It's been more mixed results lately. I'm struggling to get much above breakeven. I feel like I'm learning a lot through coaching, but the results are more of the same. Big pots are just going the other way more often than mine. I still want to believe it's variance but honestly who knows. My entire sample is only 170k hands. I'm at 2BB/100 over that sample. I'm just grinding and fighting hoping for a huge run up like I had around this time last year. I'm not going to lie, it's made me question if this is worth it. I enjoy poker, but at this point it's taking up a significant portion of my free time. Probably close to 80% of it. Between work & family I don't get a lot of time that's purely mine, and right now that's almost always poker, either studying or playing.

I enjoy it, but at some point I want to turn it to some money. Money that will make a difference in my life. Like at least 10K/year would bet the goal. If that feels out of reach, I may just call it. I'm not sure when I'll make that call. Maybe end of year? There are other hobbies I've had to sacrifice, mostly just video games/movies/tv shows etc. that I've had to brush aside to focus on poker in what little time I have.

The casino gaming and sports betting have just been so much more lucrative, which I am super thankful for. That's going to pay for a few years of frivolous ****, which I will thoroughly enjoy. I took a trip to new Orleans. We are going to Disney World at the end of this month. We are going on several camping trips. We're spending a week in Mississippi before Christmas to visit some family. I just bought a 24 foot pool (to replace the 16 footer I bought at the start of the pandemic) and will have to pay someone to level the spot in my yard for it because I did it a craptacular job trying to level a 16 foot circle, no way in hell can I do 24 feet. But the kids should love it, I just hope my neighbors don't *****, our HOA rules don't say anything against it but there's some suburban yuppies around here.

I've been trying to slog my way through the Upswing Lab but I'm not sure I'm getting top value out of it. I get that content that spans multiple years and multiple coaches isn't always going to be consistent, but I'm not sure it's really sticking and boosting my game. I'm somewhat committed to getting through it. Uri Peleg has a course coming out next week that has my very intrigued and I'm likely going to purchase. I think the title is "elite cash game exploits." I feel like that's an area I definitely want to study more. And I'm not going to lie, it also comes with a course titled "Red Line Rocketship." Look up videos of rockets crashing on launch and that's what my red line looks like. While I know I'm not necessarily supposed to care, it still "feels" like that's where my leaks are. I hope these courses + my recent coaching can really turn things around. I'll get back to playing more tomorrow night.

Here's my graph of my last 14 months or so. The reasons for my frustrations should be fairly obvious, lol:

Hang in there bud. I think with you taking the steps to improve that you are doing, if you just give it some time for everything to gel together it will lead to one or multiple "A-ha" moments and everything will start to fall into place. Keep up the good fight

Any thoughts of returning to the live arena? $10K/year is a very reasonable expectation for a weekend warrior, the games are obviously more fun to play, and with your newfound on-line knowledge you should crush live in your sleep, no? Course I guess it can be hard to fit into a normal family schedule, but getting in one session a week doesn't seem like it should be impossible...

GgoodluckG

I hear you on the "a-ha" moments. Things definitely do click every once in a while when I'm studying. I was joking the other day that for the most part I way overadjust every time I find a leak and likely end up back and forth like a see-saw, maybe someday I'll converge on that balance. In the mean time, I will keep up the good fight.

My past live play was about 3 hours per week. Even with a crushing 1/2 winrate of $20/hr that would be about $3K. When I was playing live it was definitely more for the fun than for the money, that's for sure. I don't think I see this happening though. If the card room were closer, maybe, but it's just such a drive and at an inconvenient time. Maybe at some point in my life I'll get back to poker being an occasional hobby where the money barely matters, but right now I still have aspirations of this being a semi-serious profitable side hustle, and the best place to get that is online.

Poker has been a part of my life now since '05, but this is the most serious I've taken it since 2006 when I was considering it as a replacement for my then $17/hr job that was going away and the job market for new grads was pretty dismal. I ended up finally getting a full time engineering gig (at the monumental salary of $20/hr) and the rest is history. It's either been I've barely played at all (2006-2010), started the serious side hustle online before black friday (2011) or back to the few hours a week live fun times (2014-2020).

