I was a math noob too and read Qtip's book poker math that matters
learning the math side of poker is the only way to become good imo so read it!

In regards to hand 4 you definitely didn't have odds vs their ranges, and there are some mistakes you made in regards to calculating pot odds and whatnot.

You're calling 165 to win 358 (not 523), so you need slightly less than 2-1, so probably 31% equity or so. It's really, really hard to come up with a realistic scenario where you have more than 27% equity, and I think if we're being 100% real about their ranges, we have like 22% equity here generally.

In regards to the other hands.

Hand 1)meh. River is good, you bet way too small on the flop/turn though, unless he raises at some point with your bet sizing you're never getting his full stack. I'd go 19/49/jam. Turn should be a jam too, imo, because he has QK so much and if he has better we're losing our stack regardless + he's never folding and rarely if ever bluffing. I don't play much full ring so I can't say whether he really calls QK pre, but if he doesn't then the turn is probably a fold considering how passive he is. Not entirely sure on that though.

Hand 2) Fold turn. I think it's a really easy fold at the very least, on the river, even at a 6m table. People don't overbet jam with air enough, and I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see AA. I think if you look back over times someone overbet jammed river with 200bbs, you'd find that it was the nuts almost always if not always.

Hand 3)Fold turn. AF .7 and a giant gap between vpip and PFR = passive fish. I think the turn is meh, can go either way. River has to be a fold though. Just because he's a fish doesn't mean he's always got the worst hand.

Hnad 5)You absolutely have to bet the turn. It's a bet/fold. We can't expect them to jam many single heart hands, and we don't want to allow them to see a free card when they often have 24% equity or so to win the hand. River is probably a fold, I don't think I make it that often (ever) though.

I called here pre because we were so deep and I can probably stack one of those value hands because this type of player becomes emotionally attached to those hands in general.
So you think I should call because AK or AA is a big enough % of his river betting range and he never has KQ based on his 3bet stat?

cool

Good point about 3betbluf frequency from fish

ok, yeah, this was a tricky one

I've seen fish bluff in this place with minbet before and then flash the bluff, makes it hard for me to fold this hand

sure, what's your skype, I'll add you?

LOL, you caught me. Yeah, this is a standard strat I use when IP and 3betting, a little over a minbet raise size, you have position while keeping SPR as big as possible which is advantageous and I feel like IP I can outplay most opponents no matter what hand I have. In a squeeze situation, I will usually make it a little bigger though. I hope you're not a frequent opponent of mine, giving away info here

Thanks for the advice on the hands!

I saw that about MartL, funny stuff!

Expecting him to have some definite air here, or turning something into a bluff, even on the river, but probably still should have folded

I think given how bad this guy was, and the position I had on him, folding here to come back and stack him later was a better move


I think I had different odds than that, will address in Maleficcus' post

Yeah, this guy was crazy, partially influenced my call for sure, I've had crazy players like this bluff me on the river before when I under rep my hand

Thanks for your advice!

Ok, I think I calculated this correctly but I want to make sure, I used to not know the correct way to do pot odds, the whole 3 to 1 being 25% pot odds used to throw me, I used to think it was 33%, but I think/thought I have a good handle on it now, want to verify. This is what I was thinking.

The pot was actually 418, I had 165.70 to call, which is .396, and that is something like 2.5/1? My A could be an out, but probably not, I have about 30% chance of hitting straight plus I have the backdoor nut flush draw which adds some equity, but not sure how much.

I must confess I didn't think too hard about their ranges here, my first mistake, but for some reason I thought at least one of them had a draw, most likely flush draw (the super laggy guy btn) and the other guy some sort of made hand, a set, or two pair, or overpair.

Where am I going wrong on my calculations here?

I doubt he'd 3bet with KQ here unless he thinks my image is really bad here, KQ didn't cross my mind until the last K came down. Before that, I was thinkin QQ, 88, KK, AA which made the turn really bad for my hand cuz it would be weird for him to check raise me with AK on the turn, so then I was thinking he just hit his set if he didn't already have it on the turn with KK.

Agreed, I was definitely behind (I've pulled that kind of bluff myself before but most people just don't)

totally agree

cool, go with my read and get value on the turn with a bet from J or some sort of pocket pair and then fold to a raise, makes sense.

