Credit goes to fellow poster starscream1101 for showing me some of the tricks. I knew they were +EV, and had been doing the promo hunting, but he really turned me on to the idea of line shopping as a way to guarantee a profit, and I must say it's well well worth it. To really take full advantage of it you need to have a decent chunk of money spread across a wide range of books so you can jump on the opportunities when they exist.

Adding on to what Koss said because I don't think he mentioned it, there's a difference between a free bet and a risk free bet. I did my best to explain with examples here: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...-play-1794854/

I use excel to calculate EV and bet sizing on these promotions. I recommend rounding to a "neat" number since betting $1456.84 instead of $1500 is weird and a bit of a red flag that you're arbing (not exactly what you're doing but books don't like arbers either).

Thanks. Yall got me going down the rabbit hole now lol

The way I think of it is that poker is my wife. It's my true passion and where I spend most of my time, but it can be a grind at times. The casino gaming and sports betting is my mistress. Just some occasional no-strings-attached fun.

Woah, it's been a while since I've updated.

It's been a busy life October. I was doing a significant basement re-finishing project, and my youngest son had his tonsils removed last week making it tough to focus on much else around here. He's on the mend, and the basement is done, so here's hoping I can get back to my regularly scheduled grinding. I've played a few sessions in the past few weeks though.

My last 6 sessions have all been small losses, but have added up to a decent downswing. The good news is that I hopped on to Bet MGM to take advantage of their 1K risk free bet, and hit on a +260 college football game (I was hedged over at draft kings) so that got me a nice starting roll on the site. My very first hand on the site was at 200NL. For some reason the flop wasn't coming in right on the hand histories my first day, but it went something like this. 200NL, folds to SB who opens to $6, I call with 87 of clubs. Flop AQ3 all clubs. We get in a flop raising war and I end up all-in vs. QQ and he binks the boat. Then I lose another and an orbit later with 99 AIPF for about $100 vs. 55 that flops a set. Welcome to the site I guess. Overall I like the Stars software better but Bet MGM seems palatable. They have a much larger cap on their monthly rakeback but I'm not sure what % it calculates out to since I haven't been able to find their formula yet. I can tell it's a lower % than Stars, but without the $110 montly cap.

I've been running pretty good with casino promos and sports betting still, so that's good. I've laid out a plan to hit up new user promotions at 7 other sportsbooks/casinos that I haven't done yet, at one every 2 weeks for 14 weeks, so that will keep me somewhat busy.

As for poker I'm still trying to alternate 1 night of play 1 night of hand reviews & study. That seems to be working for me. I've got a new computer on the way which should be able to handle more of the complex solves in GTO+. I'm still considering spending a couple grand on coaching, but that will probably wait until next year sometime after I'm done crushing all the various sportsbooks out there.

I've played ~23k hands this month on betmgm raking $4.2k and am getting back $400 from the grind promo. Plus I convert the ipoker reward points into poker bonuses which clear pretty quickly for me.

Overall at my volume betmgm is roughly 10% rakeback whereas stars is something like 3-4%.

This month is in the books. I knew I had a losing month but overall it doesn't look as bad as I thought. I ran pretty bad in big pots, so I'll take it.



I am playing more on BetMGM now and will continue to try and put more volume there to learn the player pool.

I knew refocusing some time on study would cut into my play time, but this was an exceptionally slow month with the previously mentioned life responsibilities. Outside of the holidays I'm hoping for some good November volume and some rungood.

I do find the sports/casino promo chasing side hustle to cut into my poker time a bit. That has just been a much more profitable venture and one I plan on making sure I max out my EV on. But I still want to be able to consistently beat these 500NL games I am enjoying. I'm continuing my solver work which I think is helping.

I've got a new PC setup. It's got more RAM, better processor, so it's more solver friendly. I've also put in a couple good sessions with it. The first one was up almost 3 buyins at 500NL. The second one I ended up down 2 buyins, but was running almost 4 BI's below AIEV, so at least mentally I can put that one in the win column. Mostly standard stuff, losing a few 50/50's and 70/30's (from both sides).

There was one big punt that I'll share for kicks, why not.

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 296.23 BB
Hero (BB): 134.79 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 212.15 BB
BTN: 58.96 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K T

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, SB raises to 25 BB, Hero raises to 56 BB, SB raises to 296.23 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 78.79 BB and is all-in

Flop: (269.58 BB, 2 players) 9 7 5

Turn: (269.58 BB, 2 players) J

River: (269.58 BB, 2 players) 4

SB shows K A (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 71%, Flop 84%, Turn 75%)
Hero shows K T (High Card, King)
(Pre 29%, Flop 16%, Turn 25%)
SB wins 268.98 BB

So I do have some preflop charts that shows KTs as a GTO 5-bet SB vs. BB. It obviously didn't work here. The villain isn't a guy I'm trying to play GTO against, as he has some fishy tendencies. He's a bit loose and leans aggressive. At least preflop I figured he'd have some air here when he 4!.

I think the 3! is pretty standard here. Normally at 100BB depth any 5! is a shove, and I still think if I decide to 5! here shove should have been the size, despite stack depth. But I think at this depth vs. this 4! size, and against this opponent in particular, I should either fold or call the 4!. Once he ripped it I was getting about 3:1 and just bent over and took it, and even that may have been a mistake here. Live and learn.

I'm still trying to stick to my routine of alternating sessions of play and hand review. I played a marathon session (for me anyways) of 4+ hours yesterday 3-tabling, racking up over 1100 hands, and 15 of them I have flagged for a deep dive review. I doubt I will get through them all.

The slight change I'm making is that I think I'm going to step down to 3-tabling. While I can normally handle 4 to 6 tables OK there are still some spots where I f up because I got distracted. It's not often, but it's enough that I don't like the feeling. Especially since I am going to try and stick to 500NL as my main game now. I've gotten comfortable enough with it, and feel I have an edge on the field there, at least for now. So as long as I can find 3 good 500NL tables, that's probably all I will play.

So my focus for the near future is going to be to play more 500NL, and focus on winrate over volume. My off nights will be spent reviewing hands and crunching solves.

This is going to be a bit of a BBV update, so maybe skip this one if you are as annoyed by other people's bad beat stories as I am. Last night was a weird session. I had a pretty big whale on my right, who just absolutely crushed me. It's not that any one hand was bad, but the culmination of everything. He was limping or min-raising over 50% of hands. I would isolate him with near impunity. I would proceed to miss every single flop against him, and he would hit. Every time. Or I would hit and he would outdraw me. The guy just absolutely did not fold. So without a good hand I would usually take an equity denial stab and then just check it down. Reviewing some hands maybe I folded a bit too much, but he always had it when he bet. He was insanely passive overall. Maybe I made too many folds. I'm not saying I played great against him, but it was definitely the most tilted I've been in a while.

Here's a few samples of the weirdness I was dealing with and how bad I ran against it.

