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A Gambler's Ramblings A Gambler's Ramblings

04-16-2018 , 05:39 AM
Those are the two hands I recall. When bubble came around, I was a huge chipleader and bubble time was hugely profitable. When bubble burst, I played a few hands "normally" before counting my chips - at 2000/4000/500 I had 140k with the other players at 35/45k (prizes 140/220/360 IIRC) so I just started shoving a lot preflop since standard opens would give the chance for them to try and re-steal.

I busted the first shortstack with KK vs T8s, heads up lasted for 4-5 hands before he pushed on me and I looked down at AQ and held vs Q8, so I shipped the tournament for 360 EUR (+290) and also won some more change at roulette for a total of +140 and +430 for the night.

Had a bit of tilt at roulette, I had bet 25E on 5 and neighbours and hit, and usually I always let winners ride but now I moved it and of course 5 and neighbours hit the next spin. Quit soon after that. Of course, had I instead hit by moving, I would not think twice of it and the wheel has no memory, but still tilting that you do something you usually donīt when it would pay off.

Anyway, running sickly hot for the last month, +2350 EUR. Poker accounts only for half of that though, since I had that sick session where I first binked 650 on a slot and then hit a 20 EUR straight up bet on No 5.
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04-23-2018 , 06:36 AM
No updates since I have not played any poker for a while now, but this will change when the weekend comes along - Iīll hit the casino to donk off a buyin or two and maybe play some table games as well.

Last week I was on a business trip to my hometown, it was very nice since I also managed to meet some childhood friends I rarely see and we also went to a football game which our team won.

Was sunrunning sportbets for a while, all my picks seemed to win. Decided to withdraw most of the money when a parlay gets paid out and buy myself a new bike, but yesterday I think I had my all-time worse sportbetting day, losing to the tune of 300 EUR. Loads of one-goal games that did not go my way, and in the evening I was kind of tilted so fired off 4-5 baseball bets at 50E each, two got repaid due to game getting cancelled but only hit 1/3 (Yankees -1,5) so booked a loss here as well.

Hard to complain though, today hopefully my parlay comes through (Capitals to win series is last game of parlay), and if it doesnīt then the money comes in after game 7 since I have safed up this bet by also betting on Blue Jackets after game 5 - so no matter the result, I will have bet 45 EUR in total and will cash out 150:ish. And when this money comes in together with the balance I have remaining, new bike is coming my way.

And I also have some active bets today, hoping to get some rungood going again, otherwise Iīll just start over with 5-10E bets after my cashout.
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04-23-2018 , 06:43 AM
Bets for today:
Everton - Newcastle : 2

These teams really donīt have a lot to play for and Newcastle are in great form. Odds on Newcastle are high so I take a risk and bet them to win.

NY Yankees - Minnesota Twins hcp -1,5 : 1

Yankees are starting to wake up and with the offensive potential they have I think that this is a great bet at very decent odds.

San Francisco Giants - Washington Nationals : 2

Nationals have been shaky, loads of ups and downs, but they also have a lot of potential and I feel that they have a good chance to take this game, Gonzales has also had a good start to the season so I feel this is a good bet. Although I would advise anyone reading this blog to bet against me, since the times I have bet on the Nats this season I have lost every time so far.
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04-24-2018 , 06:05 AM
1/3 yesterday. Meh. Am urging to play poker more and more (no play for almost two weeks), but will have to wait until the weekend. Hopefully there will be some nice 2/2 PLO/DC action when I hit the casino, NLT vs nitregs is boring as **** and usually I tilt out after a while unless I sunrun and start playing all kinds of crap and paying off everyone, so fingers crossed for some good PLO action.

Bets for today:

NY Yankees - Minnesota Twins hcp -1,5 : 1

I would say that this is printing money, third game in a row.

Cincinnati Reds - Atlanda Braves hcp 1,5: 2

I think that the Braves will win this and I think there is a good chance that they win it by more than one run.