Thanks for all of the advice RE these hands!

The way I calculated it was pot = 523 on the river, you put in 165. 523 - 165 = 358. Either the hand history converter typed it wrong, or it should be 165 for 358. If it was/is 418 due to a hand converter mistake, you would need like 27% chance, or something like that(guesswork).

My best guess from seeing how you think about your outs, is that you aren't too intimate with pokerstove. I really think you should use it/mess around with it, a lot. I use it every single day, and have for the entire duration of my "career". http://www.pokerstove.com/

You have 8 potential outs to a straight, 4 of which split the pot with your opponents a lot of the time. If they have a set, they can redraw, as can 2p. You do have backdoor hearts, that adds like 1-2% equity, but if you mess around with pokerstove vs standard ranges, you'll find it to be a pretty bad situation.

Also, with button overpotting the flop on a drawy board, that just screams the nuts. It doesn't mean he has KQ very often, but it does lean towards a set or two pair that doesn't want to see a straightening or flushing turn card. The fact that he overpotted and jammed when you're 200bbs deep means he's more often than not got a value hand. He could check the flop with a draw, and he would very, very likely bet the flop smaller with a draw if he had one. Also, you have the Ah, with that in your hand his draw combinations go way, way down. If you didn't have the Ah, it would still be a fold even with all his draw combos.

Think of it like this. You have a straight draw on a board that has a flush draw present. This means instead of 8 outs, you have 6. If you have 8 outs, you're way behind already and they can redraw to the nuts. Either way, just put their range in pokerstove, and be honest. You'll see you don't have much equity in this spot.


That makes sense. I still think flop should be bigger and turn... I don't know. It's a **** card for your range, but I'd just bet bigger and shove river, folding the turn if he raises. Not really sure though, flop should be bigger, turn is debatable.

Hey thanks for the link. Checked it out and it got some good reveiws. Im struggling to get it in book form in the UK so may have to get it on ebook. Cheers.
On folding Quads, if your beat, your beat.

I'm pretty sure it was more than 2 to 1 because I remember thinking I have better than 2 to 1 after looking at the amount in the pot above the cards on the table: $16 in pot from flop + BTN bets $25.00, Hero calls $25, CO raises to $125.70, BTN raises to $226.40 = 418 and Hero calls $165.70 all in, dunno why the hand convertor says only 523 after that, weird

I have used stove some, but I'm no expert. I definitely think I kinda know about this stuff but don't have a good lock on it, need to sit down and really master it. When I clicked on the replayer, HEM told me my actual equity was 30% but that doesn't take into account their full ranges, just what they actually had. On top of that, I think in the thick of the battle, I didn't really take an honest evaluation of their ranges anyways so that didn't help my decision making either.

Agree with all of this, thank you very much for your very thorough explanation!



I bet smaller on flop to coax him into a call if he had a weak hand, but yeah, I agree, with pretty much everything but AK, in an original range of AA, KK, QQ, AK, he calls a pot sized bet anyways.

Yeah, turn card just sucked really bad. I almost wish I had called just so I would know what he had now

thanks again for all of your help!

Ah, I see where the mistake is now. You're counting money you can't win. You only have $195, BTN puts in $226. So that's where the extra money is coming from.

so it's Current pot = 16 + 25 +25 + 125 + 165 + 165 = 521 (really 523 because of cents)

Here are some stove examples.

Board: Jh Th 9c

Hand 0: 29.642% 29.24% 00.41% 264 3.67 { AhQs }
Hand 1: 60.428% 60.02% 00.41% 542 3.67 { 9d9h }
Hand 2: 09.930% 09.52% 00.41% 86 3.67 { Ts9s }

Close, but a miss.

Range wise, and I didn't spend much time (1 minute) on this, just putting in some guesswork. It's really hard for either opponent not to be ahead of you here, because you have the Ax, so the only real flush draws they can have is KQhh, 87hh 98hh, 67hh, maybe. I didn't put them in the range, but they don't really change our equity.