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 206.42 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 251.36 BB
BB: 108.59 BB
UTG: 100.9 BB
MP: 211.08 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A 2

fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) 9 A 4
CO checks, Hero bets 5.25 BB, CO calls 5.25 BB

Turn: (27 BB, 2 players) Q
CO checks, Hero checks

River: (27 BB, 2 players) 3
CO bets 13.2 BB, Hero calls 13.2 BB

CO shows 3 4 (Two Pair, Fours and Threes)
(Pre 40%, Flop 18%, Turn 11%)
Hero mucks A 2 (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 60%, Flop 82%, Turn 89%)
CO wins 52.79 BB


PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 172.71 BB
Hero (CO): 131.44 BB
BTN: 109.74 BB
SB: 114.19 BB
BB: 149.24 BB
UTG: 117.89 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2 A

fold, MP calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (8.5 BB, 2 players) 2 4 3
MP checks, Hero bets 2.67 BB, MP calls 2.67 BB

Turn: (13.83 BB, 2 players) 6
MP checks, Hero checks

River: (13.83 BB, 2 players) 7
MP checks, Hero checks

MP shows 3 Q (One Pair, Threes)
(Pre 38%, Flop 66%, Turn 84%)
Hero mucks 2 A (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 62%, Flop 34%, Turn 16%)
MP wins 13.23 BB

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 132.07 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 112.41 BB
BTN: 181.77 BB
SB: 167.18 BB
BB: 104.48 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J K

UTG raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 5.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 3.5 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 2 players) T 6 7
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (12.5 BB, 2 players) A
UTG bets 5.95 BB, fold

UTG wins 11.9 BB

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 193.62 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 100.5 BB
BB: 144.62 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J J

CO raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, CO raises to 13 BB, Hero calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (27.5 BB, 2 players) Q 9 6
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: (27.5 BB, 2 players) 4
CO bets 13.55 BB, fold

CO wins 27.1 BB

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 130.37 BB
Hero (BTN): 108.97 BB
SB: 126.93 BB
BB: 170.8 BB
UTG: 138.4 BB
MP: 106.3 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 9

fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) 7 A Q
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: (16.5 BB, 2 players) A
CO checks, Hero checks

River: (16.5 BB, 2 players) J
CO checks, Hero checks

CO shows 5 J (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 32%, Flop 44%, Turn 91%)
Hero mucks 9 9 (Two Pair, Aces and Nines)
(Pre 68%, Flop 56%, Turn 9%)
CO wins 15.9 BB

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 148.88 BB
Hero (MP): 102.2 BB
CO: 113.53 BB
BTN: 148.6 BB
SB: 153.4 BB
BB: 109.3 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

UTG raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) 5 Q Q
UTG checks, Hero bets 5.25 BB, UTG calls 5.25 BB

Turn: (27 BB, 2 players) T
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: (27 BB, 2 players) 6
UTG checks, Hero checks

UTG shows 3 5 (Two Pair, Queens and Fives)
(Pre 36%, Flop 71%, Turn 70%)
Hero mucks A K (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 64%, Flop 29%, Turn 30%)
UTG wins 26.4 BB

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 229.26 BB
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
MP: 255.88 BB
CO: 107.09 BB
BTN: 77.48 BB
SB: 232.9 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A Q

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 4 K 6
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (5.5 BB, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (5.5 BB, 2 players) T
BB checks, Hero checks

BB shows 8 6 (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Pre 37%, Flop 76%, Turn 86%)
Hero mucks A Q (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 63%, Flop 24%, Turn 14%)
BB wins 5.22 BB

Nothing all that interesting by itself, just an overall very strange session. I've been running sort of bad lately. Hoping for a good turn to close out the year here soon.

I've had a couple really good sessions lately. I needed the confidence boost. I have also cancelled my subscription to RedChip. I liked what they had to offer but felt like I had gotten all I was going to get out of it. I've joined Upswing and definitely think some of their content is what I was missing. I'm continuing to mostly play 2/5 when the games are good, which is most of the time thankfully. Here's my results YTD. I'm a winner at every stake, although some of that at 1/2 was due to some rungood. I'm not thrilled that I'm basically breakeven at 100NL and 200NL, but for the most part I'm not concerned about the money. My primary goal is to just play in good games and within my still aggressive bankroll. If I hit a bad dowsnwing at 2/5 I'll have to step down, but so far so good.

I had a pretty good week last week, clearing about 5BI's at 2/5. Most of it came in one session with a monster whale who in a span of about 150 hands bought in, won 5x his buyin, then gave it all back. A decent chunk of it was to me. I got to deliver the finishing blow when we GII on a T97r flop when I had QQ and he had 65o and I held. As much as I am embracing the grind and trying to squeeze every penny out of every spot against tough opponents, sometimes it's nice to just have a deepstacked whale punting chips.

On the penny squeezing side, I'm taking on a project. I'm trying to use the solver to come up with a simplified GTO strategy based on some heuristics. I'm running lots of solves in common spots with common ranges and trying to come up with some standard solver approved lines for the spots. One thing I've been back and forth with on the solver is whether I should be studying specific hands I've played or just generic spots. While I think the specific hands is good, sometimes it feels a bit too specific. I learn how to play the hand but am not sure I am retaining it and applying it in similar spots later. So in this case I'm looking to run a sample of different textured flops, and trying to find which spots are range bets, which call for larger sizings and more range splitting, etc. It needs to be simple enough that it can be retained and implemented. Maybe GTO poker doesn't work this way and I'm spinning my wheels, I'm not sure. But worst case is I learn a bit along the way.

I'm still studying through the Upswing lab as well. There's good stuff in there for sure. I'm also constantly working on my exploitative game. Specifically constantly looking for useable HUD stats and ways they can be exploited. I'm hoping Upswing is helpful there. I just feel like a lot of GTO training out there is more theoretical. I like the theoretical side of poker, but at the end of the day it needs to be applied on the felt, and sometimes there's a disconnect there. I'm going to try and work on that.

On the fun side of things I've been on a hot streak with the gaming/sports betting side. I just cleared nearly 4K in a slot promo. It's been a very swingy year, but I'm up now, and continuing to chase those sweet sweet promos out there. I do need to be a bit more careful about some of the higher risk of ruin challenges though. Bankroll management is very important, and that's not always my strong suit.

Wow it's been a while since my last update. Poker has been still more breakeven. I'm winning a bit at 500NL, but struggling to keep my WR above water at 200NL. I want to believe it's a mix of run bad at 200NL and run good at 500NL. I'm not sure I'm a 5bb/100 500NL player, nor do I believe I'm a -1bb/100 player at 200NL. I'd be happy somewhere in the middle on both.

I've been continuing to learn through upswing, going through their modules on GTO play and database analysis, and there's some good stuff in there. I still think I just need to be doing a lot more off table work on my own analyzing hands and common spots trying to find the right lines, and I'll admit I've been off in that regard. It's hard to not play when I've got deposit bonuses and nice rakeback bonuses that need clearing. I have to choose the right balance between study and play, a common theme of the last year in this thread. 50/50 seemed like I just wasn't playing enough. 2 nights per week study maybe?

