10 8 limping, and then check call down, omg i want to play against you!!!

Hey Guys,

Sorry the thread has not been updated as frequently as you may have liked, but I promise that will change soon. I've been hard at work on my biggest contribution to 2+2 and the poker community which I should be releasing in the next 3-4 days.

Well, I've been moving sideways more or less the past week, limping along at a few hundred dollars a day. After crushing for a while, winning $200 - $500 per session feels really blah, but hey, that's poker.

Speaking of which, I decided to do another Tournament this Sunday, Lucky Chances has a $10k first place guaranteed tournament and this Sunday prize pool was big enough for an $11k first place



I was playing my best tournament poker and had an interesting run. But the most memorable thing about this tournament that will stick in my mind forever is that I met an Asian girl named Ester.

She is in her late 20s early 30s, 5'4, 100 lbs, cute as a button with long black hair that reaches down to the middle of her back. She is very pleasant and has the serenity type of demeanor that is popular with really nice sweet Asian girls. When you look at her, you can't help but be reminded of this




But Little did I know that I was facing this




If you are ever playing a tournament in the bay area with a cute Asian girl named Ester...

RUN

Don't Walk, Don't, trot, don't jog. Sprint as fast as you can and don't stop running until the casino is on the horizon behind you...

This girl was an absolute beast at the table. Easily the best tournament player in this area and if she seriously applied herself, she could definitely make it as a pro.

"Really dgi??? Come on man, anyone can run good, anyone can get some nice cards...."

No. I was at her table all day and we made the final table together and this girl was easily the best player at the table. She 3-bet, min raise, float, stole like an Enron rep, induced bluff raises, and called down light vs aggros, etc. She took down about 30 pots with only 3-4 showdowns. And best of all, she knew how to use her image and she just prison raped everyone all day long.

I was sure the tournament was going to come down to heads up between me and her, but unfortunately I took a horrible beat vs a huge rec-fish.

We were down to 13 players, I was at the chip average and in the big blind when my favorite thing in live donkaments happen. A rec fish makes a horrendous mistake. There was this noob rec fish that limp/called or limp/rr all his monsters, AA, KK, AK, etc. He never opened for a raise, just always going for the l/rr. But towards the end of the tournament, we had all had him figured out.

Blinds are $3k/$6k, $500 antes and I'm sitting on about $110k, UTC-rec fish has $90k.

We are 7 handed, rec fish limps UTG, CO, BTN, and SB call , I have 43o and I of course check my option. I can feel the blood flowing to my power source and my penis is starting to come to life anticipating a Shawshank Redemption Prison raping. I get a sick joy out of punishing fish for their fishiness in tournaments...

Flop(30k) 9 3 7
SB checks, I check, UTG bets $6k , CO calls, everyone else folds, and I obviously call hoping to bink that beautiful card on the turn.

Turn(48k) 4
I check, UTG bets $9k, CO folds, I call. The reason I called and didn't raise is because I know V has an overpair (QQ - AA) and I 100% know he will call my river shove no matter what. So, I can just make sure the river doesn't counterfeit me and then shove.

River(66k) T
I shove, V checks his cards, checks the board, checks his cards again, and then calls.

I show 43 two pair, V shows a set of Tens. FML

Man, that was just brutal. Down to $20k in chips but manage to battle back to about 9bb when I lost my all-in vs the person who probably won the tournament. One of those local grinders who thinks he's really good but is just terribad. He got his money in bad 6 times at the final table and won and unfortunately, I was the 6th suck out.

He raised UTG, folds to me, I look down at a beautiful AQo and shove, he snap calls me with A4o,

Board runs out: 7 6 5 9 3

Yuck yuck yuck. The only player at the table with any real skill was the Asian chick and unfortunately, that luckbox got her too when she shoved to steal his blinds. She had A7, he snap called with A3 and obvious A3 is the nuts and she is out in 4th place.

All in all, made $1500-ish (minus buy-in) so not too bad I guess.

I will be in Vegas in 3 days and my mission is to satty my way into the Main Event. Another possibility is that I may try to earn my way to the Main Event playing 10/25nl with my criteria being that if I can grind $20k with 10/25nl then I can take 1/2 of it and buy-in directly to the Main Event...