Board: Jh Th 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.865% 22.30% 02.56% 133523 15339.50 { AhQs }
Hand 1: 39.203% 37.01% 02.20% 221561 13143.50 { TT+, 9d9h, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s }
Hand 2: 35.932% 33.85% 02.08% 202672 12450.00 { 99+, QJs, JTs, Ts9s, 8h6h }

Gotcha, makes sense. I didn't think about the fact that the "pot size" marker on the table might display an amount that I don't have full access to because I'm not covering the btn. Makes sense now, I'll have to pay more attention to that going forward, especially with these deep games.

On top of that, like you said, I didn't fully figure out all of the ranges in my head so my calc was off anyways. Lesson learned here, or partially learned, I need to really lock this stuff down so it's 2nd nature for me instead of kinda concrete but a little fuzzy like it is right now.

I listened to most of the DC video, "The Thin Redline" today during lunch, thought I'd check it out after listening to Bart Hanson's deuce plays a week or so ago with Grindcore, some really eye opening stuff in there, I just hope I don't spew too much after learning this stuff. Searching for an appropriate analogy to an aggro (sometimes over-aggro) player who is given tools that encourage even more aggro/tricky play? A ferrari given as a present to a habitual speeder who used to drive a jeep, I dunno

Lots of good tactics though in that video at least for higher stakes and against good players (though some of it helps exploit super aggro fish too), looking forward to trying to work them into my game going forward.

my skype is porkeatsmatt
grindcore's first video of thin red line is the nuts!
about the math problem: get if fixed because it makes things much much easier (means less tilt for me too)
btw definitly going to try out the small 3bet IP tactic

+150 last night in a short session, didn't play that well overall but managed to book a winning session due to a big suckout. I'll take it I guess...

Went to a late valentines dinner with my wife, we couldn't get reservations on Valentines day at her fav sushi restaurant, Uchiko, here in Austin so we went a day later. We did the chef's tasting "Omakasa" (sp) and it was pretty good. The food is amazing there, especially if you like Sushi, I'm not nearly as adventurous re food as she is, but even I liked and ate almost everything they brought us.

I need to alter my HUD a bit to take better advantage of the info from the "Thin redline" video. I've been meaning to clean up my HUD anyways because there's some stuff I don't need or use on there, so this will be good for my game overall. Looking forward to putting in a good long session soon at the new tables. Also considering moving up to NL100 HU I think I have a lock on NL50 HU and my bankroll is more than big enough to play NL100 HU where I also think I can win so I will probably make the move on that soon, maybe even my next session.

There are about fifteen 20-50bb tables still alive right now at NL100, but there's supposed to be a server restart today sometime which should obliterate those tables completely. At NL100, the favorite game after these changes is far and away 40+, at least 2 to 1 vs cap games so that is awesome! I'm expecting that gap to get even bigger as the worse SS'ers at CAP begin to lose and hopefully move over to 40+, they might move down a couple of levels in stake, but that's ok. I'm definitely seeing more 40 buyin players now, but I don't really have any issue playing these guys, they have no clear advantage like they did at 20bb and I feel like I will have no problem outplaying them, especially if their stack bumps up a bit to say 50bb due to a couple of small wins. Who knows, maybe they'll actually try to learn to play poker which I think is awesome for the game in general.

That's it for now, thanks again to everyone that commented advice on the hands I posted!

Did you not like the following videos in the grindcore thin red line series as much?

Yeah, I've been using the small 3bet IP tactic for months now and I think it works great. A lot of regs don't know what to think of it either, some of them think I'm keeping it small, hoping for a call because of AA or KK and they fold and some of them think I'm just stealing and 4bet or call light which is awesome too when I DO have a value hand like AA or KK. I see no reason not to do it so far, especially when the stacks are deep. Anyone else use this tactic?

+525 Wed Night playing NL100 HU
-110 Last night playing NL100 FR and SH

I ran really badly last night both in coolers and all in EV, said I should have been up about $300 for the session, courtesy mostly of the hands I've posted below.

There are a lot more 40bb stacks playing now, especially at FR so I need to figure out some adjustments to these guys. The plus side is that most of them seem to play really poorly post flop. I had one of these guys CALL a 3bet, OOP and 30bb deep with 76o. I've been calling them down a little lighter trying to figure out how they're playing, I think I'm starting to get a feel for them and should be no problem adjusting, just need to be more aware of where they are sitting on the table, I've begun color coding them so that I know how many of them are on a table without even opening it.