As for another reason why I haven't been playing quite as much is I had a nice VIP challenge from draftkings this weekend. It was to bet 1 million (holy **** that seemed crazy) on casino games for roughly $9500 in winnings that trickle in at different milestones. The expected loss on 1 million of blackjack played at basic strategy is only $4000 (I can sort of understand why Vegas switched to 6:5). I wanted to try a new system for this. I would start out at $25/hand, go to $50 on a win, then go to $100 on a win, and stay at $100 until I hit two losses in a row. My hope was that this might absorb some of the worst variance when you lose like 15 hands in a row, but keep my at the higher bet limit on a nice winstreak. Long story short that was a stupid idea. The variance still sucked, and it just made the whole thing take too long, and it wasn't long before I switched to $100/hand. At the end of the challenge I was down $13K. I got the $9500 in incentives, an additional $500 in crowns, and then the icing on the cake was I will get $2K from the December leaderboard. So after all that I'm down $1K.

I've done some of their high volume thin margin challenges before, usually to similar results, although occasionally I've gotten a nice score. I sort of told myself I wasn't going to automatically do these anymore, as I'm not thrilled with the time commitment it takes to play that much outside of crazy per hand bet sizes, nor the potential bankroll crushing swings at $100/hand. But this one had a bit more in raw EV than some of their other ones, and I wanted to see how my dumbass betting system would hold up. Not well. On the plus side I hit Onyx status in their rewards program. I'm not sure it really matters that much, but it's kind of neat.

I got the same one but I skipped it. Not worth it to me risking a bottom 5% run even at $50/hand, which would still take 25 hours or so.

There's no reason to do anything but flat bet. Each hand is independent.

I think I'm pushing almost 1000 hands an hour on their software, but still that's a hell of a commitment. Trying to do it at anything less than $100/hand sounds miserable time wise. My thought with varying bet sizes is that if I'm on the negative side of variance it may make it sting a bit less, since lowered bet sizing is going to have a big impact on how bad a bottom 5% run is. But if it's a run good situation, you could potentially end up on the higher side. My thought was it may shift the bell curve to a non-normal distribution, with a fatter chunk on the negative side, but a smaller but longer tail heading out on the positive side. I'm not sure if it actually works that way, or you just get a normal distribution around whatever your average bet size is. Either way it was pretty miserable since not only does it really increase the # of hands, it also tanks hand/hr when you have to keep changing bet size. The double bet button is nice, but since there is no 1/2 bet button that sort of kills it.

I did find this website that has a nice variance calculator.

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc.htm

It looks like when all earnings are considered I had about a 75% chance of turning some profit, with 1 standard deviation on the positive side being + 19K (would've been freaking awesome).

I'll probably run this calculator before I do these. My guess is that I'll want about a 65% profit chance before diving in.

I figure I'll go over the financial details in a year end post, but I did just book this trip for May, so that's pretty cool. Flights & Hotels are locked in. Yeehaw. Will be paid for completely with gambling winnings.

I did it two weekends in a row. The promo deal wasn't as good this time around. $5K in DK $ + a $5K Freebet, which is messy to convert at that amount. But they had a crowns boost going and a couple leaderboards, so there was some additional bonus money. Results were much more what I was looking for. I was actually up about $4300 + $5K, +$5K freebet, then another $1300 or so in crowns and leaderboard wins. It was a bit of a rollercoaster. I started off down about $4K early on. Then a massive comeback to up about $7K. Then back down to even. Towards the end it was looking like I might break even before the bonus. Then I went on a nice $4K run right at the end to end it up a bunch. Blackjack is swingy. I'm not sure I have the stomach to handle these swings, I'm just thankful I haven't had the true bankroll altering levels of them.

I'm hoping to get back to more poker soon with some good christmas break games. I've been a mix of busy and sick. But I'm starting to feel well enough to get back to grinding. Today is my last day of work for 2 weeks. We'll see what kind of volume I can push over this time frame, and hopefully to end the year with a strong push.

Not bad. My poker winnings for the year per PT4 ended up at $4130.35 (with a final 12/28 session of a $1060 loss). My volume was only 118k hands, but I am playing up to 500NL, so it's hard to call this year anything but a success. There's more in poker related winnings there as well due to rakeback and deposit bonuses.

I didn't hit my volume stretch goal but was happy with how often I played and my ability to 4-table. I felt like I didn't turn down many opportunities to play because I just didn't feel like it. If anything I was trying to be more balanced with play vs. study towards the end of the year, opting for more study time.

The only negative would be my recent results at 100 & 200NL. I started off at those stakes running hot, which is how I moved up through them quickly. But since I got to 500NL my results at 100/200 have fallen off. While I know I have a lot more to learn, I do feel like I'm running bad (not just all-in EV). It feels like I'm on the wrong side of coolers way more often than my fair share. I'm not too worried if that's true as of yet. My plan is just stay the course and move down if the losing continues.

Some graphs:
2021 results:


2021 in BB.


2021 in $$



And now for the fun part. As I talked about plenty here I got into some casino and sportsbook bonus chasing. I knew a little about these things heading into the year, just knowing basic EV and house edge stuff and could calculate if a bet is +EV or not. Sort of the same with sports. But I had no idea what all was out there. Some time in April or May I saw a post about a bet $20,000 on blackjack on DraftKings to get $2K promo, and when I saw how much that EV was, I had to get in on it. I never looked back. Special thanks to posters starscream1101 for showing me some tricks to maximizing and guaranteeing profits on sportsbook promos, and browni3141 for some tips and tricks towards clearing casino bonuses. With the help of their advice, I have made a grand total gambling this year (sports/casino/poker combined) of $62,041.29. An absolutely insane number I never thought was possible. While I am sure that will not be achievable in 2022, I plan on grinding promos as long as they are avaialble. There are still about 4 sites I haven't hit the initial sign on bonuses for yet.

With that in mind, off to 2022.

My goals for the year:
Poker: 100k in volume at 100NL+. Win at 4bb/100
Poker Study: Complete the upswing lab and also run sim solves for all types of ranges and flops to develop some quick and easy GTO solutions I can memorize for common spots.
Casino & Sports: No set financial goals, but continue to hit all promos, and avoid too much -EV sports betting (I will still hit superbowl props and Lions season props). I can't really put a number to this but I'll know if I did well.
Other stuff: Since the pandemic has started I haven't been to a gym, and it's starting to show. Since I am not sure if and when we will unmask at gyms, the wife and I have used some of the above winnings to recreate our home gym with most of the equipment we were using anyways. So I want to get back to lifting at least 3 days per week. Should be doable.

Grats on the fantastic year! I had no idea this year would be so wild financially for us Michigan folks when the sportsbooks / online casinos started opening. You and browni3141 definitely helped teach me a few things about EV on some of these bonuses as well. Specifically, the PSMI daily blackjack insurance which I was able to apply the concepts to other promos. Can honestly say, I almost hate blackjack now...I've played so much. It's much appreciated though

Looking forward to killing these casino / sportsbook promos for 2022 as long as they last!