For today I bet 20 EUR on Yankees, 10 on Braves, then I also bet the double and also small bets on both teams to win by 5 runs (both singles and doubles). Basically if the Yankees come in for the win, I am freerolling the rest.
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04-25-2018 , 03:31 AM
Yesterday Yankees came through with an 8-3 win, giving me a nice net profit of 22 EUR since I hit my larger bet of 20 EUR on Yankees -1,5 as well as the smaller on Yankees -4,5. Feels weird to bet in units of 5-20 EUR, last week I was betting 20-50 EUR. Yesterday I looked at a few bikes, will probably buy today or tomorrow, but yeah, since I withdrew most of my sportbetting money I am betting smaller now. Of course, if I bust I can just reload, but will try to spin my 50E up to something nice instead.

Bets for today:

NY Yankees - Minnesota Twins hcp -1,5 : 1

Until Yankees prove me wrong, I print money.

Cincinnati Reds - Atlanda Braves hcp 1,5: 2

Once again I feel the Braves are the better team and should bounce back from yesterday's loss, and the odds are good for this bet (2,5x bet) so I feel this is a good one to bet on.

Braves, Yankees, Angels to win

This is just a gambly parlay - if I believe that Yankees and Braves will win, I do not really give the Angels that good of a chance away to the Astros, but at 2.95 it is playable odds and the whole parlay has a good payoff. Also Astros-Angels is the early game so I can watch it concurrent with the Champions League semi.

Bayern - Real, Draw and Over 3,5

Just to have a sweat on this game. I think that there will be a lot of goals and draw is a likely result, so why not combine both bets?

Once again, "Main" bet is Yankees -1,5. After placing my baseball bets I decided to bet CL as well, so today the Yankees win will not put me at break even even if all other bets lose, but as long as Yankees win with two runs I am down only 10 EUR even if all else fails.
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04-26-2018 , 03:37 AM
Yankees hit, but missed the Braves hcp by one run and the last 15 minutes of Bayern-Real were tilting as ****. Bayern should have equalised given the amount of chances and an equaliser would have meant a nice profit for me, however I am not going to fret on missing a longshot - after all, a longshot is a longshot and even it it hurts to be close it is no big deal to lose it.

Bets for today:
Yankees - Twins : 1
Reds - Braves : 2

Still believe in these two teams today but did not feel like betting with hcp, especially since the odds on Yankees -1,5 is now down to 2.00 (was 2.5 two games ago, 2.15 yesterday) and that makes it a bit less playable IMHO.

I also added small bets on both teams to win at -4,5 hcp (longshots ftw) as well as a double on this, need one of them to win by five to show profit on these bets.


Cardinals - Mets : Over 6,5

Good pitchers for both teams but I still think that a 7-run total is on the low side so I bet the over here at 1.8 odds IIRC.

Looking through my bets moneywise, I have erred a bit on bet sizing, since total amount bet is 43 EUR and it is not enough to just hit one of my main bets for break even (the double pays 32, the over bet 31) so I need to also hit either one of the hcp -4,5 bets or both main bets to not be in the red for today. Usually I try to size that my "main" bet covers all other bets but yeah, today I need to win more than one to break even.

Yesterday was a 10 EUR loss - my main bet (Yankees) covered all other baseball bets but I placed the CL bet at a later time so this bet turned the day to red numbers.

Anyway, after withdrawing winnings to buy bike and starting over with just 50 EUR, results were +22 day 1, -10 day 2, if one of the main bets win balance will be slightly above 50 so all good anyway.
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04-27-2018 , 02:56 AM
Yesterday was fun. Gary Sanchez hitting a three-run walk-off homerun in the bottom 9th, and then Mets taking a 3-2 lead in the top 9th, only for the Cards to get level in the bottom 9th, ensuring that my bet carries. Since I was tired I went to bed and didnīt finish this game. Too bad I made some spontaneous bets in the evening, so I only won a little (something like +5 EUR) even though both main bets hit.

This evening I will play poker, finally! Been a while...

Havenīt gone through the games for this evening, but I like the odds on Pirates to win at home vs Cards, I feel an upset is possible here.
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04-27-2018 , 03:33 AM
So, itīs Friday, so letīs gamble!

I bet the Pirates to win, and also.. the Rays. Basically banking on Blake Snell to have a good outing, and for the Rays to somehow pick up some runs, and for their bullpen to not blow up if they have a lead, and... ****, I just set some money on fire.

Also bet Over 7,5 in the Nats-Dbacks game and over 8,5 in the Angels-Yankees game.

