Another pretty brutal Sunday. First 2 tourneys I final tabled and cashed, went AKo<AKs all in pre while 2/5 vs the chip leader. Had way more than 3rd. Then with 4 left and top 3 stacks even at 50BBs with 4th at 5BBs, went 88<KJ all in on KJ8 to bust. Not a fun start. Stone bubbled the Party 10K after jamming 9BBs UTG (with probably 6 other players under 15BBs and 16 total player left) with QQ and knew I was dead when Jermz flatted. I've never beaten him in a hand on a Sunday. He had KK and that was that. Also ran 10K to 30K very quickly before busting 3 from money in Stars 10K. Raised JJ, bet 662, jammed T turn, guy called with A9cc. He turned a flush draw after a strange peel on flop then called the pot size jam, slams the 3c on the river to end that one.

I did run very good in the WSOP $200 $50K and had the chip lead with 50 left. Kept pushing to chip up and then made a terrible fold. I did realize that something I've been doing WAY too much of lately is hero folding. I'm convincing myself people have to have it, because it only makes sense to have it in this spot! But then they have worse value or a totally random bluff and I'm costing myself tons of chips by seeing monsters under the bed. I raised JJ in CO, SB and BB flat, flop J52dd SB c/c's my bet. Turn Ad he donks 1/2 pot I call, river brick he bets half pot which is now a ton of chips. I just don't ever see this being a bluff. This is a reg I'm familiar with who once ripped me a new one in chat when I 4b jammed AT vs him, he had AQ, and I got there. Stuff like "What do you think I have, A9?" as if him 3b bluffing was the craziest idea ever. So him just deciding to go crazy after the ace of diamonds, a hand that often makes me at least top pair, seemed impossible. I tanked forever, chatted a bit to try to get something, and eventually folded, telling him to show the bluff if he was bluffing. He showed 22 and I literally walked into my room and laid face down on my bed and thought about life lol. Maybe the fold isn't THAT crazy because if my "he's never bluffing" assessment was correct then I really only beat 55 and 22 and maybe some AJ A5s A2s stuff, and I lose to flushes (but that's it). In any case, as soon as I got back to my computer I just started writing notes on post it notes. DON'T HERO FOLD. Stuff like that lol. This downswing has me seeing monsters under the bed and it's costing me money. I eventually finished 11th for $650 with 13.5K up top. The guy who had the 22 won the tournament. I lost $1300 on the day.

On the bright side, on my drive home from Maine yesterday I went to Twitter to sell 50% of 4 bullets to the Parx $550 at ~1.27 ($2800 total price on the package). It sold out in literally 5 minutes. From a poker perspective the last month has been very strange. It's been my worst month money-wise and probably my best month exposure-wise. Selling action and cashing the Borg $2700 is such a great thing to add to the resume to show I can play and be comfortable at those higher stakes. I was used as an interview for a news article on internet poker. My friends and family have seen some stuff on Facebook and Twitter and I've gotten a lot of praise on the success I'm having. Yet I'm losing more than I ever have!!! Pretty funny and actually a good representation of how poker works; it might look like someone is doing great or poorly but you never really know exactly how they are doing financially. A guy who has lost his last 10 big buy in MTTs might be crushing cash games. A guy who just won a huge tourney might have had 10% of himself and owed a bunch to others, or been in huge markup. No way to really know someone's situation.

In any case, I think I was at least thinking about the right things last night. I did a better job at focusing on decisions rather than results. I think I also realized 12 tabling is too many for me. I can play 12, and I do think about my decisions, but I find my timebanks running down often, occasionally timing out, and I think there are spots I should be exploiting people more and I auto pilot since I'm running out of time. I think I'll play 8 games going forward, maybe throwing in more early in sessions when decisions aren't always as complex.

I think I want to start doing way more studying as well. I need to come up with a more concrete plan on how to do this. I want a more consistent schedule but again, playing live poker sort of takes that away from me. But having a consistent plan for when I am home seems like it's the best way to go. I want to watch 2 RIO videos per day. Add that in with an occasional tourney review and I think I'd be in good shape to keep my game where it needs to be. We'll have to see in the future.

Last note, this thread turned a year old about a week ago. When I started the thread I was in the middle of my biggest downswing ever. At the time. Well, looks like we're back to that point! Time to get it going the right way again tonight.