I still sort of like blackjack only because it keeps my brain occupied and I can do it on my phone as I'm sort of wandering around the house doing other stuff, something I can't do while I grind poker. Looking back at the yearly results, I definitely don't feel as bad about spending less time on poker and more on casino/sports given the overall results. I'd still like poker to be a successful side hustle. If $5Kish per year is about my cap, I can live with that. But as long as I have the skills knowledge time and will to take on the +EV promos, I'm going to go for every dime that's out there.

This is going to be a bit of a long post. I’m in the worst downswing I’ve experienced as a player. In my last 6 sessions I am down 20 buyins, including an 8 buyin ass whooping. Overall the downswing is at around 30 buyins. It’s been a never ending streak of being on the wrong side of beats and coolers. This is probably double my worst ever downswing. I am going to do something I don’t usually do, which is go through every hand in the last 6 sessions where I lost more than 50bb. Normally I just review hands that felt unique and interesting, and most coolers aren’t that. But I figure this is a big and sudden enough swing that it warrants some special consideration.

My updated graph:



I'll post my thoughts after each hand.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 197.63 BB
SB: 79.02 BB
BB: 270.72 BB
UTG: 119.18 BB
Hero (MP): 113.51 BB
CO: 179.99 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN raises to 8.5 BB, fold, BB raises to 28.5 BB, Hero raises to 113.51 BB and is all-in, fold, BB calls 85.01 BB

Flop: (236.01 BB, 2 players) J Q 2

Turn: (236.01 BB, 2 players) T

River: (236.01 BB, 2 players) T

BB shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 82%, Flop 86%, Turn 86%)
Hero shows K K (Two Pair, Kings and Tens)
(Pre 18%, Flop 14%, Turn 14%)
BB wins 234.51 BB

Here we go, hand 1 is of course the classic cooler. I debated even bothering with these hands, but I’m sticking with the formula regardless. It was a 100bb loss, it goes in. Getting cold 4-bet is never great, but I have kings, and I don’t think this is a spot to flat them, if ever. The stack goes in.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 45.55 BB
CO: 148.57 BB
BTN: 102.97 BB
Hero (SB): 104.5 BB
BB: 138.38 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, CO raises to 2.2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, CO calls 7.8 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) J 2 8
Hero bets 7.5 BB, CO raises to 17.99 BB, Hero calls 10.49 BB

Turn: (56.97 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, CO bets 16.64 BB, Hero calls 16.64 BB

River: (90.25 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, CO bets 103.94 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 59.88 BB and is all-in

CO shows 2 2 (Three of a Kind, Twos)
(Pre 19%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows K K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 81%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
CO wins 208.5 BB

Hand 2. Check raised on a draw heavy board and the draws brick out. I’ll run this through a solver later but even with flush draw blockers I just don’t see this combo ever being a fold.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 288.95 BB
CO: 127.83 BB
BTN: 262.85 BB
SB: 113.27 BB
Hero (BB): 101.72 BB
UTG: 148.38 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

UTG raises to 2.2 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.7 BB, Hero raises to 12.5 BB, UTG calls 10.3 BB, fold

Flop: (27.2 BB, 2 players) 2 7 T
Hero bets 8.53 BB, UTG raises to 29.97 BB, Hero calls 21.45 BB

Turn: (87.14 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: (87.14 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 28.26 BB, UTG raises to 105.91 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 30.99 BB and is all-in

UTG shows Q A (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 32%, Flop 43%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows K K (Flush, King High)
(Pre 68%, Flop 57%, Turn 0%)
UTG wins 204.13 BB

This one is another for the solver. Most of the money goes in pre and on the flop though. I feel like I played it well even though on the river I hated it. I don’t *think* I can get away from it getting like 6 to 1 but this is a **** spot because it’s way underbluffed and what else can he really have. He sort of got me with his check back on the turn, I’ll admit, I didn’t see the made flush coming, and I suspected he’d bed the Ad on the river so I credited him a bit much for bluffs.


PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 247.63 BB
BTN: 100 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 112.41 BB
UTG: 181.61 BB
MP: 100 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3 A

fold, fold, CO calls 1 BB, fold, Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB checks

Flop: (3 BB, 3 players) 5 Q 4
Hero bets 1.88 BB, fold, CO raises to 8.49 BB, Hero raises to 21.58 BB, CO calls 13.09 BB

Turn: (46.16 BB, 2 players) J
Hero bets 77.42 BB and is all-in, CO calls 77.42 BB

River: (201 BB, 2 players) 5

Hero shows 3 A (One Pair, Fives)
(Pre 61%, Flop 54%, Turn 34%)
CO shows 8 Q (Two Pair, Queens and Fives)
(Pre 39%, Flop 46%, Turn 66%)
CO wins 199.5 BB

12+ outs and I went apeshit on this one. I think it’s fine, but maybe not optimal. Maybe some of these hands do deserve a second look through the solver. I’m pretty sure the villain in question got some special notes after this hand.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 100 BB
Hero (MP): 101.3 BB
CO: 221.2 BB
BTN: 134.64 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN raises to 8.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 21 BB, BTN calls 12.5 BB

Flop: (43.5 BB, 2 players) T 2 5
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (43.5 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, BTN bets 21 BB, Hero calls 21 BB

River: (85.5 BB, 2 players) A
Hero checks, BTN bets 92.64 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 59.3 BB and is all-in

BTN shows K Q (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 29%, Flop 18%, Turn 27%)
Hero shows A K (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 71%, Flop 82%, Turn 73%)
BTN wins 202.6 BB

Maybe this one is the most misplayed, not sure. I think I should bet this flop even though flops like this are what I’ve come to expect with AKs. Villain in question is the type to show up with weird hands and bluffs.


PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 100 BB
UTG: 122.56 BB
MP: 245.38 BB
CO: 136.53 BB
BTN: 137.27 BB
Hero (SB): 100.5 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, CO raises to 10.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 22.5 BB, fold, fold, CO raises to 71.5 BB, Hero raises to 100.5 BB and is all-in, CO calls 29 BB

Flop: (205 BB, 2 players) 4 6 T

Turn: (205 BB, 2 players) 7

River: (205 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero shows K A (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 7%, Flop 6%, Turn 0%)
CO shows A A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 93%, Flop 94%, Turn 100%)
CO wins 203.5 BB

Pretty standard preflop spot, not much to see here.


PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 117.86 BB
BTN: 210.9 BB
SB: 157.32 BB
BB: 102.7 BB
UTG: 93.22 BB
Hero (MP): 150.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 3 K 2
SB bets 13 BB, Hero calls 13 BB

Turn: (47 BB, 2 players) 3
SB checks, Hero bets 39 BB, SB raises to 91 BB, fold

SB wins 123.5 BB

Villain in this one is pretty nitty, hence the just flat preflop, although this is a mixing raise/call spot with AK anyways. Flop seems standard. Turn I think bet is right but I’ll double check. It can’t be that bad. When he bombs the absoulte best I can hope for is a chop but I don’t think so. Feels like AA/KK all the way, possibly A3s. I think fold is OK.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 61.07 BB
BB: 320.41 BB
UTG: 102.5 BB
MP: 135.57 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 101 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q A

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 6.5 BB, UTG calls 5 BB

Flop: (23 BB, 3 players) 2 A 5
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 8 BB, BB calls 8 BB, UTG calls 8 BB

Turn: (47 BB, 3 players) Q
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 23 BB, BB calls 23 BB, UTG raises to 87 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 61.5 BB and is all-in, BB calls 64 BB

River: (305.5 BB, 3 players) 4

BB shows Q A (Two Pair, Aces and Queens)

Main Pot [300.5 BB]: (Pre 19%, Flop 1%, Turn 2%)
Side Pot#1 [5 BB]: (Pre 46%, Flop 2%, Turn 9%)

UTG shows 5 5 (Three of a Kind, Fives)

Main Pot [300.5 BB]: (Pre 61%, Flop 98%, Turn 95%)
Side Pot#1 [5 BB]: (Pre 54%, Flop 98%, Turn 91%)

Hero shows Q A (Two Pair, Aces and Queens)

Main Pot [300.5 BB]: (Pre 20%, Flop 1%, Turn 2%)

UTG wins 304 BB

BB here is a megadonk, can show up with almost any 2. UTG is at least a decent player. This is probably the bottom of my calling range, as I think he can have some A5/A2s and some combo draws. I didn’t think he had 22 or 34s in his range, so I’m losing to 3 combos. Went with it.

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 103.6 BB
BB: 126.98 BB
UTG: 184.74 BB
CO: 202.08 BB
BTN: 106.92 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN raises to 8.5 BB, Hero raises to 22 BB, fold, UTG raises to 184.74 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 81.6 BB and is all-in

Flop: (216.7 BB, 2 players) 6 2 5

Turn: (216.7 BB, 2 players) J

River: (216.7 BB, 2 players) 7

Hero shows K K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 19%, Flop 5%, Turn 2%)
UTG shows A A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 81%, Flop 95%, Turn 98%)
UTG wins 216.1 BB

Buggits did this one to me.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 112.28 BB
Hero (BB): 130.91 BB
UTG: 86.75 BB
MP: 98.5 BB
CO: 264.95 BB
BTN: 93.82 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, SB raises to 11.5 BB, Hero raises to 24 BB, fold, SB raises to 112.28 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 88.28 BB

Flop: (227.56 BB, 2 players) 5 4 7

Turn: (227.56 BB, 2 players) 5

River: (227.56 BB, 2 players) 3

Hero shows K A (One Pair, Fives)
(Pre 7%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)
SB shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Fives)
(Pre 93%, Flop 97%, Turn 100%)
SB wins 226.06 BB

AK vs AA BvB, seems typical.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 226.06 BB
Hero (MP): 101 BB
CO: 92.75 BB
BTN: 97 BB
SB: 262.45 BB
BB: 87.82 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 5 3 8
BB checks, Hero bets 2.6 BB, BB calls 2.6 BB

Turn: (10.69 BB, 2 players) T
BB checks, Hero bets 6.73 BB, BB calls 6.73 BB

River: (24.15 BB, 2 players) A
BB bets 22.81 BB, Hero raises to 89.18 BB and is all-in, BB calls 53.19 BB and is all-in

BB shows 2 4 (Straight, Five High)
(Pre 18%, Flop 27%, Turn 14%)
Hero shows A A (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 82%, Flop 73%, Turn 86%)
Hero wins 13.18 BB
BB wins 174.64 BB


This one was annoying. Figured this is a slowplayed set like 95%. Villain is a fish and might have every Ax two pair combo still available here. I stand by my river shove, I don’t think there’s anyway just flatting the 2nd nuts is good.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 138.65 BB
CO: 195.05 BB
BTN: 137.79 BB
SB: 200.94 BB
Hero (BB): 121.46 BB
UTG: 113.93 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K J

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 3 J 8
Hero checks, BTN bets 1.73 BB, Hero calls 1.73 BB

Turn: (8.96 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, BTN bets 8.47 BB, Hero raises to 25.4 BB, BTN raises to 133.56 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 91.83 BB and is all-in

River: (243.41 BB, 2 players) 6

Hero shows K J (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks)
(Pre 46%, Flop 5%, Turn 9%)
BTN shows 8 8 (Three of a Kind, Eights)
(Pre 54%, Flop 95%, Turn 91%)
BTN wins 16.34 BB
BTN wins 241.91 BB

I don’t *think* I can ever fold top 2 on this board without a massive read. Solver time for this hand I guess.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100 BB
BB: 203.98 BB
UTG: 104 BB
MP: 124.78 BB
Hero (CO): 101.5 BB
BTN: 155.39 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T T

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 8 6 A
MP checks, Hero bets 6.08 BB, MP calls 6.08 BB

Turn: (31.65 BB, 2 players) T
MP checks, Hero bets 26 BB, MP raises to 74 BB, Hero raises to 86.43 BB and is all-in, MP calls 12.43 BB

River: (204.5 BB, 2 players) 8

MP shows A A (Full House, Aces full of Eights)
(Pre 81%, Flop 98%, Turn 98%)
Hero shows T T (Full House, Tens full of Eights)
(Pre 19%, Flop 2%, Turn 2%)
MP wins 203 BB

Flop c-bet is maybe questionable, it feels like a mixed or full range bet spot. Obviously never folding.
PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 135.07 BB
MP: 203.96 BB
CO: 127.97 BB
BTN: 238.23 BB
Hero (SB): 102.64 BB
BB: 86.46 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 12.5 BB, BB calls 11.5 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (30 BB, 2 players) 5 T A
Hero bets 13 BB, BB raises to 67.5 BB, Hero raises to 90.14 BB and is all-in, BB calls 6.46 BB and is all-in

Turn: (177.91 BB, 2 players) 7

River: (177.91 BB, 2 players) Q

BB shows Q A (Two Pair, Aces and Queens)
(Pre 26%, Flop 13%, Turn 7%)
Hero shows K A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 74%, Flop 87%, Turn 93%)
Hero wins 16.19 BB
BB wins 176.41 BB

Villain is a whale who can have all sorts of garbage here. I beat him into the pot. Nothing really interesting.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 139.42 BB
MP: 107.03 BB
CO: 114.79 BB
BTN: 163.51 BB
Hero (SB): 144.94 BB
BB: 106.68 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6 6

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 8 4 T
Hero bets 3 BB, BB calls 3 BB

Turn: (12 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 8 BB, BB calls 8 BB

River: (28 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero bets 25 BB, BB raises to 50 BB, Hero calls 25 BB

BB shows 7 9 (Straight, Ten High)
(Pre 46%, Flop 46%, Turn 77%)
Hero mucks 6 6 (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 54%, Flop 54%, Turn 23%)
BB wins 126.5 BB