Break even for the day is basically hitting 2/4 of the bets above.
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04-27-2018 , 02:11 PM
Table image should be taken care of. First hand, 5c plo, reraise Pot with top two and bd sd on T52cc board. Gii vs 80 bb stack and split vs Aa w/ clubs.
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04-27-2018 , 02:20 PM
Shorthanded shortstacked and nitty table. Bomb Time. Second hand I Showdown is qt997 i 3b pre get Called by a Guy calling half his stack. Flop a92 w flushdraw for me. I split vs Aa after making a straight on 2nd board.
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04-27-2018 , 10:51 PM
subbed following keep up the thread and good luck
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04-28-2018 , 08:03 AM
Tightdonkey, thanks! Will keep it going.

So, it all comes down to winning the big pots, right? Yesterday I won one. Top+bottom pair+gutshot straight flush draw vs top set and unknown hand allin on flop. 500 EUR pot.

Otherwise it was ice cold. Made one 300 EUR mistake on turn and got it in lousy (4 winning outs, 6 for split) where I should have folded. Got it in with pair+wrap+baby flush and had 6 outs for win and 6 for split (or something like that) since opp had set, nut flush draw and OESD. Gg me.

Last pot was telling. 2/2/4 (straddle), one limp, I open pot w/ KT987ss, call, shortstack allin 98, I pot 340 to iso (playing 750), after a 5 min tank caller pushes. We run it twice. First flop is K high w/ flush draw, runout K62A2 and turned flush for me. Second board I have K high straight on QJT board. Opp has AKKQ7ss and scoops the 1600 pot. Fml.

Win a few hundred on roulette and end the night down 1200. My baseball bets coming through for a 70 EUR profit is scant consolation.
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04-29-2018 , 07:04 AM
So, what went wrong on Friday? First of all, I probably should have skipped playing, since I had slept way too little duing the entire week. I could have gone on Saturday instead, much more rested, but the urge to play was too strong. Second of all, I played too many hands when the table filled up. Being loose in LP is OK and I think profitable in this live game but from EP it is burning money.

Also I had some flawed decision-making in a few pots, tending to weigh my opponents too heavily on made hands instead of combo draws/big draws, in turn overvaluing the number of live outs I have. I mean, I do not mind getting it in with top-and-bottom two pair+gutshot straight flush draw against a shortstack and a 150BB:ish stack on the flop, that one is OK, but after a tight player to my left re-pots my flop bet and I have a non-nut flush draw and a wrap, first of all I probably should fold then and there (or re-pot; since I do not know which outs are live and which are not, it is better to apply the pressure and hope he has top two/set or a wrap) and second of all I should fold when he pots the turn, even though I pick up additional outs with the high OESD (instead I re-raised all-in and was in bad shape against his two pair+NFD+straight blockers/OESD) - waiting to the turn to get it in (I had like 1,5 PSB left by then) is bad.

Regarding that last hand I played, if I win that pot I am up for the evening, so all in all it canīt be that bad if it is just one pot that decides it all. Been thinking a lot about it, except for the un-constructive "too bad it didnīt happen one of those two hands I had AAKKxss and AA88xds that I had an orbit ago", and really do not see how it could play out any other way.

Against a shortstack allin, there is no way I am folding KT987ss. So my options are call and re-raise. If I call, I will play the other deepstack OOP with an SPR of around 2, so basically calling lets me get away from some really bad flops. On the other hand, I am less trilled to call a squeeze (which I think pot odds dictate I do) than to iso-raise myself, and even if I do get it in, I should have something like 40% against his range, if not more - best case he has something like 98765 or along those lines.

Anyway, thatīs PLO for you. No play for a while due to work/travel/family reasons, but in a few weeks Iīll be back at the tables.

Yesterday baseball was ice cold, today my first footy bet looks to go to hell - I played a double on Getafe and Olympique Marseille, with Getafe taking an early 1-0 lead it felt good, but right before half time they get a man sent off and Girona get a penalty, so into the second half we head with a 1-1 score and a man less on the field. Not really a good place to be in. Will probably place some more footy bets during the day though.
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05-02-2018 , 02:08 AM
Been running a bit cold in the betting department lately although I hit a nice double (Braves and Diamondbacks) to get me back to slightly below break even. Had Phillies won the payout would have been bigger. Also the CL semi was extremely tilting - I had bet Bayern to win by 3-2, would have been a very nice score.