One option that's always in the back of my head is just parking my ass at the microstakes and living there. I feel like I should be able to beat 100NL right now given some of the stuff I see there, but it's not really happening. Maybe I just keep a small roll online and play some occasional 25NL, don't really study, and whatever happens happens. I feel like 100NL is the minimum stake for me to play where I'll want to take poker seriously, where I keep studying and putting in significant off table work. But playing smaller games more casually, sort of like I did live, is a potential poker future for me as well.

In the short to medium term, I think I'm committed to this. I'm gonna keep grinding and studying in the time I have and hope to right this ship. Looking at my graph I see I'm at least up a bit after that godawful december/january downswing, so there's at least some promise there. Like I said, I think I'm at least a winning player, ableit one with some leaks, that's just hit a pretty brutal run the last few months. I want to believe if I stick it out the heaters will come, and when they do I'll be sure to post it here, because what a sweet day it will be. And if it doesn't, oh well. I've still withdrawn and spent some decent money from this hobby, and it got me into online gambling overall, which like I said has just been a massive profit center for me. So sorry if it seems like a bit of a downer in this thread. Overall my life is as good as it's ever been, it's just the poker part that hasn't been going my way. If this were a life blog and not a poker blog, it'd be pretty ****** sweet.

Normally wouldn't post an update for just one session but tonight was an interesting one. Maybe this one is a microcosm of my overall struggles. I'm grinding along, putting the concepts I've learned to work, making some tough folds, working in a lot of bluffs, and my red line is actually humming along pretty good, something quite abnormal for me (see graph). But then just slap an adidas logo on my nuts and let Ronaldo fire off a penalty kick because I get smacked with this hand. By itself it's not that interesting. Maybe I could've checked at some point but I'm pretty sure 99% of the time stacks are going in here. The frustration is more that if this is indeed a standard cooler, I feel like I'm just way too often on the wrong side of them. And it's always hands like this too. It's not like I"m getting it in as an 80% fav and getting sucked out on, so it doesn't even show on my AiEV graph (I'm actually running a bit good there). It's just nuts vs 2nd nuts, a lot. I'm fighting to stay above water, then lose an AKs vs QQ flip to a 50BB stack to put this sesh in the L column. Yeah, it's just one session, just another frustration that even when things sort of go well for me, like actually winning a lot of the small pots I'm fighting for, they end up going bad too. I feel like I'm overdue for the good ones, but man my patience gets a bit thin.

The annoying hand:

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 125.38 BB
Hero (SB): 119.31 BB
BB: 81.6 BB
UTG: 106.46 BB
MP: 90.79 BB
CO: 126.4 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K Q

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, BTN calls 8.5 BB

Flop: (23 BB, 2 players) J T A
Hero bets 7.21 BB, BTN calls 7.21 BB

Turn: (37.42 BB, 2 players) T
Hero bets 23.7 BB, BTN calls 23.7 BB

River: (84.82 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 77.4 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 77.4 BB

Hero shows K Q (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 46%, Flop 65%, Turn 0%)
BTN shows J J (Full House, Jacks full of Tens)
(Pre 54%, Flop 35%, Turn 100%)
BTN wins 236.62 BB

But the session overall:

Last post for a while as I'm on vacation. The hits just keep coming. I'm just getting crushed over and over in big pots. I just got stacked 3 times in all-in spots in close succession. Does anyone find the fold in any of these?

Villain is a standard nit reg.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 311.65 BB
BTN: 38.16 BB
SB: 128.69 BB
BB: 171.95 BB
Hero (UTG): 101.26 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 9

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2 BB, BB raises to 11 BB, Hero calls 8.5 BB, fold

Flop: (24.5 BB, 2 players) 6 Q 9
BB bets 12.57 BB, Hero calls 12.57 BB

Turn: (49.64 BB, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero bets 23 BB, BB calls 23 BB

River: (95.64 BB, 2 players) A
BB bets 125.38 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 54.69 BB and is all-in

BB shows A A (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 81%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
Hero shows 9 9 (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 19%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
BB wins 202.02 BB

Villain here is an unknown, my second hand at the table. I didn't love the flush completing but figured my hand was too good in a 3-bet pot.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 106.65 BB
CO: 96.69 BB
BTN: 98.5 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 217.27 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 A