Lots of rivered 2 pair for this particular villain to have. I don’t think I can fold a set to the minraise, but maybe I should with the all the straights getting there.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 251.23 BB
UTG: 100 BB
CO: 121.2 BB
BTN: 90.9 BB
Hero (SB): 112.86 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K Q

fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, CO calls 9 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) 4 A 8
Hero bets 7.84 BB, CO calls 7.84 BB

Turn: (40.68 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (40.68 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, CO bets 39.18 BB, Hero calls 39.18 BB

CO shows 4 4 (Three of a Kind, Fours)
(Pre 50%, Flop 96%, Turn 100%)
Hero mucks K Q (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 50%, Flop 4%, Turn 0%)
CO wins 117.54 BB

Probably one of the lighter calls during the run. This particular villain is crazy and can have any 2. Against almost any other player I’m snap folding the river but this guy could easily have T7o as played.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 117.09 BB
BTN: 23.73 BB
SB: 68.3 BB
Hero (BB): 101.5 BB
UTG: 121.65 BB
MP: 73.12 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T 9

UTG raises to 2.25 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.25 BB

Flop: (5 BB, 2 players) J 9 A
Hero checks, UTG bets 2.38 BB, Hero calls 2.38 BB

Turn: (9.75 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, UTG bets 6.95 BB, Hero calls 6.95 BB

River: (23.64 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, UTG bets 16.85 BB, Hero raises to 42 BB, UTG calls 25.16 BB

Hero shows T 9 (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 26%, Flop 5%, Turn 14%)
UTG shows J 9 (Full House, Nines full of Jacks)
(Pre 74%, Flop 95%, Turn 86%)
UTG wins 106.14 BB

Preflop may have been loose here, I’m not well versed on handling smaller opens. I don’t think it’s a huge mistake either way. Flop I think call is fine. Turn gets dicey but 8 outs to a straight and a chance at a disguised trips, plus a T is good sometimes. When I get there, I figure a x/r might look fishy when the draws brick out, and I can snap fold to a jam. I didn’t expect to get called by a boat.


PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 122.77 BB
UTG: 101.5 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 290.93 BB
BTN: 246.74 BB
Hero (SB): 113.55 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J A

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, BTN calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 4 3 A
Hero bets 6.55 BB, BTN calls 6.55 BB

Turn: (34.09 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero bets 16.3 BB, BTN calls 16.3 BB

River: (66.68 BB, 2 players) K
Hero bets 21.5 BB, BTN raises to 102.64 BB, fold

BTN wins 189.32 BB

The player here was on the fishier side. Maybe it was optimistic going for 3 streets here. I debated checking vs betting the river, but I figure with my A I’m blocking a lot of possible flushes so that leaves a lot more 1-pair check backs in his range so I decided to go with the block size to get looked up by worse. When he shoves I’m no good.

PartyGaming - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 221.84 BB
Hero (UTG): 102 BB
MP: 159.67 BB
CO: 134.04 BB
BTN: 44.79 BB
SB: 120.62 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 9.5 BB, SB raises to 26 BB, fold, Hero raises to 102 BB and is all-in, fold, SB calls 76 BB

Flop: (214.5 BB, 2 players) 5 9 8

Turn: (214.5 BB, 2 players) 2

River: (214.5 BB, 2 players) 3

SB shows K K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 82%, Flop 89%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows Q Q (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 18%, Flop 11%, Turn 5%)
SB wins 213.9 BB

Villain in question here is a LAG preflop. I don’t think QQ is ever a fold here.

PartyGaming - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 264.88 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 71.08 BB
MP: 166.96 BB
CO: 38 BB
BTN: 126.62 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 5 BB, UTG calls 4 BB

Flop: (10.5 BB, 2 players) 7 6 9
Hero checks, UTG bets 6.61 BB, Hero calls 6.61 BB

Turn: (23.72 BB, 2 players) A
Hero checks, UTG bets 23.12 BB, Hero calls 23.12 BB

River: (69.97 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, UTG bets 23.12 BB, Hero calls 23.12 BB

UTG shows A 7 (Two Pair, Aces and Sevens)
(Pre 32%, Flop 21%, Turn 75%)
Hero mucks K K (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Pre 68%, Flop 79%, Turn 25%)
UTG wins 115.62 BB

This river call may have been one of my bigger mistakes. I took a passive line because the villain has a tendency to attack when checked to. I’m pretty sure if he hadn’t binked his ace he still bets this hand 3 streets. But entitlement tilt may have influenced my river call.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 106.58 BB
BB: 70.76 BB
UTG: 124.55 BB
MP: 121.11 BB
CO: 159.2 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, BB calls 6.5 BB, UTG raises to 27 BB, Hero calls 19.5 BB, BB raises to 70.76 BB and is all-in, UTG raises to 124.55 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 73 BB and is all-in

Flop: (271.26 BB, 3 players) T 6 8

Turn: (271.26 BB, 3 players) 9

River: (271.26 BB, 3 players) Q

UTG shows A A (One Pair, Aces)

Main Pot [212.78 BB]: (Pre 70%, Flop 72%, Turn 64%)
Side Pot#1 [58.48 BB]: (Pre 93%, Flop 97%, Turn 95%)

Hero shows A K (High Card, Ace)

Main Pot [212.78 BB]: (Pre 6%, Flop 3%, Turn 2%)
Side Pot#1 [58.48 BB]: (Pre 7%, Flop 3%, Turn 5%)

BB shows 6 5 (One Pair, Sixes)

Main Pot [212.78 BB]: (Pre 24%, Flop 26%, Turn 33%)

UTG wins 269.76 BB

I don’t think I can fold AK here. The player in the BB is a massive donk who can shove really really wide here, and the UTG player is good enough to know it. I like the price I’m getting 3 ways here.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 109.98 BB
Hero (UTG): 112.38 BB
MP: 168.28 BB
CO: 95.5 BB
BTN: 80.22 BB
SB: 112.58 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6 6

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (8 BB, 3 players) 6 A Q
BB checks, Hero bets 3.5 BB, BTN calls 3.5 BB, fold

Turn: (15 BB, 2 players) T
Hero bets 10 BB, BTN calls 10 BB

River: (35 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero bets 96.38 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 64.22 BB and is all-in

Hero shows 6 6 (Full House, Sixes full of Queens)
(Pre 50%, Flop 96%, Turn 91%)
BTN shows Q T (Full House, Queens full of Tens)
(Pre 50%, Flop 4%, Turn 9%)
BTN wins 161.94 BB

Another annoying hand. Villain is stations and will have lots of KJ, flushes, Qx, and maybe even some Ax hands that will look me up here, so I went big.