Yeahhhhhh all you gotta do is insult jasbral and he gives up a few %

Haha yeah man that's not the first time he dropped the "all" bomb on Twitter...I'm not complaining!

Finally Some Good News!

Nothing major but something good for the confidence. Today started as most days have with some nasty hands leading to me feeling frustrated. I did try 8 tabling and I noticed I felt less frustrated than when I'm 12 tabling. I think the 12 tabling might be bad for me simply because I have a tough time with my emotions when everything is flying around, not so much because I can't focus on 12 or anything like that. Also when you're running bad you're just gonna see more bad beats with more tables for obvious reasons. In the 30r 10K I 3b ATo vs active opener, fish on button cold calls, flop comes A54, and I decide to c/min because I've seen this villain stab randomly at flops with his whole range. He min 3b's lollllllll I know I'm dead but I don't have much back and bust to 44. I went from 10K to 30K quickly in WSOP 100 before chipping back down to 15K at 1200BB. UTG, who's been limping everything, limps, I shove TT OTB and he has JJ. Pretty obnoxious given he was limping 40%. In the Party 109 CO, who I have a very tough time ever winning a hand against, shoves 10BBs, I reshove 25BBs with 66 OTB, SB covers and wakes up with JJ to win the side pot but lose the main to CO's KQ. KQ guy wins a flip vs me at exact same time on another table, and I get into another flip with him on a 3rd table (3 different sites too!) and river the winner. I mighta flipped a bit if I lost that one. This is the same guy who flatted my 9BB QQ shove on stone bubble of Party 10K yesterday and I knew I was dead before seeing hand (he did end up having KK and I did end up bubbling).

Anyway, I mincash the Stars 100 after QQ<AA, then run very good in a 10r super turbo to finish 2nd for $300. That leaves me with just the new $100 "second chance" on Stars which I am winning every hand in. My IRL friend, who has been doing quite well online, decides to punt to me when EP opens, he flats button, I squeeze SB big with AK, and he back jams like 30K at 800BB with T9s. I hold and eventually find myself with 135K from a 10K SS at 400/800 with 2nd at 35K. Funnily enough, I end up heads with the guy I feel like I can't win hands against. I have a big lead but he takes the lead back when he opens, I defend J9 then c/c 3 streets on 95333. He has 55.

We are quite deep and end up playing heads up for probably 45 minutes, with levels 10 minutes each and levels like 3500/7000 being included. I am at a slight disadvantage for most of the match but still around 40BBs the whole way. Eventually I get 44 in vs AQ heads up and board runs Q5Q 4 2!!! I was pretty excited. This gave me the lead and eventually I limp 87o OTB against his 15BB stack, he checks then check shoves 115K over 7K on 754. I beat his 73 to win the MTT. Heads up he was consistently changing his opening sizes, 3b sizes, c-bet sizes; I was just dying to see some of these hands to figure out what the different sizes meant since it just seems like it could be such a huge tell. Eventually I did see him open 43o pre, c-bet 2/3 pot on A73 then check it down to lose to my 55. Just so wild to me that this guy winning everything in NJ is c-betting 2/3 pot with bottom pair no kicker. I honestly flopped very poorly when I peeled his opens, to the point that most c-bets were getting through. I was still peeling A high and backdoor draws sometimes but I probably flopped a pair 15-20% of hands instead of the standard 33% which made it hard for me to continue as often as I needed to given how often he was c-betting. But yeah getting that win was just a big confidence boost, even if it wasn't a huge score.

Made over $1200 today though and am back on the plus side for the month. I'm just dying to really bink something and get that feeling of being a pro back again. When I'm winning, I feel justified in my decision to become a professional and feel so amazing about being able to stay home during the day and do what I want and work my own schedule and all that. When I'm losing I just feel like a degenerate who is wasting his time and preventing himself from getting the valuable work experience he might need in the future. I think this is what tears me up the most when I'm downswinging; that feeling that I'm not good enough and I've made a huge mistake in going pro. Ever since, maybe last August's downswing, I've always felt confident I will get out of whatever downswing I'm in, but I always do get the feeling that maybe I made a mistake in doing this as a profession and I HATE that feeling.

