Off-Peak MTTs and Beyond... --$150k 2013 Challenge-- & ??..$50k Golf Betting..??
Wow- after reading this I LOL'd at myself for ever thinking that I could 'just play alot' and improve my game..
Thanks for the insight into your process.
Thanks for the insight into your process.
Week 8 Update
Poker
Kinda a week where nothing really went right. Good first session, and then downhill from there.
Computer Problems
Next day i reg'd up my whole session. The day before i upgraded my computer to 16GB ram to handle running all the poker and golf stuff. For some reason as i got up to 24 tables of MTT's and 18mans i ran out of hard disk space on my ssd because of a large page file. This caused everything to go tits up was forced to try a free up space while mass tabling. Had to go for a reboot with everything going, but PS didn't shut down properly and corrupted my user.ini file. Comp restarted but everything was set to default settings, by that time, had 28 tables pop'd up with a completely unplayable layout. Had to go for an unreg all and try and fix it while play but the session was a disaster. Session culmilated with KK < 99 for huge pot on the bubble of the 2x $215 turbo and tilt ensured. So took the following day off.
Bodyclock, Being Tired & Bad Play
Next session i played my ****ed up bodyclock woke me up at midnight couldn't get back to sleep, so worked on some various stuff all night then started the grind a 7am. I didn't do a review because of the ****ed up last session i didn't mark any hands, which kinda threw my pre play routine. A couple of hours in i felt i was playing terrible due to being tired so went for unreg all again (first time this year due to bad play). Final table bubbled $100 2r1a and the $100r, pretty frustrating session.
Stress and Burnout
After that i took the day off, but i just couldn't shake the thoughts of misplays, variance etc that day. Went out for drinks that night but still couldn't stop thinking about work, think i was tired. My mate told me sincerely that i've been working too hard this year, and i realised that i'm pretty stressed out. It dawned on me "what the **** am i stressed about?" my results this year have been outstanding.
I worked out its not the work thats stressing me, its my ability to switch off from it, constant 24/7 variance from golf betting doesn't help and has ****ed up my sleep. In March i'm going to look for ways to help me switch off better, relax my mind and work on my life balance.
I've been so driven to achieve my goals i've set out in this thread and post more and more good results that i've taken it too far and burnt myself out.
Havn't played poker since. GF's got time off this week so probably gonna rest, so i come back fresh for march, but may grind a little to try and get bit closer to my volume goals.
Week
Month
Pace
$ Pace = $23014 : Me = $56360
Volumn Pace = $2301 : Me = 2424
Golf Betting
Didn't get my simulator done for the WGC Matchplay, I started it, then realised how much work it was and that it wasn't worth it for the time being for so few matchplay events and that my time was best spent playing poker.
Web.Com Tour
Panama Claro Championship
However betfair did put up a win market for the Web.Com Tour opener in Panama. Low Liquidity and win only market was gonna mean high variance. In the end was lucky to cash in on the winner Kevin Foley (picture below) who held off a swongy final round from Mathew Goggin (-$3000). Nice to run good.
+$2876
Year To Date Golf Betting
Months up so yearly golf graph. Last Bink could have easily been the other way up.
Exciting week ahead, with some good liquidity in the markets as Tiger and Rory battle it out for the Honda Classic, Rory Defending champ and Tiger finished T 2nd last year.
Goals
February Goals
Poker
[] 1200 Total Games - (894)
[] 900 Scheduled Games - (624)
Fitness
[] Gym 6 Times - (5)
[] 3 Sessions With Trainer - (0) <-- First one setup for Saturday.
Smoking
[] Make A Plan How To Reduce Smoking Starting In March <-- Gonna make a plan in March to not smoke before i start my sessions. My thinking is along the lines of "i dont drink before i play as my brain cant handle it", so "dont smoke before i play as my lungs cant handle it". Same as that i dont smoke the during the day before i goto the gym. I should be able to do it.
Back in couple of days for month roundup and March Goals.
GLA!!
Great thread man, rooting for you
Sick golf graph, nice work
this thread is sick. subbed, GL
great thread mate keep up the work, inspiring for mtters
GL and see you at the tables. Wish I woulda seen this thread last week-- and told you to keep an eye out for Kuchar . It's a ways away, but I'd book him for the PGA championship at Oak Hill. Fits his game very well + plus it's his year for a major.
cheers guys, lurk all your threads, there's a lot of threads to follow this year! gl2allu2
thanks, glad its inspiring.
hah, didn't bet the matchplay, the pga championships a looooong way away and typically the market is dead until the open is over, probably start betting it then, but thanks for the tip.
Feb Review
Didn't play anymore in Feb, needed a well earned rest so ready to work hard for March.
February Goals
Poker
[] 1200 Total Games - (894)
[] 900 Scheduled Games - (624)
Fitness
[] Gym 6 Times - (6)
[] 3 Sessions With Trainer - (0)
So only 1/4 last month.
Volume Goals
I've realised i'm pushing myself too hard with my volume goals and burning myself out. I still worked really hard last month so i'm not too worried i missed them. When i'm working non stop it ****s up my life balance as all i'm doing is working so all i think about is work (unsuprisingly), its not sustainable longer term. Next month i'll set the same targets and try to make them starting grinding from the 1st.