PartyGaming - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 108.56 BB
SB: 166.03 BB
BB: 103.85 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 282.88 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, BTN raises to 7.5 BB, SB calls 7 BB, fold, Hero raises to 25 BB, fold, SB raises to 166.03 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 75 BB and is all-in

Flop: (208.5 BB, 2 players) 3 A 8

Turn: (208.5 BB, 2 players) 7

River: (208.5 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero shows Q Q (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 57%, Flop 13%, Turn 25%)
SB shows A K (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 43%, Flop 87%, Turn 75%)
SB wins 66.03 BB
SB wins 207 BB

Surprisingly this was the only flip in this run.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 63.96 BB
UTG: 56.7 BB
MP: 45.31 BB
CO: 104.55 BB
BTN: 81.5 BB
Hero (SB): 131.61 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, BTN raises to 4.5 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 13.5 BB

Flop: (38 BB, 2 players) 7 T 3
Hero bets 18 BB, BTN calls 18 BB

Turn: (74 BB, 2 players) J
Hero bets 95.61 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 45.5 BB and is all-in

River: (165 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero shows A K (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 71%, Flop 87%, Turn 34%)
BTN shows J K (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 29%, Flop 13%, Turn 66%)
BTN wins 162 BB

Binks a 2 outer on a questionable flop call. I stand by this play, but will probably run it just to be sure.

PartyGaming - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100 BB
BB: 326.84 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 106.73 BB
CO: 68.83 BB
Hero (BTN): 103.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A 5

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, CO calls 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 7.5 BB, CO calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (31.5 BB, 3 players) 5 8 A
MP checks, CO bets 20.6 BB, Hero calls 20.6 BB, fold

Turn: (72.7 BB, 2 players) K
CO checks, Hero bets 48.07 BB, CO calls 38.23 BB and is all-in

River: (149.17 BB, 2 players) 8

Hero shows A 5 (Two Pair, Aces and Eights)
(Pre 31%, Flop 73%, Turn 5%)
CO shows K A (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
(Pre 69%, Flop 27%, Turn 95%)
Hero wins 9.83 BB
CO wins 148.57 BB

Maybe this is a flop raise, but the money is going in one way or another.

So there you have it. A 5300 hand run where I was never on the other side of one of these beats or coolers. On second look It’s possible I botched some of these spots or at least can learn from some of them even if the results don’t change. I’ve definitely heard of players having runs like this but have never experienced one personally myself before.

When action goes something like UTG open, BU 3!, SB 4!, stuff like AKo, QQ are not hands you have to GII with.

Hero has AK

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, CO raises to 10.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 22.5 BB, fold, fold, CO raises to 71.5 BB, Hero raises to 100.5 BB and is all-in, CO calls 29 BB

You say this is standard and nothing to see, but I think it's a fold. In general cold 4-bets get a lot of respect because it's extremely strong to put action in OOP against two uncapped ranges with nothing invested, and hands as strong as QQ, AK will just get flatted a lot by CO.

Hero has QQ

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 9.5 BB, SB raises to 26 BB, fold, Hero raises to 102 BB and is all-in, fold, SB calls 76 BB

This is a straightforward fold unless villain really is extremely aggressive pre. You have uncapped BU behind you and cold 4-betting after an UTG open is just insanely strong. You only have 2.5BB in so you have pretty terrible odds. If you were BU in this hand you could continue as a call but it would still be a marginal spot.

I think you need to work on sizing (literally everyone does, really). The KdK hand where the 4-flush completes on the river I think is just a jam for value. Villain really doesn't have that much Ad in their range and you're not deep enough to be worried about running into the nuts with an allin. You weren't even able to fold to the jam so small sizing just seems to get called by worse, raised by better and you pay off. Of course, if weak hands fold to a jam that would be bad, but I don't think most villain's get away from any diamond and may even hero without a flush.

Don't like sizing on the 66 BvB hand either. This hand should either go small or check. I don't mind c-betting more than optimal as an exploit but big sizing just seems bad with this type of hand. You're just check/folding to a lot of turn bets anyway so you want more hands in his range which you can check down and win against.

The TT on A-high board in 3-bet pot I think could go flop smaller if you don't want to check. 1/3rd isn't really a small enough sizing for a lot of spots especially in 3 and 4-bet pots.

The T9o BB defense hand is really marginal everywhere. Zenith has this as a pure fold pre, although it's less than a .01BB mistake. With literally any read in your favor I'd VPIP this. On a downswing I'd probably avoid these breakeven calls though.

Flop is actually ok to fold against this size, but continuing is ok too. Solver mixes all three options.

Turn should probably be a fold. You only have 2 nut outs and it's still hard to win a big pot on a broadway 4-liner. Feels nitty to fold OESD+pair but none of your equity is very clean. Villain can already have up to 20 combos of straights if he's a tad on the loose side UTG.

River is just a call. Villain has tons of boats and straights in his range and his sizing isn't small.

I find it interesting that none of these were hands you bluffed and got caught. How often are you running bluffs? Combo draws don't count.

Thanks for the feedback. AK vs a 5-bet range tricky, and I'm open to discussion. Against a 5-bet range of QQ+/AK we are often priced in to go with it even though we don't love it. I definitely see good regs in these games getting it in with AK in very similar spots, but I'm open to changing up my play with it. Maybe a more thorough database review of AK aipf is in order.

The QQ hand I had similar thoughts initially that it was too optimistic. The villain is on the laggier side, as was the BTN 3-bettor, but against a nittier players I think I can find a fold. Looking at some solved charts, I'm not seeing a lot of spots where QQ is a fold preflop at 100bb. I've gotten feedback on that hand in particular from other players I trust that it was fine to go with, but I don't think we ever love it.

The KK hand I knew I screwed up when I ended up in a spot on the river where I felt like I had to call. I'll admit to feeling lost at times on how to play 4-flush boards. My old habit is to default to a small sizing with big flushes to try and widen the calling range, and going a bit bigger with bluffs to chase away small and no flush hands. It's not really part of a GTO solution, so that's a huge hole in my knowledge. I'll make it a point to study turn/river play on 4-flushes in the solver.

T9o yeah, that's another one for the solver. Preflop I knew it was really thin, One thing I'm starting to discover is that GTO solutions to spots tend to be stickier IP and tighter OOP than I tend to play at times. I think the turn is one where IP it's a call but OOP a fold. I maybe overestimated the number of 2 pair and 1-pair hands villain has and/or will call with on the river when I raised. Although it's a spot I'm probably going to want a lot of bluff raises, and was hoping that villain may think I'm overbluffing with my line. Perhaps that's also bad thinking.

The 66 BvB I was definitely going for an exploit with larger sizing. Villain in that hand a VPIP of 57%, although I'm not sure if that really warrants the larger sizing or not.

As for bluffs, I definitely run my fair share of bluffs, but am always trying to find more, either as part of a solver solution or an exploit. I've got plenty of hands where I've stacked off with a bluff in my database, just none during this swing. It's possible I'm underbluffing 3 and 4 bet pots. I'll find my bluffs with good equity as you've seen, but might be missing some value by underbluffing those hands.