Will be abroad this week, first business then leisure with family. Haven't been to therapy for 3-4 weeks now due to different reasons so I have a lot to discuss, for example that losing money gambling only scares me with regards to potentially being unable to gamble but nothing else and I am not sure if that is good or bad.
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05-08-2018 , 10:05 AM
Not been doing anything gambling-related lately, was on a work trip and a short family holiday and I have just been enjoying the sun and lovely weather and being with family/friends lately. Today I am back at the office, very busy day. I want to gamble but it is hard to find the time for it, I placed some bets for today (Mets and Blue Jays to win) and a long-shot parlay (Mets -1,5, Blue Jays, Astros -1,5).

Of course, nothing like Snipes in the Degen stories thread, and the amounts are laughably small - my average bet usually ranges from something like the amount I would bet if betting numbers straight up on roulette to a pot-sized open after a straddle and a few limps in the live PLO game I sometimes play - but it adds a bit of fun to my life, so why not? Got to feed the inner degen somehow, right?
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05-11-2018 , 04:23 AM
Yesterday finally my luck turned with regards to betting. I won a longshot on the hockey WC:s for +100 EUR and then had nice bets on Angels -1,5 (won 7:4) and Phillies -1,5 (won 6:3) that came through. The Phillies game I bet mostly because it was an early game so I could watch it in the evening, but I did manage to sweat the last innings of the Angels game as well in the morning which was kind of fun.

Hopefully I can take some of this rungood with me to the poker tables tonight, since I plan to hit the casino this evening. Last session was terrible (-1200) but before that I had several winning sessions and was +2350 so since March I am +1150.

Tonight I hope to splash around a bit less with doubtful hands OOP and try to book a nice win. Not sure if I am a winning player longterm in a reg lineup, however lots of the regs are nitty and buy in short (for like 100 EUR in 2/2 PLO) and to interesting things like call AAxxx pre after a three-bet and then look at me as if I was sick in the head after we get it in on an A9x board where I have middle set and flushdraw (QT997).

My main issues are playing too loose OOP (which leads to follow-up problems on later streets) and tilt (not all-out pot-pot-pot monkey tilt, but still I have a tendency to chase more after losing and make dubious decisions). Hoping for a comparatively tight and tilt-free session tonight!
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05-11-2018 , 04:49 AM
Bets for today:
Mets @ Phillies -1,5 : Phillies
Phillies have been in decent shape, looked good in the game I saw yesterday. Mets on the other hand have lost 8 of their 9 games in May, including losing two out of three against the Reds. Mets have had a rest day but I still feel the Phillies are a strong pick to win this game.

Nationals @ Diamondacks : Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks are at home and before yesterdayīs game they went 4-4 against last yearīs No 1 and No 2. Yesterday they lost in extra innings so I figure that this game should be close even with superstar Scherzer starting for the Nationals, and the odds for a D-back win is high so I think this is a good value bet.

Norway - Denmark : 1X
Denmark are the home team and favourites for a reason, however Norway will probably see this as the last chance to retain a glimmer of hope of fighting for a quarter final finish and odds-wise, I do not feel that the difference between the two teams is as huge as the odds reflect. Also Denmark might be a bit cocky after beating Finland, so I bet against the favourite here since it is a good-paying longshot.
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05-11-2018 , 01:11 PM
Met. Only NLT running. While waiting for a game to start I dug a 600 hole on table games / slots, but then finally binked my number for 700 so quit 50 ahead. NLT is boring compared to PLO but what's a gambler gonna do?

So far typical NLT. No real action. Just flopped a straight and got paid zero.
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05-11-2018 , 01:22 PM
Oh how I love NLT.
AK vs AA ai pf for 80 bb. Standard but sucks.
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05-11-2018 , 01:53 PM
Ok, not so bad after all. Utg opens 14 a call I make it like 50 with aces, two calls, bet flop gii turn and mhig.
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05-11-2018 , 06:16 PM
Plo was fun. In for 300 out for 1000, lost 200 on NLT so a nice 500 eur profit. And had to wait for like 10 min for my cab so I emptied a slot for another +100 during the wait. Will post hh:s sometime from the computer.
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05-12-2018 , 08:49 AM
The first two hands of PLO was what made my yesterday great. I moved with 288 EUR from the NLT table as soon as PLO started and hand 1 I decide to squeeze K5544ds from the button after a raise and a call, but it ends up five-way to the flop for 60 EUR a piece. Flop is a beautiful 942 with two spades (do not have spade draw) so only 99 to worry about, anyway it checks to me, I push, one call. First runout is something like 8K, second A3, flush does not hit and my set is good on top board, straight on second board - opp mucked.