Life Balance
I've decided that i need a new hobby which doesn't involve anything to do with work to give myself a complete break from poker, variance, money etc.
Like in my time off from poker i'll often do stuff like...
- watch golf (gambling)
- goto a bar (discuss with staff about the new opening)
- play a computer game (poker's a computer game!)
- watch a movie (staring at a screen, i stare at a screen all day!)
All my relax time is still kinda linked / similar to my work, so i needed a hobby that gets me out of the house and doesn't involve gambling or staring a screen. Theres a new wakepark opened up about 20mins away and its really cheap, tried it last week and was good fun so gonna try and take that up.
Fitness
Had my first training session saturday. It was good so going to book the guy for the next 10 weeks committing myself to going to gym twice a week. Setting a time will force me to go so i don't become lathargic and will give my week some kinda ruetine where i need to wake up AM. Its cheap in philly so no real downside.
Week 9 Update
Poker
Started playing again Friday. Even Stevens until yesterday where i made 5.5k or so. Ended up working for 16 hours yersterday with 12 hours playing time, its too much and was tired and became pretty spewy, button clicky, bored by the end. However one of the highlights was this tourney;
WTA Overlaaaaaaaaaaay.............
Cashes Over $1k
1st PS $55 Turbo $1930
2nd PS $109 6max $1000
3rd Revolution $82r $1125
Month
Year
Months up so yearly graph.
Pace
$ Pace = $25890 : Me = $62838
Game Pace = 2589 : Me = 2644
Golf Betting
European Tour
Tshwane Open
Last event in South African, thank ****. The last couple of events have been increadibly dull and hadn't done that well untill this man...
Dawie Van Der Walt, who held off African Open Winner Darren Ficardt (-$1000) to win by 2 shots.
Win Market: +$2777
Other Markets: +$259
Pga Tour
Honda Classic
Great event hosted at the PGA National in Florida, really liked the course, tough and exciting. By the time the leaders teed off the final round my positions were...
-8 Luke Guthrie (+$7200)
-8 Michael Thompson (+$6300)
-6 Lee Westwood (-$1200)
-6 Greg Ogivly (-$200)
They didn't tee off until 2:30am local, and i fell asleep for couple of hours, but a restless with PGA Tour XFM radio providing commentary while trying to ZZZ. Woke up and watched the final 6 holes. Greg Ogivly birdie'd the last 2 but in the end it was pretty comfortable for Thompson and played very well under the pressure. Tense watching tho!
Win Market: +$6294
Other Markets: +$2091
Rory McIlroy was 7 Over after his first 8 holes in the 2nd round, dumped it in the water on the 18th and then just walked off the course blaming "mental problems" and then a "tooth ache".
Overall
Ran like god yesterday in the win markets, feels great!
All Markets: +$11424
Shame Premium Charge is gonna take a chunk (15%) on wednesday.
Audiobooks
Arnold Schwarzenegger
I've been listening to audiobooks for a while, sometimes when grinding, but mostly when i have to do mundane ****, (traveling, gym, waiting etc). I Have to shout out this audiobook i finished this month. Its his autobiography explaining his highly entertaining story and the steps he took to achieve all his success over multiple fields. Highly recommended, I've learnt so much about how to go about work. Link Below.
Total Recall: My Unbelievably True Life Story
March Goals
Poker
[] 1200 Total Games - (216)
[] 900 Scheduled Games - (164)
Fitness
[] Gym 8 Sessions with Trainer - (1)
Smoking
[] No Smoking until after i have started playing
Working Hours
[] No More then 14 Hours Work in One Day. <-- Yesterdays 16 hour day was too much. Playing poorly when tired and ****ing up my bodyclock. Gonna put this in place so i dont push myself too hard, "slow and steady wins the race." (someone said that in the thread!).
GLA This Week
thanks, glad its inspiring.
Feb Review
Didn't play anymore in Feb, needed a well earned rest so ready to work hard for March.
February Goals
Poker
[] 1200 Total Games - (894)
[] 900 Scheduled Games - (624)
Fitness
[] Gym 6 Times - (6)
[] 3 Sessions With Trainer - (0)
So only 1/4 last month.
Volume Goals
I've realised i'm pushing myself too hard with my volume goals and burning myself out. I still worked really hard last month so i'm not too worried i missed them. When i'm working non stop it ****s up my life balance as all i'm doing is working so all i think about is work (unsuprisingly), its not sustainable longer term. Next month i'll set the same targets and try to make them starting grinding from the 1st.
Life Balance
I've decided that i need a new hobby which doesn't involve anything to do with work to give myself a complete break from poker, variance, money etc.
Like in my time off from poker i'll often do stuff like...
- watch golf (gambling)
- goto a bar (discuss with staff about the new opening)
- play a computer game (poker's a computer game!)
- watch a movie (staring at a screen, i stare at a screen all day!)