I wanted to post pic of lobby and chip graph but it seems imgur pics are not displaying on here anymore. Anybody have a way I can share images again?

Ha got it!

Dan,

In response to the "worst poker day of your life," trust me I know the feeling. I have been crushing the live scene pretty hard the last three months and was making significant progress in regards to my overall earnings. Then... BOOM.

onday 8/1. Then I ran a 4-6 on a 3-5-7-8-A board into 6-9. A few hands later, my K high flush was crushed by A high. A few hands later I hold 68c. Flop 898 turn x river 6. After betting, I raise girl all in and she instacalls holding 89. My final hand of the night I flop a set of 5's... only to ultimately lose to a set of K's.

I go back Tuesday and after starting the day hot, my stack began to shrink slowly but surely. In my last hand, I have $166 in front of me, my opponent $160. I'm playing $1/$2. Anyway, fast track here, I limp AK off. Button raises $12, I flat call. Board comes AdKs5h. I check, villian bets $25, I call. Turn 8h. I check, villian bets $35, I deliberate and go all in with what I have left. He calls w/ AJ h. Wouldn't you know it, a heart falls on the river... donezo again.

The next day I go back. Within 20 min of being at the casino I pickup two black 6's. Flop is Td6h9c. It goes check, bet $20, (to me) raise $60, fold, raise all in +/- 180. I call. Board runs out QcQs. I turn over my 6's full and he turns over 10's full as he also flopped trips. After a rebuy I lost most of my stack in a semi-bluff and to end my day I lost with KK to a J2 after the board was dealt.

Point of my story is I felt the EXACT same way after reading your post and I think to some degree it's just natural. Doubting your abilities is no way to continue your success and we (as poker players) must realize it is apart of the game and the bad-luck losses can't last forever.

That last paragraph is the most important part. I think doubting your abilities sometimes can actually be beneficial. If you feel you are the best player all the time then you probably aren't ever going to improve. But too much doubt can lead to a lack of confidence which leads to bad decisions. I definitely WANT to think that me losing is just a result of "bad-luck losses" but sometimes I wonder if I just am not up to par anymore. I've had less of those thoughts as I've moved on with my career and realized that every time I downswing I come out of it stronger, but there always is that non-zero chance that you've just been a fish on a heater your whole life! Thanks for sharing your story, I think it's typical of what most people have gone through. The quote I always think of during these downswings now (and I'm paraphrasing) is, "When you are a professional poker player, you will hit a downswing that you've never experienced before and seems impossible. And some time after you've gotten out of that one, it'll happen again." This is simply another downswing I've never experienced before, but I'm gaining experience in hitting downswings that I've never experienced before, if that makes any sense, so while it's still painful, I'm understanding it a little better each time which is making it a little bit easier to get through.

I think this is the most underrated part of a being a pro. I think it's actually kind of difficult to come up with a good study routine where you're effectively learning. But as the games get tougher, if we're not getting better our bottom lines are slowly but surely decreasing.


I think said player is solid but he's definitely been on the right side of variance for the last year or so. He definitely makes some mistakes with his sizings on flops and he does some really funky sizings with his 3 bets (abnormally large), glad you shipped it on him.


I agree, always find it funny how one day you feel like you can't lose and you're just going to win every pot and how quickly it can turn into "How can I find a way to lose this one?".


Anyway, good luck on getting out of this rut and starting an upswing, I'll see you at Parx

Yeah man that "I can't lose!" compared to the "no way I win this hand" feelings are pretty funny to think about. You'd think it'd be easier to overpower them and just realize at all times that both of those feelings exist, but when you're going through one it's hard to think about the other.

Just played 100 hands of $200NL ZOOM on Pokerstars NJ! Very cool that it ran for a little bit (by the end there were 12 entries but only like 5 players which is when I quit). Before giving results I'd like some thoughts on this hand I played, primarily about the river. I'd like to throw this hand at bbissick but unfortunately he is the villain in this hand so I think he might be a bit biased So as I was saying, villain is a total dolt and I don't know how he's possibly rolled to play 25NL let alone 200NL

For those who don't know bbissick, check out his PG&C thread, good stuff from a fellow NJ grinder (primarily cash games online but dabbles in MTTs as well). He definitely knows I am primarily an MTT player who just hops in cash once a while. Onto the hand!

