What's up guys.
My shot at 25z is basically going awful.
In some weird twist of events, I feel like I'm playing really solid. I did some study and finally had a bit of theory breakthrough with turns and feel like my turn play is getting better. My mental game has been strong so far and I don't feel I've tilted much at all. Maybe I'm delusional, but 25z honestly feels the same as 10z, maybe a bit softer. The regs are clearly better, but the reg to fish ratio (atleast at the hours Iplay) seems a bit better. There are more spewy 70/50 whales too.
However though, I'm running god awful. It just feels like everyone is getting there. I don't remember the last time I saw so many bad runouts, or had people hit 5-6 outers in small pots alone (ignoring big pots). My WSD this month is 50.9, which is super low for me.
In big pots, it feels like they have it, and every time I've got for max value without the nuts they somehow have it.
Atleast that is what it feels like. But who knows, It is possible I'm a delusional idiot and I'm actually just a horrible punter. So, I've decided to post all the times I've got stacked at 25z so far this month. This is going to be a deluge of like 20 hands, but I'd appreciate it if you guys could have a quick look at them and tell me what you think. This is just me sorting by biggest lots post, and not keeping any punts out. There are a couple bad plays in here (I'll note which ones) but a lot I think are runbad, but maybe I'm lying to myself.
This first one is a bad call OTR. Hard for him to find bluffs and I should have folded. Could be avoided.
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 145.64 BB
SB: 100 BB
Hero (BB): 107.32 BB
UTG: 109.84 BB
MP: 121.36 BB
CO: 215.8 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB,
Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q
J
UTG raises to 2.48 BB,
fold,
fold,
fold,
fold,
Hero calls 1.48 BB
Flop: (5.36 BB, 2 players) J
6
7
Hero checks,
UTG bets 3.28 BB,
Hero calls 3.28 BB
Turn: (11.92 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks,
UTG bets 7.28 BB,
Hero raises to 28 BB,
UTG calls 20.72 BB
River: (67.92 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 15 BB,
UTG raises to 76.08 BB and is all-in,
Hero calls 58.56 BB and is all-in
UTG shows K
K
(Two Pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Pre 86%, Flop 82%, Turn 18%)
Hero shows Q
J
(Two Pair, Queens and Jacks)
(Pre 14%, Flop 18%, Turn 82%)
UTG wins 207.04 BB
Second one might be a bit of a punt. I thought this guy would have some sets so I didn't x/r flop. When he doesn't jam turn I thought he was capped and jammed to stack a T myself. This one might be a punt too.
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 29.88 BB
SB: 116.56 BB
BB: 351.6 BB
UTG: 153.4 BB
Hero (MP): 107.12 BB
CO: 117.16 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K
K
fold,
Hero raises to 2.52 BB,
CO calls 2.52 BB,
fold,
fold,
fold
Flop: (6.44 BB, 2 players) 8
6
T
Hero checks,
CO bets 3.08 BB,
Hero calls 3.08 BB
Turn: (12.6 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks,
CO bets 4.52 BB,
Hero raises to 18.44 BB,
CO calls 13.92 BB
River: (49.48 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 83.08 BB and is all-in,
CO calls 83.08 BB
Hero shows K
K
(Full House, Sixes full of Kings)
(Pre 82%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
CO shows 8
8
(Full House, Eights full of Sixes)
(Pre 18%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
CO wins 207.64 BB
Third Maybe I shouldn't jam AKo here vs UTG, but I've noticed a lot more people 4b/folding at 25z, so I've just been GII pre wiht AKo. I think this is fine??
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 103.48 BB
Hero (SB): 107 BB
BB: 123.64 BB
UTG: 323.8 BB
MP: 122.24 BB
CO: 31.36 BB
Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K
A
UTG raises to 2.24 BB,
fold,
fold,
fold,
Hero raises to 11 BB,
fold,
UTG raises to 25.6 BB,
Hero raises to 107 BB and is all-in,
UTG calls 81.4 BB
Flop: (215 BB, 2 players) 4
3
4
Turn: (215 BB, 2 players) T
River: (215 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero shows K
A
(One Pair, Fours)
(Pre 7%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%)
UTG shows A
A
(Two Pair, Aces and Fours)
(Pre 93%, Flop 95%, Turn 100%)
UTG wins 207 BB
Four, So this one I specifically flat (normally wouldn't flat BU vs reg UTG) because I know BB is a whale. I know he is spewy, so when he raises river I jam. I expected to stack his worse flushes and Qx and I expected him to reraise boats OTT.