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, BTN calls 9 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) 6 8 T
Hero checks, BTN bets 13.87 BB, Hero calls 13.87 BB

Turn: (52.74 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, BTN bets 27.05 BB, Hero calls 27.05 BB

River: (106.84 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BTN bets 45.58 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 45.58 BB

BTN shows 9 J (Straight, Queen High)
(Pre 41%, Flop 52%, Turn 32%)
Hero shows 8 A (Three of a Kind, Eights)
(Pre 59%, Flop 48%, Turn 68%)
BTN wins 195 BB

Same relatively unknown villain from the last hand. I like this runout a bit better.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 77.49 BB
BB: 87.7 BB
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
CO: 95.5 BB
BTN: 419.63 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, CO calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (8 BB, 3 players) K 9 8
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, fold, BB raises to 14 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

Turn: (36 BB, 2 players) 5
BB bets 22.1 BB, Hero calls 22.1 BB

River: (80.2 BB, 2 players) 8
BB bets 49.1 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 49.1 BB

BB shows 8 K (Full House, Eights full of Kings)
(Pre 25%, Flop 74%, Turn 86%)
Hero shows A K (Two Pair, Kings and Eights)
(Pre 75%, Flop 26%, Turn 14%)
BB wins 175.4 BB

And just for good measure a hero fold I made that I think I sort of like. The flop call may have been a bit thin:

PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 106.78 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 105.36 BB
CO: 101.5 BB
BTN: 159.16 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q J

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 8 A K
Hero checks, UTG bets 2.48 BB, Hero calls 2.48 BB

Turn: (11.46 BB, 2 players) T
Hero checks, UTG bets 6.52 BB, Hero raises to 22.46 BB, UTG calls 15.94 BB

River: (56.38 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, UTG bets 77.42 BB and is all-in, fold

UTG wins 53.56 BB

This is now the 4th month of either breakeven or losing. The frustrating part is I feel like I'm getting better. I'm fighting and clawing for smaller pots that I wasn't before, and I can see that paying off in a lot of spots. But it just gets wiped out and then some by repeated hands like this. I want to believe that I'm mostly playing these spots right and this is just variance kicking me in the nuts but I'm not really sure. Any time I make a good hand that I feel warrants my stack going in, this stuff happens.

Fold river an option here? I was pretty sure I was toast on the flop.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 209.83 BB
MP: 98.5 BB
CO: 102.92 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 132.27 BB
BB: 114.46 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) T A J
MP checks, Hero bets 10 BB, MP raises to 20 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

Turn: (59.5 BB, 2 players) 9
MP checks, Hero checks

River: (59.5 BB, 2 players) 3
MP bets 56.52 BB, Hero raises to 71 BB and is all-in, MP calls 12.98 BB and is all-in

Hero shows A A (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 88%, Flop 35%, Turn 23%)
MP shows Q K (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 12%, Flop 65%, Turn 77%)
MP wins 195.5 BB

I came back from a long vacation refreshed and ready to grind, and of course picked up right where I left off, clocking in another losing session. This one was a bit of my fault. I really should have given this hand up on the turn but got stubborn.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 429.97 BB
Hero (SB): 192.85 BB
BB: 93.75 BB
UTG: 100 BB
CO: 114.75 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 6 BB, fold, UTG calls 5 BB

Flop: (13 BB, 2 players) A 2 Q
Hero bets 8.23 BB, UTG raises to 16.46 BB, Hero calls 8.23 BB

Turn: (45.92 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, UTG bets 77.54 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 77.54 BB

River: (201 BB, 2 players) T

Hero shows A K (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 74%, Flop 30%, Turn 20%)
UTG shows 2 A (Two Pair, Aces and Twos)
(Pre 26%, Flop 70%, Turn 80%)
UTG wins 198 BB

But this is sort of the theme of my sessions lately. I make TPTK, someone makes 2 pair. I make a set, someone makes a straight or a flush. I get QQ/KK, someone gets AA.

Here's my overall graph:



And my results by stake:



At this point I feel like I have no choice but to go back to 50NL and see how it goes. I'm down 18 buyins at 100NL since the start of March. That may be the stake I permanently stay at, who knows. I am still a bit befuddled by how I had such massive success last year and then just nothing this year. Was my upswing just good variance? Am I facing a crushing run right now or am I just bad? My downswing is only about 70K hands at this point, which I guess in the grand scheme of things is not that long.