All my relax time is still kinda linked / similar to my work, so i needed a hobby that gets me out of the house and doesn't involve gambling or staring a screen. Theres a new wakepark opened up about 20mins away and its really cheap, tried it last week and was good fun so gonna try and take that up.
Fitness
Had my first training session saturday. It was good so going to book the guy for the next 10 weeks committing myself to going to gym twice a week. Setting a time will force me to go so i don't become lathargic and will give my week some kinda ruetine where i need to wake up AM. Its cheap in philly so no real downside.
Week 9 Update
Poker
Started playing again Friday. Even Stevens until yesterday where i made 5.5k or so. Ended up working for 16 hours yersterday with 12 hours playing time, its too much and was tired and became pretty spewy, button clicky, bored by the end. However one of the highlights was this tourney;
WTA Overlaaaaaaaaaaay.............
Cashes Over $1k
1st PS $55 Turbo $1930
2nd PS $109 6max $1000
3rd Revolution $82r $1125
Month
Year
Months up so yearly graph.
Pace
$ Pace = $25890 : Me = $62838
Game Pace = 2589 : Me = 2644
Golf Betting
European Tour
Tshwane Open
Last event in South African, thank ****. The last couple of events have been increadibly dull and hadn't done that well untill this man...
Dawie Van Der Walt, who held off African Open Winner Darren Ficardt (-$1000) to win by 2 shots.
Win Market: +$2777
Other Markets: +$259
Pga Tour
Honda Classic
Great event hosted at the PGA National in Florida, really liked the course, tough and exciting. By the time the leaders teed off the final round my positions were...
-8 Luke Guthrie (+$7200)
-8 Michael Thompson (+$6300)
-6 Lee Westwood (-$1200)
-6 Greg Ogivly (-$200)
They didn't tee off until 2:30am local, and i fell asleep for couple of hours, but a restless with PGA Tour XFM radio providing commentary while trying to ZZZ. Woke up and watched the final 6 holes. Greg Ogivly birdie'd the last 2 but in the end it was pretty comfortable for Thompson and played very well under the pressure. Tense watching tho!
Win Market: +$6294
Other Markets: +$2091
Rory McIlroy was 7 Over after his first 8 holes in the 2nd round, dumped it in the water on the 18th and then just walked off the course blaming "mental problems" and then a "tooth ache".
Overall
Ran like god yesterday in the win markets, feels great!
All Markets: +$11424
Shame Premium Charge is gonna take a chunk (15%) on wednesday.
Audiobooks
Arnold Schwarzenegger
I've been listening to audiobooks for a while, sometimes when grinding, but mostly when i have to do mundane ****, (traveling, gym, waiting etc). I Have to shout out this audiobook i finished this month. Its his autobiography explaining his highly entertaining story and the steps he took to achieve all his success over multiple fields. Highly recommended, I've learnt so much about how to go about work. Link Below.
Total Recall: My Unbelievably True Life Story
March Goals
Poker
[] 1200 Total Games - (216)
[] 900 Scheduled Games - (164)
Fitness
[] Gym 8 Sessions with Trainer - (1)
Smoking
[] No Smoking until after i have started playing
Working Hours
[] No More then 14 Hours Work in One Day. <-- Yesterdays 16 hour day was too much. Playing poorly when tired and ****ing up my bodyclock. Gonna put this in place so i dont push myself too hard, "slow and steady wins the race." (someone said that in the thread!).
GLA This Week
So sick start of the year!
Sometimes you're +7 after 8 and your day is unlikely to get better
incredible start of the year, gl in march
glgl man, thanks for the link
Loving this thread already.
I'd say GL but you don't need it right now. Keep it up!
I'd say GL but you don't need it right now. Keep it up!
such a boss! Well done!
Interesting thread. GL the rest of the year.
no worries, hope u enjoy it as much as i did.
Week 10 Update
Poker
meh, wasn't a great week. Struggling with finding time to put in long sessions. The week before i'd been playing mini 4-5 hour sessions but reduced ABI and lots of turbos was hurting my $ per hour while playing. So instead i'd just take the day off and work on something else or rest and then try to put in a full session the next day. So only put in 3 full 8-10 hour sessions last week.
Feel like my reviews getting lazy. My sports betting starting to take a bit more time, as so to be sure i dont make a mistake now that more money's on the line. So when i sit down to do my review i kinda rush it to get started so i can get the hours in before it gets late.
Cashes Over $1k
None!
Week
Month
Pace
$ Pace = $29178 : Me = $62549
Game Pace = 2918 : Me = 2968
Golf Betting
WGC Cadillac Championship
A Comfortable Wire to Wire win for Tiger for a small loss.
Did well in the "Winner without Woods" Market, +$2342 on a Stricker 2nd Place.
Win Market: -$224
Other Markets: +$5063
Puerto Rico Championship
Everyone who has PGA Tour status but not good enough to enter the WGC headed over to Puerto Rico. Going into the final round Scott Brown (-$2274) and Fabian Gomez (+$5000) we're ahead of a group of players by 4 Shots.
bleh, lost by 1.
