This is surprising but AKo/QQ are folds here. I got stuck in the cooler mentality again, it's hard to break.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($30.35) [VPIP: 27.7% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.6% | Hands: 73769]
SB ($41.59) [VPIP: 19.8% | PFR: 13.4% | AGG: 21.7% | Hands: 425]
BB ($66.22) [VPIP: 40% | PFR: 40% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 5]
UTG ($21.40) [VPIP: 41.9% | PFR: 29% | AGG: 54.5% | Hands: 31]
HJ ($26) [VPIP: 25.5% | PFR: 22.5% | AGG: 61.3% | Hands: 103]
CO ($25) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 19.2% | AGG: 20% | Hands: 347]

Dealt to Hero: Q Q

UTG Raises To $0.70, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $2.25, HERO Raises To $4.50, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Folds, CO Raises To $25 (allin), HERO Calls $20.50

Flop ($51.05): 2 4 A

Turn ($51.05): 2 4 A A

River ($51.05): 2 4 A A 8

There is a fundamental difference between these two runouts.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25) [VPIP: 21.2% | PFR: 18.5% | AGG: 39.7% | Hands: 1299]
SB ($34.23) [VPIP: 23.4% | PFR: 21.9% | AGG: 28.1% | Hands: 129]
BB ($30.26) [VPIP: 30.4% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 42.9% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 40% | Hands: 9]
UTG ($27.42) [VPIP: 16.1% | PFR: 12.9% | AGG: 30.8% | Hands: 65]
HJ ($37.71) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 8.3% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 12]
HERO ($30) [VPIP: 27.7% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.6% | Flop Agg: 43.9% | Turn Agg: 36.1% | River Agg: 40.8% | 3Bet: 10.2% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 73827]

Dealt to Hero: K Q

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.55, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.30

Hero SPR on Flop: [24.54 effective]
Flop ($1.20): 6 9 K
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($1.20): 6 9 K A
BB Bets $0.82 (Rem. Stack: $28.89), HERO Calls $0.82 (Rem. Stack: $28.63)

River ($2.84): 6 9 K A Q
BB Bets $3.95 (Rem. Stack: $24.94), HERO Calls $3.95 (Rem. Stack: $24.68)



Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25) [VPIP: 21.2% | PFR: 18.5% | AGG: 39.7% | Hands: 1299]
SB ($34.23) [VPIP: 23.4% | PFR: 21.9% | AGG: 28.1% | Hands: 129]
BB ($30.26) [VPIP: 30.4% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 42.9% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 40% | Hands: 9]
UTG ($27.42) [VPIP: 16.1% | PFR: 12.9% | AGG: 30.8% | Hands: 65]
HJ ($37.71) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 8.3% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 12]
HERO ($30) [VPIP: 27.7% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.6% | Flop Agg: 43.9% | Turn Agg: 36.1% | River Agg: 40.8% | 3Bet: 10.2% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 73827]

Dealt to Hero: K Q

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.55, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.30

Hero SPR on Flop: [24.54 effective]
Flop ($1.20): 6 9 K
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($1.20): 6 9 K A
BB Bets $0.82 (Rem. Stack: $28.89), HERO Calls $0.82 (Rem. Stack: $28.63)

River ($2.84): 6 9 K A Q
BB Bets $3.95 (Rem. Stack: $24.94), HERO Calls $3.95 (Rem. Stack: $24.68)



2tone board FD---->River complete Flush is weaker

than Rainbow board turn FD----->River complete Flush

It's not close: MDA here



Data point #2.

Always look at turn sizing plus river sizing. In this formation X-B70-B we need to figure out the theoretical %'s and then how often population is actually bluffing.

B100 = 33% bluffs
B120 = 35% bluffs
B150 = 37.5% bluffs

What is population doing in the aggregate?

hmm. Trying to think of why:

- there might be a prevceived credibility issue with rainbow backdoors that might spook a potential river punt

- BB has the same range in both scenarios but techincally more FDs on rainbow

- It is fractionally more obvious to bluff a turn overcard with a backdoor FD than a frontdoor FD (not sure about this one)

I'd say you are overthinking it.

I don't think it has anything to do with BB's range, instead BB thinks IP will mostly (always!) bet FD's OTF so when they get to the X-C-River node on flush completes IP won't have many Flushes and BB thinks they can get overfolds. Which incentivizes them to over bluff.

The same isn't true for BD flush completes.

What a lot of people don't realize is that a lot of 50 and 100 regs also play 25B.

And when 200B isn't running I've also seen some 200regs in the pool.

Is this a standard jam at 100bbs vs population even if they are under 4betting ip? I tend to puss out w A5s in btn vs blinds 4bet spots vs unknown who is likely tighter preflop in this pool

Yeah good point.

I know you played a lot of 200b, I'd be curious on your general thought's on the pool.

Also, what winrates are achievable in the 200b pool and also the 25pool in your opinion?

I think it's standard.

The better regs do the opposite, they over 4bet because they know it's overfolded. If he is a good reg it's possible we are exploiting him by jamming.

It's too big of a deviation to fold against an unknown and calling will be a bit worse than theory since BTN is not going to have all those 55-99 hands, they are pulling bluffs from hands like ATo/AJo and those dominate you.