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): 106.88 BB
SB: 138.84 BB
BB: 106.88 BB
UTG: 281.92 BB
MP: 144.36 BB
CO: 141.28 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB,
BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A
J
UTG raises to 3 BB,
fold,
fold,
Hero calls 3 BB,
fold,
BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (9.4 BB, 3 players) 2
4
Q
BB checks, UTG checks,
Hero checks
Turn: (9.4 BB, 3 players) 2
BB checks, UTG checks,
Hero bets 5 BB,
BB calls 5 BB,
fold
River: (19.4 BB, 2 players) K
BB checks,
Hero bets 14 BB,
BB raises to 31 BB,
Hero raises to 98.88 BB and is all-in,
BB calls 67.88 BB and is all-in
Hero shows A
J
(Flush, Ace High)
BB shows Q
2
(Full House, Twos full of Queens)
BB wins 209.16 BB
Five, I thought I would try for max value vs an overpair.
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 205 BB
SB: 91.56 BB
Hero (BB): 106.36 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 265.92 BB
CO: 343.28 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB,
Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q
9
fold,
MP raises to 2.48 BB,
fold,
fold,
fold,
Hero calls 1.48 BB
Flop: (5.36 BB, 2 players) 9
9
3
Hero checks,
MP bets 1.84 BB,
Hero calls 1.84 BB
Turn: (9.04 BB, 2 players) J
Hero checks,
MP bets 4.48 BB,
Hero raises to 16.08 BB,
MP calls 11.6 BB
River: (41.2 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero bets 85.96 BB and is all-in,
MP calls 85.96 BB
Hero shows Q
9
(Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 32%, Flop 91%, Turn 2%)
MP shows J
J
(Full House, Jacks full of Nines)
(Pre 68%, Flop 9%, Turn 98%)
MP wins 205.12 BB
Six, SB vs CO this seems standard? Or flat here?
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 268.84 BB
Hero (SB): 101 BB
BB: 145.12 BB
UTG: 124.16 BB
MP: 126.04 BB
CO: 126.96 BB
Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A
K
fold,
fold,
CO raises to 2.2 BB,
fold,
Hero raises to 11 BB,
fold,
CO raises to 25 BB,
Hero raises to 101 BB and is all-in,
CO calls 76 BB
Flop: (203 BB, 2 players) 2
8
J
Turn: (203 BB, 2 players) 9
River: (203 BB, 2 players) J
Players agreed to run it twice.
Flop #2: (203 BB, 2 players) T
5
K
Turn #2: (203 BB, 2 players) 3
River #2: (203 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero shows A
K
(One Pair, Jacks)
Board #1 (Pre 7%, Flop 6%, Turn 0%)
(One Pair, Kings)
Board #2 (Pre 6%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)
CO shows A
A
(Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
Board #1 (Pre 93%, Flop 94%, Turn 100%)
(One Pair, Aces)
Board #2 (Pre 94%, Flop 90%, Turn 95%)
CO wins 97.52 BB
CO wins 97.48 BB
Seven, I would rather jam tptk OTT with 75% pot left than let his flushes or straights get in.
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 108.72 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 299.28 BB
UTG: 144.28 BB
MP: 175.48 BB
CO: 100 BB
Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K
A
fold,
fold,
CO raises to 2.48 BB,
BTN raises to 8 BB,
Hero raises to 23 BB,
fold,
fold,
BTN calls 15 BB
Flop: (49.48 BB, 2 players) 2
J
A
Hero bets 15.76 BB,
BTN calls 15.76 BB
Turn: (81 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero bets 61.24 BB and is all-in,
BTN calls 61.24 BB
River: (203.48 BB, 2 players) K
Players agreed to run it twice.
River #2: (203.48 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero shows K
A
(Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
Board #1 (Pre 43%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
(Two Pair, Aces and Twos)
Board #2 (Pre 39%, Flop 7%, Turn 5%)
BTN shows J
J
(Full House, Jacks full of Twos)
Board #1 (Pre 57%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
(Full House, Jacks full of Twos)
Board #2 (Pre 61%, Flop 93%, Turn 95%)
BTN wins 97.76 BB
BTN wins 97.72 BB
Seven, seems like a standard spot?