I went in to this journey knowing I had to be flexible as to what stakes I was playing. It just sucks that everything I have learned about poker and through analyzing my game says that I should at least be competitive at 100/200, but for the last 4 months it's just been a bloodbath. I want to give props to my coach for some of the lessons he's taught me but until they actually result in some wins at the table I don't think that's fair. He's taught me a lot more about exploitative play and how to spot leaks with regs and fish and I feel like I'm doing that (above hand not counted, that was a **** up I'll admit to) but it's just more losing. Back to studying and hopefully grinding a good winrate at 50NL.

Live is way easier than online. The stakes you were playing are very hard to beat and I would not even try.

Like gg, I also suggest you hit the casino instead. With all you’ve learned playing online you’re probably well ahead of most live players. And I’m not convinced anyone is guaranteed making more online compared to live, not at all given the competition, bots, collusion, etc. Gl!

The thing with playing live was even on my best years I was maybe playing about 3 hours per week. It was barely economical as it was. I live about 50 minutes from the nearest room. So on the weeks I played it was a lot of driving for a few hours and that was about it. So about 150 hours a year or so, and all the variance that comes with that. It was more just my escape, my one sort of man hobby that I had. Some guys golf or whatever, I would play poker. I enjoyed it, but poker was a much smaller part of my life than it is now. Being able to sit down and play just about anytime has made it more practical for me to take this game much more seriously. However like I said earlier, if I keep getting spanked around, I'll probably just abandon it at some point. Maybe after some time off I'd get the itch and go back to my live sessions, but playing any sort of real volume live is not likely unless a new cardroom opens up near by. We actually had a couple charity rooms in my small city back in the boom years (2007-10ish) but those have long since closed and I never even played a single hand in them. Michigan's rules on charity poker are not too friendly unfortunately, otherwise I think those rooms survive.

I hear you on bots & collusion. I don't think that's a real problem on the Michigan specific sites at the moment, but definitely something to watch out for. Winning in the games is sure tough though. One stat I added to my HUD lately was player winrate. I never really checked on guys winrates all that much, but looking at it, it's quite amazing how few winners there are and the ones that are positive are usually either very small samples or something very small like 2bb/100. Even though it's a small sample, my 7 to 12 bb/100 winrate at 50NL is sort of a good spot where I'd be happy. It works about to about 5 to 8k/year at my volume. I'm going set up some system where I pull some money out of my roll if I win at a lower stake, just to avoid any see-sawing back and forth of winning at 50NL and giving it all back at 100. I'm probably going to play a few more sessions of 100NL, or maybe even 200NL, just to try and clear a deposit bonus I'm working on. If I right the ship, I'll stick with it. Otherwise I'll go back down to 50 and start the grind from there.

Yeah, 50 minute drive there and back for 3 hours of live play doesn't make much sense. Heck, with gas prices alone you might be sunk already, lol. Only alternative would be to set aside like a Saturday or Sunday where you could get in a ~10 hour session, but that might be difficult / impractical for a family man with obligations.

GgoodluckG

i have a drive of about 1 hour 15 min

i take the back roads on the way for a nice scenic drive and then highway home at 3 when the room is closed

don't bother unless i can get there for a 10 hour + session so it's tough to do it and kinda forces that to be an entire day poker day, legit considering just renting a place near the room and legit been shopping at camper vans (would also use for camping/fishing) but i'm unsure if i'm willing to accept the social stigma of someone who lives out of a van and plays poker

but i kind of make a day of it, have a big meal at home before i head off and pack a sandwich at times but kind of never get hungry in the casino ever so stopped recently since i just end up eating it simply because other option is to throw it away

i also bring my laptop and take a few breaks to do some work

There is no way anybody is making more online on a per hand basis compared to live, but you can get about 20x the amount of hands online over the same period of time. You don't need a very big win-rate to outperform live at equivalent stakes.

Well, there shouldn't be very many other winners when you are sitting at the table. You are taking EV from other players, including winners, if you are above average in the pool. Their win-rate from their perspective should be higher than from yours. To get accurate win-rates you'd need to use observed hands.