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Poker Stars)
$200.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, August 09, 06:05:02 ET 2016
Table Webster (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $622.08 USD ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 16, 3B: 8, AF: 1.5, Hands: 377
Seat 2: Hero ( $333.96 USD ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 2.1, Hands: 5600
Seat 3: Player3 ( $188.90 USD ) - VPIP: 32, PFR: 29, 3B: 25, AF: 2.5, Hands: 34
Seat 4: Player4 ( $580.02 USD ) - VPIP: 33, PFR: 24, 3B: 20, AF: 1.1, Hands: 94
Hero posts small blind [$1.00 USD].
Player3 posts big blind [$2.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ac Ad ]
Player4 folds
Player1 raises [$5.00 USD]
Hero raises [$15.00 USD]
Player3 folds
Player1 calls [$11.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, 7s, Jh ]
Hero bets [$23.00 USD]
Player1 calls [$23.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]
Hero bets [$55.00 USD]
Player1 calls [$55.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Ah ]
Hero ???

I have 3b/4b him a few times and I think the only ones that have got to showdown I often just had it. This was a strange river! Hearts and KT got there, I beat literally every other hand. I think whether or not to bet comes down to how many combos of flushes I can really have and how many he can really have. The ace, queen, and jack on board are all hearts which is a huge consideration in my opinion. For me to have a flush I'd have to have the king high flush for the nuts, or I'd have to have had 3b T9hh or worse. So if villain does not think I'm one to 3b suited connectors then I have exactly the top of my range (or KT).

Now onto his range. A lot of the hands that are pretty reasonable hands to peel a 3b, such as KQhh KJhh QJhh QThh JThh and all the Axhh are not possible since those cards are on the board. So KT beats me and any of the smaller suited connecting hands from T9hh down.

Now I don't like the argument "well what worse hands can really call you?" since bbissick is a good thinking player. If he puts together that I shouldn't have a ton of flushes or straights then he should be able to call with any of his 2 pair or sets here. That being said, he might still fold those, and are there enough combos of those to justify a bet here?

This is essentially everything I was thinking as I dipped into my time bank. If I'm overlooking anything here I'd love to hear what you guys think. Also let me know what you think the best play is. And bbissick of course you can chime in too .

Against very good agro ambitious guys you should c/c. Against stations you should jam. Against nits you should consider c/f but man its sick

Other considerations. You should go bigger pre (with your range). There's some merit to checking flop or turn since there's a ton of bad runouts. For instance say you check flop. Often they'll barrel barrel QX and draws and you can c/c flop and then check jam turn. You also protect you flop c/c range in this way. I'm not saying this is the best line and cbetting flop and this turn is for sure profitable.

Think spots like these especially turn and river are big weak spots of mtt regs playing cash (not a dig at you personally) but having 50-60bb behind for the river spot is rare for mtt players but it's essentially where cash grinders get their edge. And it's a very reads based kinda spot as I mentioned in the earlier part of my post.

x/c vs bbbissick, he has some bluffs and value bets 2p.

bigger pre

^^ It's definitely an interesting hand for sure, I'll give some insight.

As said above, I think you're gonna want to go a little bit bigger pre OOP, somewhere between 3.2-4x.

You can definitely check your hand some frequency of the time on this flop, but I prefer betting. Your sizing is good on both flop and turn.

As far as my range, once I call your turn bet my range is definitely a lot more narrow, I have all FD's, Qx, K10s...potentially 109s although your turn bet would most likely fold this combo.

The river is definitely an interesting card, and I can see why you're in a bit of a conundrum but it definitely has to be a check. I'm jamming (along with population) my two pair on the turn (QJs, 76s).

Additionally, you massively block the two pair you're trying to get value from as I only have 3 combos of AQ.

Granted with the Ah out there, I only have about 7 flush combinations but I do still have 4 combos of K10s. 11 Value combos.

I would also say I have very few bluffs here...maybe, maybe I turn KhQx into a bluff but that's unlikely.


Actually went over this hand in PIO solver, from a GTO perspective, it's a river bet when we're 100 bb deep, and it's a c/c with our stack sizes in the hand.

So cliffs, think we should be checking that river with the majority of our range. I like c/f, although I can see argument for C/cing

It really depends on how you construct your ranges and this spot is one where a lot of players will have trouble with AA by the river regardless of runout.


