Quad, given its not a pure popular vote and will likely come down to 4ish states I would just look at how Trump fair'd in those states last cycle and see if he can under/over perform his last go around vs Biden if that's who you think it'll be.

being from Michigan, I know last cycle Trump won but it wasn't because he managed to run some great campaign there or anything. MI has a recent history of going Blue in presidential elections, nobody was really enthused about Hillary, so a lot of people just put 1 and 1 together and didn't really turn out to vote. voila, Trump took MI. I would be very surprised if that happens again there.

I have no pulse on OH, WI, or PA but I'm sure you could dig in and find out whats likely gonna happen there.

Great post , I see lots of similarity’s in bernie to corbyn unfortunately big business a d media smear campaigns are horrific and where so transparent against corbyn it was laughable.socialysm is the enemy of capitalism scary world we live in

Interesting that so many people think Biden has a better chance vs Trump than Sanders. I thought it was the opposite. I thought Sanders inspires a lot of people and that + trump hate would lead to turn out at the polls in a general election. Who does Biden inspire? I saw someone on twitter frame it eloquently: Biden is nobody's first choice. He's like olive garden. You end up there because it's impossible to get 12 people to agree on sushi.

Will people show up to vote for olive garden? I'm dubious

I don't think that Biden inspires a ton of peeps, tbh, but less fear him and he represents a bigger proportion of institutional Democratics ideas then Bernie does. He is also (somewhat) the continuity of Obama. He also fares better with black folks (but less with Latinos) then Sanders does.

I believe that after Brexit/Trump/worldwide nationalist movements, liberals do not need to be inspired by a candidate as much as fear the opposition. Which Trump clearly instills this consternation.

The political situation is quite different in Canada where the left is split in between 3 major parties (4 if we include the Green Party), while the right has only the Conservatives to vote for. So while the majority of the country is CLEARLY Socio-Democratic leaning and that Trudeau failed to inspire many during our most recent elections, folks just decided to vote Liberal (as opposed to Neo-Democratic or Bloc) to counter the conservatives.

Anyhow, at that price, that bet for Trump looks terrible, me thinks. What is the line vs him?

Sanders inspires a lot of people that you hear from on the news and on social media - don't forget the huge silent majority that will quietly vote for a more moderate candidate or reject someone offering something so different. This is exactly what happened in the UK.

Dems +150 I've been seeing.

Ok so I guess I'm a fish at predicting politics because the market seems to like the dems chances a lot more now with biden as frontrunner than sanders. I don't understand it but I'm just going to sit this one out before I light money on fire.

Where would you of placed the bet? At that price, I might put a few K myself on the Dems...

That edit though haha
I think pokershares is offering it? Pretty sure also 5dimes. I use Bovada personally but not sure if you are able to use that as a Canadian?

straight to the casino when you win this bet and put the whole life roll on black,

https://twitter.com/BenjaminPDixon/s...815117313?s=19

Watch this and tell me you think Biden can beat Trump in a general election. This is insane.

Have put the whole life roll on one bet several times but it's not possible anymore, roll is way too big now and growing daily, sadly it looks like those days are over

how did you build the roll on ignition from $100? did you just play poker? 4 tabling? what stakes?

none of that stuff really matters, though. ~48% will always vote one way, ~48% the other. the ~4% in the middle in a handful of swing states decides this thing. all that will matter there is the economy and how much of an issue/non-issue this covid19 turns out to be.

figure that out, don't pay attention to any of that other stuff.

I don't remember exactly. But, I've always had **** BRM. I was probably playing 25PLO and NLHE with 4BI's and playing two table at a time.

Probably accurate. What an insane world we live in, the two guys running for president both are showing early signs of dementia, and nobody seems to care. WTF.


mini update
My airbnb here in Medellin, Colombia expires in two days. I was planning on going to more countries in South America but I think with this coronavirus stuff going on, it might be a good idea to cut my travels short and return home. I'm not worried about dying per se, but seeing what's happening in countries like Italy (Every major city is on quarantine, no flights in or out), makes me want to return home. I don't want to be stuck in a city where I can't even speak the language with no way to leave.

But, I want to see the beach again, one last time before I return to the US. So I think I am going to buy a ticket to Tulum, Mexico (rated one of the best beaches in Latin America) for Tuesday, spend a week relaxing on the beach and grinding online PLO cash games there, and then back to USA.

Edit: mini poker update
Online cash games have been going swimmingly. I haven't played live once in almost a month now. 100% of my volume has been online and I've been super pleased with the results. I'm up about 17K in this time frame playing mostly 500PLO. It's been very motivating. I feel in the zone right now. Think I might be ready to move up to 1KPLO full time soon. I've been shot taking it a bit and the regs are definitely a lot better but there's still plenty of fish.
Cheers and gl all!