My drive is averaging around 45 minutes one way, can be 1 hour+ with bad traffic, and 35 minutes without any, usually only when heading home. I try to put in at least a few hours, much more on weekends. I quickly got used to the commute and now it's second nature.

Good point, never thought about that. And I don't really have a big enough sample on anyone to have either number be all that accurate, it's not even that useful of a stat in game. It's just somewhat surprising to see some of the better players I play against to have either negative or barely positive winrates when I'm playing, especially since I've been donating to the games a lot. Although honestly a lot of my biggest losses are against obvious fishy players who are getting there against me at a pretty frightening rate.

I decided to play a few more sessions of 200NL to see if I can right this ship. I have a deposit bonus to clear and it clears way faster at 200NL so what the hell. It's been OK, I'm about even after 2 sessions. I ran even on the coolers, so that's a refreshing change. I have my last coaching session this week, then I'm done with that. Work has been busy lately so I haven't been able to get as far into the Uri Peleg course as I'd have liked to. Normally I sort of sneak 40 minutes from work to get it in a video but just haven't been able to. It's summer time now. The outdoor project list is piling up, and this will definitely cut into poker time. It will really take a hit once the kids are done with school and bedtime goes from 7:30 to 9:00 or later. Yikes. I have another month for that.

The good news is after a couple months of getting jack squat from DK they hit me with a decent promo this week. Bet $100K on table games get $1K, and bet $30K on slots get $1K. The table games one is about $600 in EV playing blackjack. The slots is about even on a 97% slot, but it paired nicely with one of their missions that was bet $40K @ $20/spin and get $1.5K. So 3.5K in total. I ran hot in both games, finishing up about $5500, and that volume is good enough for about $200 on their weekly leaderboard. I only managed to convert about $3K of the $3.5K in credits, but overall I made $8.5K for a few hours work. Hell yeah.

The decision to move up to 200NL paid off at least. I'm up almost 6 buyins, and I probably got an extra $50 or so out of my deposit bonus that I otherwise wouldn't have, along with some rakeback. So that's good. I'm going to give this stake another shot. I'm done with coaching for now. I definitely learned things that I wasn't getting anywhere else, so now we will see if we can turn some of those concepts into wins. I'm moving slowly through the Uri Peleg course, but work is cutting into my study time. I consider my work hours 8-5, but usually spend about an hour promo hunting. If it's slow, I may watch a video. The last couple weeks have been busy, so not much course study for me. I've also packed on about 30 COVID pounds that I need to shed, so hitting the weight room is also cutting into the poker/study time, but it's worth it. I just need to be super efficient and not sweat trying to make poker a priority in my life. It's what I do with the extra time I have.

The next challenge is not to spend too much of my windfall gambling winnings. I tried to tally up our Disney World trip, and for a family of 5 for 6 nights in Orlando, flights + hotels + 2 days at Disney parks came in at just over 8.5k. The fun part was just not sweating the spending at all. If we wanted to do something, we did it.

That's probably the big family vacation for the year. We have 4 or so camping trips on the books, and the plan is to pay all with gambling winnings. The first one is June 3rd. It's in Indiana, and I may try to grind some Indiana new user sign ups while I'm there, although I hear they are cracking down on that loophole. We'll see. Then in December we are driving down to Mississippi to see some family and stay in an AirBNB for a week. That one will be the next big expenditure.

Hopefully I can keep up this profit rate to help take the edge off:



Although a decent chunk of it was funded by this hand that I thankfully survived:

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 140.39 BB
CO: 120.36 BB
BTN: 26.79 BB
SB: 163.31 BB
Hero (BB): 125.61 BB
UTG: 121.13 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 8

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 5 8 T
Hero checks, MP bets 4 BB, BTN raises to 23.79 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 23.79 BB, MP calls 19.79 BB

Turn: (80.86 BB, 3 players) 6
Hero bets 98.83 BB and is all-in, MP calls 98.83 BB

River: (278.51 BB, 3 players) A

Hero shows 8 8 (Three of a Kind, Eights)

Main Pot [80.86 BB]: (Pre 17%, Flop 55%, Turn 67%)
Side Pot#1 [197.65 BB]: (Pre 52%, Flop 61%, Turn 71%)

MP shows 9 J (High Card, Ace)

