Quote:
Originally Posted by Strappz
Random 2+2 Poster: "I'm winning over 10k hands, is that enough to know if I'm a winning player?"
Community: "No you need at least 100k hands to determine your actual winrate."
Brokenstars: "I started at 5nl a few years ago and now after hundreds of thousands of hands play 500nl."
Community: "It's just a heater."
Whilst Broken is undoubtedly a good poker player and has got a lot better since he started I don't know a single poker player who plays for a living that hasn't had a sick heater to get them to where they are. Whether that is a big tournament win or running really pure at an important time in their career. It is a lot easier (still very hard) to put in the effort when your results are good, when your result are bad you just think **** it why bother with poker.
People really don't appreciate variance. Go back 10 years and people would lol at thinking a winning 70k sample was variance are dead broke from poker. Look at the people who ran meh and earned 40k a year and could get better jobs rather than dedicating themselves to poker etc.
Look at the complete losers who binked tournaments 20 years ago that still think they are good poker players when they have been consistent heavy losers for many years.
And Broken is a clever capable person who I would argue would do better outside of poker over the long term. It definitely isn't "just a heater" but he is 100% on a life heater.
Survirorship bias is really fun in poker. The difference is people who work hard and that's all you can judge it on but it's still mostly based on people who ran good especially from the age Broken did.