But I kinda cringe at that, $10k is too large a percentage of my bankroll for a tournament no matter how hot I'm running... I dunno, I'll have to think about it.

I'm sure you could snap sell pieces with no problem, I'm in for %1 lol

Don't get why you aren't just potting the turn or putting in a big chr and getting the money in then instead of waiting for the river when you have him covered and yeah you might get counterfeited but w/e.

Think this through mathematically.

If you 100% know that no matter what card hits on the river that you can shove and V will call, then it is more profitable to just wait till the river.

Against this villain, there are no scare cards, thus there is no reason to bet turn...

This is counter intuitive but think it through or even better do an EV calculation to prove it to yourself.

You can even lower the percentage. Lets say we know that V will call river 90% of the time no matter what river is.. should we shove turn or wait till river? HOw about 80%? How about 70%?

Of course, eff stacks should come into play as well but for the most part, if we are 90%+ confident V calls a river shove and we have more than a PSB remaining, and our hand is vulnerable to counterfeiting, then most optimal line is to just wait till river to shove and its not even close.

I'm too busy to do a model for this, but I know waiting till river in these spots is insanely more profitable than shoving turn...

the key is recognizing when you are in the midst of this situation, that is, a situation in which that no matter what, V is not folding river

do you think the stacks are large enough in this tournament to actually allow for some play or is everyone just down to 10 bb's very quickly and it just becomes all-in or fold? how was the structure? how long were levels?

Grooooose

DGI, congrats at the cash! Can't wait to hear more about The Cave of Caerbannog

The 43o hand. So gross... :Q I probably would have raised the turn, but w/e. You were 82% ahead of a range of TT+ so obviously nothing you do is ever wrong in this spot.

IMO, the Main Event is life changing money and shouldn't be just a bank roll and EV decision. If you have the skills, and clearly you do, and you have some flexibility with the roll, then given all the completely terrible players who get in, it seems like a fore-gone conclusion.

The more I think about it... I'd rather read 3 pages of HH about your 10/25NL adventure though. Epic comes to mind.

@dgi on the 43 hand what's your action if the river is an A, K, Q, 9, or 7?

I recommend you get some stakers! I get first dibs if you decide to go that route.

Thanks, I've made a decision on what I'm going to do about the ME, will update in next post

thanks, I'll see what I can do

Easy, 9 or 7 I easily fold river. any other card I shove river because odds are, he doesn't have a set. This fish would have made a crying call if an overcard hit so again, I don't have to fear a scare card because this was a typical rec-fish who believes he is monster and they don't fold. I think we on 2+2 forget how bad our villains can be and we get "stuck" in a certain mode of playing and that mode becomes our auto-pilot.

Imo, the key to crushing is to fight that auto-pilot. The real question we need to ask ourselves on turn is "Why should we shove turn? What are the reasons for shoving turn?"

Well, the reasons for "normally" shoving turn in this spot are:

#1 We are worried about a river scare card killing our action
#2 We are worried that if we flat turn and shove river villain will somehow deduce we are really strong and fold
#3 We are worried about denying proper odds to villain if villains is drawing
#4 We want to protect and/or maximize our equity advantage
#5 We recognize that the board is such that villain is more likely to call a turn shove than a river shove (i.e. villain can put us on a draw and call us down lighter than he usually would, but if the river is a brick and we shove V may put us on a bigger hand and fold or if river completes the draw V may fold thinking we hit the draw --- yes, i'm aware this logic conflicts but not in the mind of the typical thinking donk)

So, 90% - 95% of the time, the above applies and we should shove turn in these spots. HOwever, what happens if we A) have a high degree in confidence of V's exact holdings (JJ+) i.e. we know he IS NOT DRAWING, and B) we recognize that NO MATTER WHAT V IS NOT FOLDING RIVER!!!!! What does that do to the above reasons?