Main Pot [80.86 BB]: (Pre 15%, Flop 37%, Turn 29%)
Side Pot#1 [197.65 BB]: (Pre 48%, Flop 39%, Turn 29%)

BTN shows K K (One Pair, Kings)

Main Pot [80.86 BB]: (Pre 68%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

Hero wins 277.01 BB

It wasn't all perfect though. i had a few not go my way. I wasn't sure on this bluff, but it got the seal approval from some players I trust, despite the hilarious result:

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 121.26 BB
SB: 134.88 BB
Hero (BB): 101.7 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T J

BTN raises to 2.2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 10.5 BB, BTN calls 8.3 BB

Flop: (21.5 BB, 2 players) A A Q
Hero bets 5.5 BB, BTN calls 5.5 BB

Turn: (32.5 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero bets 21 BB, BTN calls 21 BB

River: (74.5 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero bets 64.7 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 64.7 BB

Hero shows T J (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 40%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)
BTN shows A Q (Full House, Aces full of Queens)
(Pre 60%, Flop 100%, Turn 100%)
BTN wins 202.9 BB

And another one that didn't quite go as planned. I think the raise and stackoff here might be OK though.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 103 BB
BB: 188.69 BB
UTG: 45.65 BB
CO: 185.38 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T K

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 4 J 9
SB bets 12 BB, Hero raises to 37 BB, SB raises to 93 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 53 BB and is all-in

Turn: (201 BB, 2 players) 9

River: (201 BB, 2 players) Q

SB shows J J (Full House, Jacks full of Nines)
(Pre 67%, Flop 66%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows T K (Straight, King High)
(Pre 33%, Flop 34%, Turn 0%)
SB wins 199.5 BB

Most of the winning was just thankfully avoiding some of the sick coolers that feel like they've plaguing me at an unfair clip for quite a while. Hopefully those hands can **** off for a while and let me actually win some.

What's the reasoning on raising flop w/ the KTdd?

I think your pool is expanding too, so poker opportunities will prob only get better for you, no need to rush anything.

Congrats on the trip

Reasoning for raising the flop was I have king high and a crap ton of outs, so this seems like a good one. I figured I would have some sets and 2 pair that want to raise, so balancing that out with some high equity bluffs felt natural. Turns out the solver isn't loving the play and basically has no raising range on this flop. It looks like that's sort of a trend as the IP defender in 3-bet pots. Knowing what and when to raise flops is a work in progress for me.

I'm actually not sure if pool expansion will be a good thing or not. I'm generally OK with game quality right now, and my understanding is they are some of the softest games to be found. Game availability is not really an issue at the moment. Even if the fish:reg ratio stays the same, it feels like with more regs in the pool they would just swarm the fishier tables more aggressively making good game selection tougher. Also the smaller pool means I play more hands against the same bad regs, so I have a larger % of the pool that I have strong reads on, which I do think at this point is an edge I have.

Glad to see you caught some heat.

I like your vacation logic. I think I'll be implementing this into my family strategy also.

Been mostly a decent week. I'm not sure if I'll do much of a full post. I'll just say, that while I pride myself on not tilting easily, hands like this irritate the **** out of me.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 434.49 BB
Hero (BB): 139.52 BB
UTG: 221.05 BB
MP: 151.81 BB
CO: 179.29 BB
BTN: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 3 BB, Hero raises to 17 BB, UTG calls 13.5 BB, SB calls 13.5 BB

Flop: (51 BB, 3 players) 3 5 K
SB checks, Hero bets 20 BB, UTG calls 20 BB, fold

Turn: (91 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero bets 102.52 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 102.52 BB

River: (296.04 BB, 2 players) 7

Hero shows K A (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 73%, Flop 83%, Turn 7%)
UTG shows 9 K (Two Pair, Kings and Nines)
(Pre 27%, Flop 17%, Turn 93%)
UTG wins 293.04 BB

I've been needing a session like this for a while. This game definitely ****s with your head a lot where one day you think you know what you're doing and the next you feel like it's your first time and everyone is just bullying the guy who has no clue how to play. Thankfully, tonight was one of those nights where I was the shark. Hopefully more to come.