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 101.6 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 125.6 BB
UTG: 69.32 BB
MP: 321.32 BB
CO: 87.4 BB
Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q
Q
fold,
fold,
fold,
BTN raises to 3 BB,
Hero raises to 11 BB,
fold,
BTN raises to 24 BB,
Hero raises to 100 BB and is all-in,
BTN calls 76 BB
Flop: (201 BB, 2 players) 4
5
5
Turn: (201 BB, 2 players) 6
River: (201 BB, 2 players) K
Hero shows Q
Q
(Two Pair, Queens and Fives)
(Pre 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
BTN shows A
A
(Two Pair, Aces and Fives)
(Pre 82%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
BTN wins 193 BB
Eight, I would usually 4bet/fold here, but my read from 10z was that when people snap 5bet jam (like he did) it is AK trying to project strength so I called. Maybe this can be avoided?
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 97.12 BB
SB: 325.2 BB
BB: 104.88 BB
UTG: 194.96 BB
Hero (MP): 109.28 BB
CO: 103 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J
J
fold,
Hero raises to 2.52 BB,
fold,
BTN raises to 8 BB,
fold,
fold,
Hero raises to 23 BB,
BTN raises to 97.12 BB and is all-in,
Hero calls 74.12 BB
Flop: (195.64 BB, 2 players) Q
8
7
Turn: (195.64 BB, 2 players) 9
River: (195.64 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero shows J
J
(One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 19%, Flop 14%, Turn 32%)
BTN shows A
A
(One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 81%, Flop 86%, Turn 68%)
BTN wins 187.64 BB
Nine, guy is a known whale. He will have sets here a bunch but I think I gotta call. Blockers huh
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 4.04 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 118.52 BB
MP: 96.8 BB
CO: 110.88 BB
Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K
K
fold,
MP raises to 3.4 BB,
fold,
fold,
Hero raises to 12 BB, BB calls 11 BB,
MP calls 8.6 BB
Flop: (36 BB, 3 players) J
5
7
Hero bets 16 BB,
fold,
MP raises to 84.8 BB and is all-in,
Hero calls 68.8 BB
Turn: (205.6 BB, 2 players) 8
River: (205.6 BB, 2 players) J
Hero shows K
K
(Two Pair, Kings and Jacks)
(Pre 83%, Flop 55%, Turn 16%)
MP shows 3
7
(Flush, Jack High)
(Pre 17%, Flop 45%, Turn 84%)
MP wins 197.6 BB
Ten, okay this might be a punt. My gut told me he had AA, but this line is odd and I called. Hard for him to have flushes.
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 113.96 BB
SB: 112.6 BB
BB: 466.44 BB
UTG: 96.64 BB
MP: 224.64 BB
Hero (CO): 101 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A
J
UTG raises to 3 BB,
fold,
Hero raises to 9 BB,
fold,
fold,
fold,
UTG raises to 20 BB,
Hero calls 11 BB
Flop: (41.4 BB, 2 players) K
A
7
UTG checks,
Hero checks
Turn: (41.4 BB, 2 players) 3
UTG bets 16.6 BB,
Hero calls 16.6 BB
River: (74.6 BB, 2 players) 9
UTG bets 47 BB,
Hero calls 47 BB
UTG shows K
K
(Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 68%, Flop 97%, Turn 100%)
Hero mucks A
J
(One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 32%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)
UTG wins 161 BB
ANDDDDDDD That's all. Please feel free to be as critical as you want. A couple here might be bad play but in my eyes I'm running bad. But maybe I'm not, and I'm losing money by always have a strategy of getting in QQ+, AKo preflop at 25z. And to be fair, I checked to see how many times I've coolered people and won stacks this month. I coolered one dude by rivering a straight when he hit a set, but other than that no real "coolers". I also haven't won a single stack AIPF.
Anyway, I hate to be the guy bitching about runbad, but I'm not sure if I'm running bad or I'm, lying to myself about bad play. Other than a couple sessions I've been super happy with my redline and overall play. Just losing a lot on blueline, especially a ton of 5-8 outers OTR for like 10-15bb pots.
Regardless, I'm taking a 12BI shot. If I hit 12BI loss, I'll move down for the rest of the month. I'll consider depositing and taking another shot at 25z to begin May if I decide with my coaches/study group that I can compete up here.