Win Market:-$2274
Other Markets:+$401
Total
All Markets: +$3009
Premium Charge
So getting bit annoyed about shipping Betfair extra rake because they have flagged me as a winner. I have to pay 20% on all my winnings. EG This week on a Ł2.2k win i payed Ł122 commission before i got my winnings then 2 days later another Ł317 exits my account.
I've payed over Ł3.5k PC this year. Its essentially Betfairs way of discriminating and charging more from winners.
BetDaq
There is another betting exchange "BetDaq", which only charges 3% commission and no premium charge. The problem with betdaq is the liquidity is pretty ****ty and has few recreational betters making it more difficult to beat. They have recently been taken over by Ladbrokes which will hopefully start them trying to become more competitive with Betfair. So the last couple of days i've been setting up my betting to bet both Betfair and Betdaqs Golf markets. I've just got it working, so future updates will contain results from both exchanges. I'm interested to see how it will go.
Goals
March Goals
Poker
[] 1200 Total Games - (544)
[] 900 Scheduled Games - (358)
Fitness
[] Gym 8 Sessions with Trainer - (4) <-- Going great, much more efficient workouts and going regularly.
Smoking
[] No Smoking until after i have started playing - So far so Good
Working Hours
[] No More then 14 Hours Work in One Day. <- EASY!
Game Selection
[] Get my Game Selection Tool Finished. <- I've got a first version working for me but just requires a bit of vba to make it usable for others.
Upcoming Week
Couple of days off, then i'll be hitting the grind hard coming friday to get working towards my volume goals.
GLA!
Updates on golf profits for the year?
Week 11 Update
Got sick shortly after i posted the last update, diagnosed with a stomach infection so this weeks been a bit a washout.
Poker
Havn't been able to play apart from short session yesterday. Felt weird from the anti-biotics so only played 6.5 hours.
Cashes Over $1k
1st Pacific "Typhoon" $55 $1400
Week
Month
Pace
$ Pace = $32054 : Me = $64215
Game Pace = 3205 : Me = 3037
Golf Betting
Struggled to get my golf bets on due to being sick, but managed to start betting late on Wedesday.
European Tour
Avantha Masters
We were off to India for a pretty dull tournament with a pretty weak field but slightly better then that **** down in SA. Thomas Aiken (+$200) beat local Gaganjeet Bhullar (-$10000) by 3 shots.
Bhullar came from way back and never really threatend but lead to a pretty stressful sunday afternoon. He also had to wait like 10 min on the last tee when 2 up while the group ahead ****ed around... Nerve-racking.
Win Market: +$259
Other Markets: -$736
PGA Tour
Tampa Bay Championship
Crazy Tournament on a very hard course. After round 2 positions were great, then on round 3 the leaderboard litererly turned upside down due to the conditions with lots of big reds near the top. Reversed my positions on lots of players (market ev -$800).
There was 17 players within 2 shots of the lead going into the last round but Boo Weekley (T34rd at the off) shot -8 on the last day to post a good number. One by one then fell away trying to make it, but journeyman Kevin Streelman came up with the game plan to beat it and executed flawlessly.
Win Market: +$5351
Other Markets: +$1955
Running Very GOOOD! Also saved $640 in commission by winning some on Betdaq
Champions Tour
Toshiba Classic
Low Liquidity meant not too much matched besides a $200 back at Couples at 9.4
Going into last round it was HU between him a David Frost who was 1 shot ahead.
Was close until the back 9 until Couples hit his iron from the fairway into a tree and then Frost pulled away and won by 5.
Win Market: +$42
Total
All Markets: +$6761
Posting yearly results at end of the month but i'll bite as i'm running so good.
Need To Minus PC from that maybe -$4k.
Goals
March Goals
Poker
[] 1200 Total Games - (613)
[] 900 Scheduled Games - (405)
Fitness
[] Gym 8 Sessions with Trainer - (5)
Smoking
[] No Smoking until after i have started playing
Working Hours
[] No More then 14 Hours Work in One Day.
Game Selection
[] Get my Game Selection Tool Finished.
Week Ahead
Golf betting is going to be more swingy going ahead with slight more emphasis on backing (less commission on betdaq), more emphasis towards win market (due to betting on betdaq, and poor liquitidy in smaller markets for larger stakes).
This week will have particularly large swings due to Tiger trading at 4 for this weeks Arnold Palmer Invitational, lay'ed $2k already.
Poker starts up again Wednesday once i've finished my anti-biotics, intensive grind upcoming to catch up on volume goals.
GLA
Got sick shortly after i posted the last update, diagnosed with a stomach infection so this weeks been a bit a washout.
Poker
Havn't been able to play apart from short session yesterday. Felt weird from the anti-biotics so only played 6.5 hours.
Cashes Over $1k
1st Pacific "Typhoon" $55 $1400
Week
Month
Pace
$ Pace = $32054 : Me = $64215
Game Pace = 3205 : Me = 3037
Golf Betting
Struggled to get my golf bets on due to being sick, but managed to start betting late on Wedesday.
European Tour
Avantha Masters
We were off to India for a pretty dull tournament with a pretty weak field but slightly better then that **** down in SA. Thomas Aiken (+$200) beat local Gaganjeet Bhullar (-$10000) by 3 shots.
