Narrow ranging river spot where I wish I had called instead of folded yesterday. Villain is a solid pro who hero has played hundreds of PLO hours with but not that much NLHE. On the tighter side preflop, very aggressive on rivers. Hero's image is solid LAG.
5/10 NLHE, $1500 effective. Tight ABC rec player limp UTG, villain $50 in MP, stationy rec player call in HJ, hero call in SB with A
J
, limper calls.
Flop K
J
3
, pot $210
Checks around.
Turn K
, pot $210
Checked to villain who bets $150, only hero calls.
River 8
, pot $510
Checked to villain who bets $375, hero folds.
OK so first the main factors to consider here. I'm at the top of my range barring unusual slowplays with trips. It's pretty much impossible for either of us to not have SDV here, s I'm heavily discounting airball bluffs. I suspect villain will cbet Kx+ almost always on the flop, so I'm heavily discounting those hands as well. Thus, I'm mainly facing a range of 6 combos of AJ and 6 combos of QQ. Against that exact range it would be a fold, however I think villain could have some combos of QJ played this way on all streets. While she may not always open offsuit combos preflop or valuebet it on the river, in addition to pot odds + other random hands, I prefer a call in retrospect.