Down around 1k for the day, but lost 2k on stream. Brutal session!

Thanks for coming all

Played a lot today. Ran really awful but also played bad at 100z and lost a few bi there earlier in the day. Then played a mix of 200-600nl and ran like **** for an hour losing quite a bit and then made almost all of it back at the one 600nl table i was playing.

Close to a breakeven day, might have lost a couple hundy. Ran awful though so I'm cool with it.

Good morning.

What's your leak?

People were donk betting and playing funky and I was giving them too much aggression.

https://www.twitch.tv/brokenstars666

Made just shy of $1500 on stream last night thanks for everyone who stopped by!

Caught the stream last night just randomly. Saw the name going through the poker channel list, "Hey I recognize that guy."

Hopefully you can explain something to me. I heard Doug Polk talk about a scenario/concept and then you and your friend made mention of the same scenario but it's over my head. Neither of you three explained it but talked as if it was ABC kind of stuff.

I don't remember the exact board or betting action but I believe you were the preflop raiser and had control post flop, the flop was unconnected but had two clubs and you held the king of clubs. No club came on the turn/river and the board run out was fairly dry. Now you guys both agreed that bluffing the river wasn't good because you had the king of clubs. Doug Polks scenario was identical where he had the king of a suit that matched a flop with two cards of that suit.

I know this is fairly vague but it was a case where you guys thought turning your hand into a bluff was bad when a potential flush bricked out and you had one card of that suit which was a king. Kind of a, "I have this card meaning my opponent doesn't" deal? I assume it had to do with removing the card from your opponent's range after they had called a raise or bet meaning they were less likely to be calling with a flush draw and more towards value hands?

Not sure if any of that made sense or if you know the concept I might be talking about.

Sure can definitely explain it. It has to deal with "blockers" and it's exactly what you think, but let me explain it a bit more.

I don't remember the exact board/hand you're referencing... but here is an example.

Let's say we open from the MP with KJ and BB calls.

We're heads up to the flop

A73

BB checks to us and we bet 2/3 psb

BB calls

Turn T

BB checks to us and we bet 2/3 psb again

BB calls

River 3

BB checks to us

On this run out it's possible for the BB to have some XX combos that may fold to a river barrel. So in general we don't want to be blocking his XX combos. Now had the river came a 4 instead we would definitely want to barrel this combo as we're blocking the nuts with the K so he can't have hands like KQ and other KX combos that can easily call. Our J in this situation would also block one his better AX combos.

We want to be bluffing with hands that block part of his calling range, QJ combos with no club/diamond would be good here as they are blocking some of his best AX hands. In general I don't want to be blocking my opponents folding range when I'm bluffing--I want to block his calling range. This is to increase the frequency in which my bluff gets through.

It should be mentioned that a GTO strategy will randomize a variety of different hands, but will place some weight into blocking effects.

Thanks for the detailed breakdown, I think if we think about it like well what does 1 club matter, it being a Broadway club effectively cuts down his flush draw combos by 25% if you are thinking he only can have KT+, QT+, J9+, and suited connectors. Even more so if he is a tight player that wouldn't call with the smaller connectors... Didn't mean to hijack but just thinking out loud and I'm just starting to get into the range/combo studying lately so I am geeking out

Ahh, ok. I figured it was something along those lines but needed it spelled out. I'll have to let that one simmer a little bit. Thanks for explaining.

I just ran a PIO sim of Ac 7d 3c for MP vs BB

I gave the MP an RFI of 20.66% for 2.50bb sizing and the BB a calling range of about 21% of hands with a lot of mixing and reasonable amount of 3bing.

The settings I gave were the same for the IP/OOP players

Flop sizing: 66%
Turn sizing: 66%, 210%
River sizing: 66%, 210%

Flop/turn/river raise sizings: 54%
----------------------------------------

Flop:

BB checks flop ~100%
MP bets a fairly low percentage here @ 37%. The A high, low low texture doesn't connect with our range particularly well and lots of our hands are vulnerable in a way ahead/way behind situations vs. any of villains AX combos. The two-toned nature of the texture also decreases our c-betting frequency slightly. Most people in todays games don't raise enough vs a c-bet though or defend enough and this is going to increase our c-betting frequency dramatically, but I'm not going to node lock anything in this.