That's fantastic! Also impressive keeping your red line straight!

lol, I don't know why I like looking at the line but it's a morbid curiosity of mine. I don't do anything silly like play a hand just to try and influence the red line, but when I do see it flatten out it definitely brings a smile to my face, even though there's a lot of variance in it. The pots that kill it all tend to look the same. 3-bet pot, flop a little something, defend vs a small bet. Turn enough equity to call a moderately sized turn bet. Get a bad river and fold to a jam after putting in like 50BB. It's not pretty, but I do tend to review those types of hands after the fact, and often in those cases it's usually appropriate to go that deep into your stack and fold, but man it feels gross. None of those last night, instead I got to be on the delivering end of a few of them.

One thing that has changed about redline since I've studied more is that it's not quite the steady decline it used to be. Instead it has long flat stretches like form last night's session, and then some sessions where it nosedives where I play more of the above types of pots. The nice thing is the green line is where I want it.

At least so far my decision to stick to 1/2 and stay true to my thread title has paid off. I'm not gonna lie, I find myself occasionally peeking at the 2/5 games and when I see those fish sitting, I really want to jump back in. If I can continue this heater, it'll probably happen. It's been low volume this month, but mostly positive:



The big dip at the end was two pots that happened simultaneously across 2 tables. The first one was this:

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 119.73 BB
BB: 104.58 BB
Hero (UTG): 129.18 BB
MP: 129.09 BB
CO: 142.05 BB
BTN: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, CO raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 22 BB, CO calls 14 BB

Flop: (45.5 BB, 2 players) Q A 6
Hero bets 11 BB, CO calls 11 BB

Turn: (67.5 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, CO bets 21.78 BB, Hero calls 21.78 BB

River: (111.06 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, CO bets 74.5 BB, Hero calls 74.4 BB and is all-in

CO shows 9 A (Two Pair, Aces and Nines)
(Pre 30%, Flop 11%, Turn 86%)
Hero shows A K (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 70%, Flop 89%, Turn 14%)
CO wins 258.35 BB

I'll take a bigger look at this hand. Any time I flop TPTK in a 4-bet pot and lose, it's going to sting. I'm not sure if I can get away on the river or not. I don't have a huge sample on the villain to know if this is a fold. I'm sure in a solver it's a call but then again we're a bit outside the usual game tree when this hand somehow ends up in his 3-bet and defend vs. 4-bet range. I was significantly more worried about AQ/QQ, or even AA. The 9 felt like a blankety blank.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 131.75 BB
BB: 113.64 BB
UTG: 103.8 BB
MP: 234.44 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 96.05 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K Q

fold, MP calls 1 BB, CO raises to 5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 18 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 13 BB

Flop: (38 BB, 2 players) K 5 3
Hero bets 8.5 BB, CO calls 8.5 BB

Turn: (55 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero bets 25 BB, CO calls 25 BB

River: (105 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, CO bets 48.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 48.5 BB

CO shows K A (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 70%, Flop 83%, Turn 93%)
Hero shows K Q (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 30%, Flop 17%, Turn 7%)
CO wins 200.5 BB


This one is probably harder to get away from. I admittedly am not good at adjusting my preflop ranges vs. non-standard sizings but I'm pretty sure even from a 5x ISO from the CO KQs is a slam dunk 3-bet from the SB. The flop bet seems fine, as does the turn bet. In practice it's probably just best to bomb the river myself and take my medicine, but I'm not sure. It feels like this is a common spot. I have a decent hand on a relatively safe looking board OOP on the turn. I can either overbet shove turn, bet turn very small setting up a largeish river shove, or go with a more geometric bet-size like I did here. I think that one is closer to ideal but I'm honestly not sure. I really should focus my solver study on these 3-bet pots. I'm pretty sure I'm getting stacked here every time vs. AK, but I still want to make sure I'm playing them right.

Of course with poker on the upswing, I'm down a bit on the other gambling. DraftKings is running some big summer promos that involve large wagering requirements and deposit bonuses, and I have not done particularly well there. I've also been getting my ass handed to me on the caesars promos lately. It's Tuesday night and I'm all-in on Fan Duel's dinger Tuesday. As of now I've won 2 bets, which after the free bets (RIP FD Bonus Cash) might put me around even. So hopefully I can bag one or 2 more dingers tonight to come ahead on this weeks promo.