The next hand I pick up a monster - AA763 double-suited to my black Aces. This time the no-one has opened (but a ton of limps) so I pot from CO and again there are a lot of callers. Flop is a beautiful 874 with two clubs and one spade, giving me an overpair, a gutshot, a nut flush draw and a backdoor nut flush draw. Someone in MP pots it, gets called, I re-raise and in the end three other players put their stacks in the middle (largest ca 150 EUR). Turn is a beautiful ten of clubs, giving me the nut flush, and somehow the board does not pair on the river, so I scoop a sizeable pot and my stack is now somewhere around the 1000 mark.

During the night my stack fluctuated between 700-1200, in the end I cashed out for 1000.
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05-14-2018 , 03:20 AM
Time for some PLO hand histories - if anyone is actually reading this thread, Iīd appreciate some feedback.

1) River Bluffcatch?
Villain is one of the more aggressive players at the table. First hand I played I doubled through him (see first hand in above post), no major confrontations since then. Villain has around 500, Hero covers.

Pre:
Call, villain opens MP, call, call, Hero calls KTJ33ds from BB.

Flop: (Pot: 40)
K 9 6
SB checks, Hero checks, EP checks, Villain bets 30, folds to hero who calls, EP folds.

With top pair, gutshot and a backdoor straight draw I feel that a call is in order here. Preflop is questionable but I have been running good, I am feeling confidnt and although three connected + low unconnected PP generally isnīt a great hand, well, #YOLO or something.

Turn: (Pot: 100)
K 9 6 2
Hero checks, Villain checks.

I like. This makes KK/99 very unlikely holdings.

River: (Pot: 100)
K 9 6 2 2
Hero checks, Villain bets 100, Hero calls.

So, the river brings a harmless two. I contemplate bluffing, to try to fold out AK/AA hands, but decide against it since I have a hard time coming up with a legit hand that I should have given this line and this board.

When Villain pots it I am quite perplexed, since wtf is he supposed to have here? I am contemplating what legit hands could take this line, perhaps 66 not wanting to bloat the pot/get check-raised on the turn in case it is a set over set situation? Then we have hands hands 22 as well, although these may well bet the turn as well.

While contemplating a call, Villain says something along the lines of "I only have Aces, for real" which I of course discard as total bull**** - why would AA bet here? (To get value from bluffcatching fish like me?)

So after an unusually long tank for me I call.


2) Value Bet Hidden Sucker Straight?
V1 in this hand is tight, on the passive side, but solid. V2 is the Villain from hand above. V1 has around 200, V2 around 500, Hero covers.

Preflop:
Four limpers to Heroīs straddle (4 EUR). Hero has AQQ82, suited AQ.

Flop: (Pot: 20)
J 9 4
Checks to Hero, Hero pot 20, V1 and V2 call.

Turn: (Pot: 80)
J 9 4 3
Hero bets 60, V1 and V2 call.

River: (Pot: 260)
J 9 4 3 5
Hero bets 120 (V1 has less than 100 behind, V2 has around 400)

Until the river this hand is super-standard I think, I flop good with the gutshot, nut flush draw and overpair so I have to bet here for multiple reasons. Getting called in two places isnīt something that I really mind. On the turn, I bet out again. My reasoning is partly range balancing, partly fold equity (lots of hands would peel for 20 but fold for a turn bet unimproved), partly value vs wraps.

On the river, I am faced with a decision on how to proceed. Here I chose to bet 1/2 pot (now that I am writing this, I realise that it was actually slightly below 1/2) for value against passively played two pair, something like lower spade draw/wrap w/ two pair/bottom set, these types of hands. Me holding a straight here is very unlikely given the action, I mean there arenīt really a lot of A2/62/86 combos in by hand and V1/V2 shouldn't really show up with these either.