If we look at what suits for c-bets PIO prefers there is a clear preference to clubs. Hands like KJo or QJo that contain a club are c-bet very often here.



BB reaction to MP c-bet: folds 50%, raises 7%, and calls the rest. BB will rarely be able to defend 1-a (minimum defence frequency, MDF) vs a c-bet from RFI.



Turn: T

BB checks 100%

MP bets almost half its range here -- pretty interesting it chooses to overbet about 13.5% of it's range. This actually happens a decent amount in runouts like this -- though I haven't implemented into my game basically at all.

KJo with Kc is c-bet very often again on this turn, we have 4 outs to a straight and some dece blockers here as on club rivers we should have a profitable river bet or jam.



BB reaction to turn c-bet: Only folds 36.31% vs. our 2/3psb ott which is defending slightly more than 1-a.



We take a river 3

BB checks whole range

MP bets out river again about half the time. Main bluffs being QJ without a spade, 98s with heavy weight on the heart/diamond/spade combos 65s and 54s (bottom of our range). Combos like KQcc, KJcc are checked behind here with 100% frequency. Extremely interesting to see MP check behind with a decent amount of AK. Should also note the AxKc combos are c-bet at a slightly higher frequency because we block some of his folding combos (and therefore get more calls).

Interesting stuff. I'm going to do some homework on these scenarios this weekend.

is there a reason you choose to use 66% on flop instead of 33 or even smaller

On this specific texture I usually c-bet on the larger side, 50%-67% as rfi vs bb. I wanted to keep the sim simple, I'll rerun and msg back.

When I do PIO work I generally allow two sizings on the flop, 33 and 75. I'll run the exact same sim with flop sizings of 33, 75, 100 and see which it prefers and msg back.

Not quite sure what this means, but....

COOL!

33% is preferred and increases the overall betting frequency to about 50%

Here is a picture of part of an aggregated analysis report I ran a while back for BB vs BTN and I had it backwards. Ace X X where X = low card the IP player prefers a lower sizing and if there is a broadway/connectedness it prefers higher sizing.

First picture is sorted for high - low for the 3/4 psb (41). I highlighted the AXX boards



Second picture has other AXX boards highlighted

Try running a sim with both the 33% and 66%
Then run a sim with only 33% flop sizing
Then run a sim with only the 66% flop sizing
Keep rest of tree the same for each sim

Then compare the overall ev of each game to learn how much sizing really matters.

It doesn't matter. (or at least very little)

Yeah, I came to the same conclusion, but I still spend a good amount of time studying flop bet sizings for some reason. It is still a pretty interesting thing to study, and I am sure understanding when and why the different sizings are chosen has some merit to it.

Played about 30 mins of 200z before I go to bed.

+$500

(sun)

Month is effectively over for me since I work Fri/Sat/Sun. Went okay, shottook @ 400/600 was aids.

I enjoyed looking at the Pio screengrabs, so thanks for posting that detailed analysis.
I don't know why, but the huge amount of mixing always amuses me. Like when you set it to 33% sizing, you can c-bet 100% of your range, as long as you only bet at 49% frequency on average (with some hands being bet at higher frequencies than others, ldo).
If anyone ever questions my random spews, I'm just gonna say "Low frequency balance play, bro. Pio says it's fine", and in most cases it probably is, because mixed strats mean almost every action is viable in a vacuum, on the flop at least. (It's partly how I got a low error rate with Snowie despite being terrible at poker. With small bets on the early streets, it's virtually impossible to make a blunder).

Good luck with the Twitch affiliation thing. I'll try and drop in next month.

Funny, when I make a big hand in limit holdem, it makes me wish I was playing no limit.

It's true though. Limit holdem betting frequencies are much higher than no limit. For quite some time, the 100% flop cbet was considered expert. Now? It's maybe B+.

April 2017 was fun. Didn't play any hands until a third of the way through the month. Had a blast streaming and I also took some (failed) shots @ 400nl. I'm thinking May 2017 is going to be big!!!

Month in $$



Month in BB



Month by stake

Going to shot take 400nl with high stakes pro commentator Rick K.

https://www.twitch.tv/brokenstars666