#1 becomes invalid
#2 becomes invalid
#3 becomes invalid
#4 becomes invalid
#5 becomes invalid

I'm very adamant about this point. This is one of those edges I feel that I have that most players do not, and that is recognizing those "rare" instances in which you can see an atypical optimal line that most winning players are blind to. And in this case, that means just flatting turn, hoping not to be counterfeited on river and shoving. Once you think it through, then you will understand my logic. Remember, I'm the prison rape guy. I'm all about shoving and I'm telling you that this isn't the situation you want to shove turn. Granted, obviously shoving turn is massive +EV, but the MOST +EV in this exact spot is flatting turn so you can shove brick rivers

Nice explanation dgi, thanks. Here's to hoping you prison rape the main event.

Countdown To Vegas.... 1 day



I have been tasked with a mission, and that mission is to play the Main Event. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. No pussyfooting around. No half measures. I will play the main event.

This will happen in one of two ways.

#1, I satty my way into it or...
#2, I grind $20k in five days, yes, $20k

So get ready Vegas, the Prison Raper is coming and I'm going to F you in the goat ass



So, tomorrow it all begins...

YES!

Good luck dgi! Play well and have fun most importantly.

lol... Old school Adam Sandler reference?

Good luck DGI. May the run-good be with you!

Just catching up on all the epicness of the last few weeks of this thread...subbing now so I don't miss every detail of dgi's run to the final table! GL and gogogo!

Sent from my SPH-L710 using 2+2 Forums

Where in Vegas do you plan on grinding? Maybe we'll play together. Glgl ofc.

I'll be grinding Aria, Bellagio, Wynn, and Venetian, just depends where I land.

But I don't think I want you at my table

I'm out for easy tourist and donk-wannabe-pro money and not looking to tangle with a sick maniac like yourself . Stay the F away from my tables!!!!

Unless you are drunk, high, and on steroid rage gorilla monkey tilt. Then by all means pull up a chair

About the 43 hand and the argument towards flatting turn. To be fair, you are claiming to already have an impeccable read on UTG having an overpair and you are assuming this because:

1) He limped UTG
2) He minbet the 9high flop into 4 other people.

While this is fine, how often do you find yourself in this kind of situation? I don't play too many tourneys but I'm guessing its a very small % of the time.

Basically, I think the edge to be gained from recognizing this is not that large. And then there is also the random spaz factor which would support shoving turn. This guy can't have AK and limped UTG and then bet out the flop? Or any combo of AK for that matter?

What about him having TT or JJ (which I think is much more likely than AA/KK given his betsizing), and then him folding on River A/K/Q for fear of his tournament life? I mean, if in fact during the hand, an A, K, or Q does come on river and you just shoved all in for his 69k into a 66K pot...I can't see how he doesn't at least some % time fold. Is he incapable of recognizing that you aren't shoving for most of your tourney life as a bluff?

In all seriousness, if you wrote a book I would buy it. Your posts are great, I've followed you over the years.

If you pull all your material out of 2+2 you might even have 2 books worth of material.

Given how much work/effort you have gone into with your posts, I think it would only be fair to reward you for your efforts.

Your thoughts are very insightful and really cover a broad spectrum (eg 3 strikes rule, cash game play, etc).

Ed Miller has done the same, not sure why you can't profit from all the hard work you have done.

I'd even be willing to proof/edit for free.

GL in the main event!

Subscribing. Gl in Vegas!

The bold is what I want to focus on. I feel one of the things I do better than other thinking players is identifying the terribad rec-fish and then just exploiting them with plays that on the surface seem either FPS or transparent and easily exploitable... But we got to remember, terribad rec-fish aren't Level II and will never exploit our play and against them, sometimes the most optimal play is something that is very exploitable by other thinking players...

Anyways, I didn't go into a super long story about how fishy this guy was, but based on his play that day, he's not folding on river. I thought he was bigger than TT but doesn't matter. Once he started betting, I knew he A) thought he had a monster hand and B) was not folding. Anyways, my last post on the matter, time to move on in this thread

I appreciate the kind words, but truth is, there are a million poker books out there and unless I win something sick like a WPT or WSOP event, I would have a hard time selling a book. Not to mention that books don't make as much money as people think. When you write a book, you are fortunate if that book nets you $10k+ per year in royalties.

But for what it's worth, I do have something pretty sick that I will be releasing onto the poker community within the next week. I meant to release it before I got to Vegas, but that didn't happen. What is it??? Well, you will have to tune in to see. I should have it finished in the next week...