lol you dont want to worry about statistically how long itll go on for...

sooner or later youll run worse than you ever imagine...

just keep gridning and try to minimize your mistakes, prepare yourself tho, its not going to be nice...

glglgl!

ty all...
but i am already running worse than i could imagine. I read on guys running like 100BIs down over 100k hands though, so i guess i can be glad...lol.
i just wanted to have an idea on what is the statistic probability to run under EV this way

EV update: 24Bis down.


vs. aggro fish







vs. tag reg








pretty standard hands, just coinflips, so i didn't tilt today.


but this guy did:

previous hand vs. him:














villain is 18/14/3,6% 3bet over 200ish hands.

chat:

villain: **** you, you raise 70% of the times and now you have monsters

Just read all of this and its pretty sick that you run this bad. Maybe it might be worth moving back to FR for a bit to take a less variance route until things start to pick up.

Another option might be trying not to over think things, you are far too good for this level and that can have a negative effect as you overplay hands and dont give people enough credit although all they are doing is playing their hands face up.

At the beginning of the year my game was shot and although i wasnt running massively under EV like you are it looks like it was simply a case of me not been able to fold.

All the best.

thanks mart! FR is def an option. I appreciate your support and your story is inspiring.

but


this can't be real, it is really ****ing gross. it is a poker nightmare, and i know it is stupid, but am I allowed to say that Pokerstars is rigged?


EV update: 26BIs down. dropped 2 BIs in EV in 100 hands.

REAL MONEY update: 21BIs down. i improved a bit in the last 2 weeks


V is 80/40 aggro fish. 3 hands vs. him in like 2 rounds:

























basically i stacked him from 5 dollars to 30

horror update.

another BI down in EV: total= 27.
big party for when i reach 30, which his pretty much a decent BR. I am thinking about complaining with PS, telling them that i am going to quit if they keep making me run like this

lol at 2 outers










villain has 4% 3 bet and through caller is a fish, so i am sure i am flipping vs. a PP here. stupid me, embracing variance. should know that it is a 80/20

Have pretty much just read through the whole of your blog - new here and looking for a few to follow.

Lately you've obviously been focusing a lot on your EV graph - but this is such a limited tool. In poker, we're essentially making our decisions as though we're playing against a range of hands - not a specific hand. The EV function only shows how we're expected to fair vs villains specific hand, not his range. Obviously it sucks that you're getting in ahead and losing - but its far too easy to look at that fact and leave it there (speaking from experience there).

May be worth going back through some of the hands and making sure you're ahead of the villains range when the money goes in - not his specific hand.

Best of luck with the op, subscribed.

thanks, you are right, EV doesnt measure how well you are playing. i think i didnt play my best game overall. but still taking good decisions and playing winning poker, which starts to drop down at the end of sessions when i tilt and spew a ton. i also started using the chat which i never did.

i've been in downswings already, but never of this type and it is really frustrating. i don't know if it ever happen to you guys, it is not the coolers (which still happen btw), it is that every single time i go AI I lose. and i am almost always ahead or priced in, which should make me happy...lol. the funny thing is that you can tell the cards that are coming.

down another BI in EV.
28 BIs down in EV. i am moving down to 5nl as my BR, after cashing out 1K and this downswing is too slim to play 10NL (tilt breaker doesn't allow me to check now, but i guess it is around 100euros). from 50nl to 2nl, would be a nice challenge. i think that if i go busto with the last 20BIs I give up

up 6 BIs today at 10nl. up 1,5 BIs in EV which is nice. also won with AK v KK AI pfr BvB.

couple of bad hands, but when i am up i dont tilt that much





meh not sure how to play this hand. V is unknown 1 tabling. board is pretty bad, i still think he stacks off with AQ, KK, JJ


vs. a drooler









reisoing a fish lol

then played vs. a Pokerstar pro, Ruggeri, who for some reason today decided to play 10NL. he usually plays tourneys and some 10/20 nl as well.