Bhullar came from way back and never really threatend but lead to a pretty stressful sunday afternoon. He also had to wait like 10 min on the last tee when 2 up while the group ahead ****ed around... Nerve-racking.
Win Market: +$259
Other Markets: -$736
PGA Tour
Tampa Bay Championship
Crazy Tournament on a very hard course. After round 2 positions were great, then on round 3 the leaderboard litererly turned upside down due to the conditions with lots of big reds near the top. Reversed my positions on lots of players (market ev -$800).
There was 17 players within 2 shots of the lead going into the last round but Boo Weekley (T34rd at the off) shot -8 on the last day to post a good number. One by one then fell away trying to make it, but journeyman Kevin Streelman came up with the game plan to beat it and executed flawlessly.
Win Market: +$5351
Other Markets: +$1955
Running Very GOOOD! Also saved $640 in commission by winning some on Betdaq
Champions Tour
Toshiba Classic
Low Liquidity meant not too much matched besides a $200 back at Couples at 9.4
Going into last round it was HU between him a David Frost who was 1 shot ahead.
Was close until the back 9 until Couples hit his iron from the fairway into a tree and then Frost pulled away and won by 5.
Win Market: +$42
Total
All Markets: +$6761
Posting yearly results at end of the month but i'll bite as i'm running so good.
Need To Minus PC from that maybe -$4k.
Goals
March Goals
Poker
[] 1200 Total Games - (613)
[] 900 Scheduled Games - (405)
Fitness
[] Gym 8 Sessions with Trainer - (5)
Smoking
[] No Smoking until after i have started playing
Working Hours
[] No More then 14 Hours Work in One Day.
Game Selection
[] Get my Game Selection Tool Finished.
Week Ahead
Golf betting is going to be more swingy going ahead with slight more emphasis on backing (less commission on betdaq), more emphasis towards win market (due to betting on betdaq, and poor liquitidy in smaller markets for larger stakes).
This week will have particularly large swings due to Tiger trading at 4 for this weeks Arnold Palmer Invitational, lay'ed $2k already.
Poker starts up again Wednesday once i've finished my anti-biotics, intensive grind upcoming to catch up on volume goals.
GLA
Nice thread and GL!
Jay,how much on average(I know it varies but average number would be nice) you're spending on studying per week?Sorry if it was asked already.
Jay,how much on average(I know it varies but average number would be nice) you're spending on studying per week?Sorry if it was asked already.
Hi Jay, first of all congrats on your results and great job describing all your golf bets.
I'm a huge golf fan and like you I try to make some money sports betting.
My question to you is if you recommend any books to learn betting strategies that can be applied to the golf markets? Also do you only use players stats to bet before the tournament starts or do you have some kind of system?
I'm a huge golf fan and like you I try to make some money sports betting.
My question to you is if you recommend any books to learn betting strategies that can be applied to the golf markets? Also do you only use players stats to bet before the tournament starts or do you have some kind of system?
Hi Jay, first of all congrats on your results and great job describing all your golf bets.
I'm a huge golf fan and like you I try to make some money sports betting.
My question to you is if you recommend any books to learn betting strategies that can be applied to the golf markets? Also do you only use players stats to bet before the tournament starts or do you have some kind of system?
I'm a huge golf fan and like you I try to make some money sports betting.
My question to you is if you recommend any books to learn betting strategies that can be applied to the golf markets? Also do you only use players stats to bet before the tournament starts or do you have some kind of system?
Hi Jamie, some good questions, have been mulling them over this week. I’m half expecting a sports betting troll to come in here, shout me down and make me look stupid. I’ll feel stupid if I don’t make much money this year at it!
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaimestaples
What kind of things are you looking for when betting? I would guess it would be recent data from past weeks, historical data, and knowing the course (what’s important: GIR/up-n-down/etc.) and finding out those stats.
Do you have an automated way to weight these things or do you plug stuff into a spread sheet and assign your own weights to formulas?
While I’d love to discuss handicapping golf tournaments as it’s a passion of mine, I’ve spent a lot of time and effort working on it that posting any of my own ideas or results from my analysis would eradicate my small ev, particularly when it comes to golf as there’s virtually no good info publically available on it.
Instead, I’ll link you to a video of Justin7 (author of Conquering Risk) approaching to modelling sports, which helped me get started.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Conquering-R.../dp/1450723004
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8MJY965aIE
If you’re interested in Sports Betting in general, read the 2+2 FAQ, all the 2+2 Wells and all posts by Ganchrow on forum.sbrforum.com
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaimestaples
Last question is what is the learning curve like?
Actually being +EV is not too tricky if you have someone who could show u what to do, but no one is going to do that since you would then be in direct competition for the money. Instead you will just have to work it out for yourself. I’d say making small money is not too hard but making good money is hard, and modelling is very hard. My model still needs a lot of work, and my techniques would not be able to beat major sports.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaimestaples
What kind of hourly can you expect in your first 3months?