Solver hates it, I like it. What do you think?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($39.02) [VPIP: 27.7% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.6% | Flop Agg: 43.8% | Turn Agg: 36.1% | River Agg: 40.9% | 3Bet: 10.2% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Cold Call: 9.5% | Hands: 74127]
SB ($17.10) [VPIP: 22% | PFR: 9.8% | AGG: 10% | Hands: 41]
BB ($28.93) [VPIP: 12.5% | PFR: 7.5% | AGG: 13.6% | Hands: 123]
UTG ($94.32) [VPIP: 17.6% | PFR: 17.6% | AGG: 66.7% | Flop Agg: 66.7% | Turn Agg: 66.7% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 17]
HJ ($43.28) [VPIP: 20.6% | PFR: 15.9% | AGG: 52.2% | Hands: 108]
CO ($30.62) [VPIP: 22.8% | PFR: 18.5% | AGG: 38.5% | Hands: 92]

Dealt to Hero: Q J

UTG Raises To $0.50, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Calls $0.50, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [28.53 effective]
Flop ($1.35): 3 J K
UTG Bets $0.32 (Rem. Stack: $93.50), HERO Calls $0.32 (Rem. Stack: $38.20)

Turn ($1.99): 3 J K Q
UTG Bets $2.62 (Rem. Stack: $90.88), HERO Calls $2.62 (Rem. Stack: $35.58)

River ($7.23): 3 J K Q 9
UTG Bets $5.15 (Rem. Stack: $85.73), HERO Raises To $35.58 (allin)

vs 25nl population, I guess it's fine. A thinking player will know you don't have many flushes here, and you only rep a flush, but it is nearly impossible for a random 25nl player to have a bluff here, too. I am probably just folding turn, though.

I think most regs will range bet flop and arrive to the river with nearly all the Axss, whereas we will fold most of them on the flop, so I think it's a pretty big punt.

Edit: Now that I think about it, the size down on the river does look a little bit weak so if you were basing this off a sizing tell on the river it might not be bad

Seems like an overfold spot rather than an overbluff spot. Our MDA EV vs this bet generated from OOP's bluff scarcity (range v range) yes? Hyper nutted runout, and a mildly underbluffed line from a reg (betsize)..so does it outperform overfolding tons of BCs?? idk.

Good properties for this combo being no heart and straight but the flush is the holy grail so might require extra blocker pressure. So much depends on reg response too. Do they fold sets? If so, we'd rather not be blocking them. Plus, flushes. Lots of flushes imo

Very ballzy bluff, respect the heart I never find this in game without a flush blocker haha.

The play probably works vs better regs since they will have more bluffs and thinner value (bet folds) on a underbluffed river board texture, vs weaker players I’m very hesitant to bluff into a nutted range with less autofolds.

Yeah folding turn seems fine too. I go back and forth on it because population is leaking in river nodes but the turn bet is stronger than it should be.

A good heuristic I've been using is the lower the W$WSF the more I bluff them. I think there is a strong correlation between bluffing and bluff catching so if they bluff less on average they will over fold vs bluffs more on average.

Thankfully it got through and I'm pretty sure UTG folded Tx and possibly AT.

Your reasoning is why I think calling turn is a little bit better than folding.

I'd say the better the player the worse this bluff is, a lot of flushes are blocked by the board but OTOH you have to think I turn 2 pair into a bluff to call here or just have AsTx and block all value.

I agree nits that underbluff will overfold to bluffs but I think mainly because they leave their checking ranges weaker which lets us overbluff them in those nodes where they check turn/river, vs continued aggression I think bluff raising them is arguably a bit worse on average since their ranges are stronger, but still a bit player dependent I think there are some nits in the pool that are capable of making very tight folds even when their ranges are very strong (not enough data to confirm obviously). I'm pretty interested though in seeing how often these river bluff raises work against continued aggression from this player type.

Not sure about 25 but I'm sure it's probably like 15bb+

I think the best regs in 200B are Biluzin DesertEagle21 and Nizza.

So based on that probably around 8bb is achievable.

I think overall it's a decent pool. Some of the fish are quite bad and a lot of the regs have their quirks that you can take advantage of.

SmokinFrogs is the top mid stakes reg I think, but I don't remember really seeing him in the 200B pool.

no shot we’re folding any backdoor nut flush draw vs 25% pot here

? Yes we are, it's UTG vs BB ?

I would still err on the side of being aggressive as a default. So in this hand, if he called me with Tx or ATo no spade I'd make a note not to bluff him in the future when his hand is face up. He tanked folded so it's likely he folded a straight.

The player type of being a nit but not folding postflop with high absolute value hands is a huge live archetype but I don't see it as much online.

I don't think anyone thinking will call you without the nuts (AsTx basically is), you rep a lot of value and I can't think of a single natural bluff combo unless you float turn with AQo

My problem with jam is you're targeting a narrow range of bluff catchers against a range that probably has not nearly enough bluffs. Honestly I'd be surprised if jam was +EV even if they folded 100% of their bluff catchers

Online it's usually not going thin enough which makes it really hard for them to overfold to raises in some spots.

I played a hand a couple days ago vs by far the biggest nit on Global where I went XC flop, XR a turned straight and 2x pot jam river. They snapped with like 3rd set and then started complaining in chat lol. Vs a normal nit I'd size down expecting them to overfold a lot but this guy does stuff like limp pre and cold call 3-bets so I assumed they were closer to the live archetype.

It's the sizing structure for me. If you OB turn and the nuts change OTR you are probably overfolding.

Do I really rep a lot of value though? I rep single digits combos

Big difference between straights and flushes imo.

When a flush hits OTR it's harder to get value because it's so obvious, the only straights that are obvious are the 4 liners.