I've been doing a lot of reading and analysis of my stats this week in order to discover the reason why my graph is continuously nosediving :').... From my investigations I have discovered that I need to steal more from the button and cut off, open up more on the button and tighten up in the sb and bb. Also I should try and exploit fish a lot more than trying to out level regs (don't try this often).
Overall the things I needed to adjust were significant but it was obvious they weren't going to make 4bb/100 difference. So then I decided to use other methods to see the reason.
I know what I'm about to say sounds incredibly fishy and non-reliable but I will persist anyway because I know I am removing any bias from my search.
Ok so basically I had a count of of coolers in my database (yep here we go degen making excuses
). I found that I had lost 70 buyins to coolers and only made 38 buy ins from coolers in my favour, therefore I had a net result of -32 buyins from coolers (and this was just considering the all in adjusted equity). So if you're reading this I know you'll be sat there thinking "this is total biased emotional bull****" so I removed that aspect from my investigation.
I said that a cooler was only classified by: set over set on no 3 to a straight or flush boards and if it was by the river not bottom 2 sets. So I think we can agree that's a legit cooler at NL10 100bb stacks (when they were boats the same reasoning was applied). The second class was of course the AA vs KK AI pre or on the flop in a 3 bet pot. Or AA and KK losing in 4bet pots (to hands like 64o yep thats legit). Nut flush vs 2nd nut flush, nut straight vs second nut straight (both hole cards play) only on non paired boards. Top 2 pair in a 3bet pot vs a set. Then of course things like straight flush over house, quads over house, those super sick types :P.
I deemed non of these situations at all foldable without a really good reason. As I applied the criteria in the same way to my wins and losses from coolers it makes the test fair
.
Therefore I was pretty happy to discover I was running 32 buyins below "cooler EV" and there wasn't a huge gigantic leak in my play despite a number of small ones I'm trying to fix. On top of this im still like 13 buyins under all in ev. Baring all this in mind I don't feel as disheartened in my play and will just try and ride out the variance.
I've added in pink lines of my net won with rakeback as well as to keep myself more positive about running into the ground
. My blue line is break even in the downswings which is just ****ed considering I'm on the nittier side of things :/