If you break even after 3 months you’ve done well as it shows you have learnt out how identify some +EV bets. Sports doesn’t really work like poker as an hourly where u can grind X games anytime for a roi%, or bb/100. I guess you could work it out as a function of hours spent developing your “system”, time spent running your “system”, time spent placing bets, average stake and expected roi.
I’ve no idea of mine TBH, would be low of total time spent on it, but hopefully should be higher going forward.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaimestaples
Barriers of entry?
I’d Say Time and Money.
Money
You’d need absolute min 20k roll to make a living of it. Really to make a living and have your roll grow after withdrawals I think u need 100k. However you’re not going to want to be Sports Betting with a 100k roll when you have just started as your never 100% sure your +ev at the start. So I started with 20k hoping it would grow, but after withdrawals and dipping into savings I was forced to over bet and went busto. My plan now is to not withdraw from my sports roll.
Time
Gaining the necessary skills, gathering the data, doing the analysis, and then automating it as much as possible took me months (years!) working on it full time starting from scratch. Albeit I was lazy at times spent way too much time ****ing around and watching golf, sweating bets, but I don’t have that leak too much anymore.
If you wanted to get started, just work on it a few hours a week, and try to improve your methods every week. Start off with a small roll, place some bets keep records and see how you do forward testing. Treat it as a hobby and have some fun. You’d most likely be –ev at the start but hopefully as you gain experience and your methods improve you can work it out a bit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaimestaples
What kind of things are you looking for when betting? I would guess it would be recent data from past weeks, historical data, and knowing the course (what’s important: GIR/up-n-down/etc.) and finding out those stats.
Do you have an automated way to weight these things or do you plug stuff into a spread sheet and assign your own weights to formulas?
While I’d love to discuss handicapping golf tournaments as it’s a passion of mine, I’ve spent a lot of time and effort working on it that posting any of my own ideas or results from my analysis would eradicate my small ev, particularly when it comes to golf as there’s virtually no good info publically available on it.
Instead, I’ll link you to a video of Justin7 (author of Conquering Risk) approaching to modelling sports, which helped me get started.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Conquering-R.../dp/1450723004
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8MJY965aIE
If you’re interested in Sports Betting in general, read the 2+2 FAQ, all the 2+2 Wells and all posts by Ganchrow on forum.sbrforum.com
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaimestaples
Last question is what is the learning curve like?
Actually being +EV is not too tricky if you have someone who could show u what to do, but no one is going to do that since you would then be in direct competition for the money. Instead you will just have to work it out for yourself. I’d say making small money is not too hard but making good money is hard, and modelling is very hard. My model still needs a lot of work, and my techniques would not be able to beat major sports.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaimestaples
What kind of hourly can you expect in your first 3months?
If you break even after 3 months you’ve done well as it shows you have learnt out how identify some +EV bets. Sports doesn’t really work like poker as an hourly where u can grind X games anytime for a roi%, or bb/100. I guess you could work it out as a function of hours spent developing your “system”, time spent running your “system”, time spent placing bets, average stake and expected roi.
I’ve no idea of mine TBH, would be low of total time spent on it, but hopefully should be higher going forward.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaimestaples
Barriers of entry?
I’d Say Time and Money.
Money
You’d need absolute min 20k roll to make a living of it. Really to make a living and have your roll grow after withdrawals I think u need 100k. However you’re not going to want to be Sports Betting with a 100k roll when you have just started as your never 100% sure your +ev at the start. So I started with 20k hoping it would grow, but after withdrawals and dipping into savings I was forced to over bet and went busto. My plan now is to not withdraw from my sports roll.
Time
Gaining the necessary skills, gathering the data, doing the analysis, and then automating it as much as possible took me months (years!) working on it full time starting from scratch. Albeit I was lazy at times spent way too much time ****ing around and watching golf, sweating bets, but I don’t have that leak too much anymore.
If you wanted to get started, just work on it a few hours a week, and try to improve your methods every week. Start off with a small roll, place some bets keep records and see how you do forward testing. Treat it as a hobby and have some fun. You’d most likely be –ev at the start but hopefully as you gain experience and your methods improve you can work it out a bit.
how did you get on with tiger winning? did you manage to to get out or was it a heavy loss?
Hi Jay, first of all congrats on your results and great job describing all your golf bets.
I'm a huge golf fan and like you I try to make some money sports betting.
My question to you is if you recommend any books to learn betting strategies that can be applied to the golf markets? Also do you only use players stats to bet before the tournament starts or do you have some kind of system?
I'm a huge golf fan and like you I try to make some money sports betting.
My question to you is if you recommend any books to learn betting strategies that can be applied to the golf markets? Also do you only use players stats to bet before the tournament starts or do you have some kind of system?
http://www.amazon.com/Weighing-Odds-.../dp/0935926305 <-- Good if you are new to sports betting.
http://www.amazon.com/Fixed-Odds-Spo.../dp/1843440199 <- kinda old but got some ok info.
http://www.amazon.com/Sharp-Sports-B.../dp/0935926240 <-- classic sports betting bible, worth a read.
http://www.amazon.com/Conquering-Ris.../dp/1450723004 <-- newer book, good start as introduction to sports modeling, with some of his old models as examples.
http://www.amazon.com/Excel-Power-Pr.../dp/0470475358 <-- more advance excel reference book.
http://www.amazon.com/VBA-Dummies-Jo.../dp/0470046503 <-- given to me when starting out in vba, very basic.
http://www.amazon.com/Probability-St.../dp/0321500466 <- havn't used it much, very in depth, use for reference occasionally.
http://www.amazon.com/Probability-Ec.../dp/B008AU6RPY <-- teaches some modeling fundamentals and basic - intermediate excel modeling techniques, good for a tutorial.
pm me if u have a specific question on one of them.
