you're really like one of the future isildurs for sure! I'm already a fan.

iirc i think your redline thread gave it away, you have like a super monster-HUD right? is it like, whenever your villain does something, you can just look and see exActly how often he does that ?

I'm Guessing your HUD is not for sale, like masterLJ right ?
if it is well i'd like to know the price

Hehe, thanks


http://www.pokertracker.com/repository/layouts.php

I use the first one. Sick good.

Well thank god for Hold'em. At least made back everything I lost in PLO. Played really well this session actually.

If I hadn't played any PLO at all, I'd be breakeven for the day

How isnt it? Each player had pockets, what do you suppose either are betting with pairs for PF? Or do you really think JJ is a good enough on its own and wouldnt need to improve going on villains position and known range in that position?

oh wow okay, in the thread it sounded like you had built your own iron man thanks a lot for the info, gonna try it out.


wow. no offense but i think you have some work to do, beginner's questions is a nice place

I'm a bit lost on this one. Were you simply playing the specifc opponent here? $200 all-in raise with $27 in the pot? Normal calling range would have you dominated, correct (AK, maybe AJs+, TT+)?

We don't want to 4bet to a normal size because we'd hate if he says "**** it, I'll shove" with KQ, AJ or whatever he now 3bets with.

So, what happens if we ship and he calls?

Well, aginst his calling range we're 37%

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

106,162,848 games 0.114 secs 931,253,052 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.260% 37.06% 00.20% 39341950 214449.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 62.740% 62.54% 00.20% 66392000 214449.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }


That means, when we're called:

63% of the time we lose 200$. EV = 0.63*200 = -126$
37% of the time we win 200$. EV = 0.37*200 = +74$

EV of when he calls is therefore = 74-126 = -52$

So we lose 52$ every time we're called. We win 27$ every time he folds. That means he has to fold like 65% of the time when we shove like this. If we assume he 3bets 20% in this spot, he's gonna fold a whopping 75% of the time (since AQo+,AQs+, TT-AA makes up 4.7% of all hands. So if he 3bets 20% and continues 4.7%, that means he's folding like 75%.), which means we're making money long term. But given how I'm running lately I'm obviously up aginst aces and lose.

Hope that clarifies.

I think it's pretty pessimistic to assume he's always calling us with tt and always folding 88 through 22

Ill analyze these hands for you if u dont mind.

I appreciate the response and the thought process. The assumption that he would 3bet 20% in that spot is what threw me. I figured it would be closer to 10%. This is where it's very helpful to know something about your opponent's game.

I suppose so - I dont play much short-handed NL. Assuming an unknown opponent, however, I wouldn't include those hands in his calling range.

No no no... 2 LAGs aginst each other, to say that he only 3bets 1 out 5 of my SB steals is very conservative, it's more like 1/3 to be honest.

thanks a lot man!

Update, graph, mooaarrrr!!!!

Will post all kinds of graphs when I've played my last session for the month.

Really nice thread and very educational, I play mostly live home games so I can't really use stats to my advantage but this is still very interesting stuff to read. One question I'd like to ask you if you care to answer, given all the statistical info you have on your opponents, which part of the decision making is just mathematical / computational, and which part is it that requires the human component / real intelligence. Or another way to put it, what is it that hinders the creation of sophisticated poker AI?

I wish you good luck and hope that one day you will appear on TV playing in a high stakes cash game and pulling some baller moves

Hmm, hard question. I guess a thing that computers could never learn is the sher physcology behind the game. Like, if I 3bet the same guy tree times, he IS going to 4bet me the next time, no matter what. Computers could never realize this I think.

Also, we humans always make assumptions. Like, he can't have a flush here because he'd prolly cbet a FD on the flop. I don't think a poker AI could really think like this. And even if it was able to think like this, you just figure out how it thinks and counter it. I have a feeling the computer would have a really hard time adapting to that.

Oh well, GRAPH TIME!!


Let's start with the $$ this month. Obviously a horrible month Second losing month this year (first was in February). Even tho the graph says I lost 2.4k, I actually just lost 1k (due to bonuses and winning on ££ tables but losing on $$ tables). Not how I wanted to start this challenge.

$$ won for June:



Big blinds won for June:



$$ won since the start of this challenge:



Big blinds won since the start of this challange:



$$ won lifetime:



Big blinds won lifetime:



As you can see, despite my struggles lately, it's just a minor bump in my lifetime graph.

Oh well, tomorow is the begining of a new month. And belive me when I say: I will not tilt, or at least have the sense to quit when I feel like I'm tilting. I will also quit when I feel there's a murdering session coming up. I will play my very best, because that's everything I can do. I can't control the result, I can't tell if next month is going to be winning or losing. Just focus on playing my A-game at all times.

I'm also getting rakeback in the next few days. It should be around 1.5k, which would put my roll back up to 20k.

Wish me luck!

good luck enjoying the read keep at it

Very interesting lifetime graph. You were in neutral for the first half then had great results. Seems like you're kind of back to neutral.

thats monthly rake, right?

GL

not sure what you mean, this month I've paid like 4k in rake, but I'm getting like 1.5k in rakeback.

Hey, ifs.
you do play on ipoker right?

was woundering wat skin?

Betfred.

Played my first session of the month now. Played decent, but lost like 150$.

Biggest losing hands:

iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $210.00
Hero (BB): $200.00

Hero posts SB $1.00, SB posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has A 7

Hero raises to $6.00, SB raises to $18.00, Hero calls $12.00

Flop: ($36.00, 2 players) 2 Q K
SB checks, Hero bets $22.00, SB calls $22.00

Turn: ($80.00, 2 players) 3
SB checks, Hero bets $42.00, SB raises to $170.00, Hero calls $118.00

River: ($400.00, 2 players) 8

SB shows 3 K (Two Pair, Kings and Threes)
SB wins $399.00



iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $202.00
Hero (BB): $200.00

Hero posts SB $1.00, SB posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has A T

Hero raises to $6.00, SB calls $4.00

Flop: ($12.00, 2 players) T 5 9
SB checks, Hero bets $8.00, SB calls $8.00

Turn: ($28.00, 2 players) 8
SB checks, Hero bets $18.00, SB calls $18.00

River: ($64.00, 2 players) A
SB checks, Hero bets $44.00, SB raises to $170.00, Hero calls $124.00

SB shows 8 8 (Three of a Kind, Eights)
SB wins $399.00



Biggest winning hand (sick valueshove!):


iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $377.80
Hero (SB): $268.40

BB posts SB $1.00, Hero posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has T K

BB raises to $6.00, Hero raises to $18.00, BB calls $12.00

Flop: ($36.00, 2 players) 5 K 3
Hero bets $22.00, BB calls $22.00

Turn: ($80.00, 2 players) 7
Hero bets $54.00, BB calls $54.00

River: ($188.00, 2 players) 3
Hero bets $174.40, BB calls $174.40

BB shows 5 A (Two Pair, Fives and Threes)
Hero shows T K (Two Pair, Kings and Threes)
Hero wins $535.80