Definitely agree with a lot of points above with sizing and checking. I personally like to put AA in my c/c range on flop as we block a ton of Ax (AT, AK, AQ) that will give us value. An added benefit is that it will allow us to c/c our Jx midpairs and AK comfortably without capping our c/c range. We can always comfortably get value from pairs on subsequent streets.

That said, another sound strategy at these stakes is barrel wide with a wide bluffing range and triple barrel on a high frequency. Not many players will be raising you on these boards where you have more nutted hands and you will get to run over many regs at 200NL. If we decide to go with this strategy, AA is still very up there on our value range.


TLDR: A lot of good strategies here but 3barrel vs station is likely best :P

EDIT: +1 whatever Pokerarb said

Appreciate all of the feedback guys! It appears that the general consensus is that c/c'ing is best, with c/f'ing being a consideration. I almost like c/f'ing better than c/c'ing. If we check I'm not sure I can think of too many hands that is now going to bluff. I guess T9 or some pairs that decide they don't have showdown value. The point I took away from this the most is that I didn't think enough about what 2 pair sort of hands bbissick could have (as he himself pointed out here). Given I block all the aces it's unlikely he has aces up which leaves very few 2 pair combos. I definitely defer to you guys though and agree c/c is best, though as crazy as it seems I don't think c/f is awful.

That being said, I bet! lol I assume this is the worst option, especially given bbissick tank called with 54hh. When they tank call with better your value bet was prooooobably not great. Live and learn!

Lost another $900ish yesterday to bring my monthly profit to $22. Had a shot to win that 2nd $100 Stars MTT again, busted when guy went r/c'ed 6K-->50K at 1250/2500 from SB vs my BB. He had A6s. I'd been playing quite tight with 2 other players with identical stacks and him and another guy playing a lot more. The call seems horrible. I had AT and he flopped a 6 and it was see ya later. This downswing will end eventually I promise!

I am home in the Trenton area right now. My car is at the shop getting inspected, hopefully it will be done by tomorrow. In any case, I'm not gonna play 1A of the Parx $550 tomorrow, instead waiting for Friday (and Saturday if necessary). In the past I always play the first day but I think it's probably more profitable to wait for the weekend. I'll be firing up to 4 bullets but I'm gonna go in with a slightly different mindset. I'm going to try to think the way I did for the Borgata $2700 and play very tight aggressive. The structure isn't quite as good as the Borg Main but it's the best $550 structure you'll ever find so it's close enough. For some reason Joe saying "if it folds to you in CO and you have A8o, just fold" has been sticking in my head. It seems so tight but I think it just helps to avoid spots that get you in unnecessary trouble with a structure that's good enough to find much better spots. That being said, T9s and other stuff that flops well will still be an open. So if you're at my table and on my left on Friday, you're welcome!

I'll probably play a condensed schedule tonight, I didn't bring my monitor home with me since it's just more work that it's worth to lug it around and I don't always use it anyway. Probably just the 10Ks and some other stuff; 6 at a time max maybe only 4. Chillin with the fam for now.

Been playing with you here and there in the nightly 100s on WSOP, just came upon this thread. Awesome dude, subbed and looking forward to how it goes, might see you down at Parx this weekend also. Glgl


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, 7s, Jh ]
Hero bets [$23.00 USD]
Player1 calls [$23.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]
Hero bets [$55.00 USD]
Player1 calls [$55.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Ah ]

I'd give bbbissick a range otr of:

KTs (4)
JJ (3)
77 (3)
QJs (3) (this probably checks behind otr)
T9s bluffs (3)
98ss bluff (1)
K9hh (1)
T9hh (1)
T8hh (1)
98hh (1)
97hh (1)
87hh (1)
76hh (1)
65hh (1)
54hh (1)
AQo (3)

Total combos: ~30 (he may have some other XXhh combos tbh since your sizing was very small and deep)

Assuming these are reasonable assumptions he has 9 flushes, 1 royal flush and 3 straights that beat you. He definitely bets JJ/77 for 6 combos you're ahead of and likely bets and also probably (I'm just assuming...) bets 98ss and T9ss/cc/dd as bluffs for a whopping 4 bluffs. I'm honestly not sure if BB would ship AQ or not, but honestly think he should x behind with this and QJ after looking at hand so we'll assume he checks those.