when i logged in he was opening tables and i joined without noticing the red spade on his name. lol

had him on 4 tables


interesting hand:


he was playing 27/26/9% 3bet. i was playing pretty much the same. i was on 2 seats on his right on 3 tables and 3betted him and squeezed a ton as his foldv3bet was 83% and he was miniraising any CO and BTN.



i got outplayed here. i levelled myself that my check ott and small bet otr could induce some spazz and make him turn some hands into a bluff. i felt so safe with the Ah here, and i was pretty sure he would barrell a FD on this turn...lol. thin value shove. meh, betting the river for thin value like this vs. him is pretty dumb.













i got lucky here.

Crushing the pro`s now, nice work. Seriously though glad to see you winning a bit, the QQ hand sucks hard but thats how it goes sometimes.

lol. he actually outplayed me, i was just flopping well and was IP most of the times.
i really like his thin value shove with AK. at that point i was thinking that he had TT-KK, hence my small bet, but on the other hand i am never bluffing otr so it would be an easy fold for him i guess. his line was weird for a microstakes player and i told myself that he could actually turn TT-KK into a bluff there. overthinking a bit, lol.
but i had fun as he is not a standard ABC microstakes reg for sure and we did fight a bit

up 2 BIs today. got it in pre BTNvSB with QQ and sucked out on KK. one time!

i first thought this one was good, but it isnt




V is a lagtard. i think he raises sets and 2p and Q9 ott. turn bet is meh tbh, i was trying to make him fold 77-99 and 6x. otr i checked with the plan to give up, but his sizing otr made little sense at first, as what is he vbetting here but Q9dd, 89dd? i dont think he bets that big with tp and probably not even with 2p as i look pretty weak. 88 unlikely (now we know that he could have it), and i was pretty sure he was checking back Jx and Tx.
reviewing it i was surprised that my call is actually bad, unless i think his size polarizes his range that much towards bluffs. and i did not have that read.



Board: Kd 6d Th Jc 8c
Dead: *




equity win tie * * *pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.000% * 20.00% 00.00% * * * * * * 6 * * * *0.00 * { As8d }
Hand 1: 80.000% * 80.00% 00.00% * * * * * *24 * * * *0.00 * { Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, K8s, Q9s, 9d8d, 8c6c, 8h6h, 8s6s, K8o, Q9o }

pretty easy fold, isnt it?


V is a 19/10/1,5 agg, fishy reg.

A8: I wouldn't c-bet OTF, is it bad. Turn went x/x so I don't really understand your analysis. River is a fold.

AA: WP although I wonder if you're ahead ever against five players.

LOL.

A8 hand, i really missed that. that was my actual thought while playing, and i was genuinely thinking i did db ott. pretty bad.

AA: obviously we are not very happy to have a family pot and this coordinated board. change it to KT9 and it is a clear vbet. still i think there is some value there given how fishy the players in the pot were. JJ-shy QQ (especially from the latest players), Jx, Tx, 98, 78. also pot is big already and even betting only to collect dead money is not that bad.
i decided that i was already calling (or RR a raise) from SB (SS) and BTN (aggro fish).

i think i remember you check folding in a similar spot. i think this one is a lot closer to a xf than yours tbh, given the number of players. it is not that mw= 2p+ all the times.

I can remember too... What do you think about the c-bet size? Yours seems to be OK but I'm asking as you're gonna fold against some of the players so we should take it into account too.