Sounds like a good plan, tons of great beaches around Cancun. I've personally only been to Cancun, Playa del Carmen, and Tulum, but you might want to check out Holbox as well. I always hear it brought up as a favorite beach in Mexico.

I do hope this is not the main reason to go back home, as I feel it goes completely against logic... I do not know about Colombia, but there are but a few cases in Chile-Brazilia-Argentina (like under 5 cases) while there are a TON in the USA. If you are really basing your return to the homeland on Corona Virus, then the smartest move would be to spend a couple more months over here and leave in May, just before winter comes (and summer arrives in the US). My 2 cents

This is the web page listing the # of cases per country ; again, if your imminent travel plans are based on Corona Virus, staying in Colombia (where there are a mere 3 cases) is your best bet : https://www.worldometers.info/corona...qN25jHERBf5o48

edit : Tulum really not the best place to go for a nice beach.

So I didn't take this advice and got the **** out of south america and back in california now. I don't think it's safer but I was worried about travel restrictions being enforced and I just feel more comfortable being in my homeland during a pandemic I guess.

I just got back thursday morning. And very glad I came back. Won 1k ish in 3/5 nlhe thursday night and played in an insane 5/T plo game last night and won 17k.

Not a bad two days of being back that really could not have come at a better time either. Really helps lessen the sting of my btc portfolio going to hell.

Check out my IG for the chip porn pics if anyone is interested

BTW what's a good beach in Mexico you would recommend if not Tulum, Dub? Once this whole coronavirus madness is over I think I want to go to a nice beach in mexico for awhile

Fossilkid would be the one to ask, but my favourite beaches have been Zipolite (a hippie/reggae townWAY down south though, so maybe not that convenient for you...) and close to Sayulita, which would be convenient from California (I have not been in 20 years, but I have heard that while more touristy, it is still not overly crowded and it remains a surfer's place).

edit : nice session and yeah, it makes sense for someone who does not speak the local language, does not have close/trustworthy friends around and is new to travelling solo, to want to get back home

edit2 : been trying to buy the BTC dip as I sold my remaining coins last week @ 9.2k, but am having a hard time here in Argentina with limited cash on my (want to purchase 12-15k). But anyhow, I see it getting back to 10k+, but it might take until 2021...

I'm not really an expert either, I spent a month in Mazatlán and 2 weeks in PdC, Cancún, and Tulum in the Riviera Maya. It depends a lot on what you like in a beach: do you want touristy, hippy, catering to English speakers/foreigners, a more authentic Mexico experience, partying, culture, large city or small town, prices on par w/USA or a budget experience, etc. Luckily Mexico has options in all those categories.

There's also a guy who has a thread on here and plays live poker full-time in Mexico. I think he's based in Los Cabos, but I believe Puerto Vallarta and Cancún also have a decent live scene. So if you were looking to mix in a bit of live poker, it'd probably have to be one of the "big 3" beaches.

Dub, I'm not 100% sure it was you, but I think I might have read you say that you were expecting a dip to 3k, then you'd get back in? Are you just thinking that we're close enough that the time to strike is now?

I mostly got out before the cliff dive from 8k and am currently on the sidelines waiting to get back in and then hold for a long time. Nothing extravagant, but it'd be nice to own a couple BTC in case it blows up someday.

I sold the majority of mine (90%) back in September at 12.5k and then another 5% last week at 9.2k. I was waiting for 6.5k before purchasing 12-15k (and then up to 50k total if it stayed in that price range/went down). Now that it is at 5.3k, I definitely want in, but find myself with only a few k in cash in Buenos Aires (which I need) and no Canadian phone number as to purchase online... I actually tried purchasing when it was down in the low 4k a couple of days ago, but my Argentina phone number got refused.

Anyhow, I would definitely strike now : the cost of missing out is greater then waiting for another (greedy) dip to 3-4k. Whatever the case, I do expect it to be back over 10k but it might take 6-12months... My 2cents.

I’ve been buying over the last couple of days. I’ve never sold any, I just keep adding when I have cash and the price crashes.

I don’t feel confident in ‘trading’ it so I am just accumulating.

I've become a cliche and became an agent for Pokerbros. Games seem really good so far

So the quarantine is going well so far. I feel like I've been preparing my whole life for it.. stay home all day and avoid people. Ok cool. Although I am starting to miss live poker. Some of the local guys around here are starting a 5/5 PLO game home game with no rake. First game is on Tuesday. I'm very conflicted. On one hand, I should stay home and help not to spread the virus. On the other, it's going to be a small group and the game is going to be insanely juicy. Decisions decisions. Also I created a website for my pokerbros agenting. Games are insane right now with no live poker. Can I post it here? Or will I get banned for shilling?

I do not believe you can post that type of info. if so everybody and their mothers would be running around shouting from the top of their lungs about their clubs.