Ah, comprender. Yeah sounds well thought through.

EDIT: didn't see your edits before quoting you. I thought you said that OP wouldn't lose much EV or any at all if he folded all his best pure bluffcatchers.

I would disagree until someone shows me some data. People always have an opinion on it but never backs it up with data, actually never seen data on it. I just have a hard time believing that random <50nl players don't bluff enough barreling OTR when there are natural bluffs in big pots. They usually bet less than pot which means you have to be right ~30% of the time to break even with your best bluffcatchers (not the ones that beat some value). I'm overfolding when there aren't enough natural bluffs, but not as much in spots where there obviously are. Which is what we are talking about.

Not saying this to attack you obviously. I'm just curious if anyone has any type of analysis with a short summary of how it was done and what the results were. I need something else than someone feeling they lost most of the time when calling a big river bet, which they should, about ~70% of the time.

Yes, apologies if it was unclear in my original post. I wasn't trying to imply OP should fold all his bluffcatchers. I meant if he only called with the nut bluffcatching combos and overfolded the rest I don't think he'd lose much EV or get exploited for it.

WRT the second part of you post: unfortunately I lost my old DB, but I did look over these spots before and noticed I wasn't breaking even on my bluffcatches even though I was undercalling compared to equilibrium. It's true that you often only need ~30% in theory, but with the rake being so high and people severely underbluffing in many scenarios, I don't think it's profitable in the long run in most spots.

I think it is a fair point to want to see numbers. However, you recently came up through the 10z-50z pools, how much bluffing did you find people (specifically good regs) to be doing?

No worries. I edit my posts all the time too, wonder why I'm not banned yet.

Just curious, how did you do the analysis and how did you figure out if you broke even or not? If you look at the bb/100 it will be a big fat red number because you should lose the pot most of the time with your bluffcachers. Can only look at the % won (unless there is way to find out how profitable your river calls are in $ won or bb/100 on the river call)

I did a small pool analysis by making a big fat alias in HEM on 10-25z, after some better players that had climbed the stakes said don't overdo the overfolding. Obviously not a big sample, and I don't have it on my new PC, so I can't prove anything myself either. I don't remember if I made a post about it on my PG&C, but it might be there. But I remember people bluffed a fair amount based on it, and decided to bluffcatch more vs unknowns. Obviously still overfolding but not overdoing it.

Do you have stats over a bigger sample? Would be interested to see call river bet %, call river cbet %, won when calling river cbet % and similar :-)

I have 100k hands from 5z and 10z this year. I can try and create a PT4 alias and see what I can find out. Might be too small of a sample though.

Don't have to make an alias. Just show as big of a sample you feel is accurate enough for how you've been playing rivers, and add some of those stats I mentioned. If you want. Would be interesting though

I created a report for all my zoom hands this year (5z, 10z without and without antes) and added some river stats. I don't know how to interpret the river stuff well tbh.

I think I was losing because I had a bunch of mental game issues, but I fixed most of those in early November, and I have a really solid mental game now. Daily/presession meditation and a structured routine helps a ton.





I'd like too:
-Get VPIP/PFR up to 22-24/18-20
- get WWSF consistently over 50%
- AF above 2.5 over a good sample
- Improve blinds lossrate

40% rakeback exclusive poker challenge is back. $80 for $200 in rake, I have 28 days to complete it. I calculated it out and I need 32k hands, which is doable in just over a month.

Hey everyone! Merry Christmas! I hope things are well.

I've been grinding away, still working on aggression and redline. The last couple sessions I've felt like I'm getting redlined alot in 3bet pots, where I bet or call flop and the end up folding, often losing 20-40bbs. Here is an example, which I ran through GTOWizard, and I was suprised that it is mostly shoving anything it continues OTT. I've looked at a few other 3bet spots, and I'm shocked how aggro it can be.


PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 ($0.01 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $69.49 (695 bb)
MP: $7.30 (73 bb)
CO (Hero): $10.14 (101 bb)
BU: $10.04 (100 bb)
SB: $13.14 (131 bb)
BB: $14.59 (146 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.21) Hero is CO with T♥ 9♥
2 players fold, Hero raises to $0.27, 1 fold, SB 3-bets to $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.73

Flop: ($2.16) 8♣ 2♦ T♠ (2 players)
SB bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.56) J♣ (2 players)
SB bets $3, CO (Hero) folds

Total pot: $4.56 (Rake: $0.21)
SB wins $4.35

I mean yeah. That's a terribly nitty fold imo.

subbed

glgl

Yeah I think spots like that in 3bet pots are killing me.