This means bbb would bet 13 combos that beat you, 6 combos of JJ/77 (which I don't think raise all the time, so bbb could chime in with regards to how often he raises flop w/ these, but think most people could call down). And then 4 combos of bluffs.

So he is betting otr when checked to with 23 combos, 10 of which you're ahead of. So if he bets you should call essentially any sizing because you are winning 10/23 of the time or approximately 43%.

Again, these are assumptions. For instance.... I'd have every single KXhh and lots of other XXhh vs your sizing.... I wouldn't fold 23hh for example. So it could a lot closer depending on how much he is defending pre.

Thanks man if you see me there come say hi!

This is the sort of analysis I need to be doing more of when I'm not playing. I love math so combinations is always fascinating to me and I understand most of it but don't study it nearly enough. I really appreciate you breaking this down, essentially proving mathematically that c/c is better than c/f. My sizing was definitely too small pre but fwiw it was $16 and not $15 as it appears in hand (15 on top of my 1 in SB I guess is what software does) but should go bigger. The idea of 100BB vs 150BB vs 200BB vs 250+BB poker requiring bigger sizings is something I'm completely not used to as a tourney player. For now I want to study more with tourneys but eventually I plan on getting better at cash.

Played 6 MTTs today, $650 in buy ins. 4th of 119 in the Stars 10K for $983. Won the Party 10K (94 runners) for $2850. +$3150 on the day. Parx tomorrow. Let's get out of this downswing.

Nice man. Keep up the heat. Glgl

I had no idea you played cash games...

W/AA hand good advice has already been given/stated i guess you could compare the EV between betting and x-calling, folding being 0 EV vs. this particular villain's range... if you want to further analyze it or you can go to piosolver.

IMO AA can be x-called and x-jamed like someone said and just construct ur range like that in this spot or you just be going bet, bet, etc... it really depends on villain's range/strat on this board/run out and his tendencies + what are you trying to accomplish

tyty!

Yeah I just dabble in cash from time to time. Part of me knows I should take it more seriously and get good at it so once in a while I want to play and practice and all that but I know I won't be great at it unless I start to commit some real time to it.



Bagged 215,500 from 40,000 starting stack in the Parx $550 today. Did it on one bullet which is sweet. 34 of 205 survived today's 1B session so average was around 240,000. Day 2 is Sunday, back to 2500/5000. Made a lot of hands today and stuck to the game plan of keeping my opening range quite tight and not getting out of line. I got out of line one hand and it did not work lol. Folds to my SB at 1200/2400. BB is a middle aged guy who has used some terminology to suggest he's played a bit online. He's introduced himself to me and we are friendly with each other. He told me he plays 50NL online sometimes but is not a winning player there but thinks he beats 2/5 live. I believe him. The last time it folded to my SB I limped he raise I called then c/f'ed flop.

I make it 6500 with KTss, he 3b's to 15,500. We are both over 200K deep. The last time he raised BB flop came Q42 and he claimed to have Q9. I think he's capable of being light. I considered 4 betting but flat instead.
Flop is AsAd4c. I check and he bets 16,000. I really think all 3 options aren't out of the realm of possibility. On one hand, the nit strategy says fold. The guy 2 to my left keeps wondering out loud how I can possibly be so tight. I assume my image is pretty squeaky clean at this point given all the big hands I've shown down. I could have the best hand and with 2 backdoors a call doesn't seem terrible. But I decide, especially being out of position, that if he has worse I'd rather he just fold now so I'm not guessing later. I don't think I have to make it big to get a fold on this incredibly dry board so I make it 37K. He takes quite a bit of time. I'm on the fence as to whether I think he's going to 3b, call, or fold. Finally he slides out about 90K.

Is he 3 betting an ace here?? I'm almost tempted to rip it in but the thought of punting this many chips when he clearly CAN have Ax makes me feel sick so I fold. He quickly turns over A5dd to show trips with no kicker. Theoretically he should probably fold if I shove but I highly doubt he would, especially since he should always be flatting my c/r in the first place. It was certainly an ambitious play by me but I still like it. I've noticed, as I've said before in this thread, that clicking back on these dry flops tends to work a lot. If flop was QQ4 I'm pretty confident I win this pot. Maybe the AAx flop is the wrong dry board to go after but with my image I took a shot and it didn't work out. Still fine with the play.

