Quote:
Originally Posted by upswinging
its a call if you think sb can turn top pair into a bluff
Quote:
Originally Posted by czarcaesar
sigh call. villain could value bet worse? (J9 or AJ).
I think having the Qs is good. It does block QTs which isn't that bad because one of those QTs makes a flush.
If villain has KQo or QTo in range I think it makes a very easy call.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerarb
It's a very ugly spot. If villain is aware, it's clear to both that you have a bluff catcher, so it comes down to how thinly you think he can go for value vrs how many bluffs he fires this size otr.
Also preflop matters a lot here. How wide he's over calling btn will determine how many bluffs he can arrive to river with. For instance, if he has a bunch of kqo, QTo, KTo stuff pre that's likely to barrel off and creates many potential bluff combos and id be inclined to call. If not, it's kind of hard 4 way to see what can even empty the clip here as a bluff so I'd prefer to fold.
I'll also add I much prefer a cbet here for value and to fold out various villains equity on the flop. If called on the flop, I'd be looking to then slow down. As played, think x isn't much worse and the turn is a snap call b/c he may even value bet worse. I'm inclined to big sigh and muck river as played.
You mentioned you know villain. Any reads? More bluffy? More nitty? Etc. Should help inform a better decision
Thanks
My original loose assumptions were:
- unlikely value betting worse when the bdfd comes in
- realistically only has 4 value combos
- naked bdnfd might be unlikely to take a stab at this flop 4 way
- shouldn't be too hard to find 2 combos of QTs/KQ bluffs
- not sure about the offsuit broadways she has pre but I'd guess most of them are folds (I would)
A lot of this is just me projecting how I'd play this spot. Apparently I'm a nit and make bad assumptions because she and two other live pros I asked said they would flat T8s pre. Vs a solid lj open (+ reg heavy T20 lineup where the blinds are prob doing their fair share of squeezing) I'm not flating and I'd think a solid reg doing it would be uncommon.
Start adding those T8 value combos and maybe some nfd to her range then all of a sudden finding enough bluffs becomes harder.
Flop I tend to go more defensive in this spot oop multiway but I agree QQ would benefit in a lot of ways from cbetting.