Week 12 Update
Poker
Only got a couple of sessions in. TBH i'm finding i'm getting really bored by the end of the sessions. At that time all i want to do is finish playing / not really caring about whether or not i'm up or down. My ABI has also halved this month due to playing an off peak times and full tilt slashing their off peak schedule, which may have something to do with it.
So i've realised i need to take a break from grinding poker until i've got my hunger / desire back, hopefully wont be too long. Will talk more about this in my monthly review next week.
Cashes Over $1k
ZIP!
Week
Month
Pace
$ Pace = $35753 : Me = $62434
Game Pace = 3575 : Me = 3288
Golf Betting
European Tour
Maybank Malaysian Open
Stormy weather kinda ****ed up the tournament. My betting not setup to work while rounds are still in progress. After the event started i was only managed to bet for about an hour after R2 was completed, and then they switched it to a 54 hole tournament after R3 was rained off again on Saturday. So my positions pretty wide open and unfortunately comically named fatty Aphibarnrat won by a shot.
Win Market: -$2609
Other Markets: +$461
PGA Tour
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Was always playing with fire going against 7 time champ Tiger. The market moved with me and he closed at 4.3 (layed over $2.5k at 4 & 4.1). He stayed in contention throughout but i didn't like his price at any point in-between rounds so i stayed off him, actually topped up my lay after R2.
The bets were looking really good mid way through the 3rd round, tiger almost went OB and Justin Rose had a 4 shot lead. I fell asleep at that point, and a little shocked to wake up to see such a huge momentum swing with tiger being up by 2. Well he obv won, but at least Justin got it back to win me a bit back on the W/O Woods market.
Win Market: -$7650
Other Markets: +$1507
Champions Tour
Mississippi Gulf Resort Classic
Michael Allen fortuantly won me a bit back after getting crushed in the main win markets on the major tours.
Win Market: +$1630
Web.Com Tour
Chitimacha Louisiana Open
Nobody really wanted to bet on this besides me, but Edward Loar won it for a small win.
Win Market: +$263
Overall
So Crushed in the Major Win Markets, but smaller markets did ok.
All Markets: -$6403
There are 2 major changes i want to make to my betting.
1st. The first is a major upgrade to my model to account for a new factor, a leak that i think that i've noticed during this course of this season. This is a ton of work and its gonna require a lot more data, streamlining the efficiency of my model to be able to test it, as well as the programming of the new inputs. Probably will take me 4+ full days.
2nd. I need to reprogram "stuff" (dont want to be specific) so that i can bet during weather delays, i'm missing out on too much value but not being able to bet at this time. Its also a step towards being able to be in play. this is probably 1 - 2 days work.
I've got until 10 days to get this done until the main masters markets come out. I want to make sure that Masters week is going to go well as its by far the biggest week of the year for golf betting and my Win market for it is currently -$250 ev .
Goals
March Goals
Poker
[] 1200 Total Games - (864)
[] 900 Scheduled Games - (582)
Fitness
[] Gym 8 Sessions with Trainer - (6)
Smoking
[] No Smoking until after i have started playing - (2x failed )
Working Hours
[] No More then 14 Hours Work in One Day. (1x Failed, did a 16 hour day last week, was a lot of golf on + full poker session and review, body clocks now sleeping at 4am )
Game Selection
[] Get my Game Selection Tool Finished. (Not done)
Upcoming Week
Not much planned, just gonna relax until next week, recharge, then i'm going on holiday. After that i'll be back for monthly review and ready to start my programming.
GLA
Every time you talk about the software you use to do golf betting etc I find it fascinating, even though I know you can't go into too much detail. I'm curious whether you have a background in some kind of IT or coding experience that gave you the ability to make it? Or did you just decide that you needed it so you found out how to do it?
Anyhow man, keep crushing on both fronts. GL!
Anyhow man, keep crushing on both fronts. GL!
Every time you talk about the software you use to do golf betting etc I find it fascinating, even though I know you can't go into too much detail. I'm curious whether you have a background in some kind of IT or coding experience that gave you the ability to make it? Or did you just decide that you needed it so you found out how to do it?
Anyhow man, keep crushing on both fronts. GL!
Anyhow man, keep crushing on both fronts. GL!
When i started golf betting i became obsessed pretty quickly. At the time i was concerned about the state of the poker games, 2010 games compared to 2006 lol. I also thought it would be wise to diversify myself into another field in case the games ever dried up completely (black friday!). I realised to progress in sports betting i would need to expand my skills, so through sheer force of will i taught myself.
