I appreciate all the thoughts and opinions guys!
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobbyPeru
I definitely agree with you @Ceres about building a solid winning strategy and having the proof to back it up but the issue here is the game format, rake and time commitment. We all know zoom has lower WRs. Let's say Trust has a very nice wr of 5bb/100 so he would win $500 for every 100k hands. That's pretty good but Trust only played 25k hands last month. If that is his average pace it will take him 4 months to reach that. 8 months to hit $1k. Almost a whole year grinding 10z before he can move up. For a 5bb/100 winner! Unless poker is just a fun hobby to unwind like say video games than that is just way too much time for a serious player to be playing for pennies.
The best way out of low stakes is positive wr plus professional player level of volume or to start at 25nl or preferably 50nl if you can afford it. Of course this all moot if your mental game is trash than you will always be a loser.
In OP March recap he said he has 90bi so $900 which is 36bi for 25z. More than enough for a non professional trying to move up aggressively which should be all of our goals if poker is more than just a hobby to us.
Yeah, I kind of agree with this mindset that you and Shelly seem to be advocating for. I think it makes sense to get to 25z as fast as possible, and not wait around at 10z. Like you indicated, if I was grinding the BI to shot 25z at 10z, it could be 2-3 months of 10z to get a 5-10BI shot, assuming I run good without losing months.
I am lucky though that I can comfortably afford to take a 10-12BI shot each month and lose it without it really impacting me financially (atleast until Aug/Sept when I'll probably get a vax, move out and start paying Toronto rent, which won't allow me to save 60-80% of my income each month like now) so I think it makes sense to try and get to 25z and stay there while I can.
Admittedly, I don't have a huge crushing sample at 10z this calendar year (got some mentoring in Jan/Feb and have made significant changes to my game this year, so I'm ignoring my losing months in late 2020), as I'm only winning at 1.7bb/100 in 60k hands. However, I'm working more and more on my game, and I think that will only go up. I think my real WR right now at 10z is probably 2bb-6bb/100, though I'm cognizant that low WRs are subject to a ton of variance and take a ton of time to become clear.
While I may not be "crushing" 10z, even though I ran bad in my shot at 25z, it honestly felt softer. While the solid good regs (of whom there are more) were better, the fish:reg ratio felt better than 10z, atleast at some evening EST times. I think my WR at 25z and 10z are probably similar.
Plus, another consideration is that I can clear the 40% rakeback challenges much faster and easier at 25z (even just 2 tabling) without grinding hard at all. I can do it twice in a month while 2-tabling, even playing 75% of my normal 10z volume. If play an average of 25k hands a month there, I can do it twice for $160 rakeback. That's (if my math is correct) 2.4bb/100 in rakeback, making it that much easier for me to beat the stake.
Even if I can basically be BE/marginally winning at 25z, I think it makes more sense to try and stay up there rather than play 10z. As Bobby said, I could end up at 10z for many more months if I am patient and wait for a crushing sample.
Especially given that basically my ultimate goal online is to beat 25z. I'll be happy and call this completed once I have a trailing 100k sample with an evbb of 3bb/100+.
Though, that isn't to say I'm quitting then, just that once I hit that goal, I'll reevaluate what I want to do in poker, and decide whether I want to move up more at zoom, play MTTs/SNGs or move to a soft site and collect money at reg tables. Ideally though I'm hoping once I finally beat 25z, COVID will be over, and I can turn my attention/volume to live and hope to making a decent sideincome with a live grinding hobby, using zoom to sharpen the saw so to speak.
Assuming things go well at 10z this month, I'll probably redeposit at 25z for May.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trippy_P
I don't understand why ppl need to take shots in the old fashioned way and only play the higher stake, in this case 25z till they bust their "shot".
Just play 2 tables 10z and add one table 25z or something, lower variance way to ease in to a new stake imo.
I just can't do this, some kind of mental block, the idea is just really yucky to me. All of one stake/site/pool at a time for me.