Back on Sunday for day 2. Torn between grinding online tomorrow or just taking the day off. I'll have to see how I feel.

Also nice write up by Matt Clark, nice guy who blogs when Will isn't there. Old pic but I still look fly obv: http://parxpokerbigstax.blogspot.com...-in-crowd.html

Your KT c/r is marginally bad but not awful awful. His flop 3b is atrocious. I'm guessing if you jam he'll go to the tank (and most likely ultimately call but perhaps fold this hand some %). These live fish click buttons and then when the last bet goes in they actually think through. Eg his flop 3b is because he likes his hand but he's somewhat worried and reraising for information. I'm sure he's not considering things like ya know ranges or whether his/your raises are for value of bluff etc

Also you can't really jam here as a bluff. His range contains some AK AQ AA which he's never ever 3b/folding. With your stack and the icm a bluff 4b here would be such a terrible punt

+1 to Arb

I think I like folding > calling > raising. Even though villain is on the weaker side, I think your c/r is super polarized and not really going to get better to fold. Additionally, are you going to c/r with say A10ss on a board that he has a stronger much range on (AA, AK, etc.)

Otherwise, nice job on the day sir, wish you didn't sell out in 5 mins so I couldve invested some

GL Sunday!!!

if you want to bluff, call flop, raise turn. much stronger line

Thanks for the input guys. I know on the surface the bluff looks absurd but I've seen several different live MTT grinders who use an aggressive style to the point where I feel like it can't be profitable, win consistently. I've written about this in previous posts and even cited a hand where I 3b KT on Q42 (guess I can't help myself with KT?) near the end of a day 1 at Borgata and got a fold. I don't do it often (not as often as these other guys do anyway) and I know it looks strange but the results some of these guys have has lead me to want to stop just marking it up to running good over and over, but to instead maybe take a page or two out of their books.

Just for perspective on why I think this stuff works only live, vs only weaker opponents. Jerrad, you asked if I'm going to c/r hands like AT in this spot. My answer: it doesn't matter. As pokerarb pointed out, it seems that people don't really think hands through until all the chips are in the middle. I really feel like people see this board and when I 3b will level themselves into folding any hand that is not trips or better. They also don't understand that their kickers are important in these situations. So A5 is trips and AK is trips so either way let's get the money in!

I really don't think calling is the play here. I understand what you guys are saying about flatting and bluffing on a later street if I want to take that line. It looks stronger and it is, admittedly, what I'd do with strong value here. But a raise on this flop is just going to cost me less when he has it and I think has a similar success rate vs someone who isn't thinking on as high of a level as we are. Against Volpe I'm not c/r'ing here; he's flatting his whole range and now I'm just in a world of hurt. But against a random, a c/r risks 37K to make non ace hands fold, whereas a flat and then a c/r is going to cost 16K+ the money that gets in on the turn, which will probably be around 75K by that point, just to have to fold to a guy who isn't dumping A5 anyway. Add to the fact that I'd been nitty all day and I think I'm just going to keep defending this play!

fwiw I only entertained the idea of 4b jamming postflop for a second before realizing that even though he SHOULDN'T have an ace in this spot when he 3b's post, there's a good chance that he does. So it's just complete spew to continue with the hand. But again, I think if this c/r works it just looks like a creative play and when it doesn't it looks like spew. Most of what the live guys I referenced above do looks like spew when it doesn't work, but they also have multiple Parx titles, so I'm okay with experimenting with some unorthodox stuff that looks bad on paper.

The last few sessions I've played I've felt like winning hands is possible again. I think my low point of this downswing was folding JJ on the J42Ax 3 diamond board and getting shown 22. That error cost me potentially $13K. I think a big part of that fold came from me just getting so used to getting shown better that I convinced myself he could have a flush and only a flush. I would not make that fold again today.

I only played 3 tourneys tonight and managed 4th in the Party 10K again as well. Made another $500 or so today. Excited for Parx tomorrow. Today got a massive 640 entrants for a total of 1170 entries for the tourney overall (and people can still buy in tomorrow for $550 to receive 40K in chips at 2500/5000). Should be 6 figures for the winner. Looking forward to it.