Day 76:
Well this thread has blown up pretty hard today lol!
I have actually realised something important today but first lets get the boring **** out of the way.
So today I played most of my volume vs two very different cartel guys who both ran pretty well but played drastically different. The first one was pavels who posts in the husng forum and played well, and beat me for a few buys in EV. He did some cool stuff and I improved from playing him. He likely deserved to win some $ from me. I recorded every hand and look forward to learning a couple more things when I review the match tmrw. The second was some random ****** who I honestly would hunt at 30s, he ran really well to breakeven in EV.
Played a few other games vs some randoms and overall my day ended up losing a bunch of dollazzzzz in EV. Obv this sucks but I am happy with my play today, and I ran well in CD last week so I can't complain too much about not running so well today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffreyPL1
and I don`t have to think if they will move down.
This point really made me think. I had been thinking I have been doing well, winning vs a lot of the cartel guys I played and feeling good about it, but this made me realise I am getting owned. Me beating some of their guys for a few $ for a few games per month makes no difference to them at all. I am not making up any ground on them.
The reason the cartel idea works is because there is a huge number of people in it. If they decrease in numbers it is way less effective. Currently they share the burden of playing regs between them and so it is not such a big deal to any individual member. i.e if it is me vs the cartel, I play 3k games a month, all of them vs cartel regs, but each of the 60 or so cartel regs only needs to play 1 session vs me of 50 games then can play fish every other game. Playing like 2% of games vs me will make no difference to their results over the month/year especially if it means they get more fish. So, as Jeffrey says, he doesn't really care if I move down or not.
He is pretty much indifferent to whether I play or not. This means I'm getting owned. In order to beat this weird 2 team strategy game I need to be in the position of being indifferent to their strategy.
The way I plan to do this is to play all my volume vs the weakest cartel regs, which I have now lined up with their own colour on Stars. I think I can beat these guys currently for >1%, and being that I only have a few people's games to study, as opposed to 50+ I should be able to increase that winrate over time. Now if I 2 table these guys winning 1% thats approx $40 per hour in actual winnings and approx $30 an hour in rakeback. Based on how much I grind this would come to nearly 100k per year, meaning I would be very happy to play these guys all year.
If these guys quit me I presume they would be useless to the cartel and kicked out. However the cartel needs large numbers, otherwise each reg has to sacrifice too much time hunting, and their hourly actually decreases, so they would have to recruit more, presumably worse regs, or quit sitting me.
If they recruit more bad regs, I can continue to beat them for a decent hourly. If they quit sitting me, I can play vs random fish.
There is no incentive for the strong regs solely to play me, as then they would be just lowering their hourly to protect the weak regs in the cartel which becomes pointless. Why would they stop me getting a lobby, when they could stop the weaker cartel regs from getting a lobby much more easily?
Tomorrow I will be trying to put all my 100s volume in vs these weak cartel members and adding any of them I think I can comfortably beat after rake to my own sit list.
I'll let you know how it goes!
GL!
Last edited by kaimac; 12-10-2013 at 02:14 AM.