MP was the only reg (fishy though) I was bothered by.it is a pretty easy spot as everyone is going to act honestly, but the two guys i mentioned. Also, while MP and CO are somehow defined, BB and SB can have ATC here i guess, they are loose fishes and odds are just huge.
My sizing was targetting the fishy players, i think it is fine bc we get value from a pretty wide range. I also think this is fine bc of villains. At 50nl it would be a very thin spot.
Hard to say what size is best here bc the situation is very complex

Quick update, hoping it doesnt stop the heater...BR was 80 euros at some point, now i am on a 34BIs upswing at 10nl and EV has been neutral for the last 15k hands as well. I am close to be BE in terms of real money this year despite the 31BIs lost in EV. Poker can be rude at times, while playing 50nl in january I was seeing myself moving up by the end of the summer just to find myself withdrawing my BR bc of tilt. (which was a good idea btw).
Then such an upswing happens. Idk, there is something wrong in these ups and downs.

Anyway got really lucky in some deepstack spots and playing overall decently. Avoided tilting today when i flopped mid set on KQ6r vs. 2p just to get otdrawn otr was quite surprising, but good run does that.
Goal is just keep playing a bit before getting back to Myanmar again at the end of this month. i will also spend some days in Vietnam, planning to move there pretty soon (grinding will not be a working option though, lol).

Good to hear that. You deserve it.

What are you going to do/work then?

Ty

This is going to be a bit long and OT.

One possibility is to get a CELTA certificate and teach english. I also got some interest by a vietnamese ecommerce company as a product manager. i am open to pretty much anything tbh. Trying to figure out what is best. Any suggestion is welcomed!
I am a product and warehouse manager for a book wholesaler atm.
I turned down 2 very good job opportunities (one from amazon.com) recently. 2 yrs ago I resigned from one of the best jobs i could imagine, I kind of felt I wanted to be free and get to this point. Hard to explain, most people dont get it. It's not that I dont understand how lucky I have been. it has been exciting to start from the real bottom and get the chance to get to a rewarding position. But
what I thought was cool is not anymore. Might be the business enviroment, the people, the crisis, the loss of ambition, idk. It just results in me not smiling the whole day, and not enjoying what I am doing. I am not depressed or anything, lol. But now I am 31 and I have been thinking about it for couple of years. I want to try. I am willing to work hard/learn but not here.
Last, but not least, sentimental life is going well and being in South Eastern Asia would make things easier too.

so goal is to move there by the beggining of 2013.

Btw from VN I might play on PS.com, so we could play each other a bit...lol.

I don't know if it worked for you but you're in the age when you might think more in the long(er) term. Not only should you think about today and tomorrow but also what you'll be doing in 1-2-5 years. I also always think about all the possible (good and bad) outcomes of my actions (in my private life and in my job).

Personally it helps me a lot and it makes things easier when I'm facing a difficult/unpleasant situation in my life (b/c I'm already somehow prepared).

Sorry if it sounds stupid/trivial. GL and keep us informed what is happening to you.

ty furkae.
i have never been someone who really thinks in the long term, but obviously for job rated things. it is not an unpleasant moment tbh, i dont have big issues staying here. but the will to go to VN is stronger and i feel the situation and mindset is just right. not easy, but stimulating! i will figure it out better after this trip.

ty again

Just do whatever you think is going to make you happy. thats the important thing, I took a couple of jobs when I was younger in haste and basically just because the money was better but they made me unhappy and it wasnt worth the difference.

You say your open to suggestions so how about setting up a poker bot ring to rival the big Ipoker ones?

yeah, it's not the money, though I am aware that the more the better.... I know that I will eventually have to cut out some expenses like travelling so often, photography or whatever...or maybe not, who knows.
Furkae, you have a wife and couple of kids, it is a lot different. That is one of the reasons I want to do it now, and didnt want to commit to new jobs, I didnt want to be caught by anything.

let's see..


@martin: you mean a tilting monkey bot? would be fun! I guess we can join our minds and set one who never folds both pre and postflop, just need to find a 200% RB deal to cover the table losses...

200%? Ipoker are getting so desperate I think we should hold out for 250% lol. Should email them inquiring:-

Dear Sirs,

I am thinking of building a poker bot to play on your network and wonder which one you would recommend? also if you could point me in the direction of your best under the counter RB deal that would be brilliant.

Thanks.