Incorporating some of the Thin Redline tactics to my game and it's been good so far, I need to go back over my notes and start using it all along with altering my HUD which I haven't done yet either. There's so much gold in that video, it's awesome!

Here are two of the "fun" hands from last night, I avoided tilt both times though, the only thing that can tilt me is when I'm playing poorly, I don't think I made any mistake in these hands though so all good. Actually, sent myself the wrong hand for the 2nd one, suffice to say, the other one, I had JJ and the flop was 66J and of course he had 66 so, yeah, at least he wasn't full stacked

This one hurt because we were so deep, I had been f'ing with him a lot so he decided to take a stand here I guess.
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

UTG ($100)
Button ($398.10)
Hero (SB) ($291.70)
BB ($256.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
3 folds, Hero bets $2.50, BB raises $11, Hero raises $37, BB raises $244.30, Hero calls $216.30

Flop: ($512.60) J, 10, 7 (2 players)

Turn: ($512.60) 3 (2 players)

River: ($512.60) 5 (2 players)

Total pot: $512.60

Results:
Hero had A, A (one pair, Aces).
BB had J, J (three of a kind, Jacks).
Outcome: BB won $511.60

omg that hand :|

the other videos didnt help that much because I wasnt on his level and didnt understand FE + pot odds enough when I watched them. Also videos of people just playing have never helped me in the past. Maybe if I rewatch them. His last video where he discussed some hands (and not doing a session) is again great do!

Im still working on succesfully 3betting a lot OTB (now its about 7 percent which is aggro enough) and adapting to the regs who play back. If I get that straight maybe I can try the small 3bet strategy

LOL
this is just me forgetting about QK in my calculations , Im not going to do the math again but I think its pretty close. Its very dependant on how he plays AA and theres no way you can know. I think its important that you dont break your head over these kind of situations because they wont make (or lose) you a lot of money in the long run

I agree completely with you on this one, just have to let it go. It's close, so close not worth worrying about anymore, I'm glad that we had the discussion about it on this thread though, makes me feel better about it that there's no real consensus with all players.

Cheers!

Interested to see how this goes for you when you try it out. I'm the only one I know who does it so far, though I'm sure other people use it too.

op i love u, wish i was good asu

I think you may be overestimating my abilities, I've struggled quite a bit through the years playing this game, had so many times I thought I was on a roll but some part of my game winds up sinking the ship. Thanks for the compliment though, my fingers are crossed during my current run good!

+1 or 2 buyins over the weekend playing NL100, HU, SH, and FR, BUT... Experimenting a lot with my play and HUD setup. Not very happy with the way I'm playing, I'm getting played back at a LOT by other reg's who I'm probably trying too many moves on so they're rightly pushing back, that, or I ran into the top of everyone's ranges which I think is unlikely. Also, I'm getting a little over confident in my game and calling down and shoving too light as well.

Need to adjust to my new game and get things back into a consistent clip where I was about a week ago.

I think my BR is somewhere around 8500 right now and I have about 40k VPP's so I'll be buying a $650 bonus soon. Also, getting close to locking down Platinum so I may go back to FT for the rest of the month as soon as I clinch that.

There seem to be more and more 40bb stacks getting into the game at PS, some are SS'ers, and some are fish who just buy in short. I don't think I'm losing anything from the SS'ers and I should be winning quite a bit from the short fish because they typically double up at some point and then make a mistake for their whole stack, still, was easier not having to adjust to these guys, however, I'm glad the games are looser now too so overall a definite win with the changes.

Amazingly there are still a few 20-50bb game sitting around so that's crazy, I guess those will be gone eventually, seems like 1 or 2 drop a day. Still think the games will continue to gel for the next month or so before settling on some sort of equilibrium for the rest of the year. I guess that's about all to report for now...

jealous@ur br

Thank you! I've been here before, just gotta not spew it all away like I did the last time If you look at my PTR, I dropped off a cliff the last time I had about $8500 in late Oct 2010. Trying to not make the same error twice.

I noticed I made an error in the last post, I'm about at 40k FPP's, not VPP's, so far, was referring to being able to buy the $650 bonus soon for 50k FPP's soon as a plat member. My VPP for the year is probably about 17k...