I'm still learning a lot about sizing and more optimal play. All my online play prior to 2021 was pre black Friday, and in between then and now it's mostly been live games where the play is quite a bit different. I'm working with a solver now and studying through the Upswing Lab. If I felt I was a huge dog in these games I wouldn't play, but I think I'm at least competitive if not a decent winner in them outside of the downswings, despite all my knowledge gaps. If 10NL is the highest stake I can stay a sustained winner at, so be it I will end up there eventually, but as long as I have the bankroll and results that keep me afloat at the bigger games, that's where I kind of want to be.

FWIW, solvers pure fold QQ in the configuration you posted, and have BU fold KK when you jam.

I don't think you're respecting how much stronger a cold 4-bet is than a raise/4-bet, or considering positions and that everyone's````````' ranges get tighter when earlier positions open action. You also just have very little incentive to continue with only 2.5BB invested in the pot. I think the AKo hand is closer to a call than this one.

The hits keep on coming. Dropped another 5 buyins. The only thing that kept it from being worse is I actually stacked a guy tonight when I binked a runner runner flush. Otherwise it was more of the same. I don't really want to do this but feel the need to document it and at least go over it for cathartic reasons.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 105.38 BB
Hero (BB): 108.23 BB
UTG: 114.26 BB
MP: 48.23 BB
CO: 130.85 BB
BTN: 27.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2 2

fold, MP calls 1 BB, CO raises to 4 BB, BTN calls 4 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 4 players) 2 4 6
Hero checks, MP bets 15.68 BB, CO calls 15.68 BB, fold, Hero raises to 44 BB, MP calls 28.33 BB, CO raises to 126.85 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 60.23 BB and is all-in, MP calls 0.23 BB and is all-in

Turn: (269.18 BB, 3 players) J

River: (269.18 BB, 3 players) 5

Hero shows 2 2 (Three of a Kind, Twos)

Main Pot [149.19 BB]: (Pre 28%, Flop 36%, Turn 21%)
Side Pot#1 [119.99 BB]: (Pre 48%, Flop 34%, Turn 20%)

CO shows K J (Flush, King High)

Main Pot [149.19 BB]: (Pre 43%, Flop 64%, Turn 79%)
Side Pot#1 [119.99 BB]: (Pre 52%, Flop 66%, Turn 80%)

MP shows 9 8 (Flush, Nine High)

Main Pot [149.19 BB]: (Pre 29%, Flop 0.0%, Turn 0%)

CO wins 267.68 BB

Sort of nasty. The short stack MP is super wide. The original raiser will have lots of stuff. I know I'm not in great shape when he reshoves but I don't think fold is really on the table. Maybe preflop this is a fold but multiway I'm looking to smash a set and do some damage. Usually it works, not this time though.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 104.88 BB
Hero (CO): 108.18 BB
BTN: 115.14 BB
SB: 289.31 BB
BB: 15 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 9

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, SB raises to 11 BB, fold, Hero calls 8.5 BB

Flop: (23 BB, 2 players) 7 9 5
SB checks, Hero bets 7.21 BB, SB raises to 25 BB, Hero calls 17.79 BB

Turn: (73 BB, 2 players) A
SB bets 18 BB, Hero calls 18 BB

River: (109 BB, 2 players) Q
SB bets 235.31 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 54.18 BB and is all-in

SB shows Q Q (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 81%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
Hero shows 9 9 (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 19%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
SB wins 215.85 BB

This one could have played out many different ways but I feel like they all lead to the same place. I had him in a really bad place until the river.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 104.63 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
BTN: 123.94 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K T

BTN raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) T 7 4
Hero checks, BTN bets 3.66 BB, Hero calls 3.66 BB

Turn: (12.82 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, BTN bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

River: (32.82 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, BTN bets 30 BB, Hero calls 30 BB

BTN shows 4 4 (Three of a Kind, Fours)
(Pre 52%, Flop 94%, Turn 91%)
Hero mucks K T (Two Pair, Kings and Tens)
(Pre 48%, Flop 6%, Turn 9%)
BTN wins 91.82 BB

I have the worst KT combo but I don't see this being a fold.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 109.33 BB
SB: 94.32 BB
BB: 99.78 BB
UTG: 103.98 BB
CO: 104.15 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, SB raises to 7 BB, fold, Hero raises to 20 BB, SB raises to 94.32 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 74.32 BB

Flop: (189.63 BB, 2 players) 9 5 6

Turn: (189.63 BB, 2 players) 9

River: (189.63 BB, 2 players) Q

SB shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Nines)
(Pre 83%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows K K (Two Pair, Kings and Nines)
(Pre 17%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
SB wins 188.13 BB

Yep, this happened again.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 170.18 BB
BTN: 59.57 BB
SB: 128.98 BB
BB: 75.83 BB
UTG: 55.9 BB
Hero (MP): 114.12 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J T

UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 3.5 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 3 players) Q 6 K
UTG checks, Hero bets 7.53 BB, BTN raises to 56.07 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 48.54 BB

Turn: (124.13 BB, 2 players) 5

River: (124.13 BB, 2 players) 8

Players agreed to run it twice.

Turn #2: (124.13 BB, 2 players) 9

River #2: (124.13 BB, 2 players) 4

Hero shows J T (High Card, King)
Board #1 (Pre 43%, Flop 37%, Turn 27%)
(Flush, Queen High)
Board #2 (Pre 44%, Flop 38%, Turn 2%)

BTN shows A 8 (One Pair, Eights)
Board #1 (Pre 57%, Flop 63%, Turn 73%)
(Flush, Ace High)
Board #2 (Pre 56%, Flop 62%, Turn 98%)

BTN wins 61.32 BB
BTN wins 61.32 BB

I don't think this is ever a flop fold, sucks he showed up with what he did.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 93.6 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 89.86 BB
UTG: 58.32 BB
MP: 263.21 BB
CO: 120.62 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q K

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 6 BB, fold, UTG calls 5 BB, fold

Flop: (14 BB, 2 players) 9 K J
Hero bets 8.78 BB, UTG calls 8.78 BB

Turn: (31.56 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero bets 19.84 BB, UTG calls 19.84 BB

River: (71.24 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero bets 46.03 BB, UTG calls 23.7 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Q K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 25%, Flop 27%, Turn 16%)
UTG shows K A (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 75%, Flop 73%, Turn 84%)
UTG wins 117.14 BB

Villain here is playing a VPIP north of 50 and stationing off quite a bit. I maybe got overzealous, but I think he's got a ton of Kx combos that are never folding.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 172.3 BB
BTN: 55.82 BB
SB: 125.29 BB
BB: 65.79 BB
UTG: 33.18 BB
Hero (MP): 131.19 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J J

UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 3.5 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 3 players) 6 8 3
UTG bets 29.68 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 29.68 BB, fold

Turn: (71.36 BB, 2 players) 9

River: (71.36 BB, 2 players) 8

UTG shows 8 7 (Three of a Kind, Eights)
(Pre 18%, Flop 23%, Turn 30%)
Hero shows J J (Two Pair, Jacks and Eights)
(Pre 82%, Flop 77%, Turn 70%)
UTG wins 69.86 BB

I had been chasing this guys stack for a while.