My coding still isn't that good, but you learn best by just doing it. If there is something you want to do, you just have to figure it out and you can get there eventually.
March Review
March Goals
Poker
[] 1200 Total Games - (864)
[] 900 Scheduled Games - (582)
Fitness
[] Gym 8 Sessions with Trainer (6) <-- Missed by 2 but i was sick for a week, and gym has been closed this week for holidays otherwise i would have been 9 times, and i'm going tomorrow. Really enjoying having a personal trainer, much more sociable and feel like i'm making good progress and working out much more efficiently. Having the set time a couple of time a week also provides some balance to my life, can't recommend it enough! Don't feel the need for fitness goals anymore.
Smoking
[] No Smoking until after i have started playing (-2) <-- IDK i'm so reliant on cig's, probably just going to have to quit altogether soon as it seems i'm incapable of cutting down.
Working Hours
[] No More then 14 Hours Work in One Day. (-1) Just one day of overworking completely ****ed my bodyclock up, slept at 7:30am last night. Dont know what i'm gonna do about it yet.
Game Selection
[] Get my Game Selection Tool Finished. <-- Not yet done as lower on the list of priorities at the moment while on a poker break.
So 0 of 5, pretty bad going. Poker wise its been a pretty bad month, low volume with average results. I'm burned out from "having" to play so much to make money for the last year or so, that now i've got a good size roll, i'm kinda bored with it. So i'm just taking a break from it at the moment, until i get my fire back. Talk more about this going forward in Aprils Goals below.
Money Wise good month due to run good in sports betting, +$28k or so.
Week 13 Update
Kinda been on semi - holiday, playing video games, putting on my golf bets and watching golf. Been a relaxing week.
Poker
Didn't Play.
Golf Betting
European Tour
Trophee Hassan II
Traditionally a boring event hosting a weaker field, however i enjoyed it more this year due to the hot headed German Marciel Siem who took a 3 shot lead after R1, +$1850 . After R2 he was still in front, Tour Tips tipster Jumbo amusing stated,
“Anyone contemplating backing halfway leader Marcel Siem at sub 6-4 needs a good talking to.”
He temperament when at the front of the leaderboard is pretty hilarious, he lives and dies by every shot and tilts over virtually everything. Fortunately for my bets he was only caught briefly on R4 and went on to a wire to wire victory.
Win Market: +$5898
Other Markets +$1153
PGA Tour
Huston Open
Rory Mcilroy headlined the field but didn't really figure at any point, only just making the cut. Going into R4 there were like 25 players within couple of shots from the lead. So a complete crapshoot, with my bets ranging between -$5k to + $8k on who would win. Was enjoying watching it with some big greens near the top until at 5am local...
"BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMM"
****ing horn goes with 5 holes to go, stopping the tournament for a weather delay, ruining the end of the tournament.
I was tired and bit drunk and didn't want to swing huge, knowing that i wouldn't be able to sleep, so i hedged most if it. Frustrating that i hadn't got my betting setup to calculate this yet, but confident i got some +E(G) hedges in. Largest bet being a back on Stenson (posted -15 1 shot off the lead).
This cut my swings to a couple of $K. Woke up to see DA Points (+$2500 1st round leader ) managed to hold on to the lead holing a mid range put on 18th. He was pretty happy about it:
Win Market: +$2074
Other Markets: +$3189
All Markets
Nice to bounce back from my tiger loses last week.
All Markets: +$12264
Got problems with a 3rd party software and the betdaq API so gotta suspend betting on betdaq until it gets fixed.
Year To Date Golf Betting
Months up, so yearly graph. Graphs now by date, not by number of markets.
Goals
April Goals
US Masters is gonna disrupt the month as its important that my golf betting is really good as its going to be a huge week money wise. I'm also going to watch every shot so that will take 5 days out of the month.
Poker
No volume goals this month. There's not much point if it keep missing them. I'm going to try to play when i want to and not force myself too much for a month.
[] Minimum Buyin $22+, $5r+. I've found that i'm really not enjoying playing $11 turbos, $15 mttsngs etc. Its like adding the max tables to max out my hourly but hurting my overall game and enjoyment at poker as i'm mass tabling constantly thoughtout my session, rather then playing less tables and concentrating more on them, and getting "into" the tournament.
[] Play APT $2500 Manila Main Event. Maybe $5k Highroller if i feel like it.
Video Games
[] No games during April. Been enjoying myself and been good to unwind for a bit but ultimately wasting a lot of time. Instead the only game i'll just play this month is poker, for FUN! (hopefully).
Sports Betting Upgrades
[] Get Both Finished (see week 12 update).
Game Selection Tool
[] Get it finished by end of month.
Note Caddy
[] Create Custom Definitions and Intergrate it in my HUD. I got note caddy and note caddy edge a while back, but TBH if you have a good hud with pop ups notecaddy edge its a bit useless when mass tabling mtts. However i know its a powerful tool and i have some ideas to work on it, just need to start playing around with it and work it out a bit.
Upcoming Week
Started working on my upgrades to my sports stuff yesterday, be at it all week prob.
GLA
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