Quote:
Originally Posted by scrolls
Simple spot that I think I know the answer to but would like to hear your thoughts. BTW, this thread motivated me to give PLO a shot (thank you!) and I am now in love with the game, sooooo much more fun than NLHE. I've played mostly 1/2/5 with some 5/10 sprinkled in and I can't believe how soft the games are. I'm still pretty new to the game though, anyway...
1/2/5
Hero ($470) limps 5679 one suit in EP, Villain (covers) limps, another guy makes it $20 and we go 5-way to the flop.
Flop: A85r 1 bdfd ($100)
Hero checks, Villain insta-pots $100, folds around to Hero?
Villain is one of the tighter players in the game (not saying much) but he's still bad. I put his range at sets, wraps, A8, A5, and some 8765, 9865 stuff. I've heard PLO players talk about how important it is to realize your equity, so I feel like calling here and having to c/f a lot of turns is really bad? So are you always just getting it in on the flop in these spots where you're +EV against the guy's range?
In this hand I only have $50 behind after I pot the flop so it's not an issue, but if I had $670 to start the hand instead and potted the flop and he just calls, what do you do on a rainbow Q turn? How about an A turn? In this scenario I'd have $250 behind OTT btw. I've ran into several spots where I pot the flop to commit myself and then the villain ruins my plan by flatting and idk what to do on blanks even though I have 70% of my stack or whatever in the pot. Thank you!
OK here we go.
First off, some preflop notes. I think your preflop play is fine, but just as an fyi you can only flop the nut wrap on 43x (where x is not a 3, 4, 5, 6) or 85x (with some exceptions for x again). If you don't have the nut wrap continuing in a multiway pot can be pretty marginal, even on a rainbow board. On a two-tone board without your suit, sometimes you can't even call 1 bet depending on the action. Of course sometimes you will flop a straight too, but in other words, your hand is deceptively weak as "flopability" is quite key to PLO starting hand strength.
Next, some basic pot odds for getting it in on the flop. You need to commit $450 to win $550, so you need at least $450/($450+$550)=45% equity. Against a set with fairly weak side cards, your equity is almost good enough:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
9s7c6d5s | 40.73% | 334 | 0 |
AdAhQsTh | 59.27% | 486 | 0 |
However of course villain will have other hands in his range. For example if he does this with the small 17 card wrap:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
9s7c6d5s | 70.61% | 488 | 182 |
7h6h4d3s | 29.39% | 150 | 182 |
I will leave it as an exercise to anyone who wants to calculate your equity vs. his range, but suffice it to say jamming here can't possibly be very bad except against the nittiest of nits.
Additionally, if you ever have fold equity and he folds a hand like A5xx, that's a massive, massive win for you, so I would usually jam here.
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If we're deeper and villain only takes this line with sets and never folds, then calling is much better for many reasons.
1) First off, it is quite obviously bad to put money in the pot with no fold equity and the worst hand equity. I hope this needs no more explanation :P
2) You're not forced to c/f your equity on the turn- let's say it's a total rainbow brick, you still can (essentially) profitably call a pot-sized if you have ANY implied odds at all, or if there is ANY chance villain is bluffing, etc.:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
9s7c6d5s | 32.50% | 13 | 0 |
AdAhQsTh | 67.50% | 27 | 0 |
Furthermore take note of this turn card too. It completes a straight draw, so villain might check behind and give you a free card. If he never checks here, well you will sometimes (very rarely, but still) actually have the straight and can c/r, or if he's a typical rec player who doesn't really look at ranges but won't call a river bet with "only a set" on a straight possible board, you can c/r and barrel any non-board pairing river and win (not for the faint of heart).
3) very importantly, a significant portion of the equity in villain's range comes from the turn being an A, 8, or 5. When it comes one of these cards about ~15% of the time, you can fold and save yourself $$$$$ (do NOT make a rookie mistake of getting suckered in if you make trips).
4) If you do make your straight on the turn, most villains will (incorrectly) pay off an almost full pot-sized bet to try to draw to a boat, so you have great implied odds (remember, he needs 33% equity):
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
9s7c6d5s | 77.50% | 31 | 0 |
AdAhQsTh | 22.50% | 9 | 0 |
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OK now to answer your other questions. This is super super basic poker theory/pot odds and also super super important to know- so to answer your question about if you started with $670, you c/r the flop to $400, the pot going into the turn is $900 and you have $250 behind. If villain jams, you have to call $250 to win $1150, and you need $250/($250+$1150) = 18% equity to call, so basically it's a super snap call if you chose to check and villain jammed on a rainbow Q turn (or he was out of position and jammed).
However, if you're going to call any bet here, you might as well jam yourself so you don't let a hand like 7643 get away for free while villain will jam all made hands. To clarify, and this is an important point as I see people make this mistake all the time,
there is basically no downside to just jamming yourself instead of checking on a Q turn with 1 pot-sized bet left or less.
On an A turn, I would probably just /shrug and still just jam it in despite the fact you could be drawing dead, but villain should have jammed all his aces up hands on the flop anyway. If you get villain to fold a hand like 9876 then that's just a massive, massive win.
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EDIT: Also I realize I haven't commented on the "committing yourself so you don't have to fold later". Well honestly it's such total nonsense I'm not sure why people still say it, but I've heard it used so many times- I suspect it's because you can't win a pot by folding. So... the logic is basically saying your hand is so weak you can't even call a turn bet, so therefore you commit your entire stack? Think about how much sense that makes.
Last edited by Aesah; 11-15-2013 at 04:14 AM.