Thanks Brokenstars, really appreciate your thoughts!

The one thing everyone seems to be saying is not to be so loose preflop, so I'm going to work on eliminating my loose opens, especially from mp and co.

Also will try to be a bit more aggressive postflop, especially continuing on turns and attacking checks.

I'll see how my ft3b looks when opening tighter. I think 60%ish should be a target.

Before you just eliminate your opens, take a look at your steal success rates from the later positions.

In positions like MP/EP even vs. pretty nitty opponents I doubt you'd gain much EV with your looser opens, but those looser opens in later positions can be generating quite a bit of EV if people are overfolding.

Can you list your steal success from SB, BTN, CO and your RFI sizings?

I will definitely take a look but off the top of my head I'm not sure how to check that for non bu and sb positions in PT4.

Just go to positional ribbon and add stat "steal success"

^^^ I think that’s really solid advice fwiw. I tend to only open 0 EV type stuff in EP/MP if the entire table is mostly nits that I have samples on, but from CO/BTN I almost always open the 0 EV stuff unless there’s super aggro players behind.

SB: 50.42%
BTN: 46.17%
CO: 42.32%


Don't know what to make of those numbers though. Any insight?

need to know your rfi sizings

With those number you can compute the risk reward. For example, if you open to 3bb in SB, from what percentage of fold to steal do you make an immediat profit?

breakeven % = RISK / (RISK+REWARD)

When you open 3bb in SB, you put 2,5bb in the pot to win 1bb+0,5bb = 1,5bb so the RR is 2,5 / (2,5+1,5) = 0,625. This means that if villain folds his BB more than 62.5% of the time, you make an immediate profit even if when you are called, you check fold 100%. If your open your SB 2,5bb, you make an immediat profit if BB fold more than +-57% of the time. Not to mention that you still have equity and playability postflop.

I know players who fold more than these figures, against them, I open my SB 100% of the time because I make an auto profit (until they prove to me that they can adapt). If you do 1-risk reward, you get the minimum defense frequency to prevent villain from making an immediate profit and exploiting you.

CO 2.3
BU 2.3
SB 3

steal would only be a bit higher than vs proper defends... people likely under 3b tho so you over realize equity due to that.

other stats relevant to how wide you might want to open pre is how often they fold flop/turn/river... so if your cbet succ otf/ott/otr vs 1 opponent is high in these nodes can also have impact on profitably of how wide you might open.

as a default I'd probably just open the ~0ev hands with those steal successes. Might open 45-50% in sb, something like 45-47% otb, ~30% co etc. If you're making mistakes postflop any edge you might have with these marginal opens is immediately negated though.

delete duplicate

Thank you. That makes sense.

Do you think that there is an issue with my F3b being too high?

I am cognizant of the fact that at face value it appears to be quite high (typically 60 to 70% monthly) but I try to be very exploitative in my decision to react to being 3bet.

Versus people who I have enough hands on them too see that they are fish, I will continue quite tight, only calling stuff like the low mixed suited connectors and pocket pairs in spots where I am in position and/or they have made it a small size versus most standard ranges.

Versus most regs I try to be a bit less exploitative, but still try to generalize based on any reads I have on them and putting some of their hud stats together to get a picture of how they play, and thus use that information to inform myself on how to continue.

Overall I find that it's very player dependent within the pool, there's some regs who have 6-800 hands on who are three betting 13%, and others who are three betting 4%. So I try to play every spot against the player.

post positional ribbon with RFI, fold to 3b after raise, and fold to 3b after raise ip, and fold to 3b after raise oop

These are my stats at 10z in the fall:



and 25z this january:



Note that the $ amount there is just my results at the stake during that period, not in 3b spots.

thoughts?

I was opening a lot looser preflop at 10z, even trying to steal sometimes from EP and MP if I thought the table was nitty. I've cut most of that out after the discussions in that thread, now trying to steal only from CO-SB.

You're ridiculously too wide... Hard to talk about fold to 3b stats when you're opening 27-29% in MP

Like I indicated previously, I have been trying to steal from MP if there are nits behind. Most of the GTOWizard ranges are 21-24% from MP.

Granted im not playing wider than these ranges generally, only against certain tables.

Based on your previous comments, I am assuming I should stop and only steal from CO?

I really doubt you're doing it correct if your average value is 27-29%. I'm rarely ever opening that wide out of MP and it's only in specific circumstances. If your average value is 27-29% and you are "normally" opening ~21-24%, then that would mean if both circumstances happened at equal frequencies you'd be opening ~30%+ half the time which is basically never going to be good.

A solid MP RFI is around 20-22% in my opinion. If you removed all mixed or ~0ev hands its probably around a 17-19% rfi. If you include all the mixed frequencies its like 25-27%. Because the EV of all your hands is generally going to be lower in earlier position (MP/UTG) you need more reasons/data to be opening wider. They are just naturally lower EV and you also have more people to interact with after you open. In SB/BTN I think you can make very large deviations, but in MP/EP, even when exploiting people those deviations are pretty minor in like 99% of circumstances.

It looks like you might be overestimating your perceived edge/exploit and overadjusting.
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I'd recommend just playing relatively solid ranges until you start getting a decent win rate. That and if you do feel you have reason to exploit, then do so in the most obvious/best circumstances when there are fish in the blinds or you are in later positions (SB/BTN/CO).

Did you know that bottom of ranges only produce close to b/e winrate if you play them perfectly?

They are bottom of range for a reason...they were never meant to turn 3bb winners into 6bb crushers.

This entire conversation is just a waste of time. Going from 19% mp open to 24% is not going to help you AT ALL. You will never get a large enough sample to test this anyway bc you should be moving up and now all the calcs will change bc regs defend better/3b more/less fish anyway the higher your limit is

What will help you more is learning how to maximize profit with top of your range.

brokenstars is correct in that deviations matter more in wider formations (btn/sb) but even then if youre not playing well postflop youre actually just b/e at best with those wider ranges

Are you suggesting population is playing as well as a solver? People always seem to forget this statement goes both ways.

It’s really not a waste of time. It’s actually the foundation you build your entire postflop game on to play preflop correctly.

You don’t willy nilly throw together pre without being critical of your ranges and learn solid postflop play, so how can preflop fundamentals be a time waste?

I think he means opening wide from EP as an exploit is a waste of time. I would have to agree.

just open a bit wider in ep/mp if bb is an obvious 30vpip+ type fish
going from like 15% ep rfi to 18%

open a bit wider in co if btn is a super nit 16/14 4% type like 24% rfi to 30% maybe 33% max if bb is fish too

40% btn rfi can move to 65% or higher w/the right conditions

My last 700,000 hands I open 55% in sb and bottom of ranges still produce better than losing -50bb/100 by folding but vs high 3b regs/fish I just open normal. Imo opening 65% is still fine sometimes - (or limping if they dont iso you) many fish/nits 3b less than 4% so you almost always see a flop. K4o/T2s still realize equity better than folding if it never gets denied pre.

Hmm thanks for this. I do agree, I will cut down on this from mp and ep and focus on playing solid ranges and keep the steals to later positions.

In hindsight as exciting as it was to see my 85s utg steal get through a table of nits, it probably wasn't a good idea.

Ahhhh my bad. Yes, that part I definitely agree with.
Opening 85s even against a table of nitfish cannot be good I am very sure.

Carry on.

If we wanted to mix in some low frequency 0EV hands from EP/MP.

Is there any difference or benefit to opening a hand like 44 over a hand like 76s?