% of my winnings to premium charge and 10% payed in base rate commission. All of the graphs i post, you need to take about 10% off to get actual profit.

Some Comments / Questions

How Can Betfair Get Away With Raking So Much?

They have a complete monopoly on the sports exchange market, its where all the recs bet and so the winners have no choice but to pay the charge. It doesn't effect rec's so they keep betting there with the attitude, "i'll worry about it if i start to get charged".

It does destroy the dream that you can earn really big money, but its not enough to put off new bettors. Even if you get to step 4, you are likely to be smart enough to keep earning by good $ by betting.

Premium Charge In Poker?

I believe this could be coming soon. Party may have already implemented it...

1. We know they segregate accounts based on winnings.
2. They recently introduce a 3% withdrawal "tax".
3. There wasn't a huge outcry in NVG when Party essestially stole 3% of all player balances, millions of $. Just a few winning regs bitched about it in MTTC, everyone lopped 3% of roi's and continue to play there with adjusted game selection (cutting out marginal ev tournaments), the perfect result for party gaming.

Obviously i'm wildly speculating, but it looks like the poker industry may be heading this way in future. As smaller sites die and PS monopoly grows, i wouldn't be surprised if Pokerstars go this way, the upper powers wanting to maintain their big dividends as the online poker industry continues to dwindle. Just in the same way Betfair have with little consequences.

Week 39 Update

Poker

Got 2 Sessions In, both were ****, played average, but i won the last small stake tournament table of the day both times, so kind of ended on a high both sessions even tho i lost money.

Week



September

So pretty slack month pokerwise, only played 3 sessions.



State Of The Games

Continuing with my bearish outlook on poker, i was fixing up my data for my game selection tool and noticed an increased in the difficulty of some my MTTs with around a 5% - 15% drop in my expected roi over the last 6 months. A 10% drop would be an roi of 30% dropping to 27%. The slower structured tournaments were the most affected, with a smaller drop on turbos and hypers. This could just be due to the time of year, i will have to look again in another 6 months (when i started compiling data).

The loss of Revolution and IPN networks, reducing the amount of tournaments to chose from, also makes matters worse. The new PS schedule coming out will likely reduce off peak buy-ins and number of tournaments available will be another big hit.

Golf Betting

We are now betting in £ instead of $.

European Tour

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

No PGA tour this week, all the big names taking well earned rest after the Fed Ex playoffs. So this weeks field had a lack of big names, just a few our of form guys, but deep with lots of good solid journeymen playing.

As stated last week, i dont like this event, pro-am and multicourse. It didn't go that great for me either, doing badly in 2/3 balls. I was expecting a loss, but on the final day the big names didn't produce and a bunch of lower tier guys swamped to the top of the leaderboard. This went well for my win market! but **** for my place market (-£2658).

Ended up being a Playoff between Peter Uihelm (+£1200) and David Howell +(+£6400). I was playing poker at the time and kept an eye on it, and decided to hedge the playoff which David Howell went on to win. Cuddles all round.



Win Market: +£3865

All Markets

Shipped the Chesson Hadley Victory on Web.Com Tour Championship (+£3449), but lost at First Tee Open (Champions Tour) (-£899). Lost a couple of £k on 2/3balls at Alfred Dunhill.

All Markets: +£1596 (-£146 PC )



October Goals

[] Bet on this weeks matchplay events, including top scorer markets, and the overall winner markets. <-- This is a lot of work, starting tonight! Probably 12 to 24 hours worth of programming.

[] 400 Poker Tournaments. Minimum 2 8+ Hour Poker sessions a week.

The Week Ahead

All matchplay this week (beside LPGA tour), with Presidents Cup (US vs ROW) and Seve Trophy (UK+Ire vs Cont. Euro), so time to get my programming done otherwise i'm going to miss out on betting this week. Time to get in a "work cave" for a couple of days.

GLA

Sup, you allright? Did the typhoon thingy affect your life much? Hope to see an update soon!

Yeah, hope all's well. Keep checking in for an update - would be nice to see

profile is last last activity 1:50 today so seems so.

Hope all is good, nasty stuff.

Really enjoy your updates, hope your doing well.

Subbed!

Any news?

Anyone heard from Jay?

Bump

Hope your doing OK

Hi Peeps,

Long-time no see. Thanks for the concern over the typhoon, it didn't hit Manila, so didn't affect my life too much, but what is happened / happening down south is obviously really really really ****.


Where Have You Been?

Nowhere, just needed a long break from poker and 2+2. I was so burned out from playing so much poker, hating every second of it, that i don’t think I’ve played in 2 months, and the month before only couple of sessions.

Instead, I’ve been betting on all the Golf tournaments and taking it easy. On semi - holiday.

Motivation Problems

It’s funny, after i achieved my goals in this thread, and could coast to my second goal of 300k i kind of lost all motivation to make money. My main motivation was to save up $160k for the construction on my house, but as soon as i got close to that, i didn't really know what i was grinding for.

Actually hitting my goals kind of made me a bit depressed. I remember while i was grinding hard towards something i wasn't that happy since i mostly hate grinding poker these days. i thought **** would be a lot better once i got myself out of the hole i got myself in when i went busto 2 years back, but in reality you've just removed one life "problem" of a checklist but others remain.

In truth i still don’t really know what i want to do. I’ve long since got over stuff wanting to bink a big tournament or anything like that poker related, and have been just grinding poker to make money. So if i didn't really want the money for anything why would i do something that I’m loathing for like 50% of the time I’m doing it?

Going to have more time off and travel for a couple of months. Hopefully **** will be a bit clearer then.


Golf Betting

Over the last 3 months, i have needed to cash out large chunks of my roll so i can stick it safely in the bank for the construction on my house. ($160k). It’s quite difficult to get withdrawing the vast majority of your roll right.

It’s the balance of these two factors below that i needed to consider.

1. Maintaining a Good Working Roll - Take out too much, my stakes are massively reduced, reducing my earning power.

2. Minimizing the chance of a downswing - Leave too much on / get too greedy there is a good chance i could hit a big downer, resulting that I’m unable to cash out the target figure. I got over confident / excited for the DP World Championship couple of weeks ago and hit a $20k downer.

So as the golf season died down i was doing large regular cash outs. Last week i only had $30k online used for betting, compared to the $130k i was using at my peak 4 months back.


Results Since Last Update (26/09/13)

Markets +$5000 or more

Shriners Hospitals For Children Open 2013 : Winner +$5942.39

Webb Simpson blew away a weak PGA Tour field, deserved after a solid but winless season.



Turkish Airlines Open 2013 : Winner +$8101.67

Great stuff from overnight leader Victor Dubuisson on the final day to hold off all the big names including Tiger.



South African Open 2013 : Winner +$5144.33

Charl Schwartzel ****ed it up on the final day leaving the door open for my man Moren Orum Madsen.




Markets -$5000 or more

Portugal Masters 2013 : Winner -$6159

Bad final day for me with David Lynn shooting -8 to come from nowhere to pip my greens by a shot. Scott Jamieson (pictured below) missed the putt for a 59 mirrors my feelings at the time about this tournament.




Graph Since Last Update (26/09/13)




Yearly Poker Results

I'm obviously done playing poker for the year so here is my final graph.



(Probably missing up to $10k from 888)


Yearly Golf Betting Results

The golf season finished yesterday for Christmas, so done for the year.



(Take off about $25k from that total, paid in premium charges)


2014 And Beyond...

More Time Off and Holidays

Complete 2 week break for Christmas in UK, and lots of holiday planned for January and February. Will probably get back to work in full force by March, ready to hit some new goals then.

Next year i won’t be needed to cash out nearly as much from my sports betting as i had to this year for my house, so i really would like to try and see if i can get to the top of the game and try and hit nosebleed stakes for it.

I may partner up with friends to make it all much more efficient and turn it in to a proper business, but i would likely need to be in the UK to sort all that **** out. This would also pave the way for me to branch out to other sports with bigger liquidity.

Exit From Poker

I've been playing poker a long time now, since 2005 so i think barring going busto again I’d like to think as next year is my final year. The games are so much worse than they were and I’m pretty bored of all aspects of poker. I think i get myself up for one large push to milk the cash cow before it’s gone.

I've got big life changes happening in 2015 and after that i think i would rather have less money than play poker full time anymore and do something different with my life instead of gambling if my sports betting doesn't pan out (but I’m confident that it will).


Poker Goals and Challenges

So this is likely my last update in this forum. I may make a short thread next year to motivate myself when i get back on the grind, I'll be working with a small roll to push myself to get to a $100k roll or something but i likely will not.

A couple of reasons for stopping.

1. I don’t want to make just a barg pg&c thread and want to post interesting and useful content for fellow gamblers. If i were to make a thread next year I’m not sure if i have much interesting positive stuff to say about poker and related as i have posted in the past. If 2014 is my last year playing poker then I will be putting little time doing poker related work away from the tables and just playing instead. This will give me little to talk about except results.

2. If my sports betting goes well, i will have to keep large balances online and i don’t want to broadcast how much money i have online for peace of mind.

3. Encouraging +ev gamblers to bet on sports is likely going to be -ev if they become really good at the sports i want to bet on. I’ve already become paranoid I’ve given away too much info in these threads (when I probably haven’t). Even if 1 guy works out what I’m doing (unlikely) and becomes a competitor in the markets I’m betting on it massively eradicates my ev. I think for sports betting it’s better to fly under the radar.


Thank You and Farewell

I just want to say thank you to all my followers over the last 2 years. It’s been a great run, and all of you who posted encouraging comments really inspired me to get out of my busto hole and get my house built. I hope you all enjoyed reading it as much as i enjoyed updating it.

Peace to all, see you at the tables at some point I’m sure. Always feel free to chat to me if you see me.

I'll keep the thread open until the end of the year for comments / questions and I’ll then lock it and let it die in the 2+2 achieves.

GLA

JayPez

Sad to see you go mate, probably my favourite thread to follow for most of the year, at least u ended with a bang and doubled what u wanted to make this year! I can't believe how consistently you can win at golf betting though, seems unreal hah very nice work.

Hope to see you posting in future, GL with everything.

Well, I'm glad you aren't playing my poker games anymore. gl with the sports betting.

loved to read it Jay, gl with your (future) endeavors.

That golf betting graph is ****ing legendary, gl in 2014 and beyond.

just read the whole thread. man awesome stuff. its unfortunate i came at the end. GL with everything.

Great thread, and gl ahead.

Def a favorite here, sad to see you gone but this and your last thread has been favorited for a long time and I do go back and watch them page by page from time to time for inspiration.

Sick graphs, both of them, very variance free graph from poker I would say!

GL with everything

Wow, deepest respect sir. GL next year.

Sick graphs. GL next year!

Completely agree, its better to fly under the radar.

Thanks for the interesting stories throughout the year!!

This thread is so ****ing amazing , I rememeber grinding $7 & $15/27s with you a few years back and getting owned in every spot vs you, Best of luck in the future sir

Was an awesome thread, always a pleasure to read your updates. Amazing year and gl in 2014 and beyond. You really did an awesome job (both poker- and golfbettingwise)

I loved this thread, I found the golf betting fascinating.
I'm also big on sports betting so it was entertaining for me.

Where did you get/fabricate the graph used for golf betting?

will miss the graph porn.
best of luck next year and congrats on everything