But the fact that there is a straight on board also means that V1/V2 will check back large parts of their value ranges, and I hope that my bet looks like a missed flush draw/wrap trying to buy the pot.

Thoughts?
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05-16-2018 , 04:05 AM
Anyway, in Hand 1 above Villain turned up with something like 9876x, for turning his flopped bottom two into a bluff on the river. In Hand 2, first Villain snap-called for his remaining 84 EUR, second folded, V1 flipped over KQT76 for the nuts - meh. Still I feel that my play in the hand is correct though since my rivered sucker straight is well hidden and I should get looked up enough by weaker hands assessing my play as a river bluff on a busted draw.

Not sure if I will manage to hit the casino this week, on Saturday my daughter turns six so no play on Friday (since I have to do a lot of stuff on Saturday morning, and then a birthday party with lots of small kids - need to be well rested to make it through the day in one piece), and not sure if I will have the power to hit the casino after putting the kids to bed on Saturday.

But I do need to play regularly if I want to improve my game and although I have no ambitions whatsoever to go pro or whatever, I do need practice. Also I need to work on my mental game, since by nature I am a gambler and I have a larger portion of degen in me. I have become quite adept at controlling this degen (especially since I quit drinking last year) but I still got it of course.

Partly, having this inner degen helps - especially when playing grinding, nut-peddling nits. This inner degen makes my game more aggressive by nature and allows me not to shy away from thin spots, which helps my table image and also - when done in a controlled fashion - allows me to beat up on ze nits.

But it is also a big risk - after a lost pot or two, the inner degen will start screaming CHASE! GET IT BACK! POT! POOOOT! FOR ****'S SAKE, POT IT, POT IT NOW, RE-POT IT! GET IT BACK! CHASE! and if left unchecked, more often than not it leads to an early exit from the tables.

Psychotherapy is helpful for the general issues, however for the poker side of the mental game I have to figure out stuff for myself. Last Friday I played (in my opinion) very good poker and there is really only one hand I totally ****ed up and that was to the tune of missing a value bet for around 50 EUR on a K734K board on the river with 77. And I went to the tables with the thought that I am there to win, and I played thereafter - of course, quadroupling my buy-in in the first two hands helped a lot, but after these hands I did settle down and play poker instead of thinking that I rule the world and need to take everyone's money ASAP.

I think this is something that I really have to keep in mind when I hit the casino - I need to leave the degen gambler mindset at home and sit down at the tables with a winner's mindset. (And when I am in the casino, I always satisfy my inner degen with a little bit of table games and/or slots anyway.) I need to focus on the fact that there is only one thing that allows me to stay in action and that thing is money - and I like gambling with profits and using a separate gambling roll, not replenishing it from life-money every other week. And to sustain this I need to win more often than not.

Thus far things have been going very well, but in December/January, when I dropped something like 1,5k in three sessions, my mindset was very poor - it was actually very childish, since I expected the rungood to go on and my reaction to not winning was to tilt and lose even more. This time, when I dropped 1,2k in a single session a few weeks ago, I instead turned to introspection and to error evaluation and I at least have some idea of what to do and what to not do mentally.

So far I am up something like 1800 EUR since March so things are looking good, but have to keep it that way.
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05-17-2018 , 02:19 AM
Another hand that I havenīt posted from the last session is keeping my mind occupied, although it probably is trivial. I am trying really hard to get away from hero calling mode too often, so I guess that is the only reason I still mull over this one. Do not have the exact details, but went something along the lines of:

I open AKKJx after a limp or two, get a number of callers. Flop is AJ8r. Checks to me, I lead for something like 30 and get called by a reg who I havenīt played with before except for a few hours of NLT before the PLO game - he moved to the tournament and sat down during the break with a stack of around 800, I cover. Not seen him out of line or anything, played TAG on NLT table.

Turn is a Q bringing a flush draw I do not have. He checks, I bet 100, he check-raises to 350 and I am like WTF!? I have two blockers but still, this is 5-card PLO and I think my FE is too low in this spot to make a play (and I am drawing very, very slim if called) so I fold.

Not sure why I keep mulling over this hand, I mean, re-raise is just lighting something like 700 EUR on fire, right?
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