Also have to post the dream spot. First time for me.

Another nitty spot. Should probably just have 4bet this pre, but it is a low frequency call and BB was unknown. However, is this too tight post? GTOWiz says call turn

PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 ($0.01 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $16.65 (167 bb)
MP: $5.39 (54 bb)
CO (Hero): $10.77 (108 bb)
BU: $18.05 (181 bb)
SB: $10.20 (102 bb)
BB: $12.28 (123 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.21) Hero is CO with Q♥ Q♣
2 players fold, Hero raises to $0.27, 2 players fold, BB 3-bets to $1.10, Hero calls $0.83

Flop: ($2.31) T♥ T♣ 6♠ (2 players)
BB bets $1.11, Hero calls $1.11

Turn: ($4.53) K♦ (2 players)
BB bets $2, CO (Hero) folds

Total pot: $4.53 (Rake: $0.20)
BB wins $4.33

Most regs will bet the K OTT at high frequency, so QQ in position with the suits you have is an easy call.

From preflop charts I have QQ is flatting that exact spot 88% of the time pre

Pretty sure turn for that sizing in a mandatory call

Hand from yesterday. GTOWizard mixes my combo on this turn and doesn't like jamming, but I honestly think jamming is okay here to get a bunch of folds from his 2 overcard hands. Maybe he will also fold some JJ and TT? I think villain was a weakish reg that calls 3bets a bit wide. Is this bad or did I just run into the nuts?

PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 ($0.01 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $13.41 (134 bb)
MP: $11.54 (115 bb)
CO: $17.96 (180 bb)
BU: $9.68 (97 bb)
SB (Hero): $10.00 (100 bb)
BB: $14.31 (143 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.21) Hero is SB with T♥ J♥
1 fold, MP raises to $0.30, 2 players fold, Hero 3-bets to $1.10, 1 fold, MP calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.36) 7♦ 4♥ 9♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, MP calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.36) Q♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $7.39 (all-in), MP calls $7.39

River: ($20.14) 5♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $20.14 (Rake: $0.91)

Hey man. Sorry for not responding to your river stats earlier.

I think your stats might be fine. Your OOP/IP river call stats might look very low but gotta remember that you also raise river ~9-15% of the time so your river defend will be close to 50% anyway which is fine, and it can be a bit lower than 50% too because we should overfold slightly/greatly. Take a look at your river raising stats too, but easiest to look at fold% stats, because then you see how much you defend because the call% stats only show calls and not full defend frequency. I think defending in total less than 40% is not defending enough, and maybe ~43-50% is more optimal at these stakes. Your earlier small sample might just have been variance and your RCE is probably not close to 2 in reality.

Your biggest leak might just be you not being aggro enough in spots where you should be, and you're clearly working on it which is good. Being aggressive enough is the hardest part about poker, so give it time.

GL!

EDIT: I actually don't think AF has to be over 2.5, neither do you have to have a WWSF over 50%. Just focus on finding correct bluffs and valuebets and the stats will correct themselves :-)

I like the sizings and JThh is probably a decent combo to have in your turn shove range on this runout. I'm 99% sure jamming turn is a thing with 2 FD's and a lot of SD's out there. You can have some more nut FD's in your turn x/c or x/r range and just ship combodraws. If you were in position I guess good draws are checked back some decent frequency to realize equity, but the Q is better for you so we shouldn't check much overall.

Thanks for your thoughts on the hand Ship. Glad to see I'm not alone in thinking that it is a good jam despite the solver disagreeing.

Thanks for your thoughts on my stats. I'm going to keep working on my redline/aggression because I feel like being a weaktight nit is the biggest leak in my game. I don't tilt much after having worked hard on my mental game, and I haven't encountered much variance, so I think it just has to be my style that is the issue.

I think you get it in but at the micros imo you won't get exploited by folding here

As played ip call imo

Last hand I think is a good jam...

For redline, less tables helps a lot in my experience, since you pay more attention to spots? For me